This document makes 40 predictions about the future of virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) technologies between 2016 and 2025. Some of the key predictions include: 1) VR headsets will be permanently in the consumer market starting in 2016; 2) By 2020 there will be around 1 billion PC/console gamers and 4 billion smartphone users; 3) By 2020 VR porn will be a $1 billion industry worldwide. The document predicts widespread adoption and integration of VR and AR technologies across gaming, entertainment, social platforms, and other industries over the next decade.

1. VR and AR:
2016, 2020, 2025
Jesse Schell
VRX 2015

8. CrystalBallSociety.com

10. Market

13. Prediction 1: Starting in 2016, VR headsets will be in
the consumer market
permanently

14. ?=1M
300K x 10 = 3M
10% of 40M = 4M
Prediction 2: In 2016, eight million
gamer headsets will
be sold.

15. Prediction 3: In general, there will be four
mobile headsets for each gamer headset.

16. Prediction 4: Headset sales will double each
year until saturation is reached.
Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Gamer VR 8M 16M 32M 64M 128M 256M 512M
Mobile VR 32M 64M 128M 256M 512M 1B 2B
Note: By 2020, there will
be about one billion PC/Console gamers,
and about four billion smartphone users.

17. Prediction 5: Fifty different headsets will
be featured at CES 2017.

18. Prediction 6: Through 2018, overheating
VR phones will still be a problem.
Freezing them will be common.

19. Prediction 7: As soon as Sony sells 10M
headsets, Microsoft will announce one for
XBoxOne (probably E3 2018).

20. Games

21. Prediction 8: An asymmetric party game
will be a top ten VR game by end of 2017.

22. Prediction 9:
Madden 2018
will have a VR
edition.

23. Prediction 10: By the
end of 2018, a major
new VR-centric
game genre will
appear.

25. Fears

26. Prediction 11: By the end of 2017, the media will
blame at least one mass shooting on a VR game.

27. Prediction 12: By
end of 2017, news
stories about “VR
Addiction” will be
frequent.

28. Prediction 13:
By the end of
2018, there
will be at
least three
movies
playing on
fears of VR.

29. Filmmaking

30. Prediction 14:
Documentaries
will be the first
VR films to win
major awards.

31. Prediction 15: By 2020, VR porn
will be a $1B industry worldwide.

32. Prediction 16:
By 2020, there
will be at least
ten Virtual
Reality
Reality Shows.

33. Prediction 17:
The Divine
Comedy will
provide a
model for
successful
VR
storytelling.

35. Prediction 18:
By end of 2018,
will have a VR
channel.

36. Prediction 19: For feature films to
work in VR, they will need to be
social. We’ll figure this out by 2025.

37. Social

38. Prediction 20: By 2025, the majority of VR
revenue will be from social experiences.

39. Prediction 21:
By 2020, one of
the top ten VR
games will be
a dance game.

40. Prediction 22: By 2025, VR/AR
Boardgames will be a $100M business.

41. Prediction 23: By end of 2020, at least one
VR MMO will have > 1M subscribers.

42. Prediction 24: By the end of 2018, there
will be a leading VR social platform,
and it won’t be the old guard.

43. Prediction 25: By 2018, VR Emotes will be
very popular, and have a stupid name.

44. LBE

45. Prediction 26:
In 2017, every
US State Fair
will have a VR
Attraction.

46. Give them
something
they can’t get
at home.
Rule #1:

47. Prediction 27: By 2020 There will be
at least 20 VR coasters worldwide.

49. Prediction 28: By 2025 Bowling
with AR Glasses will be a thing.

50. Touch

58. Prediction 29:
By 2020,
trackable
props for VR
and AR will
be common.

59. Prediction 30:
Also in 2020,
trackable
snacks.

63. Prediction 31: In 2025, Robots will touch you in VR
and you’ll
like it.

64. Augmented Reality

65. Prediction 32: by 2025, 80% of VR/AR
devices will be one or the other, not both.

66. Prediction 33:
AR
experiences
synced with
TV will be a
thing.

67. Prediction 34: Augmented reality
lectures popular by 2025

68. Prediction 35: By 2025, chasing phantoms
in your house will be only for children.

69. Technology

70. Prediction 36: By 2018, gamers will
wear narrow glasses or get contacts.

71. Prediction 37: By 2020, really hardcore
gamers will have prescription lenses.

72. Pred. 38: By 2020, Eye tracking
VR headsets will be available.

73. Pred. 39: By 2020, Foveated Rendering
will exist. By 2025, it will be useful.

74. Pred. 40: By 2025, There will be no
more corded VR systems.

75. Thanks!
Slides: jesseschell.com
Twitter: @jesseschell
Email: jesse@schellgames.com