Sustainable agriculture under climate change in the Aral Sea Basin. Maryse Bourgault
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Presentation from the WCCA 2011 event held in Brisbane, Australia.
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Sustainable agriculture under climate change in the Aral Sea Basin. Maryse Bourgault
- 1. Sustainable agriculture under climate change in the Aral Sea Basin Maryse Bourgault1*, C.A. Madramootoo1, H.A. Webber1, G. Stulina2, M. Horst2, D.L. Smith1 1. Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, McGill University * Current address: CSIRO, Plant Industry, Climate Adaptation Flagship, St. Lucia, Australia 2. Central Asia Scientific Research Institute of Irrigation (SANIIRI)
- 2. Outline • The Aral Sea ecological disaster and humanitarian crisis • Socio-politico-economic context of agriculture in Uzbekistan • Possible solutions: – Institutions for water management and other social changes (not covered here) – Surface irrigation technologies – Crop rotations, choices and diversification of agricultural production
- 4. 1964 1987 1997 2008 NASA
- 7. Humanitarian crisis • Water and food contamination from water pollution and dust storms • Incidence of diseases increased in terms of folds rather than percentages • Lack of modern facilities • Depression and mental health issues
- 9. Climate Change • Expected temperature increases in the basin: likely to lead to heat stress • Conflicting evidence for precipitation changes
- 11. Climate Change • Expected temperature increases in the basin: likely to lead to heat stress • Conflicting evidence for precipitation changes • Melting of glaciers: earlier and greater runoff in the spring • Very likely increases in the frequency of heavy precipitation events: flash floods and landslides Savoskul et al. 2003
- 13. Uzbek agriculture • Low governmental investment in agriculture • State farms and agricultural assets • Quotas for cotton and wheat • Large uneducated rural population
- 15. Regulated Deficit Irrigation •When to irrigate? Depletion factor 0% 100% threshold Field Moderate Large Recommended Wilting Capacity Stress Stress Point Slide by Heidi Webber
- 18. Alternate Furrow Irrigation versus Conventional Every Furrow Irrigation 2003 2004 Parameter of interest Alternate Every P value Alternate Every P value furrow furrow furrow Furrow Yield (kg ha-1) 656 692 0.3113 832 826 0.8276 Number of seeds per 6.9 7.1 0.1023 6.6 6.8 0.0441 pod 100 seed weight (g) 24.3 24.1 0.5972 19.1 20.0 0.0367 Pods per plant 25.2 28.3 0.1379 9.7 10.2 0.2198 Harvest index (%) 0.302 0.346 0.1339 0.306 0.284 0.2486 Stem Water Potential (bars) Before irrigation -10.2 -10.0 0.5025 -8.1 -8.0 0.0554 events After irrigation -8.9 -8.2 0.0027 -7.7 -7.5 0.0346 events Stomatal conductance (mmol m-2 sec-1) Before irrigation 221.0 233.5 0.1409 357.5 330.3 0.0947 events After irrigation 316.9 364.4 <0.0001 449.0 461.7 0.1410 events
- 21. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
- 22. Inoculated Control
- 26. Conclusions • Physical environment is already under stress and vulnerable • The socio-economic context of agriculture in the region is specific and has implications for the introduction of new technologies • In the short term, introduction of legumes in crop rotations • Crop diversification to decrease vulnerability to lower irrigation water availability
- 27. Acknowledgments Prof. Don Smith Prof. Philippe Seguin Prof. Chandra A. Madramootoo Dr. Heidi Webber Catherine Senecal Nicholas Stampfli Robert Baker Misha Horst Galina Stulina Dr. Victor Dukhovny all the field staff in Uzbekistan Brace Center for Water Resources Management Fonds Quebecois de Recherche en Nature et Technologies
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Salinization of land is quite widespread.Salt not snow.Vegetation is being replaced by halophytic plants.
- Salt crust on what looks otherwise like good soil.
- 5 million people living in this area.Developing countries conditions of living.Rampant unemployment (but unable to confirm this); fisheries closed.
- Changes in timing of runoff have important implications for irrigated agricultureNeed to face the fact that there are chances that irrigation withdrawals will need to be drastically reduced; previously irrigated land will need to be produced on residual soil moisture.Physical system is highly vulnerable at the present without the further uncertainties that climate change will add.
- Changes in timing of runoff have important implications for irrigated agricultureNeed to face the fact that there are chances that irrigation withdrawals will need to be drastically reduced; previously irrigated land will need to be produced on residual soil moisture.Physical system is highly vulnerable at the present without the further uncertainties that climate change will add.
- Provides 30% of the GDP and 60% of foreign exchange earnings, but gets 4% of government spending.Irrigation infrastructure is in great need of maintenanceAgricultural system is well organized and streamlined, but not flexible and does not foster innovation