A presentation from the WCCA 2011 event held in Brisbane, Australia.

1. ADOPT: Adoption and
Diffusion Outcome
Prediction Tool.
Geoff Kuehne (CSIRO) Rick Llewellyn (CSIRO)
Perry Dolling (DAFWA) David Pannell (UWA)
Roger Wilkinson (VicDPI) Mike Ewing (CRC FFI)

2. Aims
• Producing a tool and process to
Predict predict likely rate and level of
adoption for specific practices
• A tool to help inform R,D & E
Inform
strategies
• Making adoption and diffusion
Engage considerations more available,
understandable and applicable

3. Aims
• Producing a tool and process to
Predict predict likely rate and level of adoption
for specific practices
• A tool to help inform R,D & E
Inform strategies
• Making adoption and diffusion
Engage considerations more available,
understandable and applicable

4. Aims
• Producing a tool and process to
Predict predict likely rate and level of adoption
for specific practices
• A tool to help inform R,D & E
Inform
strategies
• Making adoption and diffusion
Engage considerations more available,
understandable and applicable

5. What’s wanted

6. What’s wanted
Ongoing demand
Past attempts –
nothing or guesswork

8. The Literature

9. The Literature
Grilliches (1957)
Lindner (1987)
Feder & Umali (1993)
Rogers (2003)
Pannell et al. (2006)

10. POPULATION
Population-specific Relative Advantage
influences on the for the Population
ability to learn about
the Innovation
Learnability
Relative Advantage
Characteristics of
of the Innovation
the Innovation
INNOVATION

11. RELATIVE ADVANTAGE
Population-specific Relative Advantage
influences on the
LEARNING
for the population
ability to Learn about
the innovation
Learnability
Relative Advantage
characteristics of
of the innovation
the innovation

12. Importance of RA

13. ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
Learning of
Relative
Advantage
Relative
Advantage
Peak Adoption
Level
Time to Peak
Adoption

14. ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
• Ease &
Convenience
10. Advisory
support
11.Group
involvement
12. Relevant
existing skills and
knowledge
13. Innovation
awareness
7. Trialing ease
Learning of
Trialability of
Relative
Innovation
8. Innovation Advantage
complexity
Relative
Advantage
Relative
Advantage of
the Innovation
Peak Adoption 22. Ease &
Level convenience
Time to Peak
Adoption

15. ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
• Risk
• Risk
10. Advisory
support
Orientation
11.Group
involvement
3. Risk
orientation
12. Relevant
existing skills and
knowledge
13. Innovation
awareness
7. Trialing ease
Learning of
Trialability of
Relative
Innovation
8. Innovation Advantage
complexity
Relative
Advantage
Relative
Advantage of
the Innovation
Peak Adoption 22. Ease &
Level convenience 21. Risk
Time to Peak
Adoption

16. ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
Conceptual Framework
• Environment
2. Environmental
• Time for
10. Advisory
support
orientation
environmental
11.Group
involvement
3. Risk
orientation
benefits to be
12. Relevant
existing skills and
realised
knowledge
13. Innovation
awareness
• Environmental
orientation
7. Trialing ease
Learning of
Trialability of
Relative
Innovation
8. Innovation Advantage
complexity
Relative
Advantage
19. Environment
20. Time for
Relative environmental
Advantage of benefits to be
the Innovation realised
Peak Adoption 22. Ease &
Level convenience 21. Risk
Time to Peak
Adoption

17. ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
• Profit in year Relative Advantage
used
10. Advisory
2. Environmental
orientation
for the Population
support
• Profit in future
11.Group
involvement
1. Profit 3. Risk
orientation
6. Short-
term
constraints
orientation 5. Family
• Profit
12. Relevant succession &
existing skills and management
knowledge horizon
Orientation
13. Innovation
awareness
4. Enterprise
scale
• Enterprise 17. Time for profit
scale 7. Trialing ease
benefits to be
realised
Learning of
• Management
Trialability of 16. Profit in
Relative years used
Innovation
8. Innovation Advantage
complexity 18. Profit
Horizon Relative
Advantage
in Future
19. Environment
• Time for Profit Relative
20. Time for
environmental
benefits to be Advantage of
the Innovation
benefits to be
realised
realised9. Observability
Peak Adoption
Level
22. Ease &
convenience 21. Risk
Time to Peak
Adoption

18. ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
• Relative Relative Advantage
upfront cost of
10. Advisory
2. Environmental
orientation
for the Population
innovation
support
6. Short-
11.Group 3. Risk term
1. Profit
involvement constraints
• Reversibility of orientation orientation
Networks 5. Family
12. Relevant succession &
existing skills and management
innovation
knowledge horizon
13. Innovation 4. Enterprise
awareness scale
17. Time for profit
14. Relative 15.
benefits to be
upfront cost Reversibility of
realised
7. Trialing ease of innovation innovation
Learning of 16. Profit in
Trialability of
Relative years used
Innovation Investment cost
8. Innovation Advantage
complexity 18. Profit
Relative in Future
Advantage
19. Environment
20. Time for
Relative environmental
Advantage of benefits to be
the Innovation realised
Peak Adoption 22. Ease &
Level convenience 21. Risk
Time to Peak
Adoption

19. ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
Need:
• Consistency
Population-specific influences on the
ability to learn about the Innovation
Relative Advantage
for the Population
2. Environmental
10. Advisory orientation
support
• Direction of 6. Short-
11.Group term
involvement
Networks
relationship 1. Profit
orientation
3. Risk
orientation
5. Family
constraints
12. Relevant succession &
management
• Data
existing skills and
knowledge horizon
13. Innovation Farmers
awareness
skills requirements
networks & 4. Enterprise
scale
• Strong 14. Relative
upfront cost
15.
Reversibility of
17. Time for profit
benefits to be
realised
7. Trialing ease
influence
Learning of
of innovation innovation
Trialability of 16. Profit in
Relative years used
Innovation
• Age –
Advantage Investment cost
8. Innovation
complexity 18. Profit
Relative in Future
inconsistent Advantage
19. Environment
Learnability Characteristics
• Education –
20. Time for
of the Innovation Relative environmental
Advantage of benefits to be
9. Observability
too hard the Innovation
Peak Adoption 22. Ease &
realised
Level convenience 21. Risk
Time to Peak
Adoption

20. ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
Population-specific influences on the Relative Advantage
ability to learn about the Innovation 2. Environmental
for the Population
10. Advisory orientation
support
6. Short-
11.Group 3. Risk term
1. Profit
involvement orientation constraints
orientation 5. Family
Networks
12. Relevant succession &
existing skills and management
knowledge horizon
13. Innovation Farmers
networks & 4. Enterprise
awareness scale
skills
17. Time for profit
14. Relative 15.
benefits to be
upfront cost Reversibility of
realised
7. Trialing ease of innovation innovation
Learning of 16. Profit in
Trialability of
Relative years used
Innovation Investment cost
8. Innovation Advantage
complexity 18. Profit
Relative in Future
Advantage
19. Environment
Learnability Characteristics 20. Time for
of the Innovation Relative environmental
Advantage of benefits to be
the Innovation realised
9. Observability 22. Ease &
Peak Adoption
Level convenience 21. Risk
Time to Peak
Adoption

21. ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
Population-specific influences on the Relative Advantage
ability to learn about the Innovation 2. Environmental
for the Population
10. Advisory orientation
support
6. Short-
11.Group 3. Risk term
1. Profit
involvement orientation constraints
orientation 5. Family
Networks
12. Relevant succession &
existing skills and management
knowledge horizon
13. Innovation Farmers
networks & 4. Enterprise
awareness scale
skills
17. Time for profit
14. Relative 15.
benefits to be
upfront cost Reversibility of
realised
7. Trialing ease of innovation innovation
Learning of 16. Profit in
Trialability of
Relative years used
Innovation Investment cost
8. Innovation Advantage
complexity 18. Profit
Relative in Future
Advantage
19. Environment
Learnability Characteristics 20. Time for
of the Innovation Relative environmental
Advantage of benefits to be
the Innovation realised
9. Observability 22. Ease &
Peak Adoption
Level convenience 21. Risk
Time to Peak
Adoption

22. Example questions

23. Example entry page

24. Example entry page

25. Example entry page

26. Response choices

27. Question explanation page

28. Example equation

29. Identify relationships

30. Formula for Trialability of Innovation
= (varTrialable * weiTrialable +
varInnovationComplexity *
weiInnovationComplexity)/2

31. Networks Profit Advantage
=MIN((varGroupInvolv =(((varProfitBenefitNow*weiProfitBenefitNow)*(varEnterprise
ement*weiGroupInvolv Scale*weiEnterpriseScale)/5)+(1/8*(varProfitBenefitLater*wei
ement)+( ProfitBenefitLater)*(varEnterpriseScale*weiEnterpriseScale)*
varAdvisorySupport*w (1/(POWER((1+(varManagementHorizonDiscountFactor)),(v
eiAdvisorySupport),5) arTimetoProfitBenefitYears))))/4.761904762*8))/2
FNSK=(=varA+varBOne*(varR
ESK*weiRESK)+varBTwo*(var
Networks*weiNetworks)+varBT Envirronmental advantage
hree*(varRESK*weiRESK)*(var =(varEnvironmentalBenefits *
Networks*weiNetworks) Investment Costs weiEnvironmentalBenefits )
=(varUpfrontCosts * *(varEnvironmentalOrientation
weiUpfrontCosts + *weiEnvironmentalOrientation)
IAwareness=varA+varBOne varReversibility * *(1/(POWER((1+(varEnvironmentalCostsBenefit
*(varAwareness*weiAwaren weiReversibility)/2 sDiscount)),
ess)+varBTwo*(varObserva (varTimetoEnvironmentalBenefitsYears))))/4.761
bility*weiObservability)+var 904762
BThree*(varAwareness*wei Learning of Relative Advantage=(((((varProfitOrientation * weiProfitOrientation)
Awareness)*(varObservabili RA=((weiTrialabilityInnovation*v * (varProfitAdvantage * weiProfitAdvantage)))
ty*weiObservability) arTrialabilityInnovation)+(weiFar + ((varRiskOrientation * weiRiskOrientation)/5
mersNetworksSkills*varFarmers * (varRiskEffect * weiRiskEffect))
NetworksSkills)+(weiRelativeAd + (varEaseConvenience * weiEaseConvenience)
vantage*varRelativeAdvantage)) + (varEnvironmentalAdvantage * weiEnvironmentalAdvantage))
/3 - ((varInvestmentCosts*weiInvestmentCosts)*-1+5))/10
Trialability=(varTrialable * Time to Peak=(=MAX((-
weiTrialable + (varSlope*(IF((varRelativeAdvantage*weiRelativeAdvantage)<1,1,(varRelativ
varInnovationComplexity * eAdvantage*weiRelativeAdvantage))))+varIntercept)
weiInnovationComplexity)/2 +(IF(varUpfrontCosts=5,0,(IF(varUpfrontCosts=4,IF(varShortTermConstraint
Peak s>=4,0,(varShortTermConstraints*-
Adoption=varBaseRate+(varMax1+4)/2),((IF(varShortTermConstraints>=4,0,varShortTermConstraints*-
Rate-varBaseRate)/(1+EXP(- 1+4)))))*weiShortTermConstraints)
-(IF(varAwarenessScore<=2,0,varAwarenessScore-
((varRelativeAdvantage*weiRelati
veAdvantage)*2-5))) 2)*weiAwarenessScore)), 1)

32. 1. Introduction of narrow-leafed lupins
1981

33. 2. Crop/livestock farmers in the central wheat-belt
of Western Australia

34. Output

35. Output

36. Output rate & extent

37. Output extra data

38. Output relevant info

39. Output validation
Marsh et al. 2004
Wongan Hills
Wyalkatchem
Chapman Valley
Corrigin
Lake Grace

40. User feedback ~ 100 people ~ 35 projects
PREDICT
The rate of adoption calculated was often
really slow—depressing! ... It shows good
reasoning why it would be slow ...

41. User feedback ~ 100 people ~ 35 projects
PREDICT
The rate of adoption calculated was often
really slow—depressing! ... It shows good
reasoning why it would be slow ...
INFORM
The real value is that it makes you think
why we do something – the constraints and
leverages.

42. User feedback ~ 100 people ~ 35 projects
PREDICT
The rate of adoption calculated was often
really slow—depressing! ... It shows good
reasoning why it would be slow ...
INFORM
The real value is that it makes you think
why we do something – the constraints and
leverages.
ENGAGE
… responding to the questions made you
think, especially about the audience, the
social factors and the risk aspects.

43. Future developments

44. ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool.
Conceptual Framework
Population-specific Relative Advantage
influences on the for the Population
ability to learn about
the Innovation
Learnability
Relative Advantage
Characteristics of
of the Innovation
the Innovation

45. Thank You
Geoff Kuehne (CSIRO), Rick Llewellyn (CSIRO)
Perry Dolling (DAFWA), David Pannell (UWA)
Roger Wilkinson (VicDPI), Mike Ewing (CRC FFI)