A monthly summary of global economic performance including employment, trade, business conditions, leading indicators and regional data.

1. . Laird Research - Economics
October 13, 2014
Where we are now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Indicators for US Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Global Financial Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
US Key Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
US In
ation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
QE Taper Tracker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
US Banking Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
US Employment Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
US Business Activity Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
US Consumption Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
US Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Global Business Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Canadian Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
European Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Chinese Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Global Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Where we are now
Welcome to the Laird Report. It’s job is to stick a the pin on the
global economy’s map that says ”You are here”. We present a com-pendium
of economic data from around the world to help figure this
out.
What is wrong with Europe? Germany is likely to be officially in a
recession after two negative quarters of real GDP growth (still waiting
for the final numbers) and its industrial output is dropping. Germany
was the strongest of the lot in Europe and made up for stagnation in
France and some pretty terrible ongoing results in countries like Italy
and Greece. If Germany goes down, then the need for some kind of
QE-type program goes up dramatically (the European Central Bank
has indicated they want to do this already).
That plus the tension from Russia isn’t helping matters any. Eu-rope
can’t seem to catch a break, though on the economy much of the
damage is self-inflicted thanks to austerity. The Germans like to be
the adults in the room with much clucking over their deficit crazed, tax
avoiding, unproductive brethren and they don’t want to waste the op-portunity
of a fiscal crisis to have everyone smarten up. Unfortunately,
it just makes everyone hate them and blame them for their lost decade.
The US remains very strong but there are some caveats on that
growth: (1) in a globalized world, if your neighbors house is in fire be
very nervous; (2) the US strength has caused the dollar to become very
strong relative to everyone else - this has had the effect of holding down
inflation but it also puts a big drag on exports.
China continues to be in the middle of a restructuring. They have
been slowing down for a while now and output is decreasing well below
the levels from previous years. The country is in the middle of a mas-sive
transition “from manufacturing to services on the supply side, and
from investment to consumption on the demand side, and as measures
to rein in the rapid accumulation of credit [come] into force.” (per a
quote from the World Bank’s June update on China).
The canary in the coalmine for China is Australia, who’s economy is

2. heavily skewed towards raw materials for Asian consumption. Australia
is a tough place to be for the past couple of years.
Across the board, there are fears about global growth. As regular
readers are aware, I have a tough time figuring out what GDP growth
(or declines) actually mean - they are huge aggregates of economic re-sults
and its tough to figure out the consequences.
The IMF puts out a semi-annual global economic outlook that is
nice reading and kindly supplies multiyear forward estimates on real
GDP growth. Their October “World_Economic_Update” report is out
- and the graph below compares the changes in estimates for 2014 and
2015. In short, things are getting worse around the planet.
These charts show the declines in estimates between their view of
the world in April 2014 and October 2014. It matches the rest of the
economic data we’ve seen - North America is doing slightly better, but
the rest of the world is doing worse. The report itself is good to read if
you have the time as it also has analysis on the impact of war etc that
is a good thought exercise.
Formatting Notes The grey bars on the various charts are OECD
recession indicators for the respective countries. In many cases, the last
available value is listed, along with the median value (measured from
as much of the data series as is available).
Subscription Info For a FREE subscription to this monthly re-port,
please visit sign up at our website: www.lairdresearch.com
Laird Research, October 13, 2014
Change in IMF's 2014 Real GDP Growth Estimates between Apr−Oct 2014
ESP GBR IND KOR CAN CHN IDN DEU JPN USA FRA RUS BRA
Change in Estimate (%)
0.5
0.0
−0.5
−1.0
−1.5
Change in IMF's 2015 Real GDP Growth Estimates between Apr−Oct 2014
ESP GBR IND KOR CAN CHN IDN DEU JPN USA FRA RUS BRA
Change in Estimate (%)
0.5
0.0
−0.5
−1.0
−1.5
Country codes are ISO 3-character names: ESP = Spain, GBR = United Kingdom, IND = India, KOR = Korea, Republic Of, CAN = Canada,
CHN = China, IDN = Indonesia, DEU = Germany, JPN = Japan, USA = United States, FRA = France, RUS = Russian Federation, BRA = Brazil
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 2

3. Indicators for US Economy
Leading indicators are indicators that usually change before the
economy as a whole changes. They are useful as short-term predictors
of the economy. Our list includes the Philly Fed’s Leading Index which
summarizes multiple indicators; initial jobless claims and hours worked
(both decrease quickly when demand for employee services drops and
vice versa); purchasing manager indicies; new order and housing per-mit
indicies; delivery timings (longer timings imply more demand in
the system) and consumer sentiment (how consumers are feeling about
their own financial situation and the economy in general).
Leading Index for the US
Index: Est. 6 month growth
−3 −1 1 2 3 4
Growth
Contraction
median: 1.39
Aug 2014: 1.51
Initial Unemployment Claims
1000's of Claims per Week
200 400 600
median: 351.75
Oct 2014: 287.75
Manufacturing Ave. Weekly Hours Worked
Hours
39 40 41 42 43 44
median: 40.60
Sep 2014: 42.10
ISM Manfacturing − PMI
Index: Steady State = 50
30 40 50 60 70
median: 53.20
Sep 2014: 56.60
expanding economy
contracting economy
Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods
Billions of Dollars
150 200 250 300
median: 182.69
Aug 2014: 244.76
ISM Manufacturing: Supplier Deliveries
Index
40 50 60 70
median: 51.60
Slower Deliveries Sep 2014: 52.20
Faster Deliveries
Capex (ex. Defense & Planes)
Percent change (3 months)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10 −5 0 5
median: 0.86
Aug 2014: 1.93
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Index Value
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−4 −2 0 2
median: 0.08
Aug 2014: −0.21
U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
Index 1966 Q1 = 100
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
50 70 90 110
median: 88.30
Sep 2014: 84.60
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 3

4. Global Financial Markets
Global Stock Market Returns
Country Index Name Close Date Current
Value
Weekly
Change
Monthly
Change
3 month
Change
Yearly
Change
Corr to
S&P500
Corr to
TSX
North America
USA S&P 500 Oct 10 1,906.1 -3.1% t -4.5% t -3.0% t 12.6% s 1.00 0.69
USA NASDAQ Composite Oct 10 4,276.2 -4.5% t -6.8% t -2.7% t 13.7% s 0.94 0.68
USA Wilshire 5000 Total Market Oct 10 19,975.7 -3.6% t -5.6% t -4.0% t 10.6% s 0.99 0.69
Canada S&P TSX Oct 10 14,227.4 -3.8% t -8.0% t -5.9% t 10.3% s 0.69 1.00
Europe and Russia
France CAC 40 Oct 10 4,073.7 -4.9% t -8.5% t -5.3% t -3.4% t 0.52 0.41
Germany DAX Oct 10 8,788.8 -4.6% t -9.4% t -9.0% t 1.2% s 0.49 0.43
United Kingdom FTSE Oct 10 6,340.0 -2.9% t -7.2% t -5.0% t -1.4% t 0.55 0.45
Russia Market Vectors Russia ETF Oct 10 21.3 -4.0% t -15.2% t -20.5% t -26.3% t 0.55 0.38
Asia
Taiwan TSEC weighted index Oct 09 8,966.4 -0.1% t -5.0% t -5.5% t 7.5% s 0.26 0.17
China Shanghai Composite Index Sep 05 2,326.4 4.9% s 4.8% s 13.4% s 9.6% s -0.05 0.14
Japan NIKKEI 225 Oct 10 15,300.5 -2.6% t -3.1% t 0.6% s 7.8% s 0.03 0.10
Hong Kong Hang Seng Oct 10 23,088.5 0.1% s -6.5% t -0.6% t 0.6% s -0.03 0.19
Korea Kospi Oct 10 1,940.9 -1.4% t -4.6% t -3.1% t -3.0% t -0.01 0.11
South Asia and Austrailia
India Bombay Stock Exchange Oct 10 26,297.4 0.1% s -2.8% t 3.6% s 29.7% s 0.12 0.21
Indonesia Jakarta Oct 10 4,963.0 0.3% s -3.5% t -2.6% t 10.6% s -0.15 -0.15
Malaysia FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Oct 10 1,808.9 -1.7% t -3.3% t -4.4% t 1.9% s -0.01 0.01
Australia All Ordinaries Oct 10 5,185.7 -2.4% t -7.0% t -4.9% t 0.8% s -0.10 0.14
New Zealand NZX 50 Index Gross Oct 10 5,225.1 -0.2% t -0.2% t 1.9% s 10.8% s -0.09 -0.04
South America
Brasil IBOVESPA Oct 10 55,312.0 1.4% s -5.0% t 1.3% s 4.4% s 0.32 0.33
Argentina MERVAL Buenos Aires Oct 10 10,040.2 -12.1% t -6.8% t 15.4% s 94.4% s 0.36 0.25
Mexico Bolsa index Oct 10 43,435.7 -2.8% t -5.4% t -0.1% t 7.3% s 0.56 0.50
MENA and Africa
Egypt Market Vectors Egypt ETF Oct 10 70.3 -2.3% t -3.7% t 3.1% s 38.3% s 0.11 0.24
(Gulf States) Market Vectors Gulf States ETF Oct 10 33.4 -0.7% t -1.9% t 3.4% s 33.0% s 0.16 0.03
South Africa iShares MSCI South Africa Index Oct 10 62.5 -2.5% t -10.1% t -9.1% t -1.7% t 0.67 0.51
(Africa) Market Vectors Africa ETF Oct 10 29.9 -2.8% t -8.5% t -9.2% t 0.7% s 0.66 0.64
Commodities
USD Spot Oil West Texas Int. Oct 06 $90.3 -4.4% t -2.5% t -13.3% t -12.4% t 0.21 0.29
USD Gold LME Spot Oct 10 $1,222.2 1.2% s -2.6% t -9.0% t -5.8% t 0.04 0.02
Note: Correlations are based on daily arithmetic returns for the most recent 100 trading days.
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 4

5. S&P 500 Composite Index
The S&P 500 Composite Index is widely regarded as the best single
gauge of the large cap U.S. equities market. A key figure is the valua-tion
level of the S&P500 as measured by the Price/Earnings ratio. We
present two versions: (1) a 12-month trailing earnings version which
reflects current earnings but is skewed by short term variances and (2)
a cyclically adjusted version which looks at the inflation adjusted earn-ings
over a 10 year period (i.e. at least one business cycle). Forecasted
earnings numbers are estimates provided by S&P.
S&P 500 Profit Margins and Overall Corporate Profit Margins (Trailing 12 months)
Percent
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Percent
Total Corporate Profits (% of GDP) − median: 6.2%, Q2/14: 10.6%
Net Profit Margin (S&P 500 Earnings / Revenue) − median: 6.6%, Q3/14: 9.3%
S&P Quarterly Earnings (USD$ Inflation Adjusted to current prices)
US Financial Crisis
Savings and Loans Crisis
Reported Earnings
Operating Earnings
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
−5.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
−5.00
Tech Bubble
Japanese Asset Bubble
Asian Financial Crisis House Bubble
Eurozone crisis
Oil Crisis I Oil Crisis II
Gulf War
High Inflation Period
Vietnam War Afganistan/Iraq War
Trailing P/E Ratios for S&P500
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
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99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
50
40
30
20
10
0
50
40
30
20
10
0
Multiple
Multiple
12−month P/E ( median = 17.4, Oct = 17.8)
10−year CAPE ( median = 19.4, Oct = 24.3)
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 5

6. S&P 500 Composite Distributions
This is a view of the price performance of the S&P 500 index com-panies.
The area of each box is proportional to the company’s market
cap, while the colour is determined by the percentage change in price
over the past month. In addition, companies are sorted according to
their industry group.
FB
−4.9%
AAPL
−2.5%
USB MS
Financials
ORCL
−8.5%
GOOG
−5.7%
MSFT
−2.4%
IBM
−2.9%
ICE
BK AMT
BLK
MU
YHOO
COF
ADBE
ADP
CSCO QCOM
INTC
−7.7%
V
HST
BBT AFL
TRV
BEN
EMC
PSA
DFS
HPQ
EBAY
MA
TXN
CRM
FIS
STX
BRK−A
−0.77%
WFC
−1.8%
JPM
BAC
1.6%
C
AXP
GS AIG
MET
SPG
PNC
ACE
STT
AON
CB
HCN
VTR
HIG
L
RF
XL
FOXA TWX
Consumer Discretionary
AMZN
−9.1%
GM
F
SBUX
HD
1.5%
ESRX BAX
LLY
JNJ
−2.1%
ABT
PFE
MRK
UA
MYL
VIAB
TGT
TJX
M
LB
VFC
JCI
BMY UNH BIIB
GILD
CELG
MDT
AGN
SYK AET
CI
A
ZTS
DIS
−5%
CMCSA
MCD NKE
PCLN
LOW
CCL
DG
AZO
RL
HAL
KMB
CL
WMT
3.4%
BHI
HES
WMB
Energy
RAI
MDLZ
PG
2.1%
KO
NBL
OXY
COP
LO
CVS
PM
−1.4%
PEP
3.1%
MO
9.5%
WAG
COST
ADM
EL
KR
K
Telecommunications
AA
IP
PPG
Services
Materials MON
Utilities
DOW
GD
PX
CSX
ITW
UTX BA
GE
−5.3%
NU
FE
NEE
HON
CAT
SO
MMM UPS
FDX
PCP
DAL
DE
WM IR
XOM
−7%
CVX
SLB
−14%
EOG
PSX
SE
VLO
DD
LYB
APD
CF
DUK
D
EIX ED
VZ
−1.7%
T
−1.7%
Information Technology
Health Care
Consumer Staples Industrials
<−25.0% −20.0% −15.0% −10.0% −5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% >25.0%
% Change in Price from Sep 2, 2014 to Oct 10, 2014
Average Median Median Median
Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E
Consumer Staples 2.0% s 1.9 5.2 20.3
Utilities 1.1% s 1.4 1.6 16.9
Health Care -1.1% t 3.1 4.0 23.3
Telecommunications Services -2.1% t 1.4 2.0 23.2
Financials -3.4% t 3.0 1.5 17.8
Average Median Median Median
Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E
Information Technology -5.7% t 3.2 3.7 20.6
Consumer Discretionary -5.8% t 1.5 4.0 19.7
Industrials -6.8% t 1.6 3.1 19.5
Materials -7.4% t 1.6 3.3 22.1
Energy -12.9% t 1.8 1.8 17.1
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 6

7. US Equity Valuations
A key valuation metric is Tobin’s q: the ratio between the market
value of the entire US stock market versus US net assets at replacement
cost (ie. what you pay versus what you get). Warren Buffet famously
follows stock market value as a percentage of GNP, which is highly
(93%) correlated to Tobin’s q.
We can also take the reverse approach: assume the market has
valuations correct, we can determine the required returns of future es-timated
earnings. These are quoted for both debt (using BAA rated
securities as a proxy) and equity premiums above the risk free rate (10
year US Treasuries). These figures are alternate approaches to under-standing
the current market sentiment - higher premiums indicate a
demand for greater returns for the same price and show the level of
risk-aversion in the market.
Tobin's q (Market Equity / Market Net Worth) and S&P500 Price/Sales
Tobin Q (median = 0.75, Jun = 1.12)
S&P 500 Price/Sales (median = 1.32, Sep = 1.72)
Paying up for growth
63
64
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00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
Buying assets at a discount
Equity and Debt Risk Premiums: Spread vs. Risk Free Rate (10−year US Treasury)
63
64
65
66
67
68
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71
72
73
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00
01
02
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12
13
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15
16
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Implied Equity Premium (median = 4.2%, Sep = 4.9%)
Debt (BAA) Premium (median = 2.0%, Sep = 2.3%)
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 7

8. US Mutual Fund Flows
Fund flows describe the net investments in equity and bond mutual
funds in the US market, as described in ICI’s “Trends in Mutual Fund
Investing” report. Note however that this is only part of the story as
it does not include ETF fund flows - part of the changes are investors
entering or leaving the market, and part is investors shifting to ETF’s
from mutual funds.
US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds
US$ billions (monthly)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
−40 −20 0 20 40
Domestic Equity
World Equity
Taxable Bonds
Municipal Bonds
US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds
US$ billions (Monthly)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
−60 −40 −20 0 20 40 60
Flows to Equity
Flows to Bonds
Net Market Flows
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 8

9. US Key Interest Rates
Interest rates are often leading indicators of stress in the financial
system. The yield curve show the time structure of interest rates on
government bonds - Usually the longer the time the loan is outstanding,
the higher the rate charged. However if a recession is expected, then
the fed cuts rates and this relationship is inverted - leading to negative
spreads where short term rates are higher than long term rates.
Almost every recession in the past century has been preceeded by an
inversion - though not every inversion preceeds a recession (just most
of the time).
For corporate bonds, the key issue is the spread between bond rates
(i.e. AAA vs BAA bonds) or between government loans (LIBOR vs
Fedfunds - the infamous “TED Spread”). Here a spike correlates to an
aversion to risk, which is an indication that something bad is happen-ing.
US Treasury Yield Curves
Forward Instantaneous Rates (%)
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Oct 9, 2014 (Today)
Sep 9, 2014 (1 mo ago)
Jul 9, 2014 (3 mo ago)
09 Oct 2013 (1 yr ago)
3 Month & 10 Yr Treasury Yields 96
10 Yr Treasury 7%
3 Mo Treasury
Spread
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
AAA vs. BAA Bond Spreads
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
Percent
AAA
BAA
median: 91.00
Oct 2014: 76.00
96
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99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
300
200
100
0
300
200
100
0
Spread (bps)
LIBOR vs. Fedfunds Rate
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Percent
3 mos t−bill
LIBOR
median: 37.00
Oct 2014: 22.16
96
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01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
300
200
100
0
300
200
100
0
Spread (bps)
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 9

10. US In
ation
Generally, the US Fed tries to anchor long run inflation expectations
to approximately 2%. Inflation can be measured with the Consumer
Price Index (CPI) or the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
index.
In both cases, it makes sense to exclude items that vary quickly like
Food and Energy to get a clearer picture of inflation (usually called
Core Inflation). The Fed seems to think PCI more accurately reflects
the entire basket of goods and services that households purchase.
Finally, we can make a reasonable estimate of future inflation ex-pectations
by comparing real return and normal bonds to construct an
imputed forward inflation expectation. The 5y5y chart shows expected
5 year inflation rates at a point 5 years in the future. Neat trick that.
Consumer Price Index
Percent
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87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
−1%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
−1%
US Inflation Rate YoY% (Aug = 1.7%)
US Inflation ex Food & Energy YoY% (Aug = 1.7%)
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Percent (Year over Year)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
PCE Inflation Rate YoY% (Aug = 1.5%)
PCE Core Inflation YoY% (Aug = 1.5%)
5−Year, 5−Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
Percent
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
5 year forward Inflation Expectation
Actual 5yr Inflation (CPI measure)
Actual 5yr Inflation (PCE Measure
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 10

11. QE Taper Tracker
The US has been using the program of Quantitative Easing to pro-vide
monetary stimulous to its economy. The Fed has engaged in a
series of programs (QE1, QE2 & QE3) designed to drive down long
term rates and improve liquidity though purchases of treasuries, mor-gage
backed securites and other debt from banks.
The higher demand for long maturity securities would drive up their
price, but as these securities have a fixed coupon, their yield would be
decreased (yield coupon / price) thus driving down long term rates.
In 2011-2012, “Operation Twist” attempted to reduce rates without
increasing liquidity. They went back to QE in 2013.
The Fed chairman suggested in June 2013 the economy was recover-ing
enough that they could start slowing down purchases (“tapering”).
The Fed backed off after a brief market panic. The Fed announced in
Dec 2013 that it was starting the taper, a decision partly driven by
seeing key targets of inflation around 2% and unemployment being less
than 6.5%. These charts track that progress.
QE Asset Purchases to Date (Treasury Mortgage Backed Securities)
Trillions
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Treasuries QE1 QE2 Operation Twist QE3 Taper
Mortgage Backed Securities
Total Monthly Asset Purchases (Treasury + Mortgage Backed Securities)
200
150
100
Billions
50
0
−50
−100
200
150
100
50
0
−50
−100
Month to date Oct 08: $−4.0
Inflation and Unemployment − Relative to Targets
Percent
10
8
6
4
2
0
10
8
6
4
2
0
Target Unemployment 6.5%
Target Inflation 2%
U.S. 10 Year and 3 Month Treasury Constant Maturity Yields
Percent
5
4
3
2
1
0
5
4
3
2
1
0
Short Term Rates:
Once at zero, Fed moved to QE
Long Term Rates:
Moving up in anticipation of Taper?
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 11

12. Exchange Rates
10 Week Moving Average CAD Exchange Rates
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0.62 0.71 0.81 0.90 1.00 1.09
USA / CAD
0.55 0.61 0.66 0.72 0.77 0.82
Euro / CAD
59.16 74.71 90.26 105.81 121.36 136.91
Japan / CAD
0.38 0.44 0.49 0.55 0.61 0.67
U.K. / CAD
0.59 0.98 1.36 1.74 2.12 2.51
Brazil / CAD
CAD Appreciating
CAD Depreciating
1 Month Change in Rates versus Average
3.0%
1.5%
−1.5%
−3.0%
Euro
1.8%
UK
0.7%
Japan
2.2%
South Korea
1.4%
China
−3.2%
India
−2.7%
Brazil
7.7%
Mexico
−0.1%
USA
3.2%
Canada
0.4%
% Change over 3 months vs. Canada
BRA
−3.2%
ARG
0.9%
KRW
−0.7%
JPY
−1.2%
AUS
−2.3%
RUS
−11.6%
CHN
5.7%
IND
2.7%
USA
5.0%
EUR
−2.4%
MXN
1.5%
ZAR
1.3%
−10.0% −8.0% −6.0% −4.0% −2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
CAD appreciating CAD depreciating
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 12

13. US Banking Indicators
The banking and finance industry is a key indicator of the health
of the US economy. It provides crucial liquidity to the economy in the
form of credit, and the breakdown of that system is one of the exac-erbating
factors of the 2008 recession. Key figures to track are the
Net Interest Margins which determine profitability (ie. the difference
between what a bank pays to depositors versus what the bank is paid
by creditors), along with levels of non-performing loans (i.e. loan loss
reserves and actual deliquency rates).
US Banks Net Interest Margin
Percent
3.5 4.0 4.5
median: 3.95
2014 Q2: 3.10
Repos Outstanding with Fed. Reserve
Billions of Dollars
50 150 250
median: 53.14
Oct 2014: 277.87
Bank ROE − Assets between $300M−$1B
Percent
0 5 10 15
median: 12.84
2014 Q2: 9.42
Consumer Credit Outstanding
% Yearly Change
−5 0 5 10 15 20
median: 7.70
Aug 2014: 6.81
Total Business Loans
% Yearly Change
−20 0 10 20
median: 8.50
Sep 2014: 12.26
US Nonperforming Loans
Percent
1 2 3 4 5
median: 2.34
2014 Q2: 2.26
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 2 4 6
median: −0.002
Oct 2014: −1.09
Commercial Paper Outstanding
Trillions of Dollars
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2
median: 1.36
Oct 2014: 1.08
Residential Morgage Delinquency Rate
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
2 4 6 8 10
median: 2.30
2014 Q2: 7.39
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 13

14. US Employment Indicators
Unemployment rates are considered the “single best indicator of
current labour conditions” by the Fed. The pace of payroll growth is
highly correlated with a number of economic indicators.Payroll changes
are another way to track the change in unemployment rate.
Unemployment only captures the percentage of people who are in
the labour market who don’t currently have a job - another measure
is what percentage of the whole population wants a job (employed or
not) - this is the Participation Rate.
The Beveridge Curve measures labour market efficiency by looking
at the relationship between job openings and the unemployment rate.
The curve slopes downward reflecting that higher rates of unemploy-ment
occur coincidentally with lower levels of job vacancies.
Unemployment Rate
Percent
median: 6.20
11
10
9
8
7
6
4 Sep 2014: 5.90
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
5
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Percent
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Beveridge Curve (Unemployment vs. Job Openings)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Job Openings (% total Employment)
Dec 2000 − Dec 2008
Jan 2009 − Jul 2014
Aug 2014
Participation Rate
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
63 64 65 66 67
median: 66.10
Sep 2014: 62.70
Total Nonfarm Payroll Change
Monthly Change (000s)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−500 0 500
median: 162.00
Sep 2014: 248.00
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 14

15. There are a number of other ways to measure the health of employ-ment.
The U6 Rate includes people who are part time that want a
full-time job - they are employed but under-utilitized. Temporary help
demand is another indicator of labour market tightness or slack.
The large chart shows changes in private industry employment lev-els
over the past year, versus how well those job segments typically pay.
Lots of hiring in low paying jobs at the expense of higher paying jobs
is generally bad, though perhaps not unsurprising in a recovery.
Median Duration of Unemployment
Weeks
5 10 15 20 25
median: 8.60
Sep 2014: 13.30
(U6) Unemployed + PT + Marginally Attached
Percent
8 10 12 14 16
median: 9.70
Sep 2014: 11.80
4−week moving average of Initial Claims
Jan 1995 = 100
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
50 100 150 200
median: 108.15
Oct 2014: 88.47
Financial Activities
Unemployed over 27 weeks
Millions of Persons
35
30
25
20
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
median: 0.78
Sep 2014: 2.91
Services: Temp Help
Millions of Persons
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
median: 2.24
Sep 2014: 2.93
0 200 400 600
15
Annual Change in Employment Levels (000s of Workers)
Average wages ($/hour)
Private Industry Employment Change (1 year)
Construction
Durable Goods
Education
Health Services
Information
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Mining and Logging
Nondurable Goods
Other Services
Professional
Business Services
Retail Trade
Transportation
Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Circle size relative to total employees in industry
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 15

16. US Business Activity Indicators
Business activity is split between manufacturing activity and non-manufacturing
activity. We are focusing on forward looking business
indicators like new order and inventory levels to give a sense of the
current business environment.
Manufacturing Sector: Real Output
YoY Percent Change
−10 0 10 20
median: 6.07
2014 Q2: 10.45
ISM Manufacturing − PMI
Index
30 40 50 60 70
Sep 2014: 56.60
manufac. expanding
manufac. contracting
ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index
Index
30 40 50 60 70 80
Sep 2014: 60.00
Increase in new orders
Decrease in new orders
Non−Manufac. New Orders: Capital Goods
Billions of Dollars
40 50 60 70
median: 57.26
Aug 2014: 73.10
Average Weekly Hours: Manufacturing
Hours
39 40 41 42 43
median: 41.10
Sep 2014: 42.10
Industrial Production: Manufacturing
YoY Percent Change
−15 −5 0 5 10
median: 3.31
Aug 2014: 4.02
Total Business: Inventories to Sales Ratio
Ratio
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
median: 1.37
Jul 2014: 1.29
Chicago Fed: Sales, Orders Inventory
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−0.5 0.0 0.5
Above ave growth Aug 2014: 0.08
Below ave growth
ISM Non−Manufacturing Bus. Activity Index
Index
Growth
Contraction
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
35 45 55 65
Sep 2014: 62.90
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 16

17. US Consumption Indicators
Variations in consumer activity are a leading indicator of the
strength of the economy. We track consumer sentiment (their expec-tations
about the future), consumer loan activity (indicator of new
purchase activity), and new orders and sales of consumer goods.
U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
Index 1966 Q1 = 100
50 60 70 80 90 110
median: 88.30
Sep 2014: 84.60
Consumer Loans (All banks)
YoY % Change
−10 0 10 20 30 40
median: 7.83
Sep 2014: 3.89
Accounting
Change
Deliquency Rate on Consumer Loans
Percent
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
median: 3.48
2014 Q2: 2.26
New Orders: Durable Consumer Goods
YoY % Change
−20 0 20
median: 4.60
Aug 2014: 2.15
New Orders: Non−durable Consumer Goods
YoY % Change
−20 0 10 20
median: 4.33
Aug 2014: −0.51
Personal Consumption Housing Index
Index
−0.4 0.0 0.2 0.4
median: 0.02
above ave growth Aug 2014: −0.12
below ave growth
Light Cars and Trucks Sales
Millions of Units
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
10 12 14 16 18 20 22
median: 14.76
Sep 2014: 16.34
Personal Saving Rate
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
2 4 6 8 10
median: 5.60
Aug 2014: 5.40
Real Retail and Food Services Sales
YoY % Change
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10 −5 0 5
median: 2.54
Aug 2014: 3.23
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 17

18. US Housing
Housing construction is only about 5-8% of the US economy, how-ever
a house is typically the largest asset owned by a household. Since
personal consumption is about 70% of the US economy and house val-ues
directly impact household wealth, housing is an important indicator
in the health of the overall economy. In particular, housing investment
was an important driver of the economy getting out of the last few
recessions (though not this one so far). Here we track housing prices
and especially indicators which show the current state of the housing
market.
15 20 25 30 35
150 200 250 300
Personal Income vs. Housing Prices (Inflation adjusted values)
New Home Price (000's)
Disposable Income Per Capita (000's)
Aug 2014
r2 : 89.2%
Range: Jan 1959 − Aug 2014
Blue dots +5% change in next year
Red dots −5% change in next year
New Housing Units Permits Authorized
Millions of Units
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
median: 1.36
Aug 2014: 1.00
New Home Median Sale Price
Sale Price $000's
100 150 200 250
Aug 2014: 275.60
Homeowner's Equity Level
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
40 50 60 70 80
median: 66.52
2014 Q2: 53.63
New Homes: Median Months on the Market
Months
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
4 6 8 10 12 14
median: 5.00
Aug 2014: 3.30
US Monthly Supply of Homes
Months Supply
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
4 6 8 10 12
median: 5.90
Aug 2014: 4.80
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 18

19. US Housing - FHFA Quarterly Index
The Federal Housing Finance Agency provides a quarterly survey
on house prices, based on sales prices and appraisal data. This gener-ates
a housing index for 355 municipal areas in the US from 1979 to
present. We have provided an alternative view of this data looking at
the change in prices from the peak in the 2007 time frame.
The goal is to provide a sense of where the housing markets are
weak versus strong.The colours represent gain or losses since the start
of the housing crisis (defined as the maximum price between 2007-2009
for each city). The circled dots are the cities in the survey, while the
background colours are interpolated from these points using a loess
smoother.
Change from 2007 Peak − Q2 2014
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
−10%
−20%
−30%
−40%
−50%
Today's Home Prices
Percentage Change from 2007−2009 Peak
Frequency
−75% −50% −25% 0% 25% 50% 75%
Year over Year Change − Q2 2014
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
−2%
−4%
−6%
−8%
−10%
YoY Change in this quarter
YoY Percent Change
Frequency
−15% −10% −5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 19

20. Global Business Indicators
Global PMI Reports
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an indicator reflecting
purchasing managers’ acquisition of goods and services. An index read-ing
of 50.0 means that business conditions are unchanged, a number
over 50.0 indicates an improvement while anything below 50.0 suggests
a decline. The further away from 50.0 the index is, the stronger the
change over the month. The chart at the bottom shows a moving av-erage
of a number of PMI’s, along with standard deviation bands to
show a global average.
Global PMI − September 2014
Eurozone
50.3
MEX 53.3
52.6
Global PMI
52.2
TWN
40.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 60.0
Contracting Steady Expanding
KOR
48.8
JPN
51.7
VNM
51.7
IDN
50.7
ZAF
50.7
AUS
46.5
BRA
49.3
CAN
53.5
CHN
50.2
IND
51.0
RUS
50.4
SAU
61.8
USA
57.5
Global PMI Monthly Change
Eurozone
−0.4
MEX −2.8
0.5
Global PMI
−0.4
TWN
−5.0 −4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Deteriorating PMI Change Improving
KOR
−1.5
JPN
−0.8
VNM
1.4
IDN
1.2
ZAF
1.7
AUS
−0.8
BRA
−0.9
CAN
−1.3
CHN
0.0
IND
−1.4
RUS
−0.6
SAU
1.1
USA
−0.4
Purchase Managers Index (Manufacturing) − China, Japan, USA, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Australia
Business Conditions Expanding
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
30 40 50 60 70
30 40 50 60 70
Business Conditions Contracting
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 20

21. Global PMI Chart
This is an alternate view of the global PMI reports. Here, we look
at all the various PMI data series in a single chart and watch their
evolution over time.
Red numbers indicate contraction (as estimated by PMI) while
green numbers indicate expansion.
Global PMI 48.7 48.9 49.6 50.0 51.5 50.9 51.2 50.4 50.6 50.6 50.8 51.6 51.8 52.1 53.1 53.3 53.0 53.2 52.4 51.9 52.2 52.6 52.4 52.6 52.2
Sep 12
Oct 12
Nov 12
Dec 12
Jan 13
Feb 13
Mar 13
Apr 13
May 13
Jun 13
Jul 13
Aug 13
Sep 13
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
United States
Canada
Mexico
Brazil
Eurozone
Netherlands
Ireland
Poland
Spain
Czech Republic
Italy
France
Germany
Greece
United Kingdom
Russia
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Japan
Korea
China
Taiwan
Vietnam
Indonesia
India
Australia
51.1 51.0 52.8 56.1 55.8 54.3 54.6 52.1 52.3 52.0 53.7 53.1 52.8 51.8 54.7 55.0 53.7 57.1 55.5 55.4 56.4 57.3 55.8 57.9 57.5
52.4 51.4 50.4 50.4 50.5 51.7 49.3 50.1 53.2 52.4 52.0 52.1 54.2 55.6 55.3 53.5 51.7 52.9 53.3 52.9 52.2 53.5 54.3 54.8 53.5
54.4 55.5 55.6 57.1 55.0 53.4 52.2 51.7 51.7 51.3 49.7 50.8 50.0 50.2 51.9 52.6 54.0 52.0 51.7 51.8 51.9 51.8 51.5 52.1 52.6
49.8 50.2 52.2 51.1 53.2 52.5 51.8 50.8 50.4 50.4 48.5 49.4 49.9 50.2 49.7 50.5 50.8 50.4 50.6 49.3 48.8 48.7 49.1 50.2 49.3
46.1 45.4 46.8 46.1 47.9 47.9 46.8 46.7 48.3 48.8 50.3 51.4 51.1 51.3 51.6 52.7 54.0 53.2 53.0 53.4 52.2 51.8 51.8 50.7 50.3
50.7 48.9 48.2 49.6 50.2 49.0 48.0 48.2 48.7 48.8 50.8 53.5 55.8 54.4 56.8 57.0 54.8 55.2 53.7 53.4 53.6 52.3 53.5 51.7 52.2
51.8 52.1 52.4 51.4 50.3 51.5 48.6 48.0 49.7 50.3 51.0 52.0 52.7 54.9 52.4 53.5 52.8 52.9 55.5 56.1 55.0 55.3 55.4 57.3 55.7
47.0 47.3 48.2 48.5 48.6 48.9 48.0 46.9 48.0 49.3 51.1 52.6 53.1 53.4 54.4 53.2 55.4 55.9 54.0 52.0 50.8 50.3 49.4 49.0 49.5
44.5 43.5 45.3 44.6 46.1 46.8 44.2 44.7 48.1 50.0 49.8 51.1 50.7 50.9 48.6 50.8 52.2 52.5 52.8 52.7 52.9 54.6 53.9 52.8 52.6
48.0 47.2 48.2 46.0 48.3 49.9 49.1 49.5 50.1 51.0 52.0 53.9 53.4 54.5 55.4 54.7 55.9 56.5 55.5 56.5 57.3 54.7 56.5 54.3 55.6
45.7 45.5 45.1 46.7 47.8 45.8 44.5 45.5 47.3 49.1 50.4 51.3 50.8 50.7 51.4 53.3 53.1 52.3 52.4 54.0 53.2 52.6 51.9 49.8 50.7
42.7 43.7 44.5 44.6 42.9 43.9 44.0 44.4 46.4 48.4 49.7 49.7 49.8 49.1 48.4 47.0 49.3 49.7 52.1 51.2 49.6 48.2 47.8 46.9 48.8
47.4 46.0 46.8 46.0 49.8 50.3 49.0 48.1 49.4 48.6 50.7 51.8 51.1 51.7 52.7 54.3 56.5 54.8 53.7 54.1 52.3 52.0 52.4 51.4 49.9
42.2 41.0 41.8 41.4 41.7 43.0 42.1 45.0 45.3 45.4 47.0 48.7 47.5 47.3 49.2 49.6 51.2 51.3 49.7 51.1 51.0 49.4 48.7 50.1 48.4
48.1 47.3 49.2 51.2 50.5 47.9 48.6 50.2 51.3 52.9 54.8 57.2 56.3 56.5 58.4 57.3 56.7 56.2 55.3 57.3 57.0 57.5 55.4 52.5 51.6
52.4 52.9 52.3 50.0 52.0 52.0 50.8 50.6 50.4 51.7 49.2 49.4 49.4 51.8 49.4 48.8 48.0 48.5 48.3 48.5 48.9 49.1 51.0 51.0 50.4
52.2 52.5 51.6 53.1 54.0 53.5 52.3 51.3 51.1 51.2 49.8 50.9 54.0 53.3 55.0 53.5 52.7 53.4 51.7 51.1 50.1 48.8 48.5 50.3 50.4
59.8 57.0 58.9 58.1 58.5 58.9 58.0 57.3 56.6 56.6 57.5 58.7 56.7 57.1 58.7 59.7 58.6 57.0 58.5 57.0 59.2 60.1 60.7 61.8
47.1 49.5 47.4 49.1 53.6 49.3 50.5 50.4 51.6 52.2 56.5 49.1 51.5 51.6 50.5 50.3 51.5 50.3 47.4 44.3 46.6 45.9 49.0 50.7
48.0 46.9 46.5 45.0 47.7 48.5 50.4 51.1 51.5 52.3 50.7 52.2 52.5 54.2 55.1 55.2 56.6 55.5 53.9 49.4 49.9 51.5 50.5 52.5 51.7
45.7 47.4 48.2 50.1 49.9 50.9 52.0 52.6 51.1 49.4 47.2 47.5 49.7 50.2 50.4 50.8 50.9 49.8 50.4 50.2 49.5 48.4 49.3 50.3 48.8
49.8 50.2 50.6 51.5 50.4 50.4 51.6 50.4 49.2 48.2 47.7 50.1 50.2 50.9 50.8 50.5 49.5 48.5 48.0 48.1 49.4 50.7 51.7 50.2 50.2
45.6 47.8 47.4 50.6 51.5 50.2 51.2 50.7 47.1 49.5 48.6 50.0 52.0 53.0 53.4 55.2 55.5 54.7 52.7 52.3 52.4 54.0 55.8 56.1 53.3
49.2 48.7 50.5 49.3 50.1 48.3 50.8 51.0 48.8 46.4 48.5 49.4 51.5 51.5 50.3 51.8 52.1 51.0 51.3 53.1 52.5 52.3 51.7 50.3 51.7
50.5 51.9 51.5 50.7 49.7 50.5 51.3 51.7 51.6 51.0 50.7 48.5 50.2 50.9 50.3 50.9 51.0 50.5 50.1 51.1 52.4 52.7 52.7 49.5 50.7
52.8 52.9 53.7 54.7 53.2 54.2 52.0 51.0 50.1 50.3 50.1 48.5 49.6 49.6 51.3 50.7 51.4 52.5 51.3 51.3 51.4 51.5 53.0 52.4 51.0
44.1 45.2 44.3 44.3 40.2 45.6 44.4 36.7 43.8 49.6 42.0 46.4 51.7 53.2 47.7 47.6 46.7 48.6 47.9 44.8 49.2 48.9 50.7 47.3 46.5
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22. OECD International Trade Data
The OECD calculates import and export values for member coun-tries.
Figures are seasonally adjusted and measured in billions of US
dollars. Red lines indicate exports, while blue lines indicate imports.
Green lines indicate the zero level.
The top part of the graph shows the changes in exports and imports
on a year-over-year basis, while the bottom part shows the difference
between exports and imports for that given month (i.e. the trade bal-ance)
China
YoY Change
40
20
0
−20
−40
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
40
30
20
10
0
−10
US
YoY Change
40
20
0
−20
−40
−60
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0
−20
−40
−60
−80
Canada
YoY Change
10
5
0
−5
−10
−15
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 2 4 6
−2
Germany
YoY Change
20
0
−20
−40
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
30
25
20
15
10
0 5
Japan
YoY Change
20
10
0
−10
−20
−30
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
10
0 5
−5
−10
−15
South Korea
YoY Change
15
10
0 5
−5
−10
−15
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 2 4 6
−2
−4
India
YoY Change
15
10
5
0
−5
−10
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0
−5
−10
−15
Australia
YoY Change
0 2 4 6
−2
−4
−6
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 1 2 3 4
−1
−2
Eurozone
YoY Change
40
20
0
−20
−40
−60
−80
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
20
10
0
−10
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23. Canadian Indicators
Retail Trade (SA)
YoY Percent Change
−5 0 5 10
median: 4.78
Jul 2014: 5.05
Total Manufacturing Sales Growth
YoY Percent Growth
−20 0 10 20
median: 4.14
Jul 2014: 8.24
Manufacturing New Orders Growth
YoY Percent Growth
−30 −10 0 10 20 30
median: 4.64
Jul 2014: 8.94
10yr Government Bond Yields
0 2 4 6 8 10
median: 5.79
Sep 2014: 2.20
Manufacturing PMI
50 51 52 53 54 55
Sep 2014: 53.50
Sales and New Orders (SA)
YoY Percent Change
−20 0 10 20
Sales
New Orders (smoothed)
Tbill Yield Spread 3mo vs 10 yr
Spread (10yr − 3mo)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−1 0 1 2 3 4
median: 1.36
Sep 2014: 1.28
Inflation (total and core)
YoY Percent Change
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−1 0 1 2 3 4
median: 1.95
Aug 2014: 2.11
Total
Core
Inventory to Sales Ratio (SA)
Ratio
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
median: 1.35
Jul 2014: 1.33
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24. 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9
Beveridge Curve (Mar 2011 − Jun 2014)
Unemployment Rate
Vacancy rate (Industrial)
Mar 2011 − Dec 2012
Jan 2013 − May 2014
Jun 2014
50 100 150
40 60 80 100 120
Property vs. Rent Prices
Rent Price Index
Calgary
Montreal
Vancouver
Toronto
Unemployment Rate (SA)
Percent
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Canada 6.8%
Alberta 4.4%
Ontario 7.1%
Debt Service Ratios (SA)
Percent
4 6 8 10
Total Debt: 6.9%
Mortgage: 3.6%
Consumer Debt: 6.6%
Housing Starts and Building Permits (smoothed)
YoY Percent Change
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−40 −20 0 20 40
Permits
Starts
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25. European Indicators
Unemployment Rates
Percentage
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Business Employment Expectations
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−40 −20 0 10
Industrial Orderbook Levels
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−60 −40 −20 0 20
Country Employment
Expect.
Unempl.
(%)
Bond Yields
(%)
Retail
Turnover
Manufacturing
Turnover
In
ation
(YoY %)
Industry
Orderbook
PMI
Series Dates Sep 2014 Aug 2014 Aug 2014 Aug 2014 Aug 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Sep 2014
France -12.9 t 10.5 u 1.41 t 105.8 s 108.7 t 0.5 t -22.5 t 48.8 s
Germany -1.5 s 4.9 u 0.95 t NA 110.8 t 0.8 u -10.9 t 49.9 t
United Kingdom 9.6 s 6.2 t 2.12 t 113.4 s NA 1.5 t -5.7 t 51.6 t
Italy -9.1 t 12.3 t 2.63 t NA NA -0.2 t -24.1 t 50.7 s
Greece -1.2 t 26.4 t 6.09 t NA NA -0.2 s -26.6 t 48.4 t
Spain -6.2 s 24.4 t 2.41 t NA NA -0.5 t -12.3 t 52.6 t
Eurozone (EU28) -3.0 u 10.1 t 2.00 t 104.6 t 109.0 s 0.7 s -15.5 t NA
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26. Government Bond Yields
Long Term Yields %
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 2 4 6 8 10
Economic Sentiment
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
60 70 80 90 110 130
Consumer Confidence
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−100 −60 −20 0 20
Inflation (Harmonized Prices)
median: 2.00
7 Euro Area
6
5
4
3
2
1
−1 Jul 2014: 0.40
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0
US
Harmonized Inflation: Jul 2014
AUT
1.7%
BGR
−1.0%
NOR
1.9%
DEU
0.8%
GBR
1.5%
ESP
−0.5%
FIN
1.2%
FRA
0.5%
HUN
0.3%
GRC
−0.2%
IRL
0.6%
ISL
2.3%
ITA
−0.2%
POL
−0.1%
ROU
1.3%
SWE
0.2%
−1.0%0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
YoY % Change in Prices
PMI: September 2014
40.042.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.060.0
Contracting Steady Expanding
BRA
49.3
CAN
53.5
DEU
49.9
ESP
52.6
FRA
48.8
GBR
51.6
GRC
48.4
IRL
55.7
ITA
50.7
MEX
52.6
POL
49.5
SAU
61.8
TUR
50.4
USA
57.5
RUS
50.4
PMI Change: Aug − Sep
−5.0−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Deteriorating PMI Change Improving
CAN
−1.3
DEU
−1.5
ESP
−0.2
FRA
1.9
GBR
−0.9
GRC
−1.7
IRL
−1.6
ITA
0.9
POL
0.5
TUR
0.1
USA
−0.4
RUS
−0.6
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27. Chinese Indicators
Tracking the Chinese economy is a tricky. As reported in the Fi-nancial
Times, Premier Li Keqiang confided to US officials in 2007 that
gross domestic product was “man made” and “for reference only”. In-stead,
he suggested that it was much more useful to focus on three alter-native
indicators: electricity consumption, rail cargo volumes and bank
lending (still tracking down that last one). We also include the PMI
- which is an official version put out by the Chinese government and
differs slightly from an HSBC version. Finally we include the Shanghai
Composite Index as a measure of stock performance.
Manufacturing PMI
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
40 45 50 55 60
Sep 2014: 50.20
Shanghai Composite Index
Index Value (Monthly High/Low)
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 1000 3000 5000
Sep 2014: 2363.87
Electricity Generated
100 Million KWH (log scale)
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1000 2000 3000 5000
Aug 2014: 4959.00
Electricity Generated
Long Term Trend
Short Term Average
Consumer Confidence Index
Index
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
98 100 102 104 106 108
median: 103.05
Aug 2014: 103.80
Exports
YoY Percent Change
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−20 0 20 40 60 80
median: 19.30
Aug 2014: 9.40
Retail Sales Growth
YoY Percent Change
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
10 15 20
median: 13.15
Aug 2014: 11.90
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28. Global Climate Change
Temperature and precipitation data are taken from the US National
Climatic Data Center and presented as the average monthly anomaly
from the previous 6 months. Anomalies are defined as the difference
from the average value over the period from 1961-1990 for precipitation
and 1971-2000 for temperature.
Average Temperature Anomalies from Mar 2014 - Aug 2014
−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
−4 −2 0 2 4
Cooler Anomalies in Celcius Warmer Anomalies in Celcius
Average 6 month Precipitation Anomalies from Mar 2014 - Aug 2014
−40.0 −30.0 −20.0 −10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
−40 −20 0 20 40
Drier Anomalies in millimeters Wetter Anomalies in millimeters
www.lairdresearch.com October 13, 2014 Page 28