1. The Application of the Soil Water Assessment
Tool (“SWAT”) in Easter Nile River Basin
Jorge Escurra
October, 2011
Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011
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2. ENPM seeks to encourage use of public-
domain modeling tools especially using
available public-domain global and local
datasets
Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
is a popular tool for water modeling –
especially water balance assessments
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Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011

3. Models and Databases
 “Models are feed by databases”
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Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011

4. Solving a Problem
Disaster happened : DC - Irene
Hurricane (2011)
Webpage Models
GPS - Pictures/Photos
Or - Coordinates Lat and Long
Cell phones - Physical characteristics such as,,,,
- “Unique code” Database
“Update” –
autonomous way
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Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011

5. SWAT
Soil water Assessment Tool is a long term
continuous watershed simulation model.
It was developed by Jeff Arnold for the USDA
Agriculture Research Service (ARS) in 1998.
SWAT was developed to predict the impact of
land management practices on
water, sediment, climate change, and agriculture
chemicals yields.
Daily time steps.
Physically based (hydrology, plant
growth, nutrients, pesticides and land
management)
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Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011

6. SWAT
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7. LOGO
Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011

8. How to Use SWAT
SWAT model allows users to:
• Use a GIS interface.
• Consider the topographical characteristics.
• Use Hydrological Response Units.
• Download and use open source code.
• Access SWAT2009.mdb
SWAT model uses the following equations
(SWAT Manual and J Schuol, 2005):
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Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011

9. SWAT Process - Bolivia
INPUT
Digital Elevation Model Basin delineation Climate data Soil types Land use
Kc
SWAT
Infrastructure dams and irrigation schemes
Crop calendar and agriculture practices
OUTPUT
Precipitation Evapotranspiration Sediments Water yield Soil water moisture
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Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011

10. Model accuracy
Divide available time series…
Flow (m 3/s)
Set up Calibration Validation
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Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011

11. Validation/Calibration
indicators
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Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011

12. Beni Basin
Indicador Valor Calificación
RRSME 0.48 muy bueno
NSE 0.54 Satisfactorio
R2 0.6
PBIAS 1.5 muy bueno
Indicador Valor Calificación
RRSME 0.44 muy bueno
NSE 0.65 bueno
R2 0.82LOGO
PBIAS 28 insatisfactorio

13. Ganges: Basic Model
Results
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Emerging Talent Water Series, 2011

14. Climate Change
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Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011

15. LOGO
Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011

16. LOGO

17. Runoff will change… but in which direction?
Mid-Century Monthly Flow Scenarios at Farakka Flo Rate in Farakka - Ganges Basin
100000
90,000
1969
1970
80,000 90000 1971
1972
1973
70,000 80000 1974
1975
1976
60,000 1977
70000
1978
Flow rate (m3/s)
1979
50,000 1980
60000 1981
1982
Flow rate (cms)
40,000
1983
50000 1984
30,000 1985
1986
1987
40000 1988
20,000
1989
1990
10,000 30000 1991
1992
1993
0 1994
20000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1995
1996
BCM - 2050 UKMO - 2050 CMA - 2050 IPSL - 2050 1997
10000 1998
CNRM - 2050 CSIRO_MK3 - 2050 GFDL_CM2_0 - 2050 GFDL_CM2_1 - 2050
1999
GISS - 2050 INMCM3 - 2050 MIROC3 - 2050 MIUB_ECHO - 2050
2000
MPI_ECHAM - 2050 MRI_CGCM2 - 2050 NCAR_CCSM3 - 2050 NCAR_PSM1 - 2050
0 2001
Baseline (1969 - 2001) Baseline
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Model Historical data
1970-2000
predictions 2050
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Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011

18. Hydropower Sensitivity to Climate Change Models (2050 A2 Scenarios)
Tamur-1
Lower Arun 100% Sun Kosi-2
Arun III Andhi Khola
50%
Sapt kosi Kali Gandaki-1
0%
%HP Change BCM
%HP Change CMA
Kulekhani-1 -50% Kali Gandaki-2 %HP Change GFDL_CM2
%HP Change GISS
%HP Change MIU_ECHO
-100%
%HP Change CSIRO
Kamala Seti-1 (Central)
%HP Change CNRM
%HP Change UKMO
%HP Change MIROC
Pancheswor Marsyandi %HP Change NCARPM1
Seti-6 (West) Burhi Gandaki
Karnali-1B Sapta Gandaki
Chisapani Trisuli
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Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011

19. What we can do in
the Nile Basin?
Land use Weather Soil Types
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Ethiopia - Workshop, 2011

20. LOGO
Emerging Talent Water Series, 2011