How liberal democracy can die ....on our watch: A pictures-and-charts summary for-the-busy

How liberal democracy can die
….on our watch
A pictures-and-charts summary for-the-busy

Democracy has regressed in multiple countries
since 2007, and liberal democracy especially
7th Jan
2016
12th Jun
2018
In 1941 there were only a dozen democracies; by 2000 only 8 states had
never held a serious election. But then came the financial crisis.

7th Jan
2016
8th Jan
2019
The Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index
scores 167 countries 0-10 based on 60 indicators.
Today just 4.5% of the world’s people live
in a “full democracy”

7th Jan
2016
July
2016
“Even in some of the richest and most politically stable regions of the
world, it seems as though democracy is in a state of serious disrepair.”
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
65+ 45 - 64
Europe
2010-12
35 - 44 25 - 34 16 - 24
USA
2011
USA
1995
Europe
1995-97
Source: World Values Surveys
Foa & Mounck 2016
Significant minorities oppose democracy in the
USA & Europe …and the numbers are growing
Percentage of the
population viewing
“having a democratic
political system” as a
“bad” or “very bad”
way to “run this
country” is rising
on both sides of
the Atlantic.

“How the Populist Right Is Redrawing
the Map of Europe”
7th Jan
2016
11th Dec
2017
“A rising tide of anti-immigrant and populist sentiment that is sweeping
aside or weakening mainstream party politics across the continent.”

7th Jan
2016
22nd Apr
2019
“The age of the elected despot is here”:
Martin Wolf in the FT

Much of this is being fueled by enforced migration and
associated hate-mongering and nationalism by overt
authoritarians and the authoritarian-inclined

Russia and Syria are “weaponising the refugee
crisis” in an effort to destabilise Europe
2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
3rd Mar
2016
So General Phil Breedlove, Nato’s Supreme Allied Commander for
Europe and head of the US European Command, testifies.

Meanwhile Orban’s state-controlled media pump out scare stories about
migration-linked crime and terrorism, and the “Soros network”.
Hungarian government tables new law that could
jail lawyers advising migrants of their rights
7th Jan
2016
3rd Jun
2018
Future Today

Erdoğan narrowly wins Turkish election in “climate
of fear”, assuming quasi-dictatorial powers
7th Jan
2016
24th Jun
2018
A pro-government television station accidentally aired election results 3
days before the polls ..showing the 53 % that Erdoğan actually achieved.

7th Jan
2016
22nd May
2019
Far-right racist lies flood Facebook, viewed half a
billion times across Europe ahead of EU Elections
So a major investigation by Avaaz finds. Facebook, notified of 500 hate-
propaganda sites viewed >500 million times in 3 months, takes down 77.

7th Jan
2016
7th Jun
2019
The FT’s chief political commentator suggests that
Trump and Johnson both threaten democracy
Philip Stevens argues that this is because they share a politics
that ignores truth in pursuit of nationalism and xenophobia.

7th Jan
2016
27th Jun
2019
Liberalism “has outlived its purpose”, President
Putin tells the FT ahead of the G20 Summit
He has met with President Xi 28 times since 2012 as Russia and China
move closer on energy investment, trade, defence co-operation.

7th Jan
2016
1st Apr
2019
c. 40 US states still used election technology such as voting machines
that were a decade or more out of date, with no software patches.
“US ripe for Russian meddling in 2020 vote,
experts warn”

This is happening at just the time the tech
industry is serving up technologies and
strategies perfect, in principle,
for the creation and operation of
unbreakable police states
By this I mean present and imminent
developments including….

7th Jan
2016
26th Dec
2016
“2016: The Mainstream Media Melted Down
as Fake News Festered”
By August 2016 fake news was increasingly outperforming
the top stories at the 19 major news outlets

Amanda Taub & Max Fisher on role of fake news: “Facebook’s newsfeed
played a central role in nearly every step from rumor to killing.”
“Where Countries Are Tinderboxes and Facebook
Is a Match”
7th Jan
2016
21st Apr
2018
Buddhist mob
burns a Muslim
- owned shop
in Sri Lanka,
March 2018

“Buzzer teams” with multiple fake Twitter, Instagram and Facebook
accounts fan religious and racial divides.
7th Jan
2016
23rd July
2018
Both sides in an Indonesian election use fake social-
media-account “factories” to whip up hatred

>1,000 posts attacking the Rohingya and other Muslims uncovered. FB
has failed to fix a problem Zuckerberg promised to fix 4 months ago.
7th Jan
2016
15th Aug
2018
“Why Facebook is losing the war on hate speech in
Myanmar”: a bombshell Reuters investigation

7th Jan
2016
19th Oct
2018
Saudi Twitter army launches blizzard defence of
beleaguered leader after Khashoggi disappearance
Researchers track a web of loyalist accounts - real people and bots.
1.1 m uses of Arabic hashtag “We all trust in Mohammed bin Salman”.

A US National Bureau of Economic Research study suggests they added
fully 3.2% to the Trump vote and a crucial 1.76% to pro Leave.
Twitter bots may have altered outcomes of both
Trump and Brexit elections by targeting margins
7th Jan
2016
21st May
2018

Report lays bare how Facebook & Google misled
Congress on extent of Russia’s meme warfare
7th Jan
2016
17th Dec
2018
The most in-depth report yet on the Internet Research Agency, for the
Senate Intelligence Committee, shows enormous scale of trolls’ boosting
of Trump on Facebook, YouTube, and - in particular - Instagram.

So an Associated Press investigation finds, in the case of many Google
services on Android devices and iPhones.
7th Jan
2016
13th Aug
2018
Google records your location even after you have
used a privacy setting telling it not to

7th Jan
2016
6th July
2018
“The threat that such a massive, automated surveillance apparatus
poses to society far outweighs the security benefits it could provide.”
Amazon’s AI lets governments track all faces:
“there is no way to use this and not harm citizens”
“As academics who have studied IT and privacy, including the social
implications of face recognition and biometrics, we are calling on
Amazon to get out of the surveillance business”: Peter Asaro et al

“Within 2 or 3 years we may be watching moving images and speeches
without anyone being able to tell whether they are real or fabrications.”
7th Jan
2016
25th July
2018
“Current fake news pales in comparison to the harm
that could come from deepfakes” Roula Khalaf
in the FT

7th Jan
2016
27th Aug
2018
Open source software created by graphics firm Nvidia and MIT. New
Scientist fears it “could be used to warp our perception of the world.”
AI can now make high-definition fake videos from
just a simple sketch overlain on a trained template

7th Jan
2016
13th Mar
2017
Microsoft researcher warns AI is “ripe for abuse”
by authoritarian regimes
“This is a fascist’s dream - power without accountability”:
Kate Crawford

George Soros: Facebook and Google are a “menace”
to society and must be regulated
7th Jan
2016
26th Jan
2018
He fears merger of their AI-based surveillance with that of states,
leading to “a web of totalitarian control the likes of which not even
Aldous Huxley or George Orwell could have imagined.”

Elon Musk warns of prospect for “an immortal
dictator from which we can never escape”
7th Jan
2016
6th Apr
2018
This in a documentary on AI and robotics out today, “Do You Trust This
Computer?” Google’s DeepMind is a big step in this direction, he says.
“If one company or small group of people manages to
develop godlike digital superintelligence, they could
take over the world,"

These are far from lone voices:
many lead practitioners in the tech industry
are literally begging to be regulated

7th Jan
2016
8th Jan
2017
Hundreds of AI / robotics researchers develop 23
principles for global use: the Asilomar Principles
Principle 23 Common Good: Superintelligence should only be
developed in the service of widely shared ethical ideals, and for the
benefit of all humanity rather than one state or organization
Principle 17 Non-subversion: The power conferred by control of highly
advanced AI systems should respect and improve, rather than subvert,
the social and civic processes on which the health of society depends.

The weapons needed for absolute subjugation
of populations are neither large nor costly
and they exist today
For example…..

The CEO of a fictional robotics company launches a killer drone
technology Silicon-Valley-style. In real life, there are all shapes & sizes….
AI researchers create terrifying video in a call for a
UN ban on autonomous weapons (killer robots)
7th Jan
2016
1st Dec
2017

“A Global Arms Race for Killer Robots
Is Transforming Warfare”
7th Jan
2016
9th Apr
2018
Stuart Russell, professor of artificial intelligence at Berkeley: “We have
an opportunity to prevent this, but the window to act is closing fast.”

“...cheap and convenient assassination machines
available to everybody with an axe to grind”
7th Jan
2016
28th Aug
2017
So Max Tegmark, professor of physics at MIT, co-founder of the Future
of Life Institute, describes killer robots. As one of 10 reasons for a ban.

7th Jan
2016
Oct
2018
Boston Dynamics films a video of its SpotMini
robot, dancing (well) ….and due on sale in 2019
Now imagine it with poison fangs and facial recognition software. Then
imagine thousands roaming the streets seeking (deemed) miscreants.

Which must mean that much depends on how
tech-savvy younger citizens engage
And that is a worry, because….

7th Jan
2016
The younger you are in the USA and Europe,
the less you are likely to care about democracy
July
2016
Highest: more than 70% in Europeans born in the 1930s.
Lowest: little more than 30% in Americans born in the 1980s.
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30% by birth cohort
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s
Europe
USA
The percent of the
population who deem it
“essential” (10 on a 10
point scale) to live in a
country governed
democratically is falling on
both sides of the Atlantic
Foa & Mounk 2016

So it is clearly crucial how the super-rich in tech
line up in the fight for liberal democracy
And that is a terrifying thought,
because….

% in USA responding that it
would be “good” or “very
good” to have “a strong leader”
who “doesn’t have to bother
with parliament and elections”:
1995: <20%
2010: >34%
7th Jan
2016
July
2016
Upper income
respondents
Lower and middle
income
respondents
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
1995 2000 20102005
Rising support for illiberal politics is growing fastest
among the rich elite in the USA
Most strong in young & rich (born since 1970): Those believing that it
would be a “good” thing for the army to take over: 1995 6%, 2016 35%
Foa & Mounk 2016

The slack regulation of modern capitalism – even
after the excesses of the 2007-2008 financial crisis –
stoke the potential for disaster, as things stand

Aeisha Mastagni: “Who is it that holds Mr Zuckerberg to account?” One
share should equal one vote. “Facebook, it is time to act like an adult.”
“Facebook’s dual-class share structure is akin to a
dictatorship”: Calstrs portfolio manager in the FT
7th Jan
2016
10th May
2018

7th Jan
2016
30th May
2019
Shareholders challenge Facebook and Zuckerberg
at AGM ….and leave empty handed
8 shareholder proposals, majoring on limiting Zuckerberg’s power, are
rejected. All it took was for Zuckerberg to vote them down.

7th Jan
2016
14th Nov
2018
“Delay, Deny and Deflect”: NYT investigation finds
this is how Facebook’s leadership reacts to crises
50 past & present FB staff & congressional players are interviewed. Mark
Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg (COO) emerge guilty of systemic failings
on Russian election meddling, data sharing, & hate mongering.

Silicon Valley is often painted as a hotbed of
liberalism, but there is plenty of writing
on the pre-and-pro-authoritarian wall
For example….

Zuckerberg labels Musk’s concerns about AI
and killer robots “pretty irresponsible”
7th Jan
2016
25 Jul
2017
“I have pretty strong opinions on this. I think people who are naysayers
….I just, I don’t understand it.”

Zuckerberg wants Facebook to build
a mind-reading machine
7th Jan
2016
6th Mar
2019
The company has been researching a “promising” brain-computer
interface, he tells a Harvard audience.
“Even as he
wrestles with the
harms Facebook
has wrought, he is
busy dreaming up
new ones.”
Noam Cohen,
Wired

US start up Anduril tests AI surveillance tech on the
Mexico border that acts as a virtual border wall
7th Jan
2016
11th Jun
2018
They use tower-mounted sensors to monitor anyone within 2 miles.
Customs say they have helped in 55 arrests of unauthorized crossers.

Anduril founder Palmer Luckey, also founder of
Oculus, aims to develop a range of AI military tools
7th Jan
2016
11th Jun
2018
He is a funder of the alt-right and a Trump supporter. Investors include
Peter Thiel, a Silicon Valley billionaire with the same credentials.

JP Morgan used Palantir and their data-mining in
secret surveillance of employees
7th Jan
2016
19th Apr
2018
19th April 2018
Palantir has also worked for Cambridge Analytica, the CIA, etc etc.
Founder Peter Thiel is on the board of Facebook. A Trump funder, he has
said “I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible.”

7th Jan
2016
5th July
2018
“How do I maintain authority over my security force after the (collapse)
event?”: a typical question from super-rich clients in Q&A about their
“how to escape” vision of the future …and how to use tech to execute it.
“Survival of the Richest: The Wealthy Are Plotting
To Leave Us Behind”: tech author Douglas Rushkoff

China points the way today to the kind of society that
the surviving liberal democracies risk descending into….

7th Jan
2016
28th Jul
2017
The biggest facial recognition system in the world
is rolling out in China ….and the most invasive use
Officials aim to enroll every Chinese citizen into a nationwide database by 2020.
A recently pioneered social credit system aims to give every citizen a rating.

7th Jan
2016
8th Jul
2018
“China is reversing the commonly held vision of technology as a great
democratizer, bringing people more freedom and connecting them.”
“Inside China’s Dystopian Dreams: A.I., Shame and
Lots of Cameras”
c. 200 million of
these nationwide

Beijing “is committing some of the most extensive, and neglected,
human-rights violations in the world” against Muslim Uighurs.
“China has turned Xinjiang into a police state
like no other”
7th Jan
2016
31st May
2018
Future Today

7th Jan
2016
23rd Jul
2017
Chinese companies are helping police develop AI
intending to identify criminals before they act
Li Meng, vice-minister of science and technology: If we use AI, “we can know
beforehand . . . who might be a terrorist, who might do something bad.”

10 years ago China spent $35 bn on defence. Now $230 bn.
Silicon Valley started out on DoD largesse.
People’s Liberation Army and corporate China
“draw ever closer” as military budget rises: FT
7th Jan
2016
6th Jun
2018

And who is bankrolled this armour-plating of dictatorship?
Many western financial institutions.
“World's Biggest AI Startup Raises $1.2 Billion in
Mere Months”: Bloomberg on Sense Time Group
7th Jan
2016
31st May
2018
Future Today

7th Jan
2016
21st Nov
2018
“Beijing to Judge Every Resident Based on Behavior
by End of 2020”
Those deemed untrustworthy will be “unable to move even a single
step,” according to the plan published on the city government’s website.
Meeting of the Beijing
Municipal City Peoples’
government

“China’s system of internet censorship is not for
internal consumption only but is being exported”
7th Jan
2016
12th Mar
2019
“China has been mounting a concerted
attack on freedom of speech online for
over two decades.”
“The history of US tech companies in
China means that one cannot take the
“western liberator” model for granted,
Griffiths argues. Companies’ profit
motive and desire to stay on the right
side of the Communist party has
conflicted with the need to protect
users.”
Review by FT Beijing correspondent
Yuan Yang

And who among democratic leaders is speaking out, or
at least saying “you have your system, we have ours”….

Donald Trump praises Xi Jinping's President-for-life
power grab & says….
7th Jan
2016
4th Mar
2018
“Dictators are always arrogant. It’s a disaster for political civilization.”
Qiao Mu, exiled Chinese journalism professor.

And in the UK, one of the oldest democracies
in the world?

7th Jan
2016
28th Dec
2018
A Prime Minister put in power by a tiny fraction of voters, using tactics
made possible by lack of a clear Constitution, takes Britain to the brink.
Johnson plans to suspend Parliament to force no-
deal Brexit through, and the Queen acquiesces

Johnson will not be without support, and the more
so with time as technology continues to evolve fast
and the autocracy-tolerant grow in numbers
….if he is permitted to play out his power grab

7th Jan
2016
8th Apr
2019
When people were asked whether “Britain needs a strong ruler willing
to break the rules”, 54% agreed and only 23% said no.
Anti-democratic sentiment is growing fast in the
UK, Hansard’s annual audit shows

7th Jan
2016
28th Aug
2018
After an 18 month deep dive, the DCMS select committee has trenchant
criticisms, a list of recommendations ….and further questions.
MPs publish a withering verdict on Facebook, Cam.
Analytica, Russia …& infer Brexit vote may be illegal
Damian Collins MP
Chair, Digital, Culture, Media
and Sport select committee

Will campaign finance or Russian collusion topple
Trump? “Here, apparently, we care about neither”
7th Jan
2016
23rd Dec
2018
“The wider questions about the multiple crimes and alleged crimes –
nine serious or criminal investigations now in all – committed during the
referendum remain a side show.”

7th Jan
2016
28th Dec
2018
He donated nearly £900,000 to Leave campaigns,
and wants Johnson to replace May.
Crispin Odey boasts that each day of Brexit-related
political crisis is a “good day” for his hedge fund

After being alerted that
Tommy Robinson was
using Facebook as
though he was a charity,
FB removed the donate
button.
In all my reading about
this company, I have yet
to encounter an example
of them doing anything
pro-social proactively.
7th Jan
2016
7th Dec
2018
A British fascist activist raises “several hundred
thousands pounds ” online incl. via a Facebook page
A Guardian investigation finds that the anti-Muslim hatemonger is
financially and logistically supported by far-right US and Australian think
tanks, US tech billionaire Robert Shillman, and hundreds of Russian
trolls. Robinson has >1 million Facebook followers.

7th Jan
2016
3rd Dec
2018
Silicon Valley is getting excited about British police
getting excited about using AI to predict crime
Most efforts so far have focused on forecasting where and when crime
will happen, but British police seek to predict who will perpetrate it.
West Midlands Police aim to produce a prototype by March 2019.

7th Jan
2016
6th Feb
2019
First UK police force uses an algorithm to predict
the future behaviour of an individual
Durham Constabulary
aims to predict
likelihood of offenders
re-offending, working
with Cambridge
University scientists
using 5 years of data.

Top Ten actions to head off a future run by autocrats
in the states that are currently democracies
1. Elect true democrats, while there is still time
2. Address the inequality that helps drive the populism
3. Reform the flaws that are being exploited in current electoral systems
4. Investigate properly breakages of electoral law, prosecute those in
breach, and jail them if found guilty
5. Ban the stoking of racist hate by media of all kinds
6. Regulate tech so that it is applied for social good, using the Asilomar
Principles as a start, including the removal of Big Tech’s vast power
7. Regulate capital markets so that investors cannot profit from social
erosion and chaos, and future financial crashes are less likely
8. Work for common security based on a rules-based international order,
starting with the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
9. Target aid to build healthy national economies, beyond poverty-
alleviation measures in the SDGs, in order to cut the drivers of migration
10. …..Get a move on

How liberal democracy can die ....on our watch: A pictures-and-charts summary for-the-busy

Empfohlen

Empfohlen

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Was ist angesagt? (6)

Ähnlich wie How liberal democracy can die ....on our watch: A pictures-and-charts summary for-the-busy

Ähnlich wie How liberal democracy can die ....on our watch: A pictures-and-charts summary for-the-busy (20)

Mehr von Jeremy Leggett

Mehr von Jeremy Leggett (20)

Kürzlich hochgeladen

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)

How liberal democracy can die ....on our watch: A pictures-and-charts summary for-the-busy

Hinweis der Redaktion