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ClearSky Advisors Ontario PV market outlook 2011
- 1. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Ontario
PV
Market
Outlook
Demand,
Market
Forecast,
LTEP,
Supply,
Outlook
- 2. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Disclaimer
The
materials
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
provides
in
this
publication
will
reflect
ClearSky
Advisors’
judgment
based
upon
the
information
available
to
ClearSky
Advisors.
ClearSky
Advisors
disclaims
any
other
representations
or
warranties,
express
or
implied,
including
without
limitation
any
implied
warranties
of
merchantability,
fitness
for
a
particular
purpose
or
non-‐infringement.
This
report
is
based
on
sources
believed
to
be
reliable,
but
no
independent
verification
has
been
made
nor
is
its
accuracy
or
completeness
guaranteed.
ClearSky
Advisors
is
an
independent
research
firm
that
does
and
seeks
to
do
business
with
all
stakeholders
within
the
industries
covered
in
ClearSky
Advisors’
research.
Investors
and
decision-‐makers
should
consider
ClearSky
Advisors’
research
as
only
a
single
factor
in
making
their
key
decisions.
- 3. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Key
Points
LTEP
&
Ontario’s
Electricity
Supply
Ontario
PV
Market
Forecast
Supply
Situation
Issues
to
Consider
- 4. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Ontario
Electricity
Demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Electricity
(TWh)
Year
Ontario's
Electricity
Generation
Forecast
2010-‐2018
Biomass
Generation
Solar
Generation
Wind
Generation
Coal
Generation
Natural
Gas
Generation
Hydroelectric
Generation
Nuclear
Generation
Required
Generation
Sources:
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
2011;
OPA,
IPSP
Planning
and
Consultation
Overview
2011;
OPA,
Ontario’s
Long
Term
Energy
Plan
2010;
IESO,
18
Month
Outlook
December
2011
- 5. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Generation
Capacity
2010-‐2018
2010
(MWac)
2018
(MWac)
%
change
Solar
185
2,580
1,295%
Wind
1,428
7,302
411%
Bio
energy
174
818
370%
Coal
4,484
0
N/A
Nuclear
11,446
8,507
-‐25.7%
- 6. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Status
for
solar
2010
(cum-‐dc)
2011e
(cum-‐dc)
Remaining
contracted
LTEP
(dc)
RESOP
189
384
126
N/A
FIT/mFIT
24
133
1,653
N/A
Total
213
517
1,778
2,967
- 7. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Our
Scenarios
• Solar
PV
given
larger
role
within
LTEP
• Increased
grid
capacity
• FIT
rates
attractive
High
Case
• Solar
PV
target
as
per
LTEP
• Modestly
improved
build-‐out
rates
• FIT
program
rules/rates
design
to
meet
LTEP
Expected
Case
• Continued
grid
constraints
• Reduction
in
new
contract
awards
• Less
political
support
Low
Case
- 8. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Seven
Year
Outlook
2011-‐2018
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
MW
dc
Ontario
PV
Installation
Volume
(2011-‐2018)
High
Case
Low
Case
2011:
299
-‐
326
2012:
418
-‐
610
- 9. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
2012
Equipment
Demand
(dc)
By
Program
RESOP
58
FIT
377
microFIT
76
By
Domestic
Content
None
58
40-‐50%
52
60%
401
2012
Volume
511MW
- 10. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
So,
a
lot
remains
to
be
built
–
what
about
supply?
- 11. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
2011
in
a
Nutshell
World-‐Wide
Overcapacity
Falling
Prices
Casualties
Ontario
Overcapacity
Falling
Prices
Casualties?
- 12. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Suppliers
Module
Manufacturers
ON
facility
13-‐14
3rd
Party
9-‐10
ON
Silicon
2-‐3
Total
24-‐27
Inverter
Manufacturing
ON
facility
7-‐8
3rd
Party
5-‐6
ON
Silicon
N/A
Total
12-‐14
No
Supply
Shortage
Expected
- 13. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Will
manufacturers
stay?
- 14. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Policy
determines
1.
Policy
in
support
of
domestic
supply
2.
A
market
beyond
LTEP
is
visible
- 15. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Drivers
and
constraints
beyond
LTEP
Reality
Drives
Policy
- 16. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
“Uncontrollable”
Factors
• Biggest
driver
of
electricity
demand
• Current
LTEP
based
on
modest
growth
Economic
Growth
• Refurbishment
of
existing
generators
delayed
• May
lead
to
to
increased
demand
for
PV
Nuclear
Delays
• If
US
imposes
anti-‐dumping
measures
against
Chinese
made
products
• Canada
seen
as
possible
base
for
US
market
Trade
Complaints
- 17. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Controllable
Factors
• Cost
of
a
nuclear
reactor
may
not
be
in
ratepayer
interest
• Increased
role
for
PV
in
LTEP
• 2.5
GW
nuclear
=
1.85
GW
PV
+
5.2GW
Wind
+
0.6GW
Bio
No
New
Nuclear
• Government
decides
reduced
role
for
wind
in
LTEP
• Increased
role
for
PV
• 1GW
wind
=
2.37GW
PV
Less
Wind
• Government
has
a
goal
of
500,000
EVs
by
2020
• EV
charging
will
drive
electricity
demand
• 500,000
EV
=
1.2
GW
PV
Addition
of
EVs
to
grid
• Cost-‐effective
from
ratepayer
perspective
• Will
require
transmission
• 7
year
to
plan-‐build
Procurement
of
hydro
from
QC
- 18. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Final
word
Manufacturers,
Developers
- 19. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Recommendations
• Upstream:
Explore
ways
of
cutting
cost
in
the
silicon
value-‐chain
• Downstream:
Collaborate
to
help
customers
find
ways
of
cutting
logistics
&
labour
cost
•
Taylor
organization
and
offering
to
the
distinct
segment
preferences
in
Ontario
Manufacturers
• Make
the
most
out
of
your
existing
contracts
• Explore
acquisitions
and
alternative
business
models
that
give
access
to
additional
pipeline
• Collaborate
with
suppliers
to
help
reduce
installed
cost
Developers/
Investors
- 20. ©
2011
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
Thank
You
Jon
E
Worren
877-‐333-‐5821
x502
jon@clearskyadvisors.com
ClearSky
Advisors
Inc.
215
Spadina
Ave,
Suite
419
Toronto,
ON
M5T
2C7