Ohto Kanninen: First year of the basic income: further results. Experimenting with Income Support in the Netherlands. Presentation at seminar "Finnish Basic Income Experiment – Science meets social security reform" in Kela 4.4.2019.

1. First year of the basic income:
further results
Ohto Kanninen
4.4.2019

2. Summary
• No significant effect on employment
• A large extent of the treatment group chose not to opt out of active
labor market policies
• Basic Income lowered participation tax rates by around 12 to 23
percentage points on average

3. Primary outcome: employment

5. Mean
Differ
ence Regression
C T - C S.E. p-value Estimate S.E.
p-
value
Primary outcome: days
in employment 49.25 0.39 2.34 0.87
1.11 1.97 0.57
R: No earnings limit 77.13 1.52 2.87 0.60 3.01 2.35 0.20

6. Result by subgroup Estimate S.E. p-value
N in
treatment
group
Main specification 1.11 1.97 0.57 2000
Age
25–34 0.38 3.41 0.91 670
35–44 2.61 3.76 0.49 549
45–59 0.68 3.16 0.83 781
Sex
Male 1.73 2.73 0.53 1045
Female 0.44 2.85 0.88 955
Education
Primary 0.36 3.50 0.92 634
Secondary or higher 1.46 2.39 0.54 1366
Family type
With children 7.66 3.82 0.045 532
No children -1.18 2.59 0.65 1156
Adult and children -1.56 4.99 0.76 312
Municipality group
I–II -6.10 4.08 0.13 468
III 3.14 2.96 0.29 886
IV 3.54 3.47 0.31 646
Benefit type
Labor m. subsidy 1.73 2.11 0.41 1743
Basic unemp. all. -3.06 5.49 0.58 257
Working days in 2016
0 0.71 2.17 0.74 1655
1–366 3.04 4.75 0.52 345

7. Further outcomes Mean Difference Regression
C T - C S.E. p-value Estimate S.E. p-value
Earnings (€). 4251 -21.09 172.0 0.90 10.03 148.9 0.95
Of which through
entrepreneurship(€) 70.71 39.43 27.24 0.15 41.55 27.19 0.13
Taxable income + BI (€) 11965 1342 140.8 <0.01 1362 123.3 <0.01
Social assistance (€) 1344 -403.1 51.22 <0.01 -429.2 43.75 <0.01
Days on unemployment
benefit 252.0 -49.64 3.00 <0.01 -49.84 2.61 <0.01
Days of subsidized work 15.62 0.00 1.25 1.00 -0.29 1.24 0.81
Housing benefit (€) 2509 15.75 57.11 0.78 -31.82 32.16 0.32
Sickness allowance (€) 216.4 -95.69 24.06 <0.01 -99.88 23.75 <0.01

8. Background variables and treatment

9. T C Difference T-C p-value
Outcome variables in 2016
Days in employment 23.83 24.00 -0.17 0.91
(70.05) (70.85)
Days is unemployment 286.0 285.6 0.42 0.86
(106.3) (106.5)
Earnings (€) 1864 1896 -31.27 0.75
(4275) (4324)
Background characteristics (%)
Benefit LM Subsidy 87.15 84.63 2.52 0.00
Female 47.75 47.48 0.27 0.83
Age 0.29
25–34 33.50 35.12 -1.62
35–44 27.45 27.14 0.31
45–59 39.05 37.74 1.31
Education 0.10
Primary 31.70 33.77 -2.07
Secondary 46.65 45.99 0.66
Tertiary 21.65 20.24 1.41
Family type 0.72
Single 39.55 39.51 0.04
Couple 18.25 17.98 0.27
Couple and children 26.60 26.01 0.59
Adult and children 15.60 16.50 -0.90
Foreign language 24.55 25.36 -0.81 0.42
Sickness diagnosis 16.20 16.48 -0.28 0.76
Municipality group 0.99
I 13.85 13.74 0.11
II 9.55 9.47 0.08
III 44.30 44.69 -0.39
IV 32.30 32.10 0.20
N 2000 173 222

12. 2016 2017
T C Diff. p-
value
T C Diff. p-
value
All statements 0.80 0.81 -0.00 0.69 0.79 0.81 -0.02 0.04
Critical
statements
0.07 0.07 0.01 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.02 0.00
Statements by the employment office

13. Earnings 1000 e/month Earnings 2000 e/month
Housing benefit
Social
assistance N C T C T
No No 45757 40.6 24.0 53.6 28.3
Yes 1346 68.5 54.0 70.2 45.8
Yes No 53638 52.1 42.1 67.2 44.8
Yes 28000 74.8 67.6 81.4 61.4
All 128741 53.1 41.3 65.5 42.5
Participation Tax rates

14. Summary
• No significant effect on employment
• A large extent of the treatment group chose not to opt out of active
labor market policies
• Basic Income lowered participation tax rates by around 12 to 23
percentage points on average

15. Thank you!