The document provides forecasts for UK GDP growth in 2017-2018 from The Saturday Economist. It forecasts growth of 1.5% in 2018 after 1.2% growth in the first quarter. Charts are presented showing historical and forecasted GDP growth for various sectors of the UK economy such as manufacturing, services, construction according to the ONS preliminary estimate for Q1 2018.

1. Modelling GDP(O)
The Saturday Economist . com
Modelling GDP(O)
Forecasts for the UK economy 2017 - 2018
April 2018
The Saturday Economist

2. 70.0
75.7
81.4
87.1
92.9
98.6
104.3
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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GDP(O)
Modelling GDP(O)Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Data Based on the ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP Q1 : 27th April 2018
Reference Year 2015 = 100
We forecast growth
of 1.5% in 2018
after growth of
1.2% in the first
quarter
April 2018

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GDP(O)
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Forecast
Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Reference Year 2015 = 100
Data Based on the ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP Q1 : 27th April 2018
April 2018

4. 80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Modelling GDP(O)
GDP(O) weight 7 / 1000
Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Reference Year 2015 = 100
Data Based on the ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP Q1 : 27th April 2018
April 2018

5. 60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Mining and Quarrying
Modelling GDP(O)
GDP(O) weight 12 / 1000
Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Reference Year 2015 = 100
Data Based on the ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP Q1 : 27th April 2018
April 2018

6. 90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Manufacturing
Modelling GDP(O)
GDP(O) weight 101 / 1000
Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Reference Year 2015 = 100
Data Based on the ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP Q1 : 27th April 2018
April 2018

7. 90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Electricity, Gas, Steam GDP(O) weight 17 / 1000
Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Reference Year 2015 = 100
Data Based on the ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP Q1 : 27th April 2018
April 2018

8. 70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Water, Sewage
Modelling GDP(O)
GDP(O) weight 10 / 1000
Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Reference Year 2015 = 100
Data Based on the ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP Q1 : 27th April 2018
April 2018

9. 90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Total Production
Modelling GDP(O)
GDP(O) 140 / 1000
Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Reference Year 2015 = 100
Data Based on the ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP Q1 : 27th April 2018
April 2018

10. 80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Construction GDP(O) weight 61 / 1000
Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Reference Year 2015 = 100
Data Based on the ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP Q1 : 27th April 2018
April 2018

11. 80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Distribution, Hotels and Leisure GDP(O) weight 137 / 1000
Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Reference Year 2015 = 100
Data Based on the ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP Q1 : 27th April 2018
April 2018

12. 60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Transport, Storage and Communications
Modelling GDP(O)
GDP(O) weight 104 / 1000
Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Reference Year 2015 = 100
Data Based on the ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP Q1 : 27th April 2018
April 2018

13. 60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Business Services and Finance GDP(O) weight 329 / 1000
Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Reference Year 2015 = 100
Data Based on the ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP Q1 : 27th April 2018
April 2018

14. 80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Education, Health, Other Services GDP(O) weight 222 / 1000
Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Reference Year 2015 = 100
Data Based on the ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP Q1 : 27th April 2018
April 2018

15. 70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Total Services GDP(O) weight 793 / 1000
Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Reference Year 2015 = 100
April 2018

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Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Data Based on the ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP Q1 : 27th April 2018
April 2018

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Change Year on Year %
Modelling GDP(O)The Saturday Economist
Data Based on the ONS Preliminary Estimate of GDP Q1 : 27th April 2018
April 2018

18. Modelling GDP(O)
The Saturday Economist . com
Modelling GDP(O)
Forecasts for the UK economy 2015 - 2017
The Saturday Economist
April 2018