A monthly summary of global economic performance including employment, trade, business conditions, leading indicators and regional data.

1. ....
Laird Research - Economics
Jul 17, 2014
Where we are now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Indicators for US Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Global Financial Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
US Key Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
US Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
QE Taper Tracker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
US Banking Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
US Employment Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
US Business Activity Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
US Consumption Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
US Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Global Business Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Canadian Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
European Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Chinese Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Global Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Where we are now
Welcome to the Laird Report. It’s job is to stick a the pin on the
global economy’s map that says ”You are here”. We present a com-
pendium of economic data from around the world to help figure this
out.
With the US economy continuing to improve, the US Fed has indi-
cated that they will bring the taper down to zero. Both unemployment
and inflation seem to be meeting their target levels. However, looking
at treasury yields, there still seems to be very little movement in long
term rates.
It is hard to reconcile this with growth - that would seem to imply a
return to the historically higher interest rates. If the job of the central
bank is to take away the punch bowl before the party gets out of hand
- the market seems to think that the party is just getting started.
S&P corporate profit margins are still very high relative to history
- with significant growth since the recovery started. How this matches
with market growth expectations is not clear.
Formatting Notes The grey bars on the various charts are OECD
recession indicators for the respective countries. In many cases, the last
available value is listed, along with the median value (measured from
as much of the data series as is available).
Subscription Info For a FREE subscription to this monthly re-
port, please visit sign up at our website: www.lairdresearch.com
Laird Research, Jul 17, 2014

2. Indicators for US Economy
Leading indicators are indicators that usually change before the
economy as a whole changes. They are useful as short-term predictors
of the economy. Our list includes the Philly Fed’s Leading Index which
summarizes multiple indicators; initial jobless claims and hours worked
(both decrease quickly when demand for employee services drops and
vice versa); purchasing manager indicies; new order and housing per-
mit indicies; delivery timings (longer timings imply more demand in
the system) and consumer sentiment (how consumers are feeling about
their own financial situation and the economy in general).
Leading Index for the US
Index:Est.6monthgrowth
−3−1123
median: 1.41
May 2014: 1.65
Growth
Contraction
Initial Unemployment Claims
1000'sofClaimsperWeek
200400600
median: 352.50
Jul 2014: 311.50
Manufacturing Ave. Weekly Hours Worked
Hours
394041424344
median: 40.60
Jun 2014: 42.10
ISM Manfacturing − PMI
Index:SteadyState=50
3040506070
median: 53.20
Jun 2014: 55.30
expanding economy
contracting economy
Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods
BillionsofDollars
120160200240
median: 182.32
May 2014: 238.33
ISM Manufacturing: Supplier Deliveries
Index
40506070
median: 51.55
Jun 2014: 51.90
Slower Deliveries
Faster Deliveries
Capex (ex. Defense & Planes)
Percentchange(3months)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10−505
median: 0.86
May 2014: 1.23
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
IndexValue
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−4−202
median: 0.08
May 2014: 0.21
U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
Index1966Q1=100
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
507090110
median: 88.35
Jun 2014: 82.50
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 2

3. Global Financial Markets
Global Stock Market Returns
Country Index Name Close Date Current
Value
Weekly
Change
Monthly
Change
3 month
Change
Yearly
Change
Corr to
S&P500
Corr to
TSX
North America
USA S&P 500 Jul 16 1,981.6 0.4% I 2.3% I 6.4% I 18.2% I 1.00 0.66
USA NASDAQ Composite Jul 16 4,426.0 0.2% I 2.4% I 8.3% I 23.0% I 0.92 0.63
USA Wilshire 5000 Total Market Jul 16 20,934.2 0.1% I 1.8% I 5.8% I 17.9% I 0.99 0.67
Canada S&P TSX Jul 16 15,226.3 0.1% I 1.2% I 5.4% I 21.6% I 0.66 1.00
Europe and Russia
France CAC 40 Jul 16 4,369.1 0.2% I -3.1% J -0.8% J 13.5% I 0.57 0.34
Germany DAX Jul 16 9,859.3 0.5% I -0.3% J 5.8% I 20.2% I 0.52 0.36
United Kingdom FTSE Jul 16 6,784.7 1.0% I 0.4% I 3.0% I 3.5% I 0.51 0.36
Russia Market Vectors Russia ETF Jul 16 26.6 -2.2% J 1.8% I 17.7% I 1.6% I 0.37 0.31
All Europe Euro Stoxx 50 Jul 04 3,270.5 1.3% I 1.0% I 1.2% I 23.6% I 0.57 0.39
Asia
Taiwan TSEC weighted index Jul 16 9,484.7 -0.1% J 3.1% I 6.3% I 14.8% I -0.04 -0.11
China Shanghai Composite Index Jul 04 2,059.4 1.1% I 1.7% I 0.0% I 2.7% I -0.10 0.10
Japan NIKKEI 225 Jul 16 15,379.3 0.5% I 3.0% I 6.7% I 5.3% I 0.05 0.05
Hong Kong Hang Seng Jul 16 23,523.3 1.5% I 1.0% I 3.6% I 10.4% I 0.01 0.07
Korea Kospi Jul 16 2,013.5 0.6% I 1.0% I 1.1% I 7.9% I -0.15 -0.16
South Asia and Austrailia
India Bombay Stock Exchange Jul 16 25,549.7 0.4% I 1.4% I 14.7% I 28.7% I 0.12 0.02
Indonesia Jakarta Jul 16 5,113.9 0.3% I 4.7% I 4.9% I 10.1% I 0.02 -0.07
Malaysia FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Jul 16 1,886.7 -0.2% J 0.8% I 2.2% I 5.6% I -0.01 -0.19
Australia All Ordinaries Jul 16 5,504.5 1.1% I 2.1% I 1.7% I 10.8% I -0.06 0.01
New Zealand NZX 50 Index Gross Jul 16 5,114.2 -0.2% J -1.2% J 0.5% I 11.7% I 0.10 0.18
South America
Brasil IBOVESPA Jul 16 55,717.0 2.1% I 2.0% I 8.8% I 18.9% I 0.05 0.14
Argentina MERVAL Buenos Aires Jul 16 8,548.5 -1.7% J 18.2% I 32.5% I 151.8% I 0.24 0.09
Mexico Bolsa index Jul 16 44,009.2 0.7% I 3.3% I 7.6% I 11.0% I 0.48 0.41
MENA and Africa
Egypt Market Vectors Egypt ETF Jul 16 69.0 0.1% I -0.8% J 2.2% I 56.3% I 0.28 0.25
(Gulf States) Market Vectors Gulf States ETF Jul 16 32.9 3.8% I 4.5% I -0.2% J 33.0% I 0.34 0.07
South Africa iShares MSCI South Africa Index Jul 16 70.2 0.7% I 3.2% I 6.7% I 20.2% I 0.47 0.36
(Africa) Market Vectors Africa ETF Jul 16 33.5 0.4% I 1.5% I 4.8% I 19.7% I 0.57 0.49
Commodities
USD Spot Oil West Texas Int. Jul 14 $101.7 -2.4% J -5.4% J -2.2% J -4.2% J -0.05 0.08
USD Gold LME Spot Jul 16 $1,297.5 -1.9% J 1.2% I -0.1% J 0.9% I -0.26 -0.13
Note: Correlations are based on daily arithmetic returns for the most recent 100 trading days.
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 3

4. S&P 500 Composite Index
The S&P 500 Composite Index is widely regarded as the best single
gauge of the large cap U.S. equities market. A key figure is the valua-
tion level of the S&P500 as measured by the Price/Earnings ratio. We
present two versions: (1) a 12-month trailing earnings version which
reflects current earnings but is skewed by short term variances and (2)
a cyclically adjusted version which looks at the inflation adjusted earn-
ings over a 10 year period (i.e. at least one business cycle). Forecasted
earnings numbers are estimates provided by S&P.
S&P 500 Profit Margins and Overall Corporate Profit Margins (Trailing 12 months)
Percent
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Percent
Total Corporate Profits (% of GDP) − median: 6.2%, Q1/14: 11.2%
Net Profit Margin (S&P 500 Earnings / Revenue) − median: 6.6%, Q2/14: 9.1%
S&P Quarterly Earnings (USD$ Inflation Adjusted to current prices)
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
−5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
−5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Tech Bubble
Japanese Asset Bubble
House BubbleAsian Financial Crisis
US Financial Crisis
Eurozone crisis
Oil Crisis I Oil Crisis II
Gulf War
Savings and Loans Crisis
High Inflation Period
Afganistan/Iraq WarVietnam War
Reported Earnings
Operating Earnings
Trailing P/E Ratios for S&P500
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
Multiple
Multiple
12−month P/E ( median = 17.4, Jul = 18.9)
10−year CAPE ( median = 19.4, Jul = 25.0)
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 4

5. S&P 500 Composite Distributions
This is a view of the price performance of the S&P 500 index com-
panies. The area of each box is proportional to the company’s market
cap, while the colour is determined by the percentage change in price
over the past month. In addition, companies are sorted according to
their industry group.
AAPL
5.5%
GOOG
5.2%
MSFT
8.1%
IBM
3.6%
ORCL
−3.8%
FB
7.3%
INTC
27%
V
4.3%
QCOM CSCO
MA
EBAY
HPQ
EMC TXN
ACN
ADP
MU
ADBE
CRM
STX
MSI
FIS
BRK−A
0.17%
WFC
0.16%
JPM
6.8%
BAC
1.7%
C
4.3%
AXP
AIG
GS
MET MS
BLK
SPG
COF
PNC
BK
PRU
BEN
ACE
TRV
STT
PSA
DFS
BBT
AON CME
EQR
AMP
STI
WY
HST
L
RF
XL
JNJ
0.049%
PFE
4.2%
MRK
GILD
6.7%
UNH BMY BIIB
CELG
LLY
ABT
ESRX
AGN
TMO
BAX
COV
AET
CI
A
BSX
AMZN
15%
DIS
1.3%
CMCSA HD
MCD
FOXA
F
NKE
GM
LOW
DTV TGT
TJX
YUM
VIAB
JCI
CBS
CCL
VFC
M
LB
DG
RL
TIF
GE
1.5%
UTX
UPS
MMM
2.7%
BA
UNP
CAT
GD ITW
DE
DAL
TYC
WM
IR
XOM
3.8%
CVX
7.1%
SLB
12%
COP
9.1%
OXY
EOG HAL
APC
PSX
APA
KMI DVN
SE
RIG
FTI
HP
WMT
0.13%
PG
1.5%
KO
PEP
3.8%
PM
−3.1%
CVS
MO
WAG
MDLZ
CL
RAI
EL KR
K
LO
TAP
MON
DOW
DD
LYB
FCX
PX
PPG
APD
IP
AA
CF
DUK
NEE
D
SO
ED
FE
NI
VZ
2.9%
T
4.2%
Information Technology
Financials
Health Care
Consumer Discretionary
Industrials Energy
Consumer Staples
Materials Utilities
Telecommunications
Services
<−25.0% −20.0% −15.0% −10.0% −5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% >25.0%
% Change in Price from Jun 01, 2014 to Jul 16, 2014
Average Median Median Median
Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E
Energy 6.2% I 2.3 1.9 19.1
Information Technology 5.6% I 3.3 4.0 23.4
Telecommunications Services 3.4% I 1.2 2.0 21.0
Financials 3.2% I 3.0 1.5 18.9
Consumer Discretionary 3.1% I 1.6 4.3 20.1
Average Median Median Median
Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E
Health Care 2.7% I 3.4 3.9 27.0
Materials 2.0% I 1.6 3.6 23.4
Industrials 1.2% I 1.7 3.4 21.7
Utilities 1.1% I 1.4 1.6 18.0
Consumer Staples 1.0% I 2.0 5.2 21.7
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 5

6. US Equity Valuations
A key valuation metric is Tobin’s q: the ratio between the market
value of the entire US stock market versus US net assets at replacement
cost (ie. what you pay versus what you get). Warren Buffet famously
follows stock market value as a percentage of GNP, which is highly
(93%) correlated to Tobin’s q.
We can also take the reverse approach: assume the market has
valuations correct, we can determine the required returns of future es-
timated earnings. These are quoted for both debt (using BAA rated
securities as a proxy) and equity premiums above the risk free rate (10
year US Treasuries). These figures are alternate approaches to under-
standing the current market sentiment - higher premiums indicate a
demand for greater returns for the same price and show the level of
risk-aversion in the market.
Tobin's q (Market Equity / Market Net Worth) and S&P500 Price/Sales
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
Buying assets at a discount
Paying up for growth
Tobin Q (median = 0.75, Mar = 1.11)
S&P 500 Price/Sales (median = 1.32, Jun = 1.72)
Equity and Debt Risk Premiums: Spread vs. Risk Free Rate (10−year US Treasury)
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Implied Equity Premium (median = 4.2%, Jun = 4.8%)
Debt (BAA) Premium (median = 2.0%, Jun = 2.3%)
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 6

7. US Mutual Fund Flows
Fund flows describe the net investments in equity and bond mutual
funds in the US market, as described in ICI’s “Trends in Mutual Fund
Investing” report. Note however that this is only part of the story as
it does not include ETF fund flows - part of the changes are investors
entering or leaving the market, and part is investors shifting to ETF’s
from mutual funds.
US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds
US$billions(monthly)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
−40−2002040
Domestic Equity
World Equity
Taxable Bonds
Municipal Bonds
US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds
US$billions(Monthly)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
−60−40−200204060
Flows to Equity
Flows to Bonds
Net Market Flows
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 7

8. US Key Interest Rates
Interest rates are often leading indicators of stress in the financial
system. The yield curve show the time structure of interest rates on
government bonds - Usually the longer the time the loan is outstanding,
the higher the rate charged. However if a recession is expected, then
the fed cuts rates and this relationship is inverted - leading to negative
spreads where short term rates are higher than long term rates.
Almost every recession in the past century has been preceeded by an
inversion - though not every inversion preceeds a recession (just most
of the time).
For corporate bonds, the key issue is the spread between bond rates
(i.e. AAA vs BAA bonds) or between government loans (LIBOR vs
Fedfunds - the infamous “TED Spread”). Here a spike correlates to an
aversion to risk, which is an indication that something bad is happen-
ing.
US Treasury Yield Curves
ForwardInstantaneousRates(%)
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jul 15, 2014 (Today)
Jun 16, 2014 (1 mo ago)
Apr 15, 2014 (3 mo ago)
15 Jul 2013 (1 yr ago)
3 Month & 10 Yr Treasury Yields
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
10 Yr Treasury
3 Mo Treasury
Spread
AAA vs. BAA Bond Spreads
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Percent
AAA
BAA
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
median: 91.00
Jul 2014: 57.00
0
100
200
300
0
100
200
300
Spread(bps)
LIBOR vs. Fedfunds Rate
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Percent
3 mos t−bill
LIBOR
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
median: 37.00
Jul 2014: 21.36
0
100
200
300
0
100
200
300
Spread(bps)
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 8

9. US Inflation
Generally, the US Fed tries to anchor long run inflation expectations
to approximately 2%. Inflation can be measured with the Consumer
Price Index (CPI) or the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
index.
In both cases, it makes sense to exclude items that vary quickly like
Food and Energy to get a clearer picture of inflation (usually called
Core Inflation). The Fed seems to think PCI more accurately reflects
the entire basket of goods and services that households purchase.
Finally, we can make a reasonable estimate of future inflation ex-
pectations by comparing real return and normal bonds to construct an
imputed forward inflation expectation. The 5y5y chart shows expected
5 year inflation rates at a point 5 years in the future. Neat trick that.
Consumer Price Index
Percent
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
−1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
US Inflation Rate YoY% (May = 2.1%)
US Inflation ex Food & Energy YoY% (May = 1.9%)
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Percent(YearoverYear)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10123456
PCE Inflation Rate YoY% (May = 1.8%)
PCE Core Inflation YoY% (May = 1.5%)
5−Year, 5−Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
Percent
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
−10123456
5 year forward Inflation Expectation
Actual 5yr Inflation (CPI measure)
Actual 5yr Inflation (PCE Measure
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 9

10. QE Taper Tracker
The US has been using the program of Quantitative Easing to pro-
vide monetary stimulous to its economy. The Fed has engaged in a
series of programs (QE1, QE2 & QE3) designed to drive down long
term rates and improve liquidity though purchases of treasuries, mor-
gage backed securites and other debt from banks.
The higher demand for long maturity securities would drive up their
price, but as these securities have a fixed coupon, their yield would be
decreased (yield ≈ coupon / price) thus driving down long term rates.
In 2011-2012, “Operation Twist” attempted to reduce rates without
increasing liquidity. They went back to QE in 2013.
The Fed chairman suggested in June 2013 the economy was recover-
ing enough that they could start slowing down purchases (“tapering”).
The Fed backed off after a brief market panic. The Fed announced in
Dec 2013 that it was starting the taper, a decision partly driven by
seeing key targets of inflation around 2% and unemployment being less
than 6.5%. These charts track that progress.
QE Asset Purchases to Date (Treasury & Mortgage Backed Securities)
Trillions
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
QE1 QE2 Operation Twist QE3 TaperTreasuries
Mortgage Backed Securities
Total Monthly Asset Purchases (Treasury + Mortgage Backed Securities)
Billions
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
Month to date Jul 09: $11.5
Inflation and Unemployment − Relative to Targets
Percent
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
Target Unemployment 6.5%
Target Inflation 2%
U.S. 10 Year and 3 Month Treasury Constant Maturity Yields
Percent
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Short Term Rates:
Once at zero, Fed moved to QE
Long Term Rates:
Moving up in anticipation of Taper?
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 10

11. Exchange Rates
10 Week Moving Average CAD Exchange Rates
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0.620.710.810.901.001.09
USA/CAD
0.550.610.660.720.770.82
Euro/CAD
59.1674.7190.26105.81121.36136.91
Japan/CAD
0.380.440.490.550.610.67
U.K./CAD
0.590.981.361.742.122.51
Brazil/CAD
CAD Appreciating
CAD Depreciating
1 Month Change in Rates versus Average
−3.0%
−1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
Euro
0.7%
UK
−1.6%
Japan
−0.1%
South Korea
0.2%
China
−0.3%
India
1.9%
Brazil
−0.4%
Mexico
1.3%
Canada
−1.0%
USA
−0.4%
% Change over 3 months vs. Canada
<−10.0% −8.0% −6.0% −4.0% −2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% >10.0%
CAD depreciatingCAD appreciating
ARG
−3.9%
AUS
−2.2%
BRA
−1.4%
CHN
−2.0%
IND
−1.6%
RUS
2.7%
USA
−2.1%
EUR
−4.1%
JPY
−1.7%
KRW
−1.4%
MXN
−1.2%
ZAR
−3.5%
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 11

12. US Banking Indicators
The banking and finance industry is a key indicator of the health
of the US economy. It provides crucial liquidity to the economy in the
form of credit, and the breakdown of that system is one of the exac-
erbating factors of the 2008 recession. Key figures to track are the
Net Interest Margins which determine profitability (ie. the difference
between what a bank pays to depositors versus what the bank is paid
by creditors), along with levels of non-performing loans (i.e. loan loss
reserves and actual deliquency rates).
US Banks Net Interest Margin
Percent
3.54.04.5
median: 3.95
2014 Q1: 3.10
Repos Outstanding with Fed. Reserve
BillionsofDollars
50150250
median: 50.42
Jul 2014: 248.25
Bank ROE − Assets between $300M−$1B
Percent
051015
median: 12.85
2014 Q1: 8.89
Consumer Credit Outstanding
%YearlyChange
−505101520
median: 7.06
May 2014: 6.16
Total Business Loans
%YearlyChange
−2001020 median: 7.83
Jun 2014: 9.42
US Nonperforming Loans
Percent
12345
median: 2.39
2014 Q1: 2.50
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0246
median: −0.043
Jul 2014: −1.35
Commercial Paper Outstanding
TrillionsofDollars
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1.01.41.82.2
median: 1.36
Jul 2014: 1.04
Residential Morgage Delinquency Rate
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
246810
median: 2.30
2014 Q1: 7.79
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 12

13. US Employment Indicators
Unemployment rates are considered the “single best indicator of
current labour conditions” by the Fed. The pace of payroll growth is
highly correlated with a number of economic indicators.Payroll changes
are another way to track the change in unemployment rate.
Unemployment only captures the percentage of people who are in
the labour market who don’t currently have a job - another measure
is what percentage of the whole population wants a job (employed or
not) - this is the Participation Rate.
The Beverage Curve measures labour market efficiency by looking
at the relationship between job openings and the unemployment rate.
The curve slopes downward reflecting that higher rates of unemploy-
ment occur coincidentally with lower levels of job vacancies.
Unemployment Rate
Percent
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
median: 6.30
Jun 2014: 6.10
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Percent
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2.02.53.03.54.0
Beverage Curve (Unemployment vs. Job Openings)
Unemployment Rate (%)
JobOpenings(%totalEmployment)
Dec 2000 − Dec 2008
Jan 2009 − Apr 2014
May 2014
Participation Rate
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
6364656667
median: 66.10
Jun 2014: 62.80
Total Nonfarm Payroll Change
MonthlyChange(000s)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−5000500
median: 161.00
Jun 2014: 288.00
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 13

14. There are a number of other ways to measure the health of employ-
ment. The U6 Rate includes people who are part time that want a
full-time job - they are employed but under-utilitized. Temporary help
demand is another indicator of labour market tightness or slack.
The large chart shows changes in private industry employment lev-
els over the past year, versus how well those job segments typically pay.
Lots of hiring in low paying jobs at the expense of higher paying jobs
is generally bad, though perhaps not unsurprising in a recovery.
Median Duration of Unemployment
Weeks
510152025
median: 8.60
Jun 2014: 13.10
(U6) Unemployed + PT + Marginally Attached
Percent
810121416
median: 9.65
Jun 2014: 12.10
4−week moving average of Initial Claims
Jan1995=100
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
50100150200
median: 108.38
Jul 2014: 95.77
Unemployed over 27 weeks
MillionsofPersons
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
01234567
median: 0.78
Jun 2014: 3.00
Services: Temp Help
MillionsofPersons
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1.52.02.5
median: 2.24
Jun 2014: 2.87
0 200 400 600
15
20
25
30
35
Annual Change in Employment Levels (000s of Workers)
Averagewages($/hour)
Private Industry Employment Change (1 year)
Construction
Durable Goods
Education
Financial Activities
Health Services
Information
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Mining and Logging
Nondurable Goods
Other Services
Professional &
Business Services
Retail Trade
Transportation
Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Circle size relative to total employees in industry
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 14

15. US Business Activity Indicators
Business activity is split between manufacturing activity and non-
manufacturing activity. We are focusing on forward looking business
indicators like new order and inventory levels to give a sense of the
current business environment.
Manufacturing Sector: Real Output
YoYPercentChange
−15−5515
median: 6.64
2014 Q1: 10.06
ISM Manufacturing − PMI
Index
3040506070
Jun 2014: 55.30
manufac. expanding
manufac. contracting
ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index
Index
304050607080
Jun 2014: 58.90
Increase in new orders
Decrease in new orders
Non−Manufac. New Orders: Capital Goods
BillionsofDollars
40506070
median: 57.08
May 2014: 70.71
Average Weekly Hours: Manufacturing
Hours
3940414243
median: 41.10
Jun 2014: 42.10
Industrial Production: Manufacturing
YoYPercentChange
−15−50510
median: 3.30
Jun 2014: 3.63
Total Business: Inventories to Sales Ratio
Ratio
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1.11.21.31.41.51.6
median: 1.37
May 2014: 1.29
Chicago Fed: Sales, Orders & Inventory
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−0.50.00.5
May 2014: 0.04
Above ave growth
Below ave growth
ISM Non−Manufacturing Bus. Activity Index
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
35455565
Jun 2014: 57.50
Growth
Contraction
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 15

16. US Consumption Indicators
Variations in consumer activity are a leading indicator of the
strength of the economy. We track consumer sentiment (their expec-
tations about the future), consumer loan activity (indicator of new
purchase activity), and new orders and sales of consumer goods.
U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
Index1966Q1=100
5060708090110
median: 88.35
Jun 2014: 82.50
Consumer Loans (All banks)
YoY%Change
0102030
median: 7.13
Jun 2014: 2.87
Accounting
Change
Deliquency Rate on Consumer Loans
Percent
2.53.03.54.04.5
median: 3.48
2014 Q1: 2.31
New Orders: Durable Consumer Goods
YoY%Change
−30−101030
median: 3.86
May 2014: 3.56
New Orders: Non−durable Consumer Goods
YoY%Change
−2001020
median: 3.94
May 2014: 4.28
Personal Consumption & Housing Index
Index
−0.40.00.2
median: 0.02
May 2014: −0.12above ave growth
below ave growth
Light Cars and Trucks Sales
MillionsofUnits
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
10121416182022
median: 14.73
Jun 2014: 16.92
Personal Saving Rate
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
246810
median: 5.50
May 2014: 4.80
Real Retail and Food Services Sales
YoY%Change
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10−505
median: 2.36
May 2014: 2.15
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 16

17. US Housing
Housing construction is only about 5-8% of the US economy, how-
ever a house is typically the largest asset owned by a household. Since
personal consumption is about 70% of the US economy and house val-
ues directly impact household wealth, housing is an important indicator
in the health of the overall economy. In particular, housing investment
was an important driver of the economy getting out of the last few
recessions (though not this one so far). Here we track housing prices
and especially indicators which show the current state of the housing
market.
15 20 25 30 35
150200250300
Personal Income vs. Housing Prices (Inflation adjusted values)
NewHomePrice(000's)
Disposable Income Per Capita (000's)
Mar 2014
r2
: 88.4%
Range: Jan 1964 − Mar 2014
New Housing Units Permits Authorized
MillionsofUnits
0.51.01.52.02.5
median: 1.36
May 2014: 1.00
New Home Median Sale Price
SalePrice$000's
100150200250
Mar 2014: 290.00
Homeowner's Equity Level
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
4050607080
median: 66.52
2014 Q1: 53.64
New Homes: Median Months on the Market
Months
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
468101214
median: 5.00
May 2014: 3.30
US Monthly Supply of Homes
MonthsSupply
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
4681012
median: 5.90
May 2014: 4.50
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 17

18. US Housing - FHFA Quarterly Index
The Federal Housing Finance Agency provides a quarterly survey
on house prices, based on sales prices and appraisal data. This gener-
ates a housing index for 355 municipal areas in the US from 1979 to
present. We have provided an alternative view of this data looking at
the change in prices from the peak in the 2007 time frame.
The goal is to provide a sense of where the housing markets are
weak versus strong.The colours represent gain or losses since the start
of the housing crisis (defined as the maximum price between 2007-2009
for each city). The circled dots are the cities in the survey, while the
background colours are interpolated from these points using a loess
smoother.
Change from 2007 Peak − Q1 2014
−50%
−40%
−30%
−20%
−10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Today's Home Prices
Percentage Change from 2007−2009 Peak
Frequency
−75% −50% −25% 0% 25% 50% 75%
Year over Year Change − Q1 2014
−10%
−8%
−6%
−4%
−2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
YoY Change in this quarter
YoY Percent Change
Frequency
−15% −5% 5% 15%
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 18

19. Global Business Indicators
Global PMI Reports
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an indicator reflecting
purchasing managers’ acquisition of goods and services. An index read-
ing of 50.0 means that business conditions are unchanged, a number
over 50.0 indicates an improvement while anything below 50.0 suggests
a decline. The further away from 50.0 the index is, the stronger the
change over the month. The chart at the bottom shows a moving av-
erage of a number of PMI’s, along with standard deviation bands to
show a global average.
Global PMI − June 2014
<40.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 >60.0
Steady ExpandingContracting
Eurozone
51.8
Global PMI
52.7
TWN
54.0MEX
51.8
KOR
48.4
JPN
51.5
VNM
52.3
IDN
52.7
ZAF
46.6
AUS
48.9
BRA
48.7
CAN
53.5
CHN
50.7
IND
51.5
RUS
49.1
SAU
59.2
USA
57.3
Global PMI Monthly Change
<−5.0 −4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 >5.0
PMI Change ImprovingDeteriorating
Eurozone
−0.4
Global PMI
0.5
TWN
1.6MEX
−0.1
KOR
−1.1
JPN
1.6
VNM
−0.2
IDN
0.3
ZAF
2.3
AUS
−0.3
BRA
−0.1
CAN
1.3
CHN
1.3
IND
0.1
RUS
0.2
SAU
2.2
USA
0.9
Purchase Managers Index (Manufacturing) − China, Japan, USA, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Australia
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
3040506070
3040506070
Business Conditions Contracting
Business Conditions Expanding
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 19

20. Global PMI Chart
This is an alternate view of the global PMI reports. Here, we look
at all the various PMI data series in a single chart and watch their
evolution over time.
Red numbers indicate contraction (as estimated by PMI) while
green numbers indicate expansion.
Jun12
Jul12
Aug12
Sep12
Oct12
Nov12
Dec12
Jan13
Feb13
Mar13
Apr13
May13
Jun13
Jul13
Aug13
Sep13
Oct13
Nov13
Dec13
Jan14
Feb14
Mar14
Apr14
May14
Jun14
Australia
India
Indonesia
Vietnam
Taiwan
China
Korea
Japan
South Africa
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Russia
United Kingdom
Greece
Germany
France
Italy
Czech Republic
Spain
Poland
Ireland
Netherlands
Eurozone
Brazil
Mexico
Canada
United States
Global PMI 49.7 48.8 48.7 48.7 48.9 49.6 50.0 51.5 50.9 51.2 50.4 50.6 50.6 50.8 51.6 51.8 52.1 53.1 53.3 53.0 53.2 52.4 51.9 52.2 52.7
52.5 51.4 51.5 51.1 51.0 52.8 56.1 55.8 54.3 54.6 52.1 52.3 52.0 53.7 53.1 52.8 51.8 54.7 55.0 53.7 57.1 55.5 55.4 56.4 57.3
54.8 53.1 53.0 52.4 51.4 50.4 50.4 50.5 51.7 49.3 50.1 53.2 52.4 52.0 52.1 54.2 55.6 55.3 53.5 51.7 52.9 53.3 52.9 52.2 53.5
55.9 55.2 55.1 54.4 55.5 55.6 57.1 55.0 53.4 52.2 51.7 51.7 51.3 49.7 50.8 50.0 50.2 51.9 52.6 54.0 52.0 51.7 51.8 51.9 51.8
48.5 48.7 49.3 49.8 50.2 52.2 51.1 53.2 52.5 51.8 50.8 50.4 50.4 48.5 49.4 49.9 50.2 49.7 50.5 50.8 50.4 50.6 49.3 48.8 48.7
45.1 46.5 46.3 46.1 45.4 46.8 46.1 47.9 47.9 46.8 46.7 48.3 48.8 50.3 51.4 51.1 51.3 51.6 52.7 54.0 53.2 53.0 53.4 52.2 51.8
48.9 48.9 49.7 50.7 48.9 48.2 49.6 50.2 49.0 48.0 48.2 48.7 48.8 50.8 53.5 55.8 54.4 56.8 57.0 54.8 55.2 53.7 53.4 53.6 52.3
53.1 53.9 50.9 51.8 52.1 52.4 51.4 50.3 51.5 48.6 48.0 49.7 50.3 51.0 52.0 52.7 54.9 52.4 53.5 52.8 52.9 55.5 56.1 55.0 55.3
48.0 49.7 48.3 47.0 47.3 48.2 48.5 48.6 48.9 48.0 46.9 48.0 49.3 51.1 52.6 53.1 53.4 54.4 53.2 55.4 55.9 54.0 52.0 50.8 50.3
41.1 42.3 44.0 44.5 43.5 45.3 44.6 46.1 46.8 44.2 44.7 48.1 50.0 49.8 51.1 50.7 50.9 48.6 50.8 52.2 52.5 52.8 52.7 52.9 54.6
49.4 49.5 48.7 48.0 47.2 48.2 46.0 48.3 49.9 49.1 49.5 50.1 51.0 52.0 53.9 53.4 54.5 55.4 54.7 55.9 56.5 55.5 56.5 57.3 54.7
44.6 44.3 43.6 45.7 45.5 45.1 46.7 47.8 45.8 44.5 45.5 47.3 49.1 50.4 51.3 50.8 50.7 51.4 53.3 53.1 52.3 52.4 54.0 53.2 52.6
45.2 43.4 46.0 42.7 43.7 44.5 44.6 42.9 43.9 44.0 44.4 46.4 48.4 49.7 49.7 49.8 49.1 48.4 47.0 49.3 49.7 52.1 51.2 49.6 48.2
45.0 43.0 44.7 47.4 46.0 46.8 46.0 49.8 50.3 49.0 48.1 49.4 48.6 50.7 51.8 51.1 51.7 52.7 54.3 56.5 54.8 53.7 54.1 52.3 52.0
40.1 41.9 42.1 42.2 41.0 41.8 41.4 41.7 43.0 42.1 45.0 45.3 45.4 47.0 48.7 47.5 47.3 49.2 49.6 51.2 51.3 49.7 51.1 51.0 49.4
48.4 45.2 49.6 48.1 47.3 49.2 51.2 50.5 47.9 48.6 50.2 51.3 52.9 54.8 57.2 56.3 56.5 58.4 57.3 56.7 56.2 55.3 57.3 57.0 57.5
51.0 52.0 51.0 52.4 52.9 52.3 50.0 52.0 52.0 50.8 50.6 50.4 51.7 49.2 49.4 49.4 51.8 49.4 48.8 48.0 48.5 48.3 48.5 48.9 49.1
51.4 49.4 50.0 52.2 52.5 51.6 53.1 54.0 53.5 52.3 51.3 51.1 51.2 49.8 50.9 54.0 53.3 55.0 53.5 52.7 53.4 51.7 51.1 50.1 48.8
59.8 57.0 58.9 58.1 58.5 58.9 58.0 57.3 56.6 56.6 57.5 58.7 56.7 57.1 58.7 59.7 58.6 57.0 58.5 57.0 59.2
47.1 49.5 47.4 49.1 53.6 49.3 50.5 50.4 51.6 52.2 56.5 49.1 51.5 51.6 50.5 50.3 51.5 50.3 47.4 44.3 46.6
49.9 47.9 47.7 48.0 46.9 46.5 45.0 47.7 48.5 50.4 51.1 51.5 52.3 50.7 52.2 52.5 54.2 55.1 55.2 56.6 55.5 53.9 49.4 49.9 51.5
47.2 49.4 47.5 45.7 47.4 48.2 50.1 49.9 50.9 52.0 52.6 51.1 49.4 47.2 47.5 49.7 50.2 50.4 50.8 50.9 49.8 50.4 50.2 49.5 48.4
50.2 50.1 49.2 49.8 50.2 50.6 51.5 50.4 50.4 51.6 50.4 49.2 48.2 47.7 50.1 50.2 50.9 50.8 50.5 49.5 48.5 48.0 48.1 49.4 50.7
49.2 47.5 46.1 45.6 47.8 47.4 50.6 51.5 50.2 51.2 50.7 47.1 49.5 48.6 50.0 52.0 53.0 53.4 55.2 55.5 54.7 52.7 52.3 52.4 54.0
46.6 43.6 47.9 49.2 48.7 50.5 49.3 50.1 48.3 50.8 51.0 48.8 46.4 48.5 49.4 51.5 51.5 50.3 51.8 52.1 51.0 51.3 53.1 52.5 52.3
50.2 51.4 51.6 50.5 51.9 51.5 50.7 49.7 50.5 51.3 51.7 51.6 51.0 50.7 48.5 50.2 50.9 50.3 50.9 51.0 50.5 50.1 51.1 52.4 52.7
55.0 52.9 52.8 52.8 52.9 53.7 54.7 53.2 54.2 52.0 51.0 50.1 50.3 50.1 48.5 49.6 49.6 51.3 50.7 51.4 52.5 51.3 51.3 51.4 51.5
47.2 40.3 45.3 44.1 45.2 44.3 44.3 40.2 45.6 44.4 36.7 43.8 49.6 42.0 46.4 51.7 53.2 47.7 47.6 46.7 48.6 47.9 44.8 49.2 48.9
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 20

21. OECD International Trade Data
The OECD calculates import and export values for member coun-
tries. Figures are seasonally adjusted and measured in billions of US
dollars. Red lines indicate exports, while blue lines indicate imports.
Green lines indicate the zero level.
The top part of the graph shows the changes in exports and imports
on a year-over-year basis, while the bottom part shows the difference
between exports and imports for that given month (i.e. the trade bal-
ance)
China
YoYChange
−40
−20
0
20
40
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10
0
10
20
30
40
US
YoYChange
−60
−40
−20
0
20
40
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−80
−60
−40
−20
0
Canada
YoYChange
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−2
0
2
4
6
Germany
YoYChange
−40
−20
0
20
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
JapanYoYChange
−30
−20
−10
0
10
20
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10
−5
0
5
10
South Korea
YoYChange
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
India
YoYChange
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−15
−10
−5
0
Australia
YoYChange
−6
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
Eurozone
YoYChange
−80
−60
−40
−20
0
20
40
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10
0
10
20
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 21

22. Canadian Indicators
Unemployment rate
Percent
67891011
median: 7.40
Jun 2014: 7.10
Permits issued for Dwelling
YoYPercentChange
−50050100
Jun 2014: 2.34
Retail Sales
YoYPercentChange
−50510
median: 4.82
Apr 2014: 5.06
Inflation rate
YoYPercentChangeinCPI
−1012345
median: 1.68
May 2014: 2.28
Emp. Particiaption Rate
62636465666768
median: 65.90
Jun 2014: 66.10
Housing Prices
YoYPercentChange
−5051015
median: 1.96
May 2014: 1.55
Money Supply (M2)
YoYPercentChange
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
051015
median: 5.88
May 2014: 5.58
PMI: Manufacturing
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
40506070
median: 56.50
Jun 2014: 53.50
Retail Sales Performance
YoYPercentChange
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−50510
median: 4.28
Apr 2014: 3.23
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 22

23. European Indicators
Unemployment Rates
Percentage
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
05101520
Business Employment Expectations
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−40−20010
Volume of Retail Sales (ex−cars)
Index(Jan2010=100)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
60708090110130
Manufacturing Turnover
Index(Jan2010=100)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
60708090110130
Building Permits
Index(Jan2010=100)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0100200300400500
Industrial Orderbook Levels
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−60−40−20020
Country Employment
Expect.
Unempl.
(%)
Bond Yields
(%)
Retail
Turnover
Manufacturing
Turnover
Building
Permits
Industry
Orderbook
PMI
Series Dates Jun 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 May 2014 May 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jun 2014
France -12.2 10.1 1.71 105.1 109.7 68.94 -25.6 48.2
Germany -1.4 5.1 1.26 101.4 113.3 140.58 -8.5 52
United Kingdom 10.3 6.6 2.35 104.84 105.87 NA 9.5 57.5
Italy -5.6 12.6 2.92 93.18 97.87 NA -18.9 52.6
Greece -4.1 26.8 5.93 74.05 98.8 13.41 -20.8 49.4
Spain -5.5 25.1 2.72 82.61 102.53 68.97 -19.1 54.6
Eurozone -2.6 10.3 2.93 99.34 109.75 NA -13.5 NA
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 23

24. Government Bond YieldsLongTermYields%
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0246810
Economic Sentiment
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
60708090110130
Consumer Confidence
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−100−60−20020
Production of Total Industry: Dec 2013
<−10.0%−7.5%−5.0%−2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5%>10.0%
YoY % Difference increasingdecreasing
AUT
0.44%
DEU
3.86%
ESP
2.39%
FIN
−3.84%
FRA
0.71%
GBR
1.89%
GRC
−1.77%
HUN
4.64%
IRL
−6.86%
ITA
−0.87%
NOR
−2.71%
POL
4.68%
RUS
0.09%
SWE
−2.91%
Inflation: Dec 2013
AUT
1.9%
DEU
1.4%
ESP
0.3%
FIN
1.6%
FRA
0.7%
GBR
2.0%
GRC
−1.7%
HUN
0.4%
IRL
0.2%
ITA
0.7%
NOR
2.0%
POL
0.7%
SWE
0.1%
<−1.0%0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% >7.0%
YoY % Change in Prices
PMI: June 2014
<40.042.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0>60.0
Steady ExpandingContracting
BRA
48.7
CAN
53.5
DEU
52.0
ESP
54.6
FRA
48.2
GBR
57.5
GRC
49.4
IRL
55.3
ITA
52.6
MEX
51.8
POL
50.3
SAU
59.2
TUR
48.8
USA
57.3
PMI Change: May − Jun
<−5.0−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 >5.0
PMI Change ImprovingDeteriorating
CAN
1.3
DEU
−0.3
ESP
1.7
FRA
−1.4
GBR
0.5
GRC
−1.6
IRL
0.3
ITA
−0.6
POL
−0.5
TUR
−1.3
USA
0.9
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 24

25. Chinese Indicators
Tracking the Chinese economy is a tricky. As reported in the Finan-
cial Times, Premier Li Keqiang, confided to US officials in 2007 that
gross domestic product was “man made” and “for reference only”. In-
stead, he suggested that it was much more useful to focus on three alter-
native indicators: electricity consumption, rail cargo volumes and bank
lending (still tracking down that last one). We also include the PMI
- which is an official version put out by the Chinese government and
differs slightly from an HSBC version. Finally we include the Shanghai
Composite Index as a measure of stock performance.
Manufacturing PMI
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
4045505560
Jun 2014: 50.70
Shanghai Composite Index
IndexValue(MonthlyHigh/Low)
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
100020003000400050006000
Jul 2014: 2059.38
Electricity Generated
100MillionKWH(logscale)
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1000200030005000
May 2014: 4416.00
Electricity Generated
Long Term Trend
Short Term Average
Consumer Confidence Index
Index
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
98100102104106108
median: 102.90
May 2014: 102.30
Exports
YoYPercentChange
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−20020406080
median: 19.40
Jun 2014: 7.20
Retail Sales Change
YoYPercentChange
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
101520
median: 13.20
Jun 2014: 12.40
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 25

26. Global Climate Change
Temperature and precipitation data are taken from the US National
Climatic Data Center and presented as the average monthly anomaly
from the previous 6 months. Anomalies are defined as the difference
from the average value over the period from 1961-1990 for precipitation
and 1971-2000 for temperature.
Average Temperature Anomalies from Dec 2013 - May 2014
<−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 >4.0
Anomalies in Celcius WarmerCooler Anomalies in Celcius
−4 −2 0 2 4
Average 6 month Precipitation Anomalies from Jan 2014 - Jun 2014
<−40.0 −30.0 −20.0 −10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 >40.0
Anomalies in millimeters WetterDrier Anomalies in millimeters
−40 −20 0 20 40
www.lairdresearch.com Jul 17, 2014 Page 26