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一攫
1.
Pythonで一攫千金
かわ 2010/06/26 ニコ生勉強会
2.
Kawa Kawa = {
'Twittwer' : '@kawa1128', 'Hatena' : 'id:kawa1128', 'NicoNico' : 'co70366', 'web' : ' http://www.kawa1128.jp/', }
3.
なぜ? ● 一家に一匹、きりんを買う時代です。 ● むしろ、ペンギンの方がいいですが、個人的には。 ●
いずれにしてもお金がかかる。 ● 一等前後賞で3億円とまでいかなくても。。。 ● かと言って41個のなかから5つって当たる気がしない。 よし、miniロトだ!!
4.
もしかして、、、、、 ● 何事も傾向と対策が重要です。(裏切ら
れることも多いです。) ● 適当に買って楽しむのも一興。 ● でも、実は、数字の出現頻度にはばらつ きがあるのでは? よし、Pythonで調べよう!!
5.
とりあえず、 ●
何はともあれ、データを引っ張ってこなければ。。。 スクレイパーをPythonで書いてみた。 Db部分も含めて、たった200行程度。 BeautifulSoup万歳!!
6.
結果 1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 75 93 86 88 87 79 86 90 77 102 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 106 83 93 95 80 98 97 89 96 96 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 90 101 99 101 91 88 95 92 89 97 31 91 Mean91.29 Sd 7.39 X^2 18.56(96%)
7.
結果 1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 4 3 2 1 3 6 6 5 5 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 6 6 6 0 4 1 7 9 6 31 3 Mean 4.16 Sd 1.86 X^2 25.96(70%)
8.
でも、でも、 ●
試行回数が増えれば、出現頻度は、ランダムになる はず! ● じゃあ、今まで多く出ていて、最近でていない数字を 狙えばよいか?
9.
さらに、さらに ●
出現頻度に偏りはなかった。 ● マルコフ連鎖を使ってみよう!!
10.
マルコフ連鎖? ●
マルコフ連鎖とは、確率過程の一種であるマルコフ過程の うち、とりうる状態が離散的(有限または可算)なもの(離散 状態マルコフ過程)をいう。また特に、時間が離散的なもの (時刻は添え字で表される)を指すことが多い(他に連続時 間マルコフ過程というものもあり、これは時刻が連続であ る)。マルコフ連鎖は、未来の挙動が現在の値だけで決定さ れ、過去の挙動と無関係である(マルコフ性)。各時刻にお いて起こる状態変化(遷移または推移)に関して、マルコフ 連鎖は遷移確率が過去の状態によらず、現在の状態のみ による系列である。特に重要な確率過程として、様々な分野 に応用される。 by Wikipwdia 詳しくはggrように!!
11.
ロジック ●
過去すべての出現頻度 ● ここ1ヶ月の出現頻度を引く ● 確率の高いものから、連鎖で6つ決定!
12.
コンクルージョン ミニロトをかったつもりになって、 それを貯金が一番早道。
年に2回くらい4等が当たるようです。
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