NewBase 01-February-2023 Energy News issue - 1589 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf

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NewBase Energy News 01 February 2023 No. 1589 Senior Editor Eng. Khaed Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
New UAE, France partnership to focus on decarbonisation of
hard-to-abate industries
Gulf News + NewBAse
The UAE and France will jointly launch a programme that will help accelerate clean energy
development, notably in the decarbonisation of hard-to-abate (HTA) industries, including clean
hydrogen solutions for mobility.
The two sides will develop commercial and investable opportunities in the sector by combining their
expertise in the field. The initiative builds on the partnership successes between Emirati and French
companies in the clean and renewable energy sector.
Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber with Bruno Le Maire.
Industrial leaders from both countries have partnered in the development, investment, and operation
of over 6.2 gigawatts (GW) of clean and renewable energy programs across the globe, notably two
of the largest single-site solar projects in the world, located in the UAE, and mobilised over $6 billion
in investment, displacing some 10 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.
Tuesday’s announcement comes as Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and
Advanced Technology, President-Designate for COP28, and Chairman of Masdar, met Bruno Le
Maire, France’s Minister of the Economy, Finance, and Industrial and Digital Sovereignty, as part of
his visit to the UAE.
The programme’s operations will be officially launched during COP28, the 28th session of the United
Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC), to be held in Dubai in November
this year.
The investable opportunities in the programme will be developed jointly, with Masdar leading on the
UAE side of the partnership, and aim to fully align with the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate
ww.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-80201019/

change, with each opportunity being assessed based on the relevant and internationally accepted
methodology.
Dr Al Jaber said: “This initiative builds on the long-standing partnership between the UAE and
France to take advantage of practical, commercial opportunities for low carbon growth that will
accelerate the energy transition and promote climate action and sustainable economic development
in both our countries and across the globe.
Leveraging our combined technological and energy expertise, we will intensify our efforts to
promote renewable and zero carbon energies to decarbonize economies and in particular hard to
abate sectors. As the UAE prepares to host COP28, we are intent on making it a COP of Action and
a COP for all.
We are extending an open invitation to the world to join us in constructive efforts to raise ambition,
move from deliberation to delivery and achieve the central goal of the Paris Agreement to keep 1.5
alive.”
Le Maire added: “This targeted programme will leverage synergies between public and private
sectors from both countries to accelerate the implementation of impactful projects of clean energy
development for transportation. I am very happy of this new illustration of France-UAE strategic
partnership and our common objective to raise ambitions towards COP28”.
What are HTA industries?
Hard-to-abate sectors are those for which the transition to carbon abatement is not straightforward,
because they either lack the technology or the cost remains prohibitive.
For instance, many heavy industries, such as the steel, cement, and aluminium sectors, employ
extremely high-temperature processes that can, as of today, only be achieved in a cost-effective
way by burning fossil fuels. Each uses carbon as an integral part of its process, and altogether this
sector accounts for about 30 per cent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.

German industry to pay 40% more for energy than pre-crisis
Vera Eckert, Reuters News
German industry is set to pay about 40% more for energy in 2023 than in 2021, before the energy
crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a study by Allianz Trade said on Monday, citing
contract expiries and delayed wholesale pricing effects.
"The large energy-price shock still lies ahead for European corporates," said Allianz Trade, the
credit insurer that changed its name from Euler Hermes last year.
In 2022, higher corporate utility bills were contained as long pass-through times from wholesale
markets and government interventions mitigated the immediate hit from surging prices as Russia
curbed fuel exports to the West.
The price increases will hit corporate profits across Europe by 1-1.5% and lead to lower investment,
which in Germany's case would amount to 25 billion euros ($27 billion), Allianz Trade estimated.
German companies' finances are robust, however, and a state-imposed gas price cap would help,
it added.
Fears the crisis could lead to de-industrialisation and a loss of competitiveness against the United
States were overdone, because labour costs and exchange rates have a bigger impact on
manufacturing than energy prices, the study said.
Also, while exporters were losing market shares in areas such as agrifood, machinery, electrical
equipment, metals and transport, the relative beneficiaries tended to be Asian, Middle Eastern and
African, not American, it added.
The German government's one-off payment to help private households and small businesses with
gas prices - the first stage of a package that will be complemented with retroactive price caps kicking
in in March - has cost 4.3 billion euros so far, the economy ministry said on Saturday.
Berlin has earmarked 12 billion euros for the payment, but the ministry said 4.3 billion euros was
not the final cost as many eligible firms had not yet applied for the aid. They have until the end of
February.

U.S.A: Proved reserves of natural gas increased 32% in U.S
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Proved Reserves of Crude Oil and Natural Gas in the United States, Year-End 2021
Proved reserves of natural gas in the United States grew to a new record of 625.4 trillion cubic feet
(Tcf) in 2021, a 32% increase from 2020, according to our recently released Proved Reserves of
Crude Oil and Natural Gas in the United States, Year-End 2021 report.
U.S. proved reserves had previously decreased 4% in 2020 as a response to prices that fell with
decreased consumption during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. At year-end 2021,
however, five of the eight states with the most proved reserves of natural gas each reported new
record volumes, driving the growth nationally. Proved reserves are operator estimates of the
volumes of oil and natural gas that geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable
certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and
operating conditions.

Prices heavily affect estimates of proved reserves. The wholesale spot price for natural gas at the
U.S. benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana averaged $3.89 per million British thermal units in 2021,
almost doubling from 2020, according to data from Refinitiv.
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Proved Reserves of Crude Oil and Natural
Gas in the United States, Year-End 2021.Proved reserves in Alaska increased the most in 2021, up
63 Tcf, or nearly triple the state’s total in 2020.
The proved reserves located in Alaska had already quadrupled in 2020 from 9.4 Tcf to 36.5 Tcf due
to development of the Alaska LNG Project and its Mainline Pipeline connecting the North Slope to
LNG facilities in the southern Alaska Cook Inlet Region. Large volumes of previously stranded
Alaskan natural gas resources are now considered proved reserves.

U.S. N.gas consumption was record high in late December 2022
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hourly Electric Grid Monitor
source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
On December 23, 2022, natural gas consumption in the U.S. Lower 48 states reached a daily record
high of 141.0 billion cubic feet (Bcf), according to estimates from S&P Global Commodity Insights.
The previous record was 137.4 Bcf, set on January 1, 2018.
Below-normal temperatures in mid- to late December increased demand for natural gas used for
residential and commercial space heating and electric power generation. At the same time, natural
gas production quickly fell because of mechanical issues caused by the cold temperatures.
From December 21 through December 26, 2022, a winter storm moved across North America,
bringing blizzards, high winds, and extremely cold temperatures to a large portion of the United
States. Increased demand for space heating in both the residential and commercial sectors was
primarily met by natural gas.
On those six days, residential and commercial sector natural gas consumption averaged 60.9 billion
cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), or 55% higher than the five-year (2017–21) average.
Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector averaged 37.8 Bcf/d from December 21
through December 26, or 45% higher than the five-year average (26.0 Bcf/d) for those days. Electric
power utilities used more natural gas, coal, wind, and oil to meet the higher-than-average demand
for electricity.
The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and
the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) reported record-high electric power generation during the winter
storm.

Although U.S. natural gas demand increased, production fell. Dry natural gas production in the
Lower 48 states dropped to a low of 82.5 Bcf on December 24, a 16% decrease (16.1 Bcf/d) from
December 21, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. The last time U.S. natural
gas production rapidly declined to this degree was during a February 2021 winter storm. Higher-
than-average natural gas demand during the December storm was met by increasing both
withdrawals from storage and pipeline imports from Canada.
Natural gas withdrawals from working underground storage across the Lower 48 states totaled
213.0 Bcf for the week ending December 23 and 221.0 Bcf for the week ending December 30. In
2021, withdrawals were 136.0 Bcf for the week ending December 24.
Natural gas pipeline imports from Canada supplied 10.4 Bcf of natural gas to the United States on
December 24, the highest natural gas imports from Canada in one day since February 2007,
according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Note: Total demand includes total consumption, pipeline exports, liquefied natural gas (LNG)
feedgas deliveries, and pipeline loss and fuel.

Russia Can’t Replace the Energy Market Putin Broke
Bloomberg L.P. – Julian Lee
Russia spent almost 50 years building its energy market in Europe. President Vladimir Putin
destroyed it in under 50 weeks. Finding a replacement will be almost impossible.
While Russia has found alternative markets for its crude oil, mostly in India, switching sales of
refined products and — perhaps even more so — natural gas will take years and come at huge
cost. That’s if it’s even possible to create markets as the world turns away from fossil fuels.
When Moscow’s troops invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, its European energy customers took fright. A
market that soaked up nearly 2.5 million barrels a day of crude, another 1 million barrels of refined
products and 155 billion cubic meters a year of natural gas has all but disappeared.
Crude flows from Russia to
parts of Europe began to
dwindle soon after Putin’s
troops crossed the border.
By Dec. 5, when a European
Union ban on seaborne
imports of Russian crude
came into effect, they were
already down to a trickle,
with Bulgaria, which secured
a temporary exemption, the
only remaining market. The
flow of refined products is
following the same trajectory

ahead of similar sanctions that come into effect on Feb. 5.
Russia’s European market for its natural gas has also been lost. A huge network of gas fields and
pipelines, developed at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars since the first gas crossed the border
into Austria in 1968, has been thrown away.
It was estimated in 2017 that $100 billion had already been invested in the development of gas
reserves on Russia’s Yamal Peninsula, most of which were tied to Europe through pipelines,
including those running beneath the Baltic Sea linking Russia to Germany. That figure was expected
to double by 2025. Much of that investment now looks redundant.
While Russia may be able to salvage some sort of an energy relationship with Europe after the
war ends, which it inevitably will, it’s unlikely that EU countries will ever allow themselves, or need,
to be as dependent on Russian gas as they were just a year ago.
Governments and consumers in Europe are at last getting serious about demand restraint and
energy efficiency, while the record prices paid for gas and electricity have spurred investment in
renewables and the first serious attempts to change the way retail electricity prices are formulated,
taking account of the dwindling share of fossil fuels in power generation.

Russia’s oil companies have succeeded in diverting deliveries of crude shunned by traditional
European buyers, thanks in very large part to the thirst of Indian refiners for cheap feedstock. But
the diversion has come at a huge cost to Russia and its oil industry. Big discounts, which appear to
have been as high as $35 a barrel, equivalent to a 40% price cut, have been required to penetrate
the Indian market.
By the end of last year, Russian barrels accounted for about one-quarter of India’s crude imports,
displacing cargoes from the subcontinent’s traditional Middle Eastern suppliers — Saudi Arabia,
Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
Diverting crude flows to a thirsty market with a big refining sector capable of processing the relatively
high-sulfur crude exported by Russia is one thing; diverting refined products into that market is quite
another. I’m sure there will be some countries willing to snap up cheap Russian diesel while
exporting their own locally produced fuel back to Europe, but they will require discounts big enough
to make the trade profitable — another cost to be borne by the Kremlin and its oil companies.
But oil, whether crude or refined products, has a big advantage over natural gas: It can be easily
and cheaply transported by sea.
For most of the past 55 years, Russia has looked westward for its gas buyers. Huge pipelines,
thousands of kilometers long, linked gas fields, first in Siberia and more recently on the Yamal
Peninsula, to buyers in Europe.

Turkey: Trillion Energy start SASB 3D seismic project
Source Trillion
Trillion Energy International has announced the commencement of it’s 3D seismic reprocessing
project for SASB.
The existing 3D seismic data covers 223 km2 and includes the SASB block. This old 3D seismic
shot by WesternGeco in 2004 is good quality and was processed in 2004 with pre-stack time
migration (PSTM). Since 2004, vast improvements in seismic data processing algorithms have
occurred. As SASB has very complex geology, reprocessing with advanced pre-stack depth
migration (PSDM) and incorporating time-depth data from wells drilled since the old PSTM model
was created will create a superior model.
Uses of the new PSDM seismic velocity model will include:
 Obtain a more detailed and accurate mapping of individual gas reservoir units, provide better
imaging of the gas trapping faults and superior structural maps;
 Further, identify and define stratigraphic exploration gas prospects (to which there are many
on SASB) but which have never been drilled;
 Mapping the deeper Cretaceous Akveren Formation “CAF”, which has never been explored,
but which contains tantalizing deeper anomalies based on the old PSTM model. Onshore
proximate to SASB, there are many oil and gas seeps originating and contained within the
Cretaceous sediments. The data reprocessing is scheduled to commence early March 2023
and is anticipated to take five to six months to complete.
Arthur Halleran, CEO of Trillion, stated:
'Reprocessing the 3D seismic data using modern cutting-edge technology will increase our understanding of
the gas potential at SASB and is the first step to making significant new discoveries. The cost of reprocessing
is infinitesimal compared a new 3D shoot of this size. The reprocessing will allow mapping of extensions to
existing structurally trapped gas pools, discover new gas pools and improve resolution of the stratigraphic
exploration prospects. I am excited about what we will also see in the deeper Cretaceous age formations,
where onshore oil and gas seeps have been found 20 to 30 km from SASB.'

NewBase February 01 -2023 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil rises as slowing U.S. inflation eases recession concerns
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices rose on Wednesday as signs of slowing inflation in the United States eased fears that the
world's largest oil user may face a recession because of further interest rate hikes and a weaker
dollar supported some buying interest.
Brent crude futures gained 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $85.54 a barrel at 0727 GMT. U.S. West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 20 cents, or 0.2%, to $79.07 a barrel.
Both benchmarks were up for a second day, after gaining about 1% in the previous session.
"Sentiment shifted amid a positive company reporting season. Signs of cooling inflation also raised
expectations that the Fed will be able to pause rate hikes," ANZ commodities analyst said in a note.
Tamer rate hike expectations helped lower the dollar index , which supported oil prices as a weaker
greenback makes the commodity cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.
Oil price special
coverage

All eyes will be on a meeting on Wednesday of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, where producers are expected to
endorse their current output targets agreed in November.
OPEC's oil output fell in January, as Iraqi exports dropped and Nigeria's output did not recover, with
the 10 OPEC members pumping 920,000 barrels per day (bpd) below the group's targeted volumes
under the OPEC+ agreement, a Reuters survey found.
The shortfall was bigger than the deficit of 780,000 bpd in December.
"Oil prices seem primed to navigate a period of heightened volatility ... OPEC+ is likely to stick to its
current production targets, however, Russia is leaning towards increasing oil exports to Asian
buyers at deep discounts, which can disrupt the balance in oil markets," independent oil market
expert Sugandha Sachdeva said.
Upgraded global growth forecasts by the IMF and the expectation of strong pent-up demand from
China amid higher mobility are also underpinning oil prices, Sachdeva added.
Separately, data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group showed crude stocks rose
by about 6.3 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 27, according to market sources.
That was a bigger build than the 400,000 barrels that analysts polled by Reuters had expected on
average.
Distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by about 1.5 million barrels, contrary to
analysts' expectations of a 1.3 million barrel drop.

OPEC+ Treads Wary Path Through China Rebound, Russia Sanctions
(Bloomberg) –
OPEC+ is treading a cautious path on oil policy as it awaits clarity on China’s economic reopening
and new sanctions on Moscow.
Industry figures from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to trading giant Trafigura Group Pte Ltd. anticipate
rallying prices as demand rebounds in Asia’s largest economy and a European embargo squeezes
Russian supply. But as Saudi Arabia and its partners consider their next move, the signals remain
too opaque.
Delegates have said that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will
recommend keeping production levels unchanged at a monitoring meeting on Wednesday, holding
in place hefty production cutbacks announced late last year.
“At this moment we need to be very careful on any decision,” said Equatorial Guinea’s Oil Minister
Gabriel Mbaga Obiang Lima, who this year serves as OPEC’s president. “The China opening and
at the same time the Russia-Ukraine war, clearly those are the two factors.”
After a volatile month, international oil prices are fluctuating near $85 a barrel in London — high
enough for many OPEC+ nations to cover government spending, but still a little lower than some
financially straitened members, such as Iraq, say they need.
China’s decision to scrap almost three years of stringent lockdowns has spurred a revival in travel,
bolstering domestic air journeys by 80% and flooding popular local destinations with tourists.
Goldman Sachs sees a “bullish concoction” for commodities and Trafigura anticipates a “lot of
upside” for crude as Beijing reawakens.
At the same time, global supplies should be tightened as sanctions finally take a toll on Russia, itself
a key member of the OPEC+ coalition. The International Energy Agency projects the country’s

output will sink 15% this quarter as a European Union ban on imports of Russian crude expands
next month to encompass refined fuels.
Still, the recovery may not yet be tangible enough for the 23-nation OPEC+ alliance to open the
taps.
Despite the rebound in Chinese travel, economic indicators in the world’s biggest oil importer are
showing a more muted recovery. Lingering fears of recession are casting a shadow on the US
economic outlook, and Russian exports continue to show resilience in defiance of repeated
predictions of an imminent plunge.
Riyadh will also keep a watchful eye on a nascent uptick in oil shipments an fellow OPEC member,
and political adversary, Iran.
Remaining Conservative
Top officials in OPEC+ have signaled they’ll be conservative in reversing the 2 million barrel-a-day
output reduction that’s been in place since November.
OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais said at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this
month that he’s “cautiously optimistic” on the global economy. Saudi Energy Minister Prince
Abdulaziz bin Salman maintains that the alliance will be “proactive and preemptive” to keep markets
in equilibrium. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
discussed oil market “stability” in a call on Monday.
OPEC+ may wait until the second half of the year to unwind the current output curbs, according to
Goldman Sachs. The group is due to hold another monitoring-committee meeting in two months,
and a full ministerial session at its Vienna headquarters in June, when there may be more Chinese
demand data available to consider.
“There does not seem to be a significant groundswell of support amongst the producers for adding
barrels back at this time until there are clear indications that the reopening is built to last,” said
Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets LLC.

NewBase Specual Coverage
The Energy world –February -01 -2023
CLEAN ENERGY
New global oil and gas discoveries in 2022 drive exploration to
highest value creation in over a decade
Wood Mackenzie
Value creation reaches US$33billion at base price, led by major discoveries in
Namibia, Brazil and Algeria
The global oil and gas exploration sector had its strongest year in 2022 in more than
a decade. In its work to improve portfolios by adding lower-carbon, lower-cost
advantaged hydrocarbons, the sector created at least $US33 billion of value and
achieved full-cycle returns of 22%, at $US60/barrel Brent prices, according to a recent
report from Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk business.

Wood Mackenzie’s ‘Oil and gas exploration: 2022 in review’ report states that
exploration well numbers were less than half the numbers during pre-pandemic years,
yet the total volume of 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent matched the average annual
volumes of 2013-2019.
'2022 was a standout year for exploration,' said Julie Wilson, Director of global
exploration research at Wood Mackenzie. 'Volumes were good, but not stellar.
However, explorers were able to drive very high value through strategic selection and
focusing on the best and largest prospects.
The discoveries bring higher-quality hydrocarbons into companies’ portfolios,
allowing them to reduce carbon by displacing less advantaged oil and gas supplies
while also meeting the world’s energy needs.'

Wilson added, 'The highest value came from world-class discoveries in a new
deepwater play in Namibia, as well as resource additions in Algeria and several new
deepwater discoveries in Guyana and Brazil, where the latest wave of pre-salt
exploration finally met with success. The average discovery last year was over 150
million barrels of oil equivalent, more than double the average of the previous decade.'
Liquids lead new resources
Liquids accounted for 60% of new resources discovered, according to the report. This
is only the third time in 20 years that liquids made up the majority of new discoveries.
'There is a lot of uncertainty in future long-term demand scenarios for oil,' said
Wilson. 'Explorers are accelerating oil exploration to meet near and mid-term
demand, while gas exploration was focused in geographies that can supply the gas-
hungry European market.
In some cases, major leases are approaching expiration of the exploration term and
companies are pushing to optimize their value.
'By 2030, fast-tracked development of these new discoveries could deliver 1 million
barrels per day in oil and 0.5 million barrels of equivalent per day gas production,
generating $US15B in free cash flow.'
Majors and NOCs dominate

The exploration sector continues to be dominated by national oil companies (NOCs)
and Majors, with TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy and Petrobras leading the way in net-
new discovered resources in 2022.
In total, NOCs and Majors accounted for almost three quarters of new resources
discovered.
Wilson said, 'Overall, we saw a year of continued discipline from explorers with
exploration and appraisal well numbers largely flat from 2021. However, spend per
well increased due to inflationary pressures.
Appraisal well numbers increased as companies push towards final investment
decisions in this short-term window of opportunity.'
NewBase Energy News 01 February 2023 - Issue No. 1589 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services

NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
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About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the
GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of
the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant,
advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks,
waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection
and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas
compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes.
Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation &
maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities.
Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has
participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and
panelist.
Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over
1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable
energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the
world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program
broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see
contact details above.

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