Climate Change in Portugal: state of the art

Climate change in Portugal:
Port gal
State of the art

Joaquim Flores

Climate change and cities symposium
Suburban i hb h d d t ti f
S b b neighbourhood adaptation for a changing climate
h i li t
(SNACC)

27th April 2010 - UWE Conference and Exhibition Centre
Frenchay, Bristol

Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores

• Objective

– Overview of the Portuguese situation in relation
to C ate C a ge
Climate Change:

• Mitigation

• Adaptation


• Structure

– Portuguese portrait

– General policy

– Concrete actions


PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it


PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it

Large sea jurisdiction / two Atlantic archipelagos

Source: PNPOT, 2007


PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it

Source: PNPOT, 2007


PORTUGAL: a portrait

Source: Statistics Portugal, 2008


PORTUGAL: a portrait

High numbers of
sunlight hours per year

Source: Meteo Institute


PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it

Low GNP

Source: PNPOT, 2007


Population ageing

Source: Statistics Portugal, 2008


PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it

Population ageing

Source: PNPOT, 2007


PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it

High density in the
coast

Source: PNPOT, 2007


PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it

High density in the coast –
energy consumption

Source: PNPOT, 2007


PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it

Land use

Source: PNPOT, 2007


PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it

Main risks

Source: PNPOT, 2007


PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it

Spatial model

Source: PNPOT, 2007


PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it

Public expense with environment: waste e water
management


Diogo Homem, 1563


• Oporto-1945


• Lisbon-1966


• Emissions


Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) per Capita
kg CO2 equivalent

12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000 EU27
0 PT
1990 1991 1992
1993 1994 1995
1996 1997
1998 1999
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Source: European Communities, 2010


CO2 Emissions per Capita

10000
8000
6000
4000 CO2 per capita (kg/cap) - Portugal
2000
0
CO2 per capita (kg/cap) - EU27
Average



Greenhouse Gases:

- Emissions increased 37% - 1990-2003

- CO2 represents 80% of Greenhouse Gases in Portugal

- From those 50% are from fuel to electricity and cars

-B t
Between 1990-2003 CO2 f
1990 2003 from cars i
increase 95%

Source: PNPOT, 2007


• Madeira Island - 20-02-2010

• 42 death
• 120 hounded
• 200 lost home


• Portugal - 21-04-2010

• Severe weather conditions in localized
points

• Thousands of Euros of prejudice


• Drought - 2005

• Precipitation 40% above average of last
60 years
• 90% of the country affected for several months
• Water s ppl
supply
• Agriculture
• Biodiversity


• Drought - 2005

• Nasa satellite imagery


• Forest fires - 2005

300.000 ha
32-553 fires


• Forest fires - 2005


• Heat wave – 2003

• High temperatures
• Low air humidity
• 14 days
• Interior

• Fires (425.000ha)
• Water supply failure

Source: IGP (2003)



Source: Portugal - Ministry of Health (2004)



Source: SIAM (2004)


• Lisbon – EXPO98

• Environmental conscientiousness
turning point

• Environmental practice
• Environmental academic research
• Environmental policy


CIAM – Climate Change Impacts Adaptation and
Mitigation Research Group

http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/CCIAM/


• SIAM and SIAM II – Scenarios, Impacts,
and Ad
d Adaptation M
i Measures

• http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/


• SIAM

• Started in the summer of 1999, with funding
from the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation
(
(Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian, FCG). Since
ç , )
January of 2000 it was also support by
Portuguese Government

• Ended in October 2001 with the publication of
the final report in book form


• SIAM II

• Started in January 2002, focusing in case
studies.

• Ended in 2006 with the publication of the
final
fi l report i b k f
t in book form


• European funding project: CLIMAAT and
CLIMAAT II (Interreg)
• Cli
Climat i the A l i I l d
in h Atlantic Islands

• http://www.climaat.angra.uac.pt/


• SIAM
Significant increase in mean
temperatures until the end of
the XXI


• SIAM

• Significant increase in mean
temperatures until the end of the XXI

• Summer maximum temperature:

– Portugal mainland +3ºC in coast and +7ºC
in the interior
– Madeira +3ºC
– Azores +2ºC


• SIAM

• Global
warming


• SIAM

• Si ifi
Significant increase i mean
ti in
temperatures until the end of the XXI

• In General:
– Increase in the intensity and frequency of
heat waves
– Increase in the number of hot days (temp.
above 35ºC)
– Increase in the number of Tropical nights
(temp.
(temp above 20ºC)
20 C)
– Decrease in the number of cold days (temp.
under 0ºC)


• SIAM

• Red ction in
Reduction
rain


• SIAM

• Reduction f th
R d ti of the rainy season, mainly i S i
i i l in Spring
and Autumn (different scenarios forecast a reduction
in annual rainfall in the continent by 20-40% of current
levels)
).

• A significant reduction (
g (about 30%) in annual
)
precipitation is also projected for Madeira during
this period.

• In the Azores, changes are predicted in the
annual rainfall cycle but without substantial
impact on total precipitation.


• SIAM
• The main impacts include:

• Probable changes in flood and drought
regimes, as well as changes in the quality and
g , g q y
availability of water;

• Significant increase in the risk of fire hazards;
Si ifi ti i th i k f fi h d

• Considerable increase in air pollution levels
and ecological disturbances, which may lead
to significant changes in the dynamics of
infectious disease transmission as well as
regional variations in agricultural productivity;


• SIAM
• The main impacts include:

• Increase of the erosion processes and
consequently of the flooded areas;
q y ;

• Reduction in the yield of irrigated crops.


• SIAM


• Portuguese funding project: PORTCOAST
(2004-2007)

• Present and future Portuguese coastal
climate and its impacts on the biological
li t d it i t th bi l i l
communities

• http://www.io.fc.ul.pt/zoologia/projectos/portcoast/


• Coastal erosion

• 67% of the Portuguese coast is in
erosion risk and lost of land in the
next decades due to climate change.

Source: Portcoast, 2008


• Coastal erosion

• Cascais
• Red ction in more than 50 % of
Reduction
beach coast until the end of XXI.

• In the most pessimit cenarios, some
beaches can reduce their sand in
80%.

Source: SPACCC, 2010


• CLIMATE CHANGE & TOURISM IN PORTUGAL:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS & ADAPTATION MEASURES
(
(CLITOP) - 2007
)

• http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/clitop/


• Conclusions

• Scenarios
– Increase in temperature
– Reduction of rainfall

• Impacts
– Droughts
– Water
– Fire risk
– Coastal erosion

Source: SIAM, SIAMII, CLIMAAT, PORTCOAST


• National Commission for Climate
Change (1998)
• Comissão
C i ã para as Alt
Alterações Cli áti
õ Climáticas

• I t
Intersectorial Commission i
t i lC i i in
Government

• Elaboration of Climate Change
National Plans and Policies


• National Program for Climate Change
(2004 and 2006)
• Programa Nacional para as Alt
P N i l Alterações
õ
Climáticas

• http://www.apambiente.pt/politicasambiente/Alter
acoesClimaticas/PNAC/Paginas/default.aspx


(2006)
õ
Climáticas

• Monitoring PNAC (execution indicators)
http://www.cumprirquioto.pt/Home.action

• Quioto Target: less than 27% CFC emissions in
relation to 1990 (2008-2012)
( )

• 2010 – 5% from target (17,62 Mt CO2e)


National Program for Climate Change (2006)
Programa Nacional para as Alterações Climáticas
g


(2006)
õ
Climáticas

• Energy
• Transportation
• Emissions
• Agriculture
• Florest
• Waste


• Portuguese Carbon Fund (2006)
• Fundo Português de Carbono

• Greenhouse gases emissions (Emission
Trading System)
• Managing the emissions trade in Portugal

• European Emission Trading System (EU
ETS


• CO2 Emissions National Plan (2008)
• Plano Nacional de Atribuição de Licenças de
Emissão de CO2

• http://www.apambiente.pt/Instrumentos/CELE/PN
p p p
ALE/PNALE_II/Paginas/default.aspx

• Licensing of major emissions producers
Li i f j i i d


• Climate Change Adaptation National
Strategy (2010)
• Estratégia N i
E t té i Nacional d Ad t ã à Alt
l de Adaptação às Alterações
õ
Climáticas (ENAAC)

• Approved in April 2010

• Scenarios and climat projections for the
pe od 080 00, o a a d o uga
period 2080-2100, for mainland Portugal
and Islands, Madeira and Azores


• Climate Change Adaptation National
Strategy

• The strategy of the strategy:
4 objectives:

– I f
Information and K
ti d Knowledge (
l d (necessity t
it to
develop solid cientific and thecnical base)

– Reduce the vulnerability and increase the
answer capacity

– Involvement of all sectors

– International cooperation


2008-2009
Strategic Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in
Sintra Municipality

Started in 2008 and ending in 2009 The objective of this
project is to study climate change impacts and adaptation
measures on specific sectors, namely, water resources,
coastal zones, human health, energy, tourism, forests and
biodiversity in the Sintra area.

From the CIAM Research Group
p

http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/siam-sintra/home.php


2009-2010
Strategic Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in
Cascais Municipality

The objective of this project is to study climate change
impacts and adaptation measures on specific sectors,
namely, water resources, coastal zones, human health,
energy, tourism, forests, biodiversity and agriculture in the
Cascais Municipality.

The impact assessment will allow to strategically plan
adaptation as a response to climate change in Cascais.

From the CCIAM Research Group

http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/PECAC/


2008 – Energy Efficiency National Plan
(PNAEE 2015)


Import Dependency
2007 ( in % )

All fuels Solid fuels Oil Gas

EU27 53,1 41,2 82,6 60,3

PT 82,0 100 98,9 98,7

Source: European Commission 2010


2008 – Energy Efficiency National Plan
(PNAEE 2015)

Programs and measures to achieve energy efficiency in
several sectors in relation to final energy consumption

- Transport

- Residential ans services

- Industry
y

- State

- Behaviour

- taxes

- Funding


• National Electricity Mobility Plan (2008)

• 21 Municipalities


• Target: 1.350 charging points in em 2011

• The national pilot network will be
compatible with all electric vehicules

• Slow charging points (six to eight hours
from wind energy produced at night)

• F t charging points (20 t 30 minutes i
Fast h i i t to i t in
the day)


• Charging points:

• private garages
• public access points located at public car
parks
• car parks at shopping centers
• hotels, airports, gas stations and other
places in those municipalities which have
adhered to the pilot scheme.
scheme


• A pre-paid card charg.e of the mobi.e
network shall provide access to the supply
points,
points discounting the charging value

• This amount includes the electricity
consumed and payment for the charging
se ce
service.


• Electric Mobility Local Plan (Municipalities)

• Porto

• 168 slow charching points in the city

• Incentive measures to promote electric
mobility in the city


• National Incentive to dismantle old
vehicles

• Will be reserved to electric vehicles and high
environmental performance vehicles with CO2
emissions lower than 100 g/km


Lisbon – Expo98

Trigeneration system – Power-Heating-Cooling

15Km of network

130 buildings connected (housing, hotels, offices,
pavillions, major services)

MESAP – Modular Energy System Analysis and Planning
(University of Stuttgart)


Lisbon – Expo98

Source: Climaespaço 2006


Lisbon – Expo98

Source: Climaespaço 2007


Oporto – 2010

Thermal Energy Urban Network
RUTE Project (Rede Urbana de Energia Térmica)

Oporto Historical Centre (Downtown)

Thermal system – Heating-Cooling

Anchor Buildings/services


Oporto – 2010

Thermal Energy Urban Network
RUTE Project (Rede Urbana de Energia Térmica)


Oporto – 2006
RE-START
RE START Project (European Funding)
Pilot Project

XIX Building
Natural lighting
Natural ventilation

Support systems


• Smart grids - the future of electric energy
distribution
di t ib ti

• C
Communication i th di t ib iti system
i ti in the distribuition t

• C
Consumption metering ( hi h 1 )
i i (which 15m)

• Energy lost control


• InovCity

• Energy Box
• Homes
• Industry and services
• Public lighting


• Smart grid Pilot Project

• Public/Private partnership

• Instalation of 31 000 energy boxes
31.000

• Comunication with 300 electricity network points in
the city

• Will allow «savings on energy consumption and
distribution in Portugal»


• Public lighting efficiency

• 4 measures:
• Introdution of LED technology – redution in 40% to
50% in electricity consumption

• Intensity regulation according to natural light
conditions

• Reducing light intensity in the dead hours (2:00-
5:00 am) keeping the security levels

• Dynamic management of lighting – adaptation to
traffic and human presence


Solar Central – Amareleja - Moura
2008 – Photovoltaic Solar Central

Sunny South of Portugal (temperature records in the
Summer)

- Capacity to produce 46,41 Megawatts allowing to prevent
the emission of 89.000 CO2 ton comparing to fossil
production

- 2.520 Sun followers with 104 solar panels which

- 250 hectares

- The Central will produce 93 Gigawatts/hour per y ,
p g p year,
enough to 30.000 households consumption

- Is the second in the world - Olmedilla de Alarcon (Spain),
with 60 Megawatts of production capacity and 85
Gigawatts/hour per yea


Aguçadoura wave farm – 2008

-Location 5km off the Atlantic coastline of northern Portugal

- Three P1-A Pelamis machines Capacity 2.25 MW (3 x
750kW)

-Status Proven installation of three units on fully
commissioned site i f
i i d i infrastructure and successful export of
d f l f
power into the local grid.

-The multiple P l i units making up th A
Th lti l Pelamis it ki the Aguçadoura
d
wave farm constitute both the world’s first, multi-unit, wave
farm and also the first commercial order for wave energy
converters.
converters

- 1st stage – 3 machines – capacity to produce 750
kilowatts (kw) each allowing to average production of 7
each,
Gigawatts/hour per year (Gwh).


Parque Eólico do Alto Minho I
Wind Energy Park – 2008
Major wind park in Europe

Windy North of Portugal

Capacity to produce 240 Megawatts and will prevent the
emission of 500.000 CO2 ton comparing to fossil
production
d i

Is now producing electricity for 300.000 households (1,5%
of Portuguese energy consumption)
fP t ti )

- 120 wind towers

-The Central will produce 530 Gigawatts/hour per year

- Portugal wind energy:
- From 500 megawatts in 2005 to 5.000 in 2010


EU27 - 2007
Renewables


EU27 - 2007 Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Renewables
3,14% of EU27


Share of electricity from renewable energy sources in total electricity
consumption (%) - EU27 (2009)
Share of electricity from renewable energy sources in total electricity consumption (%) - EU27
80 80

70 70

60 60

50 2010 OBJECTIVE 50
2007 Total Share
40 EU27 OBJECTIVE 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

NL
BE

LU
DK

DE

EE

ES

HU
CY

LV

SK

FI

SE

UK
EU

BG

CZ

IT

AT
EL

LT

MT

PT
PL

RO
FR
IE

SI
27



Sources of Energy
Renewables – 31,8%

Source: EDP, 2010


Thank You!

Joaquim Flores

Joaquim.flores@gmail.com

Climate Change in Portugal: state of the art

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