Introduction to Craven Capital LLC

Craven
Capital
Craven
Capital

Patient
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Positioned Patient
For Profit Capital
Positioned
For Profit

CRAVEN CAPITAL LLC
- Fortress Portfolio -

A Stable Strategy for Uncertain Times

www.cravencapital.com 1

Craven
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Fortress Portfolio Executive Summary
Overview
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Positioned
Monumental uncertainty exists in the global marketplace and will continue.
For Profit

• Financial crisis, emanating from excess and easy credit in the early 2000s…
• Morphed into a global banking crisis, which has…
• Expanded into an ongoing sovereign debt crisis

The Uncomfortable Realities:

We are navigating through the most severe balance sheet recession since the Great Depression

The interventionist actions of policy makers have arguably made the situation worse, and the
possibility exists for a second, and possibly more serious, global credit crisis / economic recession

Market uncertainty will continue as developed nations deleverage debt and adjust to the most serious
demographic transition in the history of mankind

Given the backdrop of Lehman, AIG, Madoff, the Eurozone and, more recently, MF Global and PFGBest,
it is hard to know who to trust with your investment dollars.

Objective
Our objective is to provide target returns 5%+ over the 10-year Treasury’s “risk-free” rate (approximately
8%-12% net of fees), with low levels of comparative risk

Competitive Edge
We utilize a combination of strict stock selection / acquisition to generate above average dividend yield
while managing risk & enhancing return through the diligent use of call and put option trading

Depth of Investing Experience
Our management team has a combined 50+ years of portfolio management experience, including
security selection and asset allocation for private clients’ portfolios.

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www.cravencapital.com

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Fortress Portfolio Investment Philosophy

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Expect the unexpected…know who you are dealing with
Positioned
For Profit
and where your money is!

We believe that:

• Investors have lost faith in banks and other traditional asset managers

Fortress Portfolio
• High-quality companies that pay dividends will be best positioned going forward both to survive
and thrive in an uncertain global environment

• Portfolios must be adequately prepared and positioned to profit from heightened volatility forecast
for the immediate future March 2012
• A reliable custodial relationship is vital to ensure maximum security and protection of assets

We are guided by core principles:

• We have a fiduciary duty to treat you with respect and provide high-level service and civility while
protecting your assets with the utmost care

• You cannot eat relative performance; therefore, we seek an absolute return on your investments

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Fortress Portfolio Methodology & Thinking
We look at the world & the markets from multiple levels, filtering the various and diverse
inputs to ascertain the appropriate action going forward.
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For Profit

It has been said that if you don’t We believe that if you don’t know
know where you’re going, you will where you are now, it’s impossible
probably end up somewhere else… to even know where you are going!

Knowledge Refined 4

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Patient
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WE BELIEVE THAT WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A SECULAR BEAR
For Profit
MARKET…SIMILAR TO THE 60s & 70s

DURING TIMES LIKE THESE, THE ONLY CERTAINTY IS UNCERTAINTY…
THE ONLY CONSTANT IS CHANGE!!!
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Craven
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THIS SECULAR BEAR MARKET COULD EXTEND FOR MOST,
Positioned
For Profit IF NOT ALL, OF THE CURRENT DECADE

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE...?
ONE THIS IS CERTAIN…MORE VOLATILITY IS INEVITABLE!
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Patient
P/E RATIOS HAVE A WAY TO GO….DOWN
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For Profit

PRICE / EARNINGS RATIOS WENT PARABOLIC IN THE LAST BULL MARKET
(1982 – 1999)

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IS IT REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT PRICE / EARNINGS RATIOS MAY GO EQUALLY PARABOLIC…
For Profit
IN REVERSE DURING THIS BEAR MARKET…

????

ESPECIALLY IN A “TRIPLE D” DEVELOPED WORLD….DOMINATED BY:
- DEBT DELEVERAGING -
- DESTRUCTIVE DEMOGRAPHICS -
- DOUBTFUL GOVERNMENT POLICIES -
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Fortress Portfolio Analysis & Timing

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From macro perspective to micro timing…
Positioned
For Profit

Is it any wonder that investors are rattled?

Graphs courtesy of Jeff Clark – S&A Short Report -

Wall St. wants you to believe you can’t time the market…
when they do it all the time!
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History may not repeat but it does tend to rhyme…
Positioned
For Profit

Short term technicals give reason
for concern…


We pay very close attention to what is happening in and to the market…

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Investors are flocking to the perceived “safety” of Treasuries…
Positioned
For Profit

Potential
Blow Off
Top?

When the interest rate is effectively zero, how
much higher can Treasuries go?


…but does it make sense to lend your money to the greatest debtor in history for 10 years
to receive 1.5% when the published inflation is running at almost double that amount?
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Fortress Portfolio Investment Philosophy

Patient
The Fortress Portfolio provides a sustainable
Capital
Positioned
For Profit
dividend flow, enhanced through
prudent & timely option trading

- Comprises 20 mega-cap “Fortress” stocks exhibiting the following general characteristics:

•
•
Fortress Portfolio
Dominate their marketplace
Derive consistent and reliable free cash flow
• Have a long history of dependable and in many cases, increasing dividends
• Are typically resistant to market shocks, defined as trading in a range of 20% +/-
March 2012
- Manages risk by writing covered calls within the following parameters:

• Target exercise price – 10 - 20% above prevailing market price (out of the money)
• Premium income - averaging 2% or higher of the acquisition price
• Frequency – 2x or more per calendar year, depending on market conditions

- Enhances returns through harvesting additional option premium by selling unleveraged naked puts

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Fortress Portfolio Investment Process

Enhanced risk-adjusted returns rely upon a combination of
Patient
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Positioned
stock selection, option writing and rigid sell discipline
For Profit

- Stock selection:

• Screen for key group of 20-30 “Fortress” stocks
• Formulate an ideal target price for each position
• Fortress Portfolio
Exercise discipline and patience by waiting for the market to provide the optimum buying opportunity

- Options trading / risk management:
March 2012
• Sell uncovered (naked) puts against target acquisition positions when market conditions dictate
• Sell covered calls against portfolio positions to generate additional premium income
• Employ stop losses (typically 20%) to provide downside market protection against severe downtown
• Trade volatility index (VIX) opportunistically to enhance protection under extreme conditions

- Sell discipline – positions to be held until:
• We are called away
• We are stopped out
• We determine the position’s characteristics are no longer consistent with our “Fortress” stock
selection standards
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Fortress Portfolio Risk Management / Controls

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Positioned
For Profit Management of risk is a core priority

• Position size:

• Rebalancing:
Fortress Portfolio
Limited to 5% of portfolio

As and when appropriate relative to position size

• Stop Loss: 20% stop loss per position (non-market) based on acquisition price
(may beMarch 2012 or tightened to <10% in extreme conditions)
converted to trailing

• Review / replace: When characteristics are no longer consistent with “Fortress” standard

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Fortress Portfolio Covered Call Writing Explained

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For Profit

The main option strategy used in our Fortress Portfolio is known as covered call writing. It is one of the best income
generating strategies available in the market today. By selling covered calls, you get other investors to pay you up
front for the right to buy your shares at a higher price. It is possible to generate income on each position as frequently
as 2-4 times per year, especially in volatile markets like we have now. It is considered to be a conservative, low-risk
strategy that can generate consistently high returns.

In a nutshell, the strategy involves buying a stock and selling someone else the right to buy it from you at a
higher price sometime in the future.

Example:
• You buy 1,000 shares of Intel for $25 / share ($25,000)
• You sell me an option to buy the stock from you for $28 on or before January 19, 2013
• I pay you $.50 (50 cents) per share for the right to buy from you until 1/19/13
• I am hoping the stock will increase above $28.50 between now and then (to cover my option price and provide a profit)
Scenario 1
• I am right and the stock increases to $29. I make $.50 per share ($29 - $28 + $.50 for the option)
• You make $3.50 per share ($28 - $25 + $.50) = 14% return in just over 6 months
• Including dividends received during that time ($.42) your total return is $3.92 per share = 15.7%
Scenario 2
• I am wrong and the stock does not reach or exceed $28 before 1/19/13. I lose the $.50 per share option price
• You keep your stock and the $.50 / share for the option sold = 2% return in just over 6 months (approx. 4% per year)
• Including dividends received during that time ($.42) your total return is $.92 per share = 3.68% (approx. 7.36% per year)
• You continue to own the stock and are able to sell another set of options to generate additional return

In both scenarios, you…the option seller…make a positive return 15

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Fortress Portfolio Naked Put Writing Explained

Patient
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Positioned
For Profit

A secondary strategy used in our Fortress Portfolio is known as naked put writing. Don’t worry, it is not as bad as it
sounds. In fact, it can be a very powerful strategy during volatile times like now. By selling naked puts, you get other
investors to pay you up front for the right to sell their shares to you at a certain price. It is considered to be an
effective, low-risk strategy for generating income from cash positions, without actually owning (that is, being “naked”)
the stock.

In a nutshell, the strategy involves collecting money now in return for giving someone the right to sell you
their stock at a certain price sometime in the future.
Example:
• I bought 1,000 shares of Intel for $20 / share ($20,000) during 2011. It is now trading at $25.
• I want to protect myself from the stock falling below my acquisition price of $20
• You sell me an option that entitles me to sell you my stock (put it to you) for $21 on or before January 19, 2013
• I pay you $.70 (70 cents) per share for that right as “insurance” to cover me in the event my stock falls in value below $21
• You are happy to own Intel at any price below $21
Scenario 1
• I am right and the stock decreases to $20. I paid you $.70 and sold to you for $21 so my gain is $.30 / share
• You are obligated to buy the shares from me for $21. Your cost, after allowing for the option premium, is $20.30
• You now own the stock, are entitled to the dividends and can write covered calls against your position
Scenario 2
• I am wrong and the stock does not fall in price before 1/19/13. I lose the $.70 per share option price that I paid you
• You had allocated $21,000 to buy the stock in the event that it was “put” to you, which it wasn’t
• You keep the $.70 / share for the option sold = 3.33% return in just over 6 months on your $21,000
• You are now able to use that money to sell another set of options to generate additional return

In the worst case outcome, you own the stock at a price which is attractive to you. In
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the best case, you made the equivalent of 6%+ per year on your committed cash.

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Fortress Portfolio Call / Put Selling In the Market

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We use volatility and fear to our advantage…
Positioned
For Profit

We look to sell covered calls here

We look to sell puts (and buy target
stocks) here


Patience will usually pay off…especially in a secular bear market.

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Fortress Portfolio Call / Put Selling in Action

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For Profit

This slides illustrates an actual client example in which both calls and puts were sold during 2011.

Fortress Portfolio - Writing Covered Calls / Selling Naked Puts - Illustrative Study: 3/25/11 – 12/22/11*

Symbol Company Name

Fortress Stocks
Target Alloc. Share No.
Fortress Portfolio
# Put Price Open

9/12/2011
Mth. Prem. Close

10/24/2011
Prof. Prem. Open

11/25/2011
Mth. Prem. Close

12/22/2011
Prof. Prem. Totals

INTC Intel 20.83 25,000 1200 12 20.00 1.30 Jan 1,560 0.33 0.97 1,164 0.32 Jan 384 0.04 0.3 336
MDT Medtronic 31.25 25,000 800 8 31.00 2.20 Jan 1,760 0.92 1.28 1,024 0.71 Jan 568 0.09 0.6 496
MSFT Microsoft 25.00 25,000 1000 10 25.00 2.30 Jan 2,300 0.65 1.65 1,650 1.29 Jan 1,290 0.35 0.9 940

PBCT Peoples United Bank 12.50 25,000 2000 March 2012
20 12.00 1.66 Feb 3,320 0.90 0.76 1,520 0.90 Feb 1,800 0.30 0.6 1,200

PEP Pepsico Inc. 62.50 25,000 400 4 62.50 5.00 Jan 2,000 2.76 2.24 896 2.20 Jan 880 0.20 2 800
PFE Pfizer 17.86 25,000 1400 14 17.00 1.00 Jan 1,400 0.44 0.56 784 0.43 Jan 602 0.03 0.4 560
PG Proctor & Gamble 62.50 25,000 400 4 62.50 3.60 Jan 1,440 1.42 2.18 872 2.52 Jan 1,008 0.18 2.3 936
TOT Total 50.00 25,000 500 5 45.00 4.80 Jan 2,400 1.50 3.3 1,650 2.05 Jan 1,025 0.35 1.7 850
STO Statoil 20.00 25,000 1200 12 20.00 1.85 Jan 2,220 0.35 1.5 1,800 0.35 Jan 420 0.10 0.3 300

225,000 89 18,400 11,360 7,977 6,418

Income $18,400 $11,360 $7,977 $6,418 $17,778

Yield 8.18% 5.05% 3.55% 2.85% 7.90%

Buy
Symbol Company Name Alloc. Share No. # Call Price Open Mth. Prem. Close Prof. Prem.
Price

3/25/2011 8/5/2011 12/19/2011

VXX 29.80 29,800 1000 10 32.00 5.65 Dec 5,650 Called 2,200 5,650

Income 254,800 $7,850 $25,628

Yield 26.34% 10.06%

* The above chart is intended to illustrate the trading methodology over a stated period. It is not intended to portray prospective returns. Past performance is never a guarantee of future performance and it should
not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities / transactions in the above illustration.

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Fortress Portfolio Performance

• Each portfolio is customized as to timing / positioning so performance will vary from client to client
Patient
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For Profit
• Target 5%+ above 10 year Treasury (approximately 8-10% net of fees)

• Actual cash on cash returns per position can be significantly higher

Fortress Portfolio - Illustrative Composite: Performance from 5/17/10 - 4/27/12 *

Fortress Portfolio
Mkt. Mkt. Divs. Call Total Opt. Total Div. + Stock Value % Inc. in Total Port. Total Port. Val Total Port. Val
Buy Date Share Total Div.
Symbol Company Name Div. Yield Price at Price at Alloc. Paid / Prem. / Prem. Opt. Prem. Change Stock Growth (ex. (inc.. Divs/Ex. (inc.. Divs &
Price Acquired No. Income
5/17/10 4/27/12 Share Sh. Income Income since acq. price Divs/Opt. Prem.) Prem.) Prem.)

Fortress Stocks
ADP Automatic Data Processing $1.58 2.77 42.12 57 41.67 5/18/2010 250,000 6000 2.57 15,420 2.57 15,420 30,840 15.33 36.80% 342,000.00 357,420.00 372,840.00
CL Colgate Palmolive $2.32 2.35 83.81 98.55 62.50 250,000 4000 0 0 0 36.05 57.68% 250,000.00 250,000.00 250,000.00
HSY Hershey $1.52 2.25 48.05 67.48 50.00 5/17/2010 250,000 5000 2.40 12,000 2.40 12,000 24,000 17.48 34.96% 337,400.00 349,400.00 361,400.00
INTC
JNJ
Intel
Johnson & Johnson
$0.84
$2.28
2.96
3.52
22.02
63.88
28.41
64.8 March 2012
20.83
50.00
5/20/2010 250,000
250,000
12000
5000
1.31 15,720
0
1.31 15,720
0
31,440
0
7.58
14.80
36.37%
29.60%
340,920.00
250,000.00
356,640.00
250,000.00
372,360.00
250,000.00
KFT Kraft $1.16 2.94 30.55 39.4 27.78 7/2/2010 250,000 9000 2.03 18,270 2.03 18,270 36,540 11.62 41.84% 354,600.00 372,870.00 391,140.00
KO Coca Cola $2.04 2.66 53.41 76.82 62.50 5/17/2010 250,000 4000 3.27 13,080 3.27 13,080 26,160 14.32 22.91% 307,280.00 320,360.00 333,440.00
LLY Eli Lilly $1.96 4.72 34.01 41.49 31.25 250,000 8000 0 0 0 0.00 0.00% 250,000.00 250,000.00 250,000.00
MCD McDonalds $2.80 2.86 70.14 97.88 62.50 250,000 4000 0 0 0 0.00 0.00% 250,000.00 250,000.00 250,000.00
MDT Medtronic $0.97 2.56 42.53 37.93 31.25 8/24/2010 250,000 8000 1.65 13,200 1.65 13,200 26,400 6.68 21.38% 303,440.00 316,640.00 329,840.00
MO Altria $1.64 5.08 21.70 32.3 20.83 5/20/2010 250,000 12000 2.75 33,000 2.75 33,000 66,000 11.47 55.04% 387,600.00 420,600.00 453,600.00
MSFT Microsoft $0.80 2.50 28.94 32 25.00 5/26/2010 250,000 10000 1.17 11,700 1.17 11,700 23,400 7.00 28.00% 320,000.00 331,700.00 343,400.00
PBCT Peoples United Bank $0.63 4.71 14.80 13.38 12.50 10/26/2010 250,000 20000 0.95 19,000 0.95 19,000 38,000 0.88 7.04% 267,600.00 286,600.00 305,600.00
PEP Pepsico Inc. $2.06 3.07 66.75 67.05 62.50 5/26/2010 250,000 4000 3.50 14,000 3.50 14,000 28,000 4.55 7.28% 268,200.00 282,200.00 296,200.00
PFE Pfizer $0.88 3.78 16.11 23.3 17.86 5/17/2010 250,000 14000 1.38 19,320 1.38 19,320 38,640 5.44 30.48% 326,200.00 345,520.00 364,840.00
PG Proctor & Gamble $2.10 3.21 63.38 65.5 62.50 5/20/2010 250,000 4000 4.11 16,440 4.11 16,440 32,880 3.00 4.80% 262,000.00 278,440.00 294,880.00
TOT Total $1.30 2.57 48.15 50.49 50.00 5/17/2010 250,000 5000 4.79 23,950 4.79 23,950 47,900 0.49 0.98% 252,450.00 276,400.00 300,350.00
VZ Verizon $2.00 4.97 28.66 40.23 31.25 5/17/2010 250,000 8000 3.93 31,440 3.93 31,440 62,880 8.98 28.74% 321,840.00 353,280.00 384,720.00
WMT Walmart $1.46 2.47 52.73 59 50.00 2/25/2010 250,000 5000 2.46 12,300 2.46 12,300 24,600 9.00 18.00% 295,000.00 307,300.00 319,600.00
XOM Exxon Mobil $1.88 2.18 63.27 86.19 62.50 5/17/2010 250,000 4000 3.20 12,800 3.20 12,800 25,600 23.69 37.90% 344,760.00 357,560.00 370,360.00

64.14 6/1/2010 5,000,000 281,640 281,640 563,280 6,031,290.00 6,312,930.00 6,594,570.00
Av. Yld. 3.21
Inc. / Yld. 5.63% 5.63% $563,280 20.63% 26.26% 31.89%

* The above chart is intended to illustrate the trading methodology over a stated period. It is not intended to portray prospective returns. Past performance is never a guarantee of future performance and it should not be assumed that
recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities / transactions in the above illustration.
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Fortress Portfolio Sample Fortress Companies

Patient
Capital
- Typical Fortress Stock Characteristics -
Positioned
For Profit

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP)
• Technology-based outsourcing solutions to employers, vehicle retailers and manufacturers worldwide
• Record of consecutively increasing dividends for 36 years
• Increased dividend payout 14.5% annually over the past 10 years

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Fortress Portfolio
• Research, development, manufacture and sale of health care products worldwide
• Record of consecutively increasing dividends for 49 years
March 2012
• Increased dividend payout 13% annually over the past 10 years

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
• Develops, manufactures, licenses and supports software products and services for computing
devices worldwide
• Record of consecutively increasing dividends for past 6 years
• Increased dividend payout 11.4% annually over the past 5 years

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
• Engages in exploration, production, sale and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; manufacture,
sale and transportation of petroleum products
• Record of consecutively increasing dividends for the past 29 years
• Increased dividend payout 7.1% annually for the past 10 years
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Fortress Portfolio Client Profile

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For Profit

Clients typically exhibit some or all of the following characteristics:

• Average Account Size: $500,000 - $2,000,000

• Optimal Account Size: $5,000,000

• Client Profile: - Risk averse but desiring additional return beyond Treasuries / Munis.
- Uncertain about current economic environment (deflation vs. inflation)
- Worried about current political policies and directions
- Wary of “Wall Street” banks and wire-houses
- Seeking guidance and direction but agreeable to discretionary manager
- Prefer to own individual stocks as opposed to funds / structured products
- Realistic in their expectations of return
- May be financially sophisticated or unsophisticated but open to learning

• Client Profile Summary: Outlines the type of questions we typically ask of new clients

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Fortress Portfolio Client Profile

Patient
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For Profit

The better the questions, the more appropriate the solutions!
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Fortress Portfolio Next Steps

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Typical new client “on-boarding” experience…
Positioned
For Profit

1. Personal / phone conference: During which the concept and practice is explained. If done via phone conference, it can be
accompanied by a simultaneous slide or web presentation and / or access to our website.
Personal conferences are either held in our offices or offsite at the client’s convenience.

2. Paperwork: The necessary data is collected from the clients who also provide current account statements
(if they are moving accounts from a broker / advisor). The relevant account opening account
opening paperwork is prepared / submitted (along with firm ADVs) to the client for review
and execution.

3. Asset transfer Initiated: Signed paperwork is received, reviewed internally and then submitted to the qualified
custodian (typically Charles Schwab & Co.) for their review. Upon acceptance, Schwab will
initiate an internal request to the existing broker / agent to transfer the account assets to the
new client account. This is usually a painless process which requires no client involvement.

4. Account opened: Once the account paperwork is reviewed and approved by the custodian, the client account
is opened and an account number issued.

5. Asset transfer complete: Contemporaneously with the account opening process, the asset transfer request form is
submitted to the current custodian (typically via the ACAT system). Depending upon the
speed and diligence of the transferring custodian, the assets are typically delivered within 5-
10 business days.

6. Management commences: Once the account is opened and the assets transfer is complete (or wire received), the client
is informed and formal investment management commences. Management fees are 1% of
assets under management which are typically paid monthly in advance via direct debit from
the account.

7. Online access: Clients have complete access to all account activity via their online Schwab link. They can
see all transactions in real time should they wish to do so. In addition, they can follow our
current (sometimes irreverent) thinking on our website blog titled “It’s 3 a.m. and…”.
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Fortress Portfolio Client Asset Security

Patient
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Positioned
For Profit Finally…a word about the security of client assets….

At Craven Capital we are always concerned about counterparty risk at every level:

Adviser
Custodian
Company
Exchange

We urge our clients to ask questions of us and of all their advisers. We live in challenging times and we
believe that clients should challenge those who provide services to them to ensure that their interests
and beliefs are aligned and that their thinking is current and coherent…so that they can respond to the
constant changes that we are all facing.

We also believe that clients should be consciously concerned about institutional risk and its potential impact
upon the assets within the custody of those institutions. In this regard, we try to monitor institutions with
whom our clients have custodial relationships to make sure that, to the fullest extent possible, their
assets are where they should be…and not “hypothecated” in support of the custodian’s trading desk or
their favorite prime brokerage clients. While we cannot control the markets, we can at least try to be
certain that our client assets are as secure and protected as they can be.

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Fortress Portfolio Contact Details

Patient
Capital
Positioned
For Profit

Questions or account inquiries?
Please contact:
Brian Macnish
Managing Principal

Craven Capital, LLC
11 Hanover Square
6th Floor
New York NY 10005

Ph. 212-797-0217
Email: bmacnish@cravencapital.com

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Introduction to Craven Capital LLC

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Introduction to Craven Capital LLC