7. Business Size, Risk, and Reward
P(survival) = 1.0 - p(failure)
Low 0.3 0.5 0.7 High
LowMediumHigh
Risk
P(Survival) is inversely proportional to risk
Retail stores
Technology-based products
(high-growth objective)
Technology-based
consulting
(low growth
objective)
P(failure)
High 0.7 0.5 0.3 Low
Reward
LowHighLow
8. Markets versus Marketing
Gillette introduces The Sensor™ razor for men
• Retail price: $3.75 with three blades
• R&D costs: $200 million
• First-year advertising budget: $110 million
• Estimated annual retail sales: $390 million
Even if you could invent a superior razor blade, would you want to compete
in this game?
10. Dollar Shave Club
-CrunchBase
• Total Equity Funding: $163.5M in 5 Rounds from 19 Investors
• Most Recent Funding: $90.7M Series D on November 19, 2015
• Headquarters: Los Angeles, CA
• Description: home-delivers personal grooming products to its online subscribers every
month.
• Founders: Mark Levine, Michael Dubin
• Categories: E-Commerce, Retail
• Website: http://www.dollarshaveclub.com
11. History
Founded by Mark Levine and Michael Dubin in July 2011, DollarShaveClub.com Dollar Shave
Club is a monthly membership service that delivers fresh, stainless steel razor blades and
other personal grooming products to customers by mail.
The Humble Twin: a standard two-blade razor ($1/month, plus s+h)
The 4x: a four-blade razor perfect for men’s or women’s hair removal needs ($6/month,
shipping included)
The Executive: a state-of-the-art six-blade razor ($9/month, shipping included)
In 2012, Dollar Shave Club launched the campaign video “Our Blades Are F***ing Great,” that
introduced the company.As the video went viral, orders reached 12,000 in the first two days.
In 2016, Unilever Buys Dollar Shave Club for $1 Billion.
12.
13. Pebble
Total Equity Funding: $15.38M in 2 Rounds from 7 Investors
Most Recent Funding: $20.34M Product Crowdfunding on February 24,
2015
Headquarters: Palo Alto, CA
Description: Pebble is a company that develops a technology designed
for smart watches to connect with iPhone and Android smartphones
using Bluetooth.
Founders: Eric Migicovsky
Categories: Hardware + Software,Wearables
Website: http://www.pebble.com
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/597507018/pebble-time-
awesome-smartwatch-no-compromises?
14. Market Positioning
II
marketing driven
(new use of
technology for an
existing product)
I
missionary sales,
technology push
III
face entrenched
competition
IV
market-driven,
technology-fueled,
market pull
existing product new product
new
market
existing
market
19. “What to sell?”
• Know-how only
• “Proof of concept”
• Components to OEM
• Final products to end-user
• End-to-end solution, service bureau
• Company
20. Lean Towards
Selling Know-How When:
• Technology lacks fit with corporate mission
• Lack of financial resources to exploit technology
• Tight window of opportunity and lack of speed
• Market smaller than expected/business unlikely to be
profitable
• When range of technologies in market is diverse
• When allowing firms access to technology is most
appropriate (next slide)
21. Appropriate conditions for
technology licensing
• Network externalities: more value as more customers
use a product
• Standardization of technology discourages substitute
technologies
• Firm lacks marketing skills for end-product
• Major customers want a second source
22. Lean Toward Selling End-
Product When:
• Firm’s components are incompatible with general
industry standards.
– What if firm competes at end-product with incompatible
product?
■Hard to get third-party developers
23. Sell at Multiple Points on the “What to
Sell” continuum when
• Offering technology to competitors may encourage
industry standardization
• Firm may have skills in some segments but not others
• Major buyers require second source
• To maximize rate of return on technology investment
24. ROI (Return on Investment)
• Is the market big enough?
> US $ 100M revenue expected?
• Can the company take more 25% market share?
• Can your revenue grow more than 50% per year?
• Most of VC’s expect 10 time return.
• Keyword: Growth
25. Why grow?
• Investors expect rapid growth
• Grow a commanding position in a defensible market segment
• “Rule of X” Competitors
• Achieve Critical Mass and Economy of Scale
• Diversify to diminish business risk
26. Idea,
MacroscopicView
• AI, Big Data & Blockchain
• Stay connected
• Be location aware
• Make it touch enabled
• Get social
• Break it down
• Be compatible
27. Look atYour Idea under Microscope
• How will you make you first dollar?
• Do you have domain expertise?
• Are you really passionate about this idea?
• How big is the market?
• How crowed is the market?
• How simple will it be to ship a first version of the product?
• Start a project, not a company