Wondering About Retirement Income presentation by KJH Financial Services
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This document discusses asset allocation strategies before and after retirement. It notes that before retirement the focus is on accumulation and growth, while after retirement the focus shifts to income disbursement and managing risks like withdrawals, spending, market volatility, longevity, inflation, and savings shortfalls. The document also provides statistics on life expectancy, sources of retirement income, the strain on Social Security from fewer workers per retiree, the effects of inflation, how sequence of returns can impact portfolios, and how simulation can show the probability of meeting income needs in retirement under different withdrawal rates and portfolio allocations.
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Wondering About Retirement Income presentation by KJH Financial Services
- 1. Wondering About Retirement Income KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES
- 2. Then and Now Asset allocation before and after retirement Before retirement Accumulation Long-term growth Current savings Time to recover Tax-deferred growth KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES After retirement Disbursement Long-term growth Current income Downturns immediately felt Minimum required distributions Taxes
- 3. Retirees Face Numerous Risks KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES Withdrawals What rate is sustainable? Sequencing by tax bracket Managing RMDs Retirement income Retiree spending Replacement ratio Essential versus lifestyle expenses Medical expenses Market volatility Uncertain returns and income Impact of point in time Asset allocation and location Longevity Long retirement horizons— a couple aged 65 has 25% chance of a survivor living to age 96 Solvency Pension plans and retiree benefits—a thing of the past Social Security and Medicare Savings Under-funded defined contribution accounts Most Americans have an enormous savings gap Inflation Erodes the value of savings and reduces returns Health care inflation 5%
- 4. Retirees Should Plan for a Long Retirement Probability of a 65-year-old living to various ages 78 81 86 Source: Annuity 2000 Mortality Tables. KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES 100% 75 50 25 0 • Male • Female • At least one spouse 85 91 91 96 88 93 65 years old 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105
- 5. Personal Savings Expected to Play a Larger Role in Retirement Survey of retirement income sources 80 80% Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, 2008 Retirement Confidence Survey. KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES 100% 60 40 20 0 94% 74% 36% 73% 48% 69% 34% 59% 53% Social Security Employer-sponsored retirement savings plan (ex. 401k) Other personal savings/investments Individual Retirement Account (IRA) Employer-provided traditional pension plan • Workers (Expected) • Retirees (Reported)
- 6. Social Security is Under Strain From Fewer Workers Per Retiree Ratio of workers to beneficiary 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES Historical Estimated 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
- 7. Inflation Significantly Erodes Purchasing Power Over Time Effects of 3% inflation on purchasing power $73,742 $63,325 $54,379 $85,873 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES $100k 80 60 40 20 0 $46,697 $40,101 0 Years 5 10 15 20 25 30
- 8. The Sequence of Returns Can Significantly Affect Your Retirement Sequence of returns matters Actual historical return sequence Reversed historical return sequence Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Hypothetical value of $500,000 invested at the beginning of 1973 and July 1994. Assumes inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate of 5%. Portfolio: 50% large-company stocks/50% intermediate-term bonds. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES $500k 400 300 200 100 0 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 Jul 1993 1989 94 $2.5 mil 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1985 1981 1977 1973
- 9. Discussion of Simulation Criteria and Methodology Many of the following images were created using Monte Carlo parametric simulation. This model estimates the range of possible outcomes based on a set of assumptions including arithmetic mean (return), standard deviation (risk), and correlation for a set of asset classes. The inputs used herein are the historical 1926–2008 figures. The risk and return of each asset class, cross-correlation, and annual average inflation over this time period follow. Stocks: risk 20.6%, return 11.7%; Bonds: risk 5.7%, return 5.6%; Correlation 0.00; Inflation: return 3.1%. Note that other investments not considered may have characteristics similar or superior to those being analyzed. Each simulation produces 35 randomly selected return estimates consistent with the characteristics of the portfolio to estimate the return distribution over a 35-year period. Each simulation is run 5,000 times, to give 5,000 possible 35-year scenarios. A limitation of the simulation model is that it assumes that the distribution of returns is normal. Should actual returns not follow this pattern, results may vary. KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES
- 10. Interpreting Confidence Levels in Simulation Confidence level Chance of exceeding Chance of falling short 50% 75% 90% (More conservative) 50% 75% 90% 50% 25% 10% This table is intended to help interpret 50%, 75%, and 90% confidence levels illustrated in the following images. KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES
- 11. Simulation Can Illustrate the Probability of Achieving Outcomes A visual interpretation of confidence levels in simulation $10 mil • 50% confidence level • 75% confidence level • 90% confidence level IMPORTANT: Projections generated by KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary over time and with each simulation. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES , Inc. 3/1/2009 1 mil 100k 10k 65 Years old 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
- 12. High Withdrawal Rates Will Quickly Deplete Your Assets Simulated portfolio values (90% confidence level) Withdrawal rate: 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% IMPORTANT: Projections generated by KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary over time and with each simulation. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2009 KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES , Inc. 3/1/2009 $1 mil 500k 100 50 10 65 years old 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
- 13. Market Performance Affects Chance of Portfolio Shortfall Six percent inflation-adjusted withdrawal at three confidence levels • 50% confidence level • 75% confidence level • 90% confidence level IMPORTANT: Projections generated by KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary over time and with each simulation. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES $1 mil 500k 100 50 10 65 years old 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
- 14. Withdrawal Rates and Retirement Horizon Affect Ability to Meet Goals Probability of meeting income needs throughout retirement IMPORTANT: Projections generated by Morningstar regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary over time and with each simulation. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES Withdrawal rate: 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 15 years into retirement 20 25 30 35 100% Prob. 80 60 40 20 0
- 15. Probability of Meeting Income Needs Various withdrawal rates and portfolio allocations over a 25-year retirement 86% 35% 4% 0% 0% 97% 71% 28% 5% 0% 95% 79% 52% 27% 11% 92% 79% 60% 42% 26% 88% 76% 62% 48% 36% 4% Withdrawal rate 5% 6% 7% 8% 100% Bonds 75% B 25% S 50% B 50% S 25% B 75% S 100% Stocks IMPORTANT: Projections generated by Morningstar regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary over time and with each simulation. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES
- 16. Providing for Retirement Income Retirement risks can be managed by intelligent combination of funds, stocks and bonds, and insurance products How do you find the right asset mix for retirement? age and risk tolerance desire for consumption and bequest expenses and fees of product choices KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Then and Now Portfolios for those saving for retirement and those in retirement are different as goals, needs, and risk profiles change. Retirement presents new challenges for investors as their goals move from accumulation to distribution of their wealth. Before retirement, the dollar value of future goals can be hard to quantify because it may be many years before the goals are realized. In retirement, the goals are very real as retirees change from saving for them to paying for them. Pulling money out of a portfolio that is also intended to provide long-term growth can be a balancing act. Retirees find themselves having to manage the opposing forces of long-term growth and current income. They are concerned with preserving the wealth they have accumulated, while still providing the growth they need to sustain periodic withdrawals throughout their retirement. In addition, downturns can have more severe effects on the life of a retirement portfolio. Before retirement, market dips could be endured and even used as an opportunity to accumulate more investment shares at lower prices. During retirement, however, the effects of market dips are compounded by the periodic withdrawals retirees make from the portfolio, leaving even less principal to work for long-term growth. Before retirement, investments had the ability to grow tax-deferred. After retirement, retirees usually have to pay income taxes as money is distributed from the portfolio. Furthermore, retirees also have to start making minimum required distributions (MRD) from many of their tax-deferred accounts as they approach 70½ years of age.
- Retirees Face Numerous Risks There are a number of risks that cause uncertainties for retirees. Longevity risk: The risk of retirees outliving their portfolio is especially a concern for those taking advantage of early retirement or those who have a family history of longevity. Retirees need to consider how long they may possibly live. For a couple aged 65, there is a 25% chance that one of them will live to age 96—a 31 year retirement time horizon! Solvency risk: The problems with government and employer sources should be a concern for retirees. Social Security and Medicare are in a situation in which they will likely be forced to reduce benefits over time, while pension plans frequently default or reduce benefits to those already in retirement. Savings risk: Most people simply aren’t saving enough for retirement. In 2005, the personal savings rate was 0.4%—the first year savings as a percentage of disposable income fell below 1% since the Great Depression. It grew slightly to 0.7% in 2006, 0.6% in 2007 and 1.7% in 2008 (Bureau of Economic Analysis). Inflation risk: Inflation erodes the value of savings and reduces returns. In order to combat the sometimes extreme fluctuations of the stock market, retirement portfolios are often weighted more toward fixed-income investments. Conservative investments that pay a fixed income run the risk of being unable to keep pace with inflation. Furthermore, health care inflation rates have recently been 5% annually. Market volatility risk: Market volatility may cause portfolio values to fluctuate both up and down. If market drops or corrections occur early during retirement, the portfolio may not be able to cushion the added stress of systematic withdrawals. This may lead to the portfolio being unable to provide the necessary income for the lifestyle desired, or the portfolio may simply run out of money too soon. Retirees must consider how investments should be allocated in retirement. Retiree spending risk: What level of pre-retirement income will people need in retirement? Some may be able to live on less, but others may need more. An assessment of essential versus lifestyle expenses in retirement is needed. Withdrawal risk: Retirees will need guidance on what withdrawal rate may be sustainable over a long retirement, as well as the sequence of withdrawals and managing Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs). Retirees will have to pay income taxes as money is distributed from their portfolios. As retirees approach 70½ years old, they have to start making required minimum distributions (RMDs) from their tax-deferred accounts. Depending on the size of the portfolio, this could mean retirees are pulling out more than they need in order to satisfy the RMD and paying unnecessary taxes on the larger amount.
- Retirees Should Plan for a Long Retirement Longevity risk is the possibility that a person will outlive his or her retirement savings. Chances are, people are going to live longer than they think. While living longer is a good thing, it can pose some challenging financial issues in retirement. Longevity risk is perhaps one of the biggest risks that investors will face as they enter retirement. Accounting for longevity risk in retirement planning is more important than ever because people today are living significantly longer than prior generations, due to advances in medicine, diet, and technology. This risk is compounded by medical and health-care expenses that are rising considerably faster than the rate of inflation. Most people underestimate how long they are likely to live. Too often, people base their financial planning upon their life expectancy, which is the average age at which someone is expected to die. In the United States, the median life expectancy of a 65-year-old man and woman is 85 and 88, respectively. What people do not always realize is that this is the median. Half of the population will live longer, often much longer than their life expectancy. The image above illustrates the probabilities of a 65-year-old living to various ages. For example, there is 25% chance that a 65-year-old man will live to age 91, a 65-year-old woman to age 93, or at least one spouse of a 65-year-old couple to age 96. Retirees should plan for a long retirement, perhaps as long as 30 years. If retirees’ financial plans assume they live only to the median life expectancy, they run a greater risk of depleting their retirement savings. There are a couple additional reasons to use conservative mortality assumptions. First, the fact that your clients are working with a financial advisor means that their expected mortality is likely to be older than the population at large due to better health-care, nutrition, etc. Second, consider the downside risk—you would rather be conservative and have money left over than have your clients run out of money before they die. Source: Annuity 2000 Mortality Tables—Transactions, Society of Actuaries, 1995–1996 Reports.
- Personal Savings Expected to Play a Larger Role in Retirement The sources from which current workers expect to receive their income during retirement differ from the sources from which current retirees actually receive their income. The graphs illustrate that while only 48% of current retirees utilize their personal savings for retirement income, 73% of current workers anticipate personal savings to play a role during retirement. 74% of workers expect to receive retirement income from an employer-sponsored retirement savings plan, while only 36% of those already retired actually receive income from such a source. A whopping 94% of retirees say they derive some of their income from Social Security as opposed to 80% of current workers who expect to rely on this source. Traditionally, Social Security and company pension plans were primarily depended on to fund an individual’s retirement. As the retirement income gap grows larger, however, the current belief is that these established retirement income sources will no longer play as prominent a role. Personal savings are expected to play a much larger role funding future retirements. Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, 2008 Retirement Confidence Survey.
- Social Security is Under Strain From Fewer Workers Per Retiree Concern over the Social Security program’s ability to fund itself over the long term is mounting. With baby boomers nearing retirement age, a strain on Social Security’s ability to meet its obligations is likely to develop. Since the Social Security program is a “pay-as-you-go” system, it is supported by taxes from current workers to pay the benefits of current retirees. According to the Social Security Administration, the number of workers paying into the system for every person has plummeted from 42 workers per beneficiary in 1945 to 3.3 in 2008, and is projected to fall to 2.1 by 2040. Since the ratio of workers to retirees is expected to continue declining, a shortfall in future Social Security funding is likely. The trustees of the Social Security program predict that in 2017, Social Security benefit payments will begin to exceed Social Security tax income. Furthermore, they are forecasting that the Social Security trust fund will be exhausted in 2041 unless changes are made. In the face of such demographic pressure, the Social Security system will eventually collapse unless Congress acts to increase payroll taxes, reduce benefits, or push back the eligibility date for benefits. Most experts believe that all three actions are likely, and the longer Congress delays action, the greater the pain will be for investors. Source: The 2008 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds, March 2008, Social Security Administration.
- Inflation Significantly Erodes Purchasing Power Over Time Inflation is commonly defined as the rise in prices for goods and services over time. The average inflation rate from 1926–2008 was 3%. Investors often do not understand the damage inflation can do over long periods of time to their spending power. This may be because the annual average of 3% seems relatively low. Over long time horizons, such as a 30-year retirement, an annual increase in prices of 3% can have a tremendous impact on investors’ financial situation. Inflation erodes the value of investors’ savings. The graph demonstrates that $100,000 of income today will only be worth $85,873 of value in as little as five years, or roughly 14% less than today. Over the course of a typical 30-year retirement, the income will be reduced by nearly 60% to $40,101. To make matters worse, medical expenses, which can be a considerable factor for retirees, are rising faster than the average inflation rate. A recent estimate from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services suggests medical inflation may be as high as 6.9% annually over the period 2006–2016. Investors planning for retirement would be wise to plan for an inflation rate higher than 3%. About the data Inflation is represented by the Consumer Price Index and the medical inflation estimate is measured by the National Health Expenditures per capita from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
- The Sequence of Returns Can Significantly Affect Your Retirement The point in time that a person chooses to retire can also affect the ability of his or her portfolio to last throughout retirement. The images above demonstrate this by showing how the sequence of market returns affects how much a portfolio can grow while sustaining needed withdrawals in retirement. Both images look at a hypothetical 50% stock/50% bond portfolio with an initial value of $500,000 and assume a withdrawal rate of 5% annually, adjusted for inflation. The image on the left assumes a person retired on January 1, 1973 (right before a bear market) and began making monthly withdrawals in January 1973. The result was that the portfolio ran out of money by July 1994. The image on the right illustrates a hypothetical case where the historical returns occurred in reverse chronological order: The returns from 1994 occurred before the returns from 1993, etc., with the returns from 1973 occurring last. By reversing the sequence of returns, the portfolio experienced high returns in the early years and low returns in the latter years. As a result, the portfolio increased substantially over time, more than tripling in value, despite the ongoing 5% withdrawals. This hypothetical example highlights that in the early years of retirement, a portfolio being eroded simultaneously by a bear market and withdrawals may not be able to rebuild wealth, even if good returns are experienced in later years. This is relevant because people who retired right before or during the bear market of the early 2000s experienced large declines in portfolio values early in retirement. Unfortunately, no one can predict what the market might do in the critical years of their retirement. This is why it is particularly important in the early years to manage this risk through effective asset allocation, reducing withdrawal rates and spending, or deferring retirement. Government bonds are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the United States government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while stocks are not guaranteed and have been more volatile than the other asset classes. About the data Stocks in this example are represented by the Standard & Poor’s 500®, which is an unmanaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the stock market in general. Bonds are represented by the five-year U.S. government bond and inflation by the Consumer Price Index. Each monthly withdrawal is adjusted for inflation and each portfolio is rebalanced monthly. An investment cannot be made directly in an index.
- Interpreting Confidence Levels in Simulation Confidence levels are a statistical measure that indicate a probability value and are expressed as a percentage. Interpreting confidence levels can often be difficult. The table provided is intended to help interpret confidence levels that are commonly displayed in illustrations of simulated market performance. In the context of simulating wealth and income in retirement, a 50% confidence level means there is a 50% chance of exceeding the illustrated result and a 50% chance of falling short. This is also considered the median result. A 75% confidence level means there is a 75% chance of exceeding the illustrated result and a 25% chance of falling short. This confidence level takes more downside scenarios into account than the 50% level does. A 90% confidence level means there is a 90% chance of exceeding the illustrated result and a 10% chance of falling short. Results shown under these conditions include a significant exposure to expected downside risk. Unexpected events that are out of an individual’s control are a significant concern for today’s retirees. Prudent retirement planning often means preparing for the worst. For this reason, it is much safer to plan for poor market conditions associated with the 75% or 90% confidence levels.
- Simulation Can Illustrate the Probability of Achieving Outcomes Simulation is a tool that can be used to show the probability of achieving certain investment outcomes by performing multiple return scenarios. Simulation estimates this range of possible outcomes based on a set of assumptions including arithmetic mean (return), standard deviation (risk), and correlation for a group of asset classes or portfolios. Typically when simulation is used, thousands of simulations are run to produce thousands of possible outcomes. For simplicity’s sake, the image above presents a snapshot from a simulation that was run just 100 times and produced 100 possible 35-year scenarios for the performance of a sample portfolio. Each line represents one possible 35-year scenario. The values calculated and presented are potential outcomes for an investor's wealth level over a 35-year period, and help determine whether or not the investor will be able to successfully fund his or her retirement goal. The values for each year are subsequently sorted from smallest to largest and can be presented according to various probabilities. References are often made that there is a certain chance of a particular result. To understand what this means, the image highlights the results for the 50%, 75%, and 90% confidence levels. For example, the line highlighting the 90% confidence level indicates that in 10% of the possible 35-year scenarios (in this case 10 because 100 scenarios were run) show an investor might experience a portfolio shortfall before the number of years shown, while in 90% of scenarios the portfolio might last longer. This could be an illustration of what could happen if the market experienced poor returns. The 50% level means that there is a 50% chance an investor would have a worse result and a 50% chance they’d have a better result. Determining the appropriate confidence level to use can be a challenge. Everyone tolerates risk in different ways. For some 50/50 is good enough while others desire more conservative estimates that take into account a tougher view of market conditions and provide more of a worst-case scenario. Regardless, using simulation can help investors understand their chances of meeting income needs or experiencing income shortfalls in retirement. Keep in mind that an investment cannot be made directly in an index.
- High Withdrawal Rates Will Quickly Deplete Your Assets Several issues should be examined when determining an investor’s withdrawal rate. Asset allocation, time horizon, and consumption patterns are all important factors in shaping how long portfolio wealth will last. This image looks at a hypothetical 50% stock/50% bond portfolio and the effect various inflation-adjusted withdrawal rates have on the end value of the portfolio over a long payout period. Each hypothetical portfolio has an initial starting value of $500,000. It is assumed that a person retires at age 65 and withdraws an inflation-adjusted percentage of the initial portfolio wealth ($500,000) each year beginning at age 66. Annual investment expenses were assumed to be 0.97% for stock mutual funds and 0.79% for bond mutual funds. As illustrated, the higher the withdrawal rate, the greater the chance of potential shortfall. The lower the rate, the less likely an investor is to outlive their portfolio. Therefore, retirees who anticipate long payout periods may want to consider assuming lower withdrawal rates. The image was created using Monte Carlo parametric simulation that estimates the range of possible outcomes based on a set of assumptions including arithmetic mean (return), standard deviation (risk), and correlation for a set of asset classes. The inputs used are historical 1926–2008 figures. The risk and return of each asset class, cross-correlation, and annual average inflation over this time period follow. Stocks: risk 20.6%, return 11.7%; Bonds: risk 5.7%, return 5.6%; Correlation 0.0; Inflation: return 3.1%. Other investments not considered may have characteristics similar or superior to those being analyzed. The simulation is run 5,000 times, to give 5,000 possible 35-year scenarios. While simulation can produce results that show probabilities of an outcome, the analysis included herein is presented as the 90% confidence level. A 90% confidence level indicates that there is a 90% chance of the outcome being as shown or better. Higher confidence levels are chosen in order to view tougher market conditions. A limitation of the simulation model is that it assumes a constant inflation-adjusted rate of withdrawal, which may not be representative of actual retirement income needs. This type of simulation also assumes that the distribution of returns is normal. Should actual returns not follow this pattern, results may vary. Government bonds are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the United States government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while returns and principal invested in stocks are not guaranteed. About the data Stocks are represented by the Standard & Poor’s 500®, which is an unmanaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the stock market in general. Bonds are represented by the five-year U.S. government bond, inflation by the Consumer Price Index and mutual fund expenses from KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES . An investment cannot be made directly in an index. The data assumes reinvestment of income and does not account for taxes or transaction costs.
- Market Performance Affects Chance of Portfolio Shortfall A low withdrawal rate does not ensure that a portfolio will last throughout retirement and provide the required income need. Each withdrawal rate has its own set of probabilities for how it will affect a portfolio’s value and ability to provide income in retirement. This is due to market performance. If the market performs well, the portfolio will likely last longer in retirement. Likewise, if the market performs poorly, the chance of shortfall increases. This image looks at a hypothetical 50% stock/50% bond portfolio and an initial starting value of $500,000. It is assumed that a person retires at age 65 and withdraws $30,000 (inflation-adjusted) per year each year beginning at age 66. This equates to a 6% withdrawal rate. Annual investment expenses were assumed to be 0.97% for stock mutual funds and 0.79% for bond mutual funds. The portfolio has a 90% chance of lasting beyond age 82. There is a 75% chance of lasting beyond age 85 and a 50% chance of the portfolio lasting past age 90. Investors with a long expected retirement or life expectancy really need to consider how time, withdrawal amounts, and market returns can affect the lifetime of their portfolios. Is now the right time to retire? Are there enough accumulated funds to last throughout retirement while providing the lifestyle desired? The image was created using Monte Carlo parametric simulation that estimates the range of possible outcomes based on a set of assumptions including arithmetic mean (return), standard deviation (risk), and correlation for a set of asset classes. The inputs used are historical 1926–2008 figures. The risk and return of each asset class, cross-correlation, and annual average inflation over this time period follow. Stocks: risk 20.6%, return 11.7%; Bonds: risk 5.7%, return 5.6%; Correlation 0.0; Inflation: return 3.1%. Note that other investments not considered may have characteristics similar or superior to those being analyzed. The simulation is run 5,000 times, to give 5,000 possible 35-year scenarios. A limitation of the simulation model is that it assumes a constant inflation-adjusted rate of withdrawal, which may not be representative of actual retirement income needs. This type of simulation also assumes that the distribution of returns is normal. Should actual returns not follow this pattern, results may vary. Government bonds are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the United States government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while returns and principal invested in stocks are not guaranteed. About the data Stocks in this example are represented by the Standard & Poor’s 500®, which is an unmanaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the stock market in general. Bonds are represented by the five-year U.S. government bond, inflation by the Consumer Price Index and mutual fund expenses from KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES . An investment cannot be made directly in an index. The data assumes reinvestment of income and does not account for taxes or transaction costs.
- Withdrawal Rates and Retirement Horizon Affect Ability to Meet GoalsTime horizon and withdrawal rates affect the probabilities of having enough money in retirement. This image estimates the probabilities of a hypothetical 50% stock/50% bond portfolio meeting income needs at various time intervals into retirement assuming various inflation-adjusted withdrawal rates. Each annual withdrawal is adjusted for the historical 1926–2008 inflation rate of 3.1%. Annual investment expenses were assumed to be 0.97% for stock mutual funds and 0.79% for bond mutual funds. For example, a person who withdrew 8% per year for income had a 64% chance of meeting income needs 15 years into retirement. The probability of meeting income needs dropped to 26% after just 20 years and 11% after 25 years. As displayed, there can be a substantial risk of outliving one’s assets. Possible solutions include altering portfolio allocations or lowering the amount of income withdrawn each year. The image was created using Monte Carlo parametric simulation. This model estimates the range of possible outcomes based on a set of assumptions including arithmetic mean (return), standard deviation (risk), and correlation for a set of asset classes. The inputs used herein are the historical 1926–2008 figures. The risk and return of each asset class, cross-correlation, and annual average inflation over this time period follow. Stocks: risk 20.6%, return 11.7%; Bonds: risk 5.7%, return 5.6%; Correlation 0.0; Inflation: return 3.1%. Note that other investments not considered may have characteristics similar or superior to those being analyzed. Each simulation produces 35 randomly selected return estimates consistent with the characteristics of the portfolio to estimate the return distribution over 15-, 20-, 25-, 30-, and 35-year periods. Each simulation is run 5,000 times, to give 5,000 possible scenarios for each time horizon. A limitation of the simulation model is that it assumes a constant inflation-adjusted rate of withdrawal, which may not be representative of actual retirement income needs. This type of simulation also assumes that the distribution of returns is normal. Should actual returns not follow this pattern, results may vary. Government bonds are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the United States government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while returns and principal invested in stocks are not guaranteed. About the data Stocks in this example are represented by the Standard & Poor’s 500®, which is an unmanaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the stock market in general. Bonds are represented by the five-year U.S. government bond, inflation by the Consumer Price Index and mutual fund expenses from KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES . An investment cannot be made directly in an index. The data assumes reinvestment of income and does not account for taxes.
- Probability of Meeting Income Needs There are a number of factors that can impact whether a portfolio will last through retirement. The table shows how the amount of withdrawal and various portfolio allocations can affect the chance of meeting income needs over a 25-year retirement. It is assumed that a person retires at year zero and withdraws an inflation-adjusted percentage of the initial portfolio wealth each year beginning in year 1. Annual investment expenses were assumed to be 0.97% for stock mutual funds and 0.79% for bond mutual funds. A high probability indicates that an investor is more likely to meet income needs in retirement, while a low probability indicates that an investor is less likely to do so and may face shortfall. The chance of a portfolio running out over a long retirement is less likely as the amount withdrawn decreases and as equities are added. Keep in mind that returns and principal invested in stocks are not guaranteed and they have been more volatile (risky) than bonds. The image was created using Monte Carlo parametric simulation that estimates the range of possible outcomes based on a set of assumptions including arithmetic mean (return), standard deviation (risk), and correlation for a set of asset classes. The inputs used are historical 1926–2008 figures. The risk and return of each asset class, cross-correlation, and annual average inflation over this time period follow. Stocks: risk 20.6%, return 11.7%; Bonds: risk 5.7%, return 5.6%; Correlation 0.00; Inflation: return 3.1%. Other investments not considered may have characteristics similar or superior to those being analyzed. The simulation is run 5,000 times, to give 5,000 possible 25-year scenarios. A limitation of this simulation model is that it assumes a constant inflation-adjusted rate of withdrawal, which may not be representative of actual retirement income needs. This type of simulation also assumes that the distribution of returns is normal. Should actual returns not follow this pattern, results may vary. Government bonds are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the United States government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while returns and principal invested in stocks are not guaranteed. About the data Stocks in this example are represented by the Standard & Poor’s 500®, which is an unmanaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the stock market in general. Bonds are represented by the five-year U.S. government bond, inflation by the Consumer Price Index and mutual fund expenses from KJH FINANCIAL SERVICES . An investment cannot be made directly in an index. The data assumes reinvestment of income and does not account for taxes.
- Providing for Retirement Income The risk of being unable to fund goals throughout retirement can be managed by an intelligent combination of funds, stocks and bonds, and insurance products. Finding the right mix of products and investments for retirees involves a very individualistic approach based on the following factors: Age and risk toleranceThe age of a retiree will determine how long retirement is expected to be and can influence the amount of assets needed for long-term growth. In addition, the retiree’s tolerance for market fluctuation will also help determine the types of investments to be included. Desire for consumption and bequestThe choice between a comfortable retirement and passing wealth on to loved ones can be difficult. The rate of consumption in retirement may impact whether or not a retiree will be able to leave a portfolio behind for their heirs. Expenses and fees of product choicesUltimately, retirees must weigh the costs of the options before them—including the opportunity costs and the direct costs associated with the products they choose. The fees and expenses associated with different products may make some options cost-prohibitive. Fortunately, the choices for retirees are not black and white. Based on the factors above, there is an optimal mix of investments and products for every situation.