A comparison of voters and party elites: evidence from political surveys in Greece, Ioannis Andreadis, 1st Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, June 16-18 2011, Guinness Storehouse Conference Centre, Dublin, Ireland

1. A comparison of voters and party elites:
evidence from political surveys in Greece
Ioannis Andreadis
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
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2. Major Greek political parties
• New Democracy (ND)
– Right-wing conservative party (main
opposition)
– Has ruled Greece from 1974 to 1981, from
1990 to 1993 and from 2004 until 2009.
• Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement
(PASOK)
– Left-wing socialist party (current government)
– Has ruled Greece during the rest of the years
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3. Data Sources
• Comparative Candidates Survey (CCS)
– 195 ND and PASOK candidates
– web based survey during the beginning of 2010
• Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES)
– telephone interviews at the end of 2009
– 1022 filled questionnaires
• 744 have answered what party they have voted for
• 594 have replied that they have voted for PASOK or ND
• European Parliament Election Study 2009, Voter
Study (PIREDEU)
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4. Satisfaction with Democracy
• On the whole, are you very satisfied, fairly
satisfied, not very satisfied, or not at all
satisfied with the way democracy works in
Greece?
• Previous research on voters
– economic difficulties reduce satisfaction
– gap in satisfaction with democracy between
winners and losers
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5. Candidates’ SWD 2007-2009
PASOK 2009 53%
PASOK 2007 50%
ND 2009 37%
ND 2007 71%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
not very/not at all satisfied very/fairly satisfied
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6. Satisfaction with Democracy
ND voters 25%
ND candidates 37%
PASOK voters 40%
PASOK candidates 53%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
not very/not at all satisfied very/fairly satisfied
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7. Most important problem
Reported problems Voters Candidates
Economy / 65.1% 75%
Economic crisis
Unemployment 15.1% 6%
Wasted public 8.2% 9%
money / Corruption
Other 11.6% 10%
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8. What happens today?
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9. Greek version of Spain's
'Indignados'
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10. Voters’ Left-Right self-placement
50
45 PASOK x: 4.79, m: 5, var: 4.3 Voter positioned on 6:
40
ND x: 7.4, m: 8, var: 3.5 From PASOK: |6-4.79|=1.21
35
From ND: |6-7.4|=1.4
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Left 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Right
ND voters PASOK voters
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11. Left/Right Placement
Q1 Q2 Q3 IQR Mode M%
PASOK Candidates SP 2 3 4 2 3 31,9%
PASOK Candidates PP 3 4 5 2 4 36,2%
PASOK Voters SP 4 5 5 1 5 47,7%
PASOK Voters PP 4 5 5 1 5 46,9%
ND Candidates SP 5 6 8 3 5 25,5%
ND Candidates PP 6 7 8 2 8 34,0%
ND Voters SP 6 8 9 3 5/10 21,5%
ND Voters PP 6 8 10 4 10 25,8%
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12. Income and wealth should be
redistributed to ordinary people
ND voters
ND candidates
PASOK voters
PASOK candidates
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree
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13. Politics should abstain from
intervening in the economy
ND voters
ND candidates
PASOK voters
PASOK candidates
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree
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14. Women should be free to decide on
matters of abortion
ND voters
ND candidates
PASOK voters
PASOK candidates
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree
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15. Same-sex marriages should be
prohibited by law
ND voters
ND candidates
PASOK voters
PASOK candidates
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree
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16. People who break the law should
be given stiffer sentences
ND voters
ND candidates
PASOK voters
PASOK candidates
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree
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17. Immigrants should be required to
adapt to the customs of Greece
ND voters
ND candidates
PASOK voters
PASOK candidates
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
agree-strongly agree neither agree nor disagree disagree - strongly disagree
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18. Conclusions
• Economic crisis is the most important
problem facing Greece today (everyone)
• This has affected SWD (voters and losers)
• Candidates are on the left of their voters
• Voters’ self placement = party placement
– Economic left/right: candidates more extreme
– Libertarian – authoritarian: candidates on the
left of their voters
• Evidence in favor of robust statistics use
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