My presentation at Cambridge University on 5th March. In it I describe an idea for a new people-power company to help lead the charge to a zero-carbon world by decarbonising, recarbonising, and pressuring foot draggers: ZeroCarbon Revolution. A video of the talk can be found at https://climateseries.com/
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A search for hope on the climate front lines in 2020
1. A Search For Hope
On the Climate
Front Lines
in 2020
Cambridge Climate
Lecture Series
Jeremy Leggett
5th March 2020
2013 – 2015 ….the road to Paris1989 – 1997 …the road to Kyoto
3. How to Create Hope in Hell
Whither hope in hell?
”Hope in Hell”: Title of Jonathon Porritt’s forthcoming book
4. 8th Jan 2019
How best to campaign for hope when just 4.5% of the global population live in a “full
democracy”, and the Economist Intelligence Unit expects its Democracy Index to keep falling?
5. 7th Jan
2016
5th Apr
2019
Norway unlocks investments by state pension fund
in unlisted renewables
5th April 2019: Norway’s Finance Minister Siv
Jensen, having just declared that the Oil Fund
will no longer invest in pure-play oil and gas
companies, announces that henceforth it will
invest in unlisted renewables companies
My personal choice is direct action in the market: the creation of vehicles that can attract the
capital already beginning to be diverted from the fossil-fuel incumbency
6. With this personal choice in mind, please allow me
to use this talk to crowdsource some wisdom
7. 1.5˚C
0˚C
2˚C
4˚C
Paris Agreement target (to keep below)
Paris Agreement aspiration (to keep below)
3.3˚C
3.3˚C
4.4˚C
Current
policies
3.0˚C
2.4˚C
3.8˚C
Pledges
& targets
Source:
The Paris Agreement of December 2015
was signed by 195 governments, and
quickly ratified by enough of them to
come into force in November 2016.
June 2019
What a difference a degree makes
8. Above 1˚C risks to humans and ecosystems from changes in land-based processes soar
Globalmeansurfacetemperaturechange˚C
relativetopre-industrialtime1850-1900
Yellow is moderate risk.. Red is high risk.. Purple is very high risk..
Levels of IPCC confidence in assessments: H is high, M is moderate, L is low.
2006
- 2015
Dryland
water
scarcity
Soil
erosion
Vegetation
loss
Wildfire
damage
ipcc
Climate
Change
and Land
We are near 1˚C already
Permafrost
degradation
Tropical
crop yield
decline
Food supply
instabilities
“Risks, including cascading risks, are projected to become increasingly severe”
8th Aug
2019
9. Lessons and Hope
From the Front Lines
Cambridge Climate
Lecture Series
Jeremy Leggett
5 March 2020
2013 - 2015
3rd Feb 2020
˚C average global temperature upon doubling CO2
“Climate Models Are Running Red Hot, and Scientists Don’t Know Why”
“The simulators used to forecast warming have suddenly started giving us less time.”
1.5˚C
11. Fossil fuels
CarbonsourcesCarbonsinks
Land-use change
Oceans
Land
Atmosphere
1954 2018….the year I was born
Source: Global Carbon Project
We know exactly what the solution is
2018
2030 2050
A common
target
(e.g. UK)
Science-
based
target
…Hope …Too
late
The science tells us that hope lives
in a zero carbon world by 2030
….and maybe by 2040
but not by 2050
12. Fossil fuels
CarbonsourcesCarbonsinks
Land-use change
Oceans
Land
Atmosphere
1954 2018….the year I was born
Source: Global Carbon Project
Three vital tasks leap out at us
2018
2030 2050
A common
target
(e.g. UK)
Science-
based
target
…Hope …Too
late
1. Decarbonising
economies
2. Recarbonising
land use
3. Pressuring
those who persist
with carbon emissions
13. So why not create a vehicle to attack all three tasks, at the same time, under one roof.
A company that is a home for hope: that attracts a great many worried people to invest in it.
And why not call it what it needs to be part of: ZeroCarbon Revolution.
14. Task 1: Decarbonization. Let us accelerate this with arguably the two most potent tools available:
the potential for solar energy and batteries to disrupt the fossil-fuel incumbency….
Solarcentury installation on a Sainsbury store
22 square metres of solar PV typically displaces
a tonne of carbon dioxide in the UK
15. Makar homes, Culcairn
….and timber-frame building’s potential for disrupting
the concrete-bricks-and-steel construction incumbency
A cubic metre of wood typically locks up
a tonne of carbon dioxide
16. Task 2: Recarbonization. Let us accelerate this with a positive balance of forest harvesting
plus extensive growing and rewilding of mixed woodlands and peatlands
17. Task 3: Pressure. Let us create a company that actively confronts those who persist in their
suicidal defence of fossil fuels, both in the markets and in society
Solarcentury staff protest solar sabotage by a government stacked with oil-
industry secondees prior to a victory in the High Court. If a company
majority-owned by venture capital firms can do this, just imagine what a
company owned by large numbers of people might be able to do.
Even as concerns about global warming grow,
energy firms are planning to increase
fossil-fuel production
18. My experience as a climate-campaigning entrepreneur fills me with hope
for all three planned lines of attack. Let me explain why.
A Solarcentury team at one of our solar farms
19. 1. Decarbonization: I have watched Solarcentury, an international solar company I founded
22 years ago, ride the wave of solar PV’s amazing exponential global growth.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0.1
1
10
100
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
GlobalcapacityGW
PVmoduleprice$/W Solar PV price and installed capacity, 1976-2019
Global installed capacity GW PV module price $/W (2018 real)
SolarPVmoduleprice$/W(log)
100
10
1
0.1
Solarcentury installed capacity
doubles >11x 2000 – 2019 to 1GW
SolarPVglobalinstalledcapacityGW
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Global installed capacity doubles >8x
2000 – 2019 to 600 GW1976
1980
1990
2000
2010
2019
1985
1995
2005
2015
20. Solar photovoltaics (PV) is now the fastest growing and least expensive
energy source in most national markets
In ZeroCarbon Revolution, I and some of my solar-industry compadres will continue that ride,
applying lessons we have learned, alone and with partners.
21. 1. More decarbonization: Makar is a timber-frame construction company based in Inverness
with a fast-growing order book. It reminds me of Solarcentury in its early ascent.
Alliance for Sustainable Building Products 2020:
• New Build Award overall winner
• Product Innovation Award overall winner
22. Typical Makar homes
This terrific company is ZeroCarbon Revolution’s first partnership ….already underway
(Declaration of interest: I have invested in it)
23. Typical interiors of Makar homes
Together we intend to light up the Green New Deal with beyond-zero-carbon newbuild and
energy-efficient retrofits, maximizing the provision of local jobs and use of local materials.
24. In the Bunloit Western Sector
2. Recarbonization: I have bought a plot of forest and peatland in Scotland and heard visiting
ecology experts enthusing about its potential for sucking carbon out of the atmosphere
25. In the southern sector
The varied terrain of Bunloit is perfect for growing a holistic carbon sink by harvesting timber
(some), planting and regenerating new mixed woodland, restoring peatlands, and rewilding
26. 3. Plant and restore
new woodland & peatland
£ carbon credit income
£ forestry products income
9. Rewild
the land
4. Harvest
forestry products
8. Donate
% of profit to help Africa
cut carbon emissions & develop
(via SolarAid and other NGOs)
£ eco-building income
2. Nurture
existing trees and soils
6. Sequester
CO2
5. Build
offsite-constructed timber frame
beyond zero carbon homes
7. Reinvest
after investor returns
10. Repeat
On other sites
1. Buy
The land
….in volume
as near as
possible
ZeroCarbon Revolution will buy such plots on a much bigger scale, and maximize their potential
as holistic carbon-sink exemplars in a modular, cyclical, and highly collaborative process
27. 3. Pressuring: I have seen how opportunities to confront the carbonistas ….and help
others do so…. can enrich a company’s culture and decrease team turnover
28. 28Confidential
SolarAid’s wholly
owned non-profit
retail brand
More than £1 million since start in 2007,
leveraged to >£18 million
from other donors
5% of annual profits to a charity of our own design
that aims to catalyse solar lighting markets in Africa
In Zero Carbon Revolution we will copy the Solarcentury / SolarAid model
….only with 10% of profits, for a wider range of climate and development causes
29. I have a three-stage plan for making ZeroCarbon Revolution work. First, we will kick off with
people-power finance: crowdfunded equity and debt. That’s where people who care come in.
Some of the team at Solarcentury
30. Second, we grow fast while shaping a company able to rise from the ruins being created by
climate criminality yet be a place where Greta Thunberg and her friends might want to work.
31. “The long-term health of
free-enterprise capitalism
will depend on delivering
profit with purpose.”
“ ….At times it is necessary
to reform in order to
preserve.”
Lionel Barber, then FT Editor
16th September 2019
In a world where even the FT believes that the modern form of capitalism is broken, we must be
sure to create a company that recognizes and avoids the systemic failures
32. In the third stage, we will aim to attract investment at scale from the most progressive pension
funds. If we can attract their vast resources, we will really be able to move the dial.
33. Initial ideas for the first-stage crowdfunding
HOPE
hence no upper limit set for the crowdfunding
…the more we raise the faster we can (try to) go
34. Initial ideas for the first-stage crowdfunding
• £22 million target
• Every investment comprises 20% equity to allow upside potential, and 80% debt, at
a rate higher than the banks’ but not by much, to give ZCR a low cost of capital
• Minimum investment £2,200 to keep transaction costs manageable (but pooled
investments under one named responsible party are fine)
• Maximum investment £2.2 million, or not more than 10% ownership of equity if we
overshoot the target (and that includes the founders)
• First exit opportunity will be the second fundraising, targeting pension funds, within
3 years at most (….or shareholders can choose to stay in)
• Those excluded: companies the board does not wish to work with (venture capital
firms, fossil-fuel interests, climate-policy foot-draggers of all kinds); individuals the
board does not wish to work with (Jeremy Clarkson, Rupert Murdoch etc etc)
35. …to fairly represent the
interests of investors, team,
and all communities involved
…. to be able to move as fast
as we will need to, to take the
calculated risks we will need
to, yet to be in the vanguard
of a capitalism reformed for
survival
….to manage the transition
from a fast start company to a
people-power company fit for
the 21st century
Initial ideas for the first-stage governance
36. Initial ideas for the first-stage governance
• Exec team and board are appointed on a contingent basis, depending on success of
crowdfunding ….with their readiness to serve being part of the proposition
• 9 directors, one person one vote
• Chair (JL)
• CEO, CFO, Legal Counsel / Company Secretary, 1 staff member elected by team
• 4 to represent communities (picked from investors, including one youth representative)
• Both board and team must be 50% female
• The transition process (from fast-start model to system-change model: an exemplar of a
company fit-for-purpose in the 21st century): 5 years
• Led by the director elected from the team and the four representing the communities
• Year 1 consultation / Year 2 Draw up the plan / Year 3 Execution begins / completed by
end Year 5
• Directors serve for 3 years. They can be re-elected or replaced by shareholder equity-
percentage-based vote at the AGM
37. Finally, another route to effective pressure, but probably too risky for ZCR at this stage:
Shorting to undermine the often already vulnerable stock of carbon-fuel companies
9th July 2019
38. As chair of the financial think-tank Carbon Tracker (2011-18), I watched fossil-fuel companies
grow ever more exposed to climate policies stranding the coal, oil and gas they call assets.
Yet many of them still plough on, disregarding all warning signs.
31st January 2020
39. What is the best
governance structure?
…to fairly represent the
interests of investors, team,
and all communities
impacted
…. to be able to move as fast
as we will need to, to take
the calculated risks we will
need to, yet to be in the
vanguard of a capitalism
reformed for survival
Successful shorting strategies
could fuel a green growth-and-
profit phenomenon with the
potential for major global
traction. Whereas poor picks
could well lead to substantial
losses.
Hence this route to pressure is
best left to those with high
tolerance of risk.
I and my Carbon Tracker colleagues know the pioneers with the best plans for shorting the foot-
draggers on climate. Some investors in ZCR may wish to join me in a bid to to profit from the
blindness of the worst offenders in oil and gas - for the sake of our holistic mission
40. I extend an open invitation to be part of the adventure in hope
that is Zero Carbon Revolution
I welcome your questions, comments and suggestions
Target launch date for the campaign:
4th July 2020
42. -100
Source: Centre for Alternative Technology report, 29th Nov. 2019
Capture
From this
in 2017….
0
100
200
300
400
500
GHGemissions(MtCO2e)
….to this
by 2030
ZCB in summary
• 91% emissions reductions, almost half a billion
tonnes of CO2 equivalent
• 62% increase in annual emissions capture in
land use: 47.8 MtCO2 per year, up from 29.4
MtCO2 captured in 2017
Note that this capture is in fast declining sinks and still
only brings the UK up to 24% of land cover forested,
compared to the current EU average of 37%.
The feasibility of speed: the CAT Zero Carbon Britain study as an example
43. Source: CAT report, 29th Nov. 2019
Urban
Grassland for livestock Food for
livestock
Food for usMixed grasses
Short
rotation
coppice
Short rotation
forestry Harvested forest
Unharvested forest
Restored
peatland
Unmanaged / conserved
From this land use in 2017…. ….to this land use by 2030
The feasibility of speed: the CAT Zero Carbon Britain study as an example
44. A global example: LUT’s global energy simulation stays below the 1.5˚C ceiling by producing
zero-GHG energy from power, heat, transport and desalination sectors before 2050
Source: Lapeenranta University of Technology / Energy Watch
12th April 2019
€54 MWh
(excl. externalities)
€53 MWh
7.2 billion people
9.7 bn people
63,400
GW PV
19%
78,000 GW total renewables capacity • A 100% renewable global
energy system - modelled
hourly with real weather data
for the first time – is lower
cost than a fossil-based system
• It uses real economics, off-the-
shelf technologies, and
assumes no innovation
• Solar PV sums to 69% by 2050
• Renewables meet >50% global
energy demand by 2030
• Global energy emissions are
• halved by 2030
45. 7th Jan
2016
9th Sep
2019
And “as costs fall, so new tipping points will be reached”
including in dispatchable renewables
A “trillion dollar energy windfall” is available today in solar & wind cheaper than gas & coal
(never mind the zero carbon implications)
This from Carbon Tracker in a September 2019 report: “The challenge is to reap this harvest”
46. Source: UK Climate Change Committee
Across the bioeconomy, timber frame building offers the single biggest route to
emissions reductions ….within the single biggest carbon-emitting sector
Timber frame building displacing masonry - 2018
