Weitere ähnliche Inhalte Ähnlich wie 090519 The Shape of Things to Come: Learning to See Human Capital Markets (18) Kürzlich hochgeladen (20) 090519 The Shape of Things to Come: Learning to See Human Capital Markets1. The Shape of Things to Come
Understanding Recruiting Markets
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3. Module 1: Spiky and Flat
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4. Agenda: Spiky and Flat
• Lively Conversation on Demographic Changes
• Deliver Meaty Demographic Detail
• There Is No National Anything
• Define Opportunity
• Offer Solutions / Framework
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5. Declining Fertility Rates
1950 2007
8.00
6.7 6.9
6.00
5.9 5.9
5.5
4.00
3.5
3.1
2.5 2.7
2.00 2.4
2
1.5
0 Sub Saharan Africa Middle East / N. Africa Asia Latin America / Carribean N. America Europe
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6. Basic Dynamic
Population Growth Rate
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Time
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7. Age Distribution
Working Age
Working Age
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8. Demographic Transition
Digital, Cell, Internet, Technology
Other
Transitional
Forces Economic Miracle
Demographic Gift
Youth
Demographic
Investment Sustainable Growth
1945 1960 2010 2025
GDP Per Capita Growth Rate
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9. Non-Industrial World
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10. Industrial World
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11. India
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12. One Generation: Pakistan
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13. Pyramids
• Embedded Historical View
• Familiar
• “They’re Everywhere”
• Family
• Community
• Organizations
• Government
• Invalid Assumption
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14. Developmental Stages
70
55
40
25
10
Growth Maturity Decline Dying
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15. Other Shapes
70
55
40
25
10
Adolescence Revitalization Layoffs Failed Renewals
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16. Other Shapes??
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17. Recap: Opportunity
• Organizational Shape Defines Opportunity Flow
• Opportunity Availability Defines Growth
• Opportunity Consolidates With Tenure
• Inexperience = Agility + Resilience = Growth
• Experimentation and Failure Essential For Survival
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18. There Is No Nation
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19. Immigration
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20. Immigrants Native Born
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21. Where Immigrants Go
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22. Homeownership
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23. Population Density
Source: Department of Commerce
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24. Where The Roads Are
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25. Population Plus GDP
Source: Yale – G-Econ Group
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26. 12 Mega Regions
Source: Who’s Your City
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27. College Degree Distribution
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28. How Obama Won
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29. Red Blue by County
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30. Prime Industry
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31. Ethnicity
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32. Unemployment By County
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33. Regionalization of Work
Source: Who’s Your City?
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34. Over 65 by MSA
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35. Employment to Population Ratio
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36. Median Earnings
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37. Life Expectancy
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38. Commute Time
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39. US Workforce vs Population
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40. Who Moves
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41. Domestic Migration
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42. Developmental Stages
70
55
40
25
10
Growth Maturity Decline Dying
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43. No One Story, No One Nation
• Fencepost is the Midwest.
• Young are leaving fast
• Cities saved by immigrants
• Floating Box is Manufacturing, Metals, Agri
• Young are Gone
• Remnants are cash cows
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44. Other Shapes
70
55
40
25
10
Adolescence Revitalization Layoffs Failed Renewals
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45. Take Aways #1
• Generalizations Fail
• Paradoxical Trends
• Shrink while Growing
• Diverse Within Structure
• Spiky and Flat
• The Kids Are Leaving The Middle
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46. Take Aways #2
• Let’s Discuss Conventional Wisdom
• Attrition is Bad
• Experience Is Good
• Circle of Trusted Advisors
• Retention Is Good
• Referral Programs are Smart
• HR/Recruiting Are Uniform
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47. Take Aways 3
• Regional Culture Trumps National
• Many, Many Niches, All Different
• Elements of Culture
• Ethnicity
• Life Expectancy
• Manners and Customs
• Geography, Traffic, Politics, Density
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48. BREAK
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49. Context
Module 2:
Diagnosis Application
Set Ideals
Understand
Understand The Basic Shapes
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50. Pyramids
http://www.china-profile.com/data/ani_ceu_pop.htm
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51. © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 51
52. Grant County, ND Orange County, FL
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53. Atlanta Salt Lake City
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54. Mansfield, OH San Francisco
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55. San Antonio Detroit
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56. Boston United States
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58. Fresno California Sacramento
Bakersfield San Diego Chico
58
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59. Austin Texas College Station
Dallas San Antonio Houston
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60. Honolulu Hawaii
Kauai Maui 60
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61. Pittsburgh Cleveland Detroit
Grand Rapids Bloomington Flint
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62. Boston New York, NY Philadelphia
Atlanta Washington, DC Baltimore
62
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63. Denver Seattle Portland,
San Jose Oakland Los Angeles
63
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64. Migration
Life Expectancy Ethnicity
Education Shaping Baby Boom
Factors
College Town Industry
Religion Manners
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65. BREAK
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66. Diagnostics
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67. Making Your Own
Charts
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68. BREAK
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69. Where Opportunity Goes
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70. Where Everything Else Flows
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71. ■High Growth
■Hierarchical
■Innovative
■Entrepreneurial
■Startups, Bio-Tech
■Modest Growth
■Distributed
■Incremental Improvement
■Procedural
■New Fortune 500
■Very Low Growth
■Increasingly Hierarchical
■Opportunity Consolidates at Top
■Procedural
■Old Media, New Mfg, Retail
■Death Spiral
■Punitive Cultural Enforcement
■No Retention of the Young
■Grasping
■Autos, Metals, Old Mfg
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72. Your Goals
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73. Geo Shape
Current Shape
Desired End State
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74. © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 74
75. © 2009 Two Color Hat, Inc., Bodega Bay, CA 94923 www.twocolorhat.com 415.683.0775 john@twocolorhat.com 75
76. Wrap Up
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