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FINANCIAL FUTURES 2022



The FUTURE of Consumer
to Business Payment




    Prepared by
    Eric Blais
    Jen Chow
    Jessica Mills
    Richard Norman

    December 1, 2011
Table of Contents                           0
     1 Financial Futures 2022 .............................................................................................................. 1
     2 Horizon Scanning ....................................................................................................................... 6
                        Social trends ................................................................................................................... 7
                        Technological trends ....................................................................................................... 7
                        Economic trends ............................................................................................................. 8
                        Ecological trends ............................................................................................................. 8
                        Political trends ................................................................................................................. 8
                        Values trends .................................................................................................................. 8



     3 Drivers and Critical Uncertainties............................................................................................. 9
     4 Scenarios .................................................................................................................................. 12
                        United States of Apple .................................................................................................. 15
                        Rise of the Brand .......................................................................................................... 18
                        Multiple Choice World ................................................................................................... 21
                        Powered by Google ...................................................................................................... 24



     5 Strategic options ...................................................................................................................... 28
     6 Bios ............................................................................................................................................ 42
     7 Appendix ................................................................................................................................... 45




financial futures                                             blais, chow, mills, norman                                                                       i
Financial
                    Futures 2022                  1
financial futures    blais, chow, mills, norman   1
1             Financial Futures 2022

Statement of the Project                                         will have near-frequency communication capabilities
                                                                 (Yadav, 2011), enabling smartphones to serve as both
This is a proactive foresight initiative outlining possible      wallets and payment devices. Dial-up internet will be
futures for the financial and banking landscape in               eclipsed by wireless networks, including emerging 4G
Canada for the year 2022. The data and research is               technology.



Overview
part of a graduate studies initiative undertaken in the
fall of 2011.                                                    New technologies and innovations have been coming
                                                                 to market almost hourly in this rapidly- changing
                                                                 environment. In order to keep pace, telecommunications
                                                                 companies are evolving their services and expanding
On New Year’s Eve, as the clock struck midnight and              into new markets, while banking entities are working to
the calendar rolled forward to 2000, the world waited            facilitate secure financial transactions across multiple
with bated breath. What the technology industry had              platforms. Privacy laws in Canada have become
neglected to account for was this significant change             some of the most protective in the world as our lives
in its design: there were decades with the prefix of 19,         have increasingly migrated online. It is critical for these
but somehow there was never a plan for the inevitable            industries to consider looking beyond the rapid cycles
change to accommodate the new millennium. There                  of daily or quarterly change and to look to the horizon
were concerns of system meltdowns, security                      and beyond for signals and indicators of potential
breaches and nuclear and economic disasters. Task                futures and the strategic implications for business.
forces were created, plans executed and anticipated
                                                                 It is in this constant state of flux that we have chosen
hysteria reported by the media. In the end, everything
                                                                 to explore the potential futures for the financial industry
was fine and the new millennium marched on.
                                                                 in 2022. Specifically, within the domain of the financial
It has been ten years since the Y2K panic. Since                 sector, we have chosen to focus on the system that
then, landlines gave way to cellphones and now to                enables consumer-to-business payments.
smartphones, growing approximately 50% from March
2010 to March 2011 (CBC News, 2011), with 32.8%
market penetration in Canada (comScore, 2011). It is
anticipated that within two years, 20% of all phones




financial futures                                blais, chow, mills, norman                                             2
Financial Futures 2022               1
Research Question
After refining the scope for this foresight study and before choosing a specific stakeholder lens to adopt, we
decided to explore this research question:

“For our key stakeholder, what is the future of consumer-to-business payment in 2022?”


Key Stakeholder Profile
The stakeholder perspective we adopted was that of
a senior leadership team with operational control of
a national bank in Canada with international reach.
This bank has a tradition of being risk- averse, late
adopters and profit-driven. This bank offers B2B and
C2B financial services to help facilitate B2B and C2B
transactions.

Additional stakeholders and influencers considered
throughout our process:

•	   financial institutions
•	   government
•	   customers/end-users
•	   telephone companies/network infrastructure
     providers
•	   industry (retailers, services, manufacturers, etc.)
•	   security boards
•	   standards boards/regulatory groups
•	   lobbyist groups
•	   international funding agencies (IMF, WTO, G20,
     etc.)




financial futures                               blais, chow, mills, norman                                       3
Financial Futures 2022              1
  Financial System
  When considering futures within the financial sector, there are many components and relationships to
  examine. To define our project scope, concept and systems maps were created in order to identify and
  highlight tensions and challenges affecting multiple stakeholders, including our key stakeholder.

  Following is an exploratory concept map we created to capture some key stakeholders and system
  components within the financial sector.




financial futures                        blais, chow, mills, norman                                      4
Financial Futures 2022                    1
  The payment system below represents a balancing feedback loop with businesses paying employees, who
  in turn, pay for products and services. At the centre of this systems map is a myriad of transaction types,
  currencies and regulatory bodies facilitating consumer-to-business transactions. This part of the systems
  map will be ripe for innovation and regulatory change over the next 10 years as technological innovation and
  consumer demand continue to grow.




  Note: we considered businesses to be entities that receive payments and employ workers (including government
  entities, NGOs and non-profits).

  Our systems map offers a focused view of the various interactions that take place during a transaction.
  Incremental steps indicate opportunities for innovation and system streamlining. Once again, elements of
  this system will evolve with changes in regulations, consumer demand and technological development.




financial futures                            blais, chow, mills, norman                                          5
Horizon Scanning                   2
financial futures   blais, chow, mills, norman   6
2            Horizon Scanning

One of the most comprehensive and critical                      networks for financial support as opposed to relying
components of foresighting and scenario-building                on institution-based lending systems.
is trend identification and analysis. Trends reflect a
pattern of change in data impacting a substantial               Social (Media) Unrest: All For One, One
number of people over a period of time.                         For All…Sort of
For this initiative, trends were identified and mapped          The flavour of recent social uprisings parallels other
using the STEEP+V framework, which encourages a                 emerging ideas: use of social media technology to
comprehensive scan of trends across the domains                 organize, shifting individual values, opportunism and
of Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental               self-interest, all in the face of austerity measures.
and Values. To ensure a thorough horizon scan and a
                                                                Everyone Manage Your Money
360-degree view, we sought out emergent trends in
each of the STEEP+V categories.                                 Mobile tools encouraging more financial
                                                                management to help manage budgets and facilitate



                                                                Technological Trends
The sixteen trends identified for this initiative               transactions.
are clustered by STEEP+V theme below, and
the complete trends package is included in the



Social Trends
Appendix.

                                                                Cashless Transactions Any Time
                                                                Anywhere
Dancing Cheque to Cheque                                        Proliferation of ways to pay on the go, around the
                                                                clock.
Each year, fewer Canadians save money for their
future. Some citizens are only one pay cheque away              Smartphone as Personalized Branch
from bankruptcy.                                                Smartphones are increasingly capable of branch
Friend Lend a Friend                                            services.

Emerging lending models that rely on individual




financial futures                               blais, chow, mills, norman                                           7
Horizon Scanning                 2
Mobi-Me-Money                                                   All In All There’s Another Bric In The….
Financial transactions between payee and payer                  The rise of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) as
are migrating from paper transactions of cash and               economic powers is undeniable, yet there is reason
cheques to tech-based, online and mobile service                to wonder whether Russia’s economic and political
networks, creating less dependency on banking                   stability equals that of the other three nations. It begs
services.                                                       the question: Is there another nation set to take over
                                                                its position as an emerging economic power?
Get Your Head into the Clouds
                                                                Paying in Points
Cloud computing, an evolution in computing
architecture, provides flexible and scalable                    Currency, as units of measure for exchange, is
infrastructure, software and hardware management,               becoming increasingly fragmented. Loyalty points
and allows for fluid customer-centric access to                 could become more reliable in the face of the



                                                                Environmental Trends
products and services to support the next generation            unstable Euro and American dollar.
of banking.

Uh Oh, I Think I’ve Virtually Caught
Something
                                                                No’ Mo’ Money Grow
There is an epidemic of cybercrime, which is
coordinated and sophisticatedly driven by highly                The resources to support capitalist benchmarks of



                                                                Political trends
coordinated teams. It is costing billions from theft,           year over year growth are becoming scarcer.
infrastructure and security, and threatens client



Economic Trends
privacy, eroding consumer confidence.

                                                                I owe, I owe
                                                                From home to government, the debt level in Canada
Financial Climate Chaos


                                                                Values Trends
                                                                is increasing exponentially year after year.
The national and financial landscape fluctuates
quickly and erratically. It has become incredibly hard
to forecast financial investments due to the existing
chaotic financial climate.
                                                                Forever in Debt
Symbiosis of Financial Institution and                          Social values regarding debt are changing. Year after
Telco                                                           year, the level of senior Canadians retiring with debt
Credibility of financial institutions will complement           is increasing.
telecommunications networks.




financial futures                               blais, chow, mills, norman                                           8
Drivers
              and Uncertainties                  3
financial futures   blais, chow, mills, norman   9
Drivers
3            and Uncertainties
The underlying forces behind trends are known as drivers. There can be multiple drivers for any given trend and
a given driver can be relevant to multiple trends. It is through the identification of as many drivers as possible
and their consolidation ,based on similar themes, that a robust set of drivers emerge.
Through our analysis of trends relating to the future of C2B payments, we arrived at 12 key drivers (see the
Appendix for an expanded drivers to trends map.)
Once the drivers were identified, they were evaluated on their degree of uncertainty and impact on C2B
payments, using a scale of low, medium and high (L, M, H):



Driver                                                  Uncertainty           Impact

Mergers & acquisitions                                         H                 H
Financial services structure                                   H                 H
Desire for government control                                  H                 H
Globalization                                                  M                 H
Instant gratification                                           L                H
Innovation (for efficiency)                                     L                H
Demand for security (confidence)                                L                H
Network access                                                  L                H
Access to credit                                                L                M
Cost of Living                                                  L                L
Social pressure                                                 L                L
Desire for more knowledge                                       L                L




financial futures                            blais, chow, mills, norman                                        10
Drivers and Uncertainties                     3
Drivers with high uncertainty and importance emerged. Once identified, we articulated what critical uncertainties
to consider (factors with the highest impact and highest uncertainty). These critical uncertainties were then set
at the axes for our future scenarios development tool: the 2x2 matrix.
In this case, the critical uncertainties were the role of high versus low governance, bisected with the centralized
concentration versus fragmentation of financial services. The full list of drivers were then applied across the 2x2
matrix and assigned a value of influence in each quadrant.




financial futures                             blais, chow, mills, norman                                       11
Scenarios       4
financial futures   blais, chow, mills, norman   12
4           Scenarios

“Thinking through [scenario]
stories, and talking in depth about
their implications, brings each
person’s unspoken assumptions
about the future to the surface.
Scenarios are thus the most
powerful vehicles I know for
challenging our ‘mental models’
about the world and lifting the
‘blinders’ that limit our creativity
and resourcefulness.”
— Peter Schwartz

The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in
an Uncertain World




financial futures                          blais, chow, mills, norman   13
Scenarios
                                                       4




financial futures   blais, chow, mills, norman           14
Scenarios     4
United States of Apple
High Governance
Centralized Financial Services


In 2015, Apple bailed out the U.S. government and
eradicated their debt load. Their help had come
just in the nick of time. Both the government and
major banks were facing bankruptcy. Incidents of
social upraising, violence and chaos were on the
rise. It seemed like a civil war was inevitable. Apple’s
help had come at a price. Today, 2021, Apple now
owned majority shares in the U.S. government (now
a publicly-traded company) and in all three remaining
financial institutions.

The internet is alive and well but for reasons of
national security, iHomeland instituted a policy that          his aging parents, divorced sister and teenage niece.
all financial transactions and government-related              This job had saved his life. He was retrained by his
information reside on one single proprietary, secure           new employer, paid a good salary and even given a
network. The iMe, a paper-thin, malleable personal             mortgage for his new condo. Life was good! When
communication device, is introduced to access this             the iMe was first introduced, American citizens often
secure network for all transactions and is offered at          carried two personal communication mobile devices.
no-charge to all Americans. The device’s hardware              In time, their trust in the government returned, they
and access to the network was subsidized by the                adopted the tools and features the device offered
Apple government and taxpayer money. The model                 and, in an attempt to save money, the majority kept
is similar to the old cellphone model whereby the              the iMe and got rid of their old smartphone. Paper
hardware was free, but the service and transactions            currency still abounded but its popularity quickly
came at a small cost. This pay-per- transaction                declined.
and service model was designed to act much like                Eric walked into the voice-command elevator and
the HST, as a payback system to repay Apple’s                  asked to be brought down to the parking garage.
investment.                                                    Oddly, it didn’t move so he decided to try a more
At first, Americans cried foul. They believed that this        manual approach. He grabbed his iME out of is
was the beginning of George Orwell’s 1984: the                 pocket and was greeted with the device’s customary
control and influence of an oligopoly. But the reverse         smiling face. He tapped the screen and the first
happened, peace and prosperity returned to the                 page of the app’s icons appeared. He touched the
land of milk and honey. The job market exploded                magnifying glass (which reminded him of his old
especially at Apple. Eric, 43, had been unemployed             Android phone — may Google rest in peace). He
for over two years and was forced to move in with              typed an “E” and an “L” in the text box and the




financial futures                              blais, chow, mills, norman                                       15
Scenarios      4
United States of Apple                                                                                             [2]

elevator icon appeared. He tapped it but for some               get to the bottom of this, he contacted a colleague
reason it just wouldn’t launch. He slid his hand over           at iNews to discuss. Instead of communicating over
the elevator’s side panel, which activated the manual           a device, she asked to meet Eric at their favourite
display. He pressed “P” for parking, the doors closed           café. Security is very tight in this new world, and
and the elevator started to move.                               monitoring the networks is now commonplace.
                                                                Eric got into his iCar to drive away, but just like the
He was quite bothered because his daily navigation
                                                                elevator, it wouldn’t start so he opted to take the
of the world and routines were dependent on
                                                                new iTrain instead. He tried to use his iMe to see
synchronicity between voice-command, facial
                                                                when the next train would arrive but his device was
recognition and his iMe device. This was not normal
                                                                once again not working properly or connecting to the
behavior and he was concerned about what was
                                                                network.
happening. Was this a result of his discoveries this
morning? Was he being shut out of the system as a               He asked those around him if they were experiencing
result? His heart raced; surely, he was wrong.                  similar problems with their devices. The man beside
                                                                him unplugged the earbuds from his own device
When he walked into the office that morning, he
                                                                to let Eric know that the network was working for
noticed fluctuations in the iCloud. He tried to stabilize
                                                                him. The woman beside him confirmed the same.
them using his iPad but nothing seemed to work.
                                                                As the train arrived, he tried to pay the fare with his
He made his way to the server farm and found the
                                                                iME but his device had gone blank! He made his
defective box. He tried to connect wirelessly but
                                                                way to the nearest iTM and placed his finger on
no luck. So he pulled out a cable the diameter of a
                                                                the display for a quick fingerprint scan. The virtual
string and magnetically connected it from his tablet
                                                                assistant said: “We’re sorry, this fingerprint does not
to the box.
                                                                match any accounts on the iCloud.Please visit our
He found a collection of fragmented files and as                nearest booth at the mall to speak to a customer
he tried to clean them, a string of text appeared. It           service representative.” The train arrived. “I’m sorry,”
seemed to be financial transactions for extremely               said the iTrain attendant. “You can’t board without
large sums. He was about to close the file when                 paying.” He had no money, no proof of identity, no
a name caught his eye. Why did that name sound                  communication tool, and he was stranded an hour
so familiar? Through his search concierge service               away from the city, with no ability to pay through the
he conducted a quick iWeb scan. It revealed that                only system that existed for him.
the names on the screen were U.N. ambassadors
                                                                What was he going to do?
that favoured the integration of corporations within
the United Nations. Then it dawned on him that
perhaps Apple was trying to buy their way into the
U.N. It made sense, as it would be an incredibly
aggressive but strategic move to protect the U.S.
from the increasing dominance of Eurasia, while
supporting Apple’s own growth demands. To help




financial futures                               blais, chow, mills, norman                                         16
Scenarios         4
United States of Apple                                                                                                   [3]

Primary Drivers
Globalization                                                 Detailed Driver Placement
To amalgamate through acquisitions in order to
remain internationally profitable, productive and
competitive.

Security
To protect both personal and financial information
against fraud, theft or personal harm.

Network Access
To provide ubiquitous communication and payment
access across the United States.




                                                               Diagram shows relative strength of primary, secondary and neutral
                                                               drivers within 2x2 matrix. The United States of Apple quadrant is
                                                               governed by High Governance (y-axis) and Centralized Financial
                                                               Services (x-axis).




financial futures                             blais, chow, mills, norman                                                  17
Scenarios      4
Rise of the Brand
High governance
De-centralized Financial Services


The year is 2022 and the multinational corporations
have globalized the world, permeating all corners
of the earth through branded networks. Some are
single, massive global brands, others are families of
affiliated brands. Branded experiences have become
so fluid that geographical borders are now irrelevant.
The only discernable borders are those where
families of brands have several affiliates dispersed
across different regions.
Each brand offers its own loyalty program, catering
to the diverse lifestyles and financial constraints
in the marketplace, where the cost of living has               If she were at Starbucks, things would have been
become a heavy influencer of consumer decisions.               different. That is a brand that provides customers
The obsession with security, network access and                with a seamless experience across all markets
connectivity has led to an obsolescence of personal            because of its strength and influence. Life was
privacy. “Thank you for flying with Virgin. Please             easier when she was aligned with Starbucks. Her
enjoy your stay in Hong Kong,” was broadcast over              tall refresh with honey or even a tall chai latte could
the speaker system. Leaving the plane, Jen made                be enjoyed anywhere, anytime in Toronto or here
her way to the first tea shop that had a personalized          in Hong Kong. Such is the life of a PhD student
ad directed at her “Jen, come on over to have your             attending a design conference on a budget. At least
favourite tea, just the way you like it in Toronto.”           Fresh Express is mindful enough to provide service
                                                               in English, knowing that she was from Canada. She
“Welcome to Fresh Express, Jen. We’re happy to
                                                               had also opted into the “defaults” program to get
serve you today as a Tim Horton’s affiliate. Would
                                                               the best in personalized service, though these days,
you like to have a medium mint tea with three sugars
                                                               brands made it pretty hard to opt out of that. Privacy
today? It’s just like your usual at Tim’s,” said the
                                                               was a thing of the past, it was 2021 after all.
holographic server. She agreed to the tea. However,
the drink she received, while it tasted the same,              Only a few years ago, Starbucks had tried to offer
was in a different cup than she was accustomed                 her a hotly sought-after Level 2 Elite status in an
to and the portion was smaller. Brand and product              attempt to retain her in their program. As much as
consistency was pretty close, but not exact. She               she had wanted to stay, going back to school meant
figured it had to do with portions being smaller in            she simply couldn’t pass up the value promotion
Asia and local culture still having a minor influence on       offered by Tim Hortons at the time. Free Tim’s points
brands.                                                        every week was too good an offer. It had been a six-
                                                               month process to enroll in the Starbucks program,



financial futures                              blais, chow, mills, norman                                         18
Scenarios      4
Rise of the Brand                                                                                                 [2]

complete with credit checks after referrals from five           “Verification Laboratory.” She was welcomed at the
friends.                                                        laboratory and asked for a retinal scan, a fingerprint
                                                                and a DNA extraction. All of which were verified and
Sadly, it was beyond her means, so she arduously
                                                                aligned to the information already in their databases.
completed the Starbucks exit paperwork and signed
                                                                Then Jen was asked to place her mobile identity and
up with Tim’s with the wave of her phone over an
                                                                payment device on the charging and syncing station.
identity-scanning terminal. For more sought-after
brands, you had to demonstrate your loyalty. She                Fumbling for her mobile with the cup of tea still in
had considered joining the Loblaws program, with all            hand, Jen pulled it out of her pocket and placed it
its grocery perks, stylish clothing line and numerous           on the screen with a red exclamation mark, face up
banking outlets, but it was a close second choice               on the station. The progress bar inched all the way
since Tim’s was known for its robust global affiliates          to 100% verified and now displayed a large green
program.                                                        checkmark.
“Jen, your tea is ready, hot and fresh. Thanks for              Her identity and connection to the device has
visiting Fresh Express. Your payment has been                   been restored and now all of her core and affiliate
received over the air.”                                         programs were refreshing and updating. Normally,
                                                                at this point she would be released as it was just a
Sipping on her minty beverage, she conceded that
                                                                synching system failure that can sometimes occur
life with Tim Hortons wasn’t so shabby after all. It
                                                                when travelling. But this time, it was a synching error
was Tim Hortons points that flew her across the
                                                                caused by a security breach and personnel were on
Pacific to Hong Kong via their affiliate arrangement
                                                                site intercepting the identity thief.
with Virgin. The network was not nearly as globally
recognized as Starbucks, of course, which had                   Jen peered through the one-way glass into the store
lounges at every major airport and express service              and saw that a woman was being interrogated with
via biometric scans.                                            her mobile phone in hand, bright yellow exclamation
                                                                mark hologram projections flashed from the device.
Tim Hortons offered bare bones identity device
                                                                Her phone was confiscated and she was arrested
verifications. Their network systems definitely weren’t
                                                                and a criminal GPS chip band was strapped to her
as elegant, but they were sufficient. Virgin also
                                                                ankle.
had the best reputation for wireless networks for
international travel, ideal for all the conference travel       The woman was the stewardess who had given
Jen had been doing recently.                                    Jen an extra blanket on the flight. It must have been
                                                                the blanket that had swiped her identity during the
As Jen walked out of the café, an alarm sounded.
                                                                flight. It was the second identity compromise she
“BEEEEEEEEEEP! Jen, your account has been
                                                                had encountered this week. In this world, these
compromised and deactivated. Please proceed to
                                                                incidents were not uncommon, though some
the Fresh Express Identity and Banking Information
                                                                brands’ programs were better than others, but the
Verification Lab immediately.” Startled, Jen walked
                                                                convenience of fewer identity breaches came at a
over to a hallway marked with a sign that read
                                                                price only the elite could afford.




financial futures                               blais, chow, mills, norman                                         19
Scenarios         4
Rise of the Brand                                                                                                       [3]

Primary Drivers
Globalization                                                Detailed Driver Placement
Growth in multi-national mergers, acquisitions,
strategic partnerships among brands.

Cost of living
The disparity between salary and cost of living
dictates what one can afford, despite the aspiration
to keep up with the Jones.

Network access
Reliance on technology to support instant
gratification and seamless connectivity to complex
networks.

Security
The need for trust in a complex network where
personal information is continually shared and
transmitted.
                                                              Diagram shows relative strength of primary, secondary and
                                                              neutral drivers within 2x2 matrix. The Rise of the Brand quadrant
                                                              is governed by High Governance (y-axis) and De-centralized
                                                              Financial Services (x-axis).




financial futures                            blais, chow, mills, norman                                                  20
Scenarios      4
Multiple Choice World
Low governance
De-centralized Financial Services


It is June 2022 in a world of hyper-connectivity and
multiple choice. 6G networks are the norm with over
125% penetration of hand-held, pocket-friendly
devices. The networks for information exchange
are built and maintained through open-source
frameworks that are championed and built on the
direction of spirited socially-networked communities.
Network access has become a human right and
social networks have become more of an identifier
than geographic boundaries.
Personal identities are now formed almost exclusively
on these social networks. The once- powerful
telcos have restructured and are no longer sources
                                                               are the new brands. The previously big product and
of domination; their role is to support community-
                                                               service brands now rely on exchanging their goods
sanctioned initiatives. The more effective their service
                                                               through these highly connected people. These
is to the network infrastructure, the more they get
                                                               digital networks are the new broadcast mediums
to continue providing the service. It is a world of
                                                               and people, through their social networks, are new
abundance but one where balanced reciprocity is the
                                                               channels of communication and distribution.
emerging norm.
                                                               Fewer regulations, coupled with decentralizing
The U.S. banks never fully recovered from the 2008
                                                               across all commercial and social networks, has given
economic downturn, rendering government-backed
                                                               rise to a culture of rapid-cycling innovation, with a
credit difficult to come upon. The quest for credit
                                                               heavy reliance on instant gratification. New networks
is no longer as important as it once was. Not only
                                                               are coming into existence on a daily basis and
has there been a shift in accumulating assets to
                                                               each network is dependent on other networks —
sharing assets, but for those who need credit there
                                                               everything is integrated. What was once six degrees
are now multiple sources of access fragmented
                                                               of separation is now closer to four degrees.
across networks. People can ask for funding-like
support from an aggregate of angel investors. It is            It is in this mesh-networked world that we meet
micro-lending on a broader scale through mutually-             Jessica, originally from Chile. She had recently
beneficial initiatives.                                        applied to be invited into the San Francisco area
                                                               network to facilitate a physical move to the region.
In this socially-networked world, there has been a
                                                               There is a concentration of rapidly adopted social
rise in the power of individuals as brands. These
                                                               networks being established in San Francisco.
Jamie Oliver-esque types reign supreme. Influencers




financial futures                              blais, chow, mills, norman                                        21
Scenarios       4
Multiple Choice World                                                                                               [2]

She can access them from Chile, but she would like              about her day-to-day social equity building and
to be physically closer to that kind of innovation.             bartering. Unfortunately, her telco account gets
Many interactions are done over the network, but                hacked and sends fake transaction requests to
face-to-face meetings are still of value as they have           her entire network. She inavertedly orders three
significant influencing power over networking.                  pairs of shoes, four rugs and three dozen bottles
                                                                of champagne. All of the orders are promptly filled,
Jessica’s application to the San Fran network was
                                                                only for the network to find that she didn’t order
recognized by another member who knew her from
                                                                them and doesn’t have the means to pay for them.
a Chilean network. This individual advocated on her
                                                                As a result, her network is unhappy with her and her
behalf by giving her a high-rating social score. In this
                                                                social equity drops because of the security breach.
world, the types of social networks you are part of
                                                                She is immediately boxed out from several networks
and your rating on them is the new form of currency.
                                                                and only a few connections remained, but they were
On Jessica’s first day in San Francisco, she looked
                                                                weak. She had to rebuild her social currency in order
up accommodation on a craigslist-like social bulletin
                                                                to be able to facilitate even basic daily transactions
board on her tablet.
                                                                for housing and food.
She scanned the listings and selected a short-term
                                                                Akin to the crash in 2008, like those American’s that
apartment lease based on peer-reviews. She paid
                                                                were left very little to build on, Jessica finds herself
for it with social currency points she had racked
                                                                in that same situation. She now has to innovate
up on a Chilean network and converted them to
                                                                to survive by building new connections and equity
‘accepted everywhere’ currency points. Because
                                                                within them, or look to create a whole new way to
she paid up front, she received a few ‘community
                                                                survive in the network. It is only through innovatively
points’ from the apartment complex. This transaction
                                                                rebuilding connections and validated social equity
was all facilitated through a multi-point tracking and
                                                                that she will be able to transact for goods and
conversion software.
                                                                services.
While staying at the apartment, Jessica contributed
coding and tech support to the apartment complex.
In return, she received more ‘community points’
that she could apply to extending her stay at a
discounted rate. There are typically exchanges of
currency for services; this is no different than it was in
2012. The only difference is that the currencies range
from points that can be exchanged ubiquitously
or exclusively through select channels. The
government-issued currency is completely devalued
in the rise of fragmented currency systems.
Getting comfortable with exchanging contacts and
services through social networking, Jessica goes




financial futures                               blais, chow, mills, norman                                          22
Scenarios         4
Multiple Choice World                                                                                                   [3]

Primary Drivers
Network Access                                               Detailed Driver Placement
The entire system is dependent on connections in
order to build personal status and equity.

Security
In a very open source embracing system, keeping
personal information secure is paramount.

Innovation
A pursuit to build on or create new networks, along
with new approaches to maintaining and extending
the connections.

Desire For Knowledge
The only way to gain further personal status is
through multiple connections and developing
meaningful relevant connections.

Instant Gratification                                         Diagram shows relative strength of primary, secondary and neutral
The connections are so numerous and vast, needs               drivers within 2x2 matrix. The Multiple Choice World quadrant
                                                              is governed by Low Governance (y-axis) and De-centralized
can be met quickly through these networks.                    Financial Services (x-axis).




financial futures                            blais, chow, mills, norman                                                  23
Scenarios      4
Powered by Google
Low governance
Centralized Financial Services


In 2022, this techno-political world sees a new
frontier concentrated around the exchange of
information, centrally controlled by Google. The
government takes a hands-off approach, choosing to
operate through corporate entities.
Google has become the infrastructure that underlies
the majority of products. “Powered by” has cache
with consumers and Google has extended its
information-gathering capabilities to monitor
behaviour, cross-referenced with socio-cultural and
predictive modeling.
Google has infiltrated the fabric of society, amassing
information on such a scale that it has eclipsed
government through shear size, depth, interpretation          need of a new car. After an extensive, integrated
and analysis of trends, determination of cultural             wired search, he has come to the conclusion the
emergence and economic indicators. Google is the              desired car may not be attainable based his financial
one-stop, go to place; it fosters a feeling of trust,         situation, credit score and socio-behavioural index.
reliability and fairness.                                     This is a common occurrence in this world as highly
Richard resides in Texas, a protectionist republic            integrated indices pre-determine consumer access
haven within the United States. After the tumultuous          to products. This has given rise to a “credit-fixing”
events of the past decade, western economies                  industry, where brokers provide services to mask a
have restructured, seeing the benefits of centralized         person’s credit score and other indices.
control over information and delivery of service.             The government has turned a blind eye to this
Government has bowed to market pressures.                     practice as the result stimulates economic growth.
The result is a more deregulated society, where the           Many brokers use unscrupulous methods to achieve
free market and global aspirations have replaced the          the desired result, a methodology with grey ethical
conservatism that rose in the decade following the            boundaries. Richard visits one of the less reputable
economic collapse of 2008. It has a more entrenched           agencies to “hack” his scores, guaranteeing a
feeling of the Wild West of old. Independence, self-          positive result, yet leaving possible legal ramifications
reliance and a moderate disregard for rules and               if he is caught. The broker charges an extremely high
regulations permeate.                                         rate for the practice as there is high-risk involved and
                                                              consequences if caught.
Classically middle-class, Richard finds himself in




financial futures                             blais, chow, mills, norman                                          24
Scenarios     4
Powered by Google                                                                                              [2]

Google’s network extends into the consumer world               decides that legal action isn’t warranted and Richard
primarily through an affiliate program, designed               leaves without incident.
to give agencies access to information in order to
                                                               Frustrated that his expensive fix has not provided
anticipate a customer’s preference and purchase
                                                               what he wishes, Richard visits a Google affiliate
behavior, as well as helping to mitigate risk. This is
                                                               with a bronze service level that does not employ
a scaled service where a platinum level provides
                                                               the rigorous information scanning that the previous
access to analytic tools, predictive modeling,
                                                               business has conducted. Their data searching and
forecasting, behavioural analysis, health and wellness
                                                               analysis techniques are not intensive and they see
indicators, and, of course, buying tendencies.
                                                               Richard as a valid customer, based on the data
Whereas lower service levels do not allow businesses
                                                               provided. The salesperson shows Richard the car he
the full range of available information.
                                                               desires and they proceed to sign the paperwork.
Richard’s first attempt to buy his desired car sees
him enter a “platinum-service-level” car dealership,
part of the five-star affiliate program with Google.
They have a behavioral analyst on staff to help the
business manage potential clients and also predict
the client’s ability to make good on the credit that is
provided through the purchase.
As the client enters the store, a complete scan is
conducted, with retinal and DNA analysis to ensure
authenticity. Richard’s search behavior and product
selection tendencies are provided to the business
and they narrow the product offer prior to Richard
entering the store or interacting with a sales staff.
The behavioral analyst notices a discrepancy with
Richard’s rating because it is incongruous with his
behavior and purchase patterns.
There is a problem here, but because of Richard’s
solid credit score fix, the behavioral analyst needs
to go deeper into Google’s central knowledge
warehouse to conduct a “deep dive” into Richard’s
background.
Upon scrutiny, the analyst concludes that Richard
has indeed fixed his scores and the product offer
is immediately scaled down to what is affordable,
reducing the risk for the business. The business




financial futures                              blais, chow, mills, norman                                       25
Scenarios         4
Powered by Google                                                                                                        [3]

Primary Drivers
Network Access                                                Detailed Driver Placement
Network integration is high, always active and
collecting data. The infrastructure to manage the
continual uptime is new, bio-technical, robust, fluid,
redundant and flexible. Customers rely on this ability
to search and get product recommendations.

Security
Maintaining personal and business privacy has
forced massive investment into infrastructure,
monitoring and integrity-checking. Google provides
a system that is redundant, with multiple verification
procedures that are proprietary and a proven track
record, so much so that the only threat comes from
within the organization itself.

Access to Credit
Credit is a driver as employment is skewed to the
high and low ends of social class. Because there               Diagram shows relative strength of primary, secondary and neutral
is high importance given to independence, credit               drivers within 2x2 matrix. The Powered by Google quadrant is
is used more to satisfy need rather than status,               governed by Low Governance (y-axis) and Centralized Financial
                                                               Services (x-axis).
purchases just because.

Innovation
A key phenomenon in this world, innovation
permeates into both legitimate and quasi-legal
areas. Credit-fixing requires brokers to be continually
adjusting their methods to provide an appropriate
credit mask for clients. The brokers attract some of
the best and brightest due to the industry’s highly
lucrative nature.




financial futures                             blais, chow, mills, norman                                                  26
Scenarios       4
Signposts for Monitoring Efforts Going Forward
A signpost is a signal or indicator that a given scenario may be unfolding. For example, three years from now, if
there are radical changes to anti-trust laws, it might indicate that a potential future similar to the United States of
Apple may emerge. Here are some signposts we identified to help monitor possible futures characterized by our
four scenarios:


United States of Apple                                          Rise of the Brand
•	   Another massive economic crash with limited recov-         •	   Increase in multi-service companies like Virgin,
     ery results in a big bail-out by an individual entity or        Walmart, Costco (e.g. finances, insurance, health care)
     corporation                                                •	   Increase in multi-company buyouts and alliances, i.e.
•	   Single ownership of combined financial and communi-             Nike and Apple buy AT&T
     cation networks                                            •	   Growth in global alliance networks (e.g. Star Alliance,
•	   Exclusive relationship between one entity and the               etc.)
     government                                                 •	   Growth in lifestyle brands (Virgin, Starbucks) combining
•	   Increase in multi-service companies under a single              products and services
     massive, dominating and influential brand, i.e. Rogers,    •	   Increased investment and adoption of loyalty programs
     Walmart, etc.                                                   resulting in increased purchases being made with
•	   Deregulation of monopolies and radical changes to               points rather than dollars and an increase in the buying
     antitrust laws                                                  power of points
•	   Changes in laws around political party funding that en-    •	   Increased brand ubiquity
     able larger donations by corporations
•	   Reduction in the role of government
•	   Increase in corporations as government facilitator/ven-
     dors of choice, i.e. Monsanto in Iraq


Powered by Google                                               Multiple Choice World
•	   Information aggregators partnering with other brands       •	   Breakdown of leadership structures
     to develop and manufacture products and services, i.e.     •	   Occupy Movement’s 99% wins
     Ford and Google create self-driving cars                   •	   Increased number of multiple large-scale bankruptcies
•	   Information aggregators become angel investors             •	   Mass boycotting of large corporations
•	   Information aggregators enjoy special exceptions           •	   No money flow and tighter credit regulation
     to privacy laws to collect and manage information,         •	   National currency loses value
     i.e.Google does national census work                       •	   Increase in civil engagement
•	   Mergers for sake of information gathering                  •	   Increase in local governmental control and impact
•	   Decline of small information data warehouses.              •	   Return to bartering as transaction method
•	   Integration of public and private information in a cen-    •	   Mesh networks and micro-lending rise in popularity
     tralized location (in the cloud, etc.)                     •	   Social responsibility and personal reputation increase
                                                                     in value
                                                                •	   Fewer intermediaries, increase in peer-to-peer initia-
                                                                     tives




financial futures                                 blais, chow, mills, norman                                             27
Strategic Options                 5
financial futures        blais, chow, mills, norman   28
5            Strategic Options

Surfacing and Creating Options                                 Clarifying and Clustering
Taking into consideration the scenarios and the                Options
stakeholders, each member of the team brain-
stormed a list of strategic themes inspired by their           Each option was clarified by the author, then collec-
scenario.                                                      tively rewritten and combined and the list of about 30
                                                               options were classified into one of 10 categories:
The options were then aggregated and shared within
the group. Some of these options included:                             a.     Legal
                                                                       b.     Loyalty programs
•	 Invest in biometric identification technology (e.g.                 c.     Identification
   retinal scan, fingerprints, etc.) for various touch-                d.     Tools at point of sale
   points including ATMs (original thought was                         e.     Network infrastructure
   “include scanning capabilities in ATM”)                             f.     Security
•	 Extend knowledge/information tied to identifica-                    g.     Privacy
   tion to include psychological and behavioural                       h.     Social reputation
   characteristics                                                     i.     Services
•	 Explore expanded partnerships with alternative                      j.     Strategic partnerships
   loyalty partners
•	 Develop techniques to identify fraudulent activi-
   ties and mitigate risk




financial futures                              blais, chow, mills, norman                                       29
Strategic Options             5
Refining Strategic Options                                     Enhance Customer Experience
Upon further review, it became apparent that our                   Our stakeholder could invest in enhancing the
options list contained both strategic and tactical                 customer experience through service design. This
options. The team flagged the options that were                    would include looking at the brand touchpoints
strategic in nature and by using the ‘5 Whys Tool,’                along the customer decision-making process, in
they were able to widen their lens and uncover                     addition to mapping out how they engage with
the strategy behind tactical options. For example,                 banks directly through various channels and
the strategy behind the tactical option, “Introduce                products.
barcode, QR code or RFID scanning technology
infrastructure to allow for self-serve, over-the-
                                                               Cultivate Community Among Customers
air payments by consumers” became, “Improve                        Our stakeholder could enhance their social
customer convenience and experience through                        capital in its customers’ communities by offering
emerging technologies.” After considering tactical                 programs or initiatives that strengthen and enrich
versus strategic options, the team arrived at a list of            those communities and the associations they
eight options.                                                     have with the bank (e.g. ranging from recognizing
                                                                   that micro-lending is emerging and developing
A final round of refinement led to a list of five key
                                                                   complimentary services for the community to
strategic options, intentionally broad and general in
                                                                   sponsorship of local initiatives).
nature, with specific strategic direction, to provide
our fictitious stakeholder with the opportunity to             Acquire and Retain Consumers
generate actionable tactics aligned with company
goals and aspirations.                                             Our stakeholder could focus efforts on attracting



Five Key Strategic Options
                                                                   consumers and maintaining their loyalty of existing
                                                                   customers (e.g. they could look to product
                                                                   innovation as a means of attracting customers or
                                                                   to discounting/added value in the form of special
                                                                   offers).
Form Strategic Partnerships and/or
Acquire Businesses                                             Invest in Technology Infrastructure
                                                                   Our stakeholder could invest in developing
  Our stakeholder could potentially form strategic
                                                                   technological networks of their own and investing
  partnerships or alliances with complementary
                                                                   additional transaction services (e.g. a wireless
  entities and/or acquire businesses that could
                                                                   services network).
  reinforce a competitive advantage in the
  marketplace (e.g. consider partnering with Google
  to offer mobile payments via bank accounts
  linked with Google Wallet or acquire a foreign
  bank in which our stakeholder does not yet have
  presence).




financial futures                              blais, chow, mills, norman                                         30
Strategic Options          5
Evaluating Strategic Options Via Wind Tunneling
Wind Tunneling is a process by which the strategic options (what is most important for the success of the
stakeholder) are evaluated for their role and presence in each of the scenarios. This serves to identify areas of
implication and potential action based on organization priorities.
Because of the inherent variation between scenarios, the team felt that the Option/Scenario Matrix (a.k.a. Wind
Tunneling) was the most effective tool for assessing the impact and validity of each option in each scenario. In
order to keep methods of evaluation of the final dossier consistent with the ‘driver’ evaluation, the team opted
to adopt the Primary, Secondary and Neutral importance scale used to measure the trends, instead of the
traditional High, Medium, Low, Neutral wind tunneling measurement scale. The final evaluation of the options is
shown below:




                                                  United States Rise of the      Powered   Multiple Choice
Strategic Option
                                                  of Apple      Brand            by Google World


Form Strategic Partnerships and/or
                                                          P                P          P               P
Acquire Businesses

Enhance Customer Experience                               S                P          P               P

Cultivate Community Among Customers                       N                P          N               P

Acquire and Retain Consumers                              N                P          S               P

Invest in Technology Infrastructure                       N                P          P               P




financial futures                             blais, chow, mills, norman                                      31
Strategic Options               5
Wind Tunneling Implications by Scenario

United States of Apple                                         Role of Community
Remaining competitive and profitable in this scenario          N – Neutral
will prove highly challenging. The network’s governing         Since network access to bank services are
body will determine the level of customization                 highly governed and centralized, the voice of the
permitted. Existing bank products and services                 community is silenced. Heavy lobbying is required
will need to be redesigned to meet any and all                 in order to sway the policymakers’ decisions. There
requirements imposed by this new regime.                       is; however, the possibility of creating and leveraging
                                                               community locally at the branch level through
Strategic Business Partnerships                                customer appreciation days and/or town halls.
P – Primary
                                                               Acquire and Retain Consumers
In order to survive in this world, strategic business
partnerships need to be created and maintained                 N – Neutral
at the government level and with agencies or                   Consumer acquisition and retention is determined
manufacturers who are able to build or provide                 by the number of users in the network. This level
ancillary products and services.                               increases and drops along with birth and death
                                                               levels. Banks will need to find innovative methods
Customer Experience                                            to promote and differentiate within the network’s
S – Secondary                                                  constraint. They could, for example, create peripheral
                                                               services.
The bank can no longer rely on technology to
differentiate itself in the marketplace. A distinct            Technology Infrastructure
customer’s experience could continue to be achieved
in-person at the various bank branches, through                N – Neutral
visual identity and in the level and quality of service        In this monopoly, access and use of the network
offered.                                                       is tightly controlled. External software developers
                                                               requiring access to this secure network and
                                                               publishing rights on the proprietary mobile devices
                                                               must adhere to high standards and strict protocols.
                                                               Ongoing training will be required for the bank’s
                                                               executive and legal teams, customer service
                                                               representatives, bank tellers and IT staff. Potentially,
                                                               new software and hardware will need to be
                                                               purchased.




financial futures                              blais, chow, mills, norman                                           32
Strategic Options               5
Rise of the Brand                                                Customer Experience
                                                                 P – Primary
This is a highly competitive market where alliances
between brands are paramount in order to secure                  With so many options available to consumers in
customer loyalty. There will be significant innovations          this world, it will be challenging to acquire new
around service design and transaction facilitation               customers and difficult to retain them. In this world, a
in order to deliver the personalized service and                 competitive advantage can be achieved by adopting
experiences that are aligned with brand delivery                 a client-focused approach to service delivery, by
expectations.                                                    using social status as a means to position the bank
                                                                 in the marketplace, by adopting new technologies
Strategic Business Partnerships                                  that address consumer demands.

P – Primary                                                      Customers will be driven by convenience and
                                                                 lifestyle, making payments however, wherever and
Strategic partnerships will be vital to survival in this         whenever they choose. Consumers will demand that
world. Building brand recognition and aligning with              payments be a seamless and a positive experience;
brands that have complementary values will be                    for example, no more waiting in line at the cash
important to convey a unified image to customers                 register.
and attract continued loyalty. Business partnerships
will be much more important than governmental
                                                                 Acquire and Retain Consumers
affiliations in this world, and international reach will be
important whether through strategic acquisitions or              P – Primary
affiliation agreements.
                                                                 Traditional acquisition tools are still in place:
Some of the approaches to forming strategic                      sampling, introductory offers, advertising and loyalty
partnerships or acquisitions our stakeholder could               points. New programs and tactics will emerge
take, are to look at companies that traditionally were           that offer highly personalized offers with rewards/
not in the customer-to-business payment space, but               currencies unique to the brand in order to attract and
are increasingly moving to innovate in this space.               retain customers.
For example, if Amazon were to begin offering
                                                                 Being brand loyal will be ultimately more cost
financial services, our stakeholder could consider
                                                                 effective when amortized across a lifetime and
a partnership or acquisition to maintain profitability,
                                                                 lifestyle because there will be inherent added value
presence and influence in the consumer to business
                                                                 rewards for consistent usage of the brand across
payment sphere.
                                                                 categories. This aligns to a compelling retention
Another path would be to acquire or build exclusive              approach.
partnerships with complementary brands in the
                                                                 No-name brands could become new luxury or rebel
same sector, but in geographical regions where
                                                                 brands for those who can afford to shop outside of a
there is little reach within our stakeholder’s existing
                                                                 brand loyalty program. There could be a luxury brand
network (e.g. offering a full range of services to
                                                                 counter-counter with a rise of no-name among early
a foreign bank’s customer base in exchange for
                                                                 adopters and the wealthy. This could lead to some
similar reciprocal privileges for the stakeholder’s
                                                                 customer erosion if there is limited differentiation or
consumers).
                                                                 innovation within a given brand or product set.



financial futures                                blais, chow, mills, norman                                         33
Strategic Options
                                                                                          5
Rise of the Brand                                                                       [2]

Technology Infrastructure
P – Primary
The technology employed in the delivery of services
will offer opportunities to differentiate a brand,
establish a competitive advantage and build brand
equity. Access to consumer information will be
exclusive to brand networks with which consumers
are affiliated and will be secured on proprietary
networks.
Investment in technology infrastructure may be
extensive due to the competitive landscape. Broad
network penetration requires management of
multiple protocols and standards, while adhering to
strict security requirements to maintain the integrity
of each brand affiliation and not breach disclosure
assurances.




financial futures                              blais, chow, mills, norman                     34
Strategic Options               5
Multiple Choice World                                             built on accessibility and convenience. Any service
                                                                  based industry will need to ensure they have the
Multiple Choice World is a unregulated world where                infrastructure and points of distribution to facilitate
a diverse customer based is segmented into a                      and deliver on that expectation. Consumers in this
number of networks, each with their own protocols                 capacity control the exchange and the transaction.
and standards. Social capital is an important                     There is no longer the need for an intermediary to
consideration for innovation given that information               facilitate the exchange. The servicing will be in the
is valued as both a commodity and delivery of                     ability to provide access to networks and to tools
payment. In this world, currencies are fragmented                 that align to customer need.
and social capital is a sign of equity and resources.
As a result, communities are tight-knit and individual            Role of Community
consumers can hold a range of influence on other
consumers. Payment is done through social                         P – Primary
networks and is more akin to barter than to an                    This world is reliant on the depth and breadth of
exchange of standard currency. There is no financial              the community. Each network is a community unto
institution competition in regards to payment and                 itself whereby transactions are facilitated through
loans but there might be one for barter facilitation.             exchange between members. With a fragmented
                                                                  currency system there is limited opportunity for
Strategic Business Partnerships                                   individual credit ratings, the only validation an
                                                                  individual has in this world is their own reputation.
P – Primary                                                       This is a new form of social equity that is evaluated
Our stakeholder may be able to thrive in this                     by members of the community with whom there
context by offering services partnerships with                    has been a relationship or exchange. The collective
localized entities in order to ensure market                      community replaces any government entities and
penetration, community by community. Building                     through the expansive network of people more of the
strong relationships and partnerships with influential            community becomes connected shrinking what was
community members will also be a promising                        commonly considered 6 degrees of separation is
approach. To address fragmentation of currencies,                 now 4 degrees. The opportunity for our stakeholder
our stakeholder could also position itself as a leading           to be transparent and easily understood, this would
broker of multiple currencies, similar to a foreign               enhance approachability, which would lead to
exchange brokerage to facilitate the fluidity of                  understanding and greater acceptance within the
transacting in multiple currencies.                               community.

Customer Experience                                               Acquire and Retain Consumers
P – Primary                                                       P – Primary

In this world, a competitive advantage could be                   Loyalty is extremely fragile in this world as a result of
achieved by redesigning bank products and services                the multiple opportunities for affiliations. Acquisition
in order to help fulfill, alleviate, accelerate, or improve       is easy because there is a low-barrier of commitment
exchanges between individuals. This is a world                    and is facilitated by word of mouth. Retention is
                                                                  maintained because of of the social status of who



financial futures                                 blais, chow, mills, norman                                           35
Strategic Options
                                                                                        5
Multiple Choice World                                                                     [2]

is part of the network. Because information is both
a commodity and delivery of payment across the
network it will be important to understand how
to leverage the information to build a network and
connectivity with a customer base. There is a also a
high demand for customization; this will necessitate
the development of consolidated one-touch banking
products that can be used across a mesh network
or that have hackable/open source capabilities with
flexible usage and fee structures.

Technology Infrastructure
P – Primary
As networks are diverse and unregulated, therefore
adoption of standards and protocols are difficult
to manage as strict adherence. Technology
infrastructure has both conventional components
and innovative, non-traditional approaches to
connectivity. Social identity is key in this world,
providing a means of access and capital depending
on network style. Approval into a given network may
require extensive resources including administration,
processing and verification procedures. The need
to safeguard personal infomation is in conflict with
the role of social capital. Managing the flow of
personal information in a public domain along with
monitoring the values of multiple curriences will
require significant investments. The opportunity
is to develop services tied to customer behaviour
and social capital remain attractive options for
competitive advantage in this landscape.




financial futures                            blais, chow, mills, norman                   36
Strategic Options              5
Powered by Google                                             Role of Community
                                                              N – Neutral
In this future, the government has taken a hands-
off approach to regulation and compliance. Their              Google has infiltrated the fabric of society, amassing
growth in a grey market provides legitimate but               information on such a scale that it eclipsed
illegal services, such as credit fixing. Google               government through sheer size, depth, interpretation
is the key stakeholder and major provider of                  and analysis of trends, determination of cultural
information, services and prestige. Alignment with            emergence and economic indicators. Community
Google is critical to ensure long-term sustainability.        is tied tightly to what information Google wishes
Strategic partnership is a primary focus as well as           to capture and for that reason, tends to promote
technological investment to develop onto Google’s             connection between people. For the business,
platform. The institution must be flexible in their           accessing that information as a competitive
service offerings, while mitigating risk and ultimately       advantage is possible, but is still reliant on access
differentiating themselves in the marketplace through         privileges to Google’s infrastructure
innovation.
                                                              Acquire and Retain Consumers
Strategic Business Partnerships
                                                              S – Secondary
P – Primary
                                                              Consumer acquisition and retention is driven by
Partnerships remain confined to an affiliation                service offering and the ability of a business to offer
structure with Google. The level of investment                not only the best deal, but possibly be flexible on
or priority determines the access level within the            a customer’s ability to access credit. As a financial
Google sphere, providing access to diagnostic and             institution, up-to-the-minute trend analysis and
behavioural analysis. Other associations are possible         determining a customer’s profitability based on
and there is an ability to extend market reach by up-         spending habits and risk mitigation are necessary in
selling with an association that will share risk.             order to remain viable.

Customer Experience                                           Technology Infrastructure
P – Primary                                                   P – Primary
Technology plays a key role in differentiation with           Google drives major stakeholder interests and the
other competitors. Investment can be related directly         level of access to consumer data. Business affiliation
within the realm of Google itself, or through the             within the Google network provides both market
extension of Google’s developer base, allowing a              penetration and risk mitigation. Innovation and
company to add value on top of an existing shell.             application development trends are higher due to a
This is a critical component for customer service.            large developer community, generating innovative
However, customer loyalty is low in this world, as            service options as a competitive advantage. Security
customers will tend to go where the can get the most          is a key consideration due to low governmental
value for what they can afford.                               regulations, yet there is necessary compliance with
                                                              Google’s architecture.




financial futures                             blais, chow, mills, norman                                          37
Strategic Options          5
Discussion of Options and Stakeholder Implications
From the options elicited and refined from our four scenarios, we turned to Kees Van der Heijden’s Scenarios,
Strategy and the Strategy Process to design four customizable strategies to help the bank’s executive team
navigate its way towards a beneficial future.




                                                United States Rise of the       Powered   Multiple Choice
Strategic Option
                                                of Apple      Brand             by Google World


Form Strategic Partnerships and/or
                                                        P                P           P              P
Acquire Businesses

Enhance Customer Experience                             S                P           P              P

Cultivate Community Among Customers                     N                P          N               P

Acquire and Retain Consumers                            N                P           S              P

Invest in Technology Infrastructure                     N                P           P              P




Robust Strategy                                             Flexible Strategy
Significant But Safer Investments                           A Weighted Approach
Conservative in nature, the Robust Strategy                 A Flexible Strategy encourages substantial
proposes the bank concentrates its efforts and              investment in Strategic Partnerships and Customer
resources on Strategic Partnerships and on                  Experience as well as minor investments in
Customer Experience. Since both these options               Consumer Acquisitions, Technological Infrastructure
rated as high importance across most scenarios,             and in Cultivating Community Among Customers.
they guarantee modest returns and a return on               Although riskier than the Robust Strategy, this
investment.                                                 strategy offers the possibility of higher returns.




financial futures                           blais, chow, mills, norman                                      38
Strategic Options                5
Multiple Coverage Strategy                                     Gambling Strategy
A Balanced Approach                                            High Risk, High Reward
A Multiple Coverage Strategy involves equal                    A Gambling Strategy would encourage the
investments in all five options. This strategy is              Executive Team to invest in an option with a high
somewhat risky and more expensive because                      level of uncertainty (Role of Community, Consumer
investments are made in all areas, but not weighted            Acquisition and Retention and Technology
based on likelihood of occurrence. Its advantage is            Infrastructure). This strategy is the riskiest, yet offers
that it ensures that all options are covered. Since            the highest possible return.
the amount of resources invested in each option
is modest in comparison to the Flexible Strategy, it
offers the possibility of mid to high returns that could
cover any losses incurred on any failed investments.




financial futures                              blais, chow, mills, norman                                            39
Strategic Options           5
Strategy Assessment Tool
In order to assess which strategy to implement, and taking into consideration Van der Heijden’s work, we
created a matrix to help assess each strategy based on the following criteria:

Financial Performance
How will this strategy perform financially? Does the bank have the financial resources required to implement this
strategy?

Risk Management Performance
Can the bank mitigate the risks incurred through the implementation of this strategy?
How risky is this strategy?

Strategic Fit
How does this option fit within existing organizational objectives?

Cultural Fit
Does this strategy fit with the organization’s existing values?



Assessment Tool Template
                                                          Risk
                                    Financial
 Strategy                                                 Management        Strategic Fit    Cultural Fit
                                    Performance
                                                          Performance

 Robust Strategy

 Flexible Strategy

 Multiple Coverage Strategy

 Gambling Strategy



Note: This is to be filled out by the stakeholder with a low-medium-high ranking




financial futures                              blais, chow, mills, norman                                    40
Strategic Options
                                                                                         5
Next Steps
There are no facts about the future. The scenarios
and the signposts developed are to serve as a guide
to help our stakeholder make informed decisions
about how to steer their organization over the next
10 years. There are no formal conclusions to be
made, only recommendations and considerations
that will need to be evaluated based on organization
priority and risk tolerance.
What is anticipated is the migration from paper to
digital transactions and currency, all facilitated by
technological innovation that aligns with service
design. The shift in power and ownership, along with
the health of the economy is unpredictable at this
point in time. It will be these broader social shifts
that will inevitably influence and design the future
and help to place priority on any given investment.
The role of this work is to shine a light on potential
futures and to be aware of the signs that indicate
such a transition in order to make the best decisions
possible for the success of the stakeholder.
For further discussion about this foresighting exercise
or how this could be applied to any other initiatives
please reach out and continue the conversation.




financial futures                             blais, chow, mills, norman                   41
Bios
                                                  6
financial futures   blais, chow, mills, norman          42
Bios
                                                                                                          6
Eric Leo Blais                                               Jen Chow
Producer (Vice-President, Digital Media)                     Design Researcher
Peace Point Entertainment Group                              Nurun


With over 15 years of digital media production under         Jen is passionate about people, culture and digital
his belt, Eric Leo Blais continues to develop proven         technology, striving to help brands and businesses
cost-effective and creative business and marketing           build meaningful, valuable experiences for
solutions that leverage digital technology to promote        customers. As a design research methods geek, she
brand awareness, improve customer loyalty and                enjoys employing a range of techniques to uncover
retention and streamline business processes for              customer insights and novel business opportunities.
a wide range of industries including: information            Holding the strong belief that businesses have
technology, entertainment, automotive, health and            much to benefit from human-centred and inclusive
fitness and legal and human resources. Over the              design, she combines her background as a
years, he has worked for multiple blue chip brands,          Chartered Accountant and her graduate work in
including Lexus, Nissan, the Toronto International           strategic foresight and innovation to build compelling
Film Festival, Workopolis, Lexmark and Deloitte.             strategies for a range of organizations.
Most recently, Eric produced for Peace Point                 Jen holds Bachelor and Master degrees in
Entertainment Group a series of award-winning                Accounting from the University of Waterloo, with
mobile software applications for iOS, BlackBerry             an Option in Society, Technology, and Values.
and Android devices. He’s also facilitated a number          She is currently completing her Master of Design
of workshops on social media for non-profit                  in Strategic Foresight and Innovation at OCAD
organizations.                                               University.
Eric holds a degree in Art from the University of            You can connect with Jen on a variety of channels
Ottawa, a certificate in Design Management from              via jenchow.ca.
Ryerson University and is completing his Masters
of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation at
OCAD University.




financial futures                            blais, chow, mills, norman                                         43
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman
The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman

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The Future of Finance in 2022 - Blais, Chow, Mills, Norman

  • 1. FINANCIAL FUTURES 2022 The FUTURE of Consumer to Business Payment Prepared by Eric Blais Jen Chow Jessica Mills Richard Norman December 1, 2011
  • 2. Table of Contents 0 1 Financial Futures 2022 .............................................................................................................. 1 2 Horizon Scanning ....................................................................................................................... 6 Social trends ................................................................................................................... 7 Technological trends ....................................................................................................... 7 Economic trends ............................................................................................................. 8 Ecological trends ............................................................................................................. 8 Political trends ................................................................................................................. 8 Values trends .................................................................................................................. 8 3 Drivers and Critical Uncertainties............................................................................................. 9 4 Scenarios .................................................................................................................................. 12 United States of Apple .................................................................................................. 15 Rise of the Brand .......................................................................................................... 18 Multiple Choice World ................................................................................................... 21 Powered by Google ...................................................................................................... 24 5 Strategic options ...................................................................................................................... 28 6 Bios ............................................................................................................................................ 42 7 Appendix ................................................................................................................................... 45 financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman i
  • 3. Financial Futures 2022 1 financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 1
  • 4. 1 Financial Futures 2022 Statement of the Project will have near-frequency communication capabilities (Yadav, 2011), enabling smartphones to serve as both This is a proactive foresight initiative outlining possible wallets and payment devices. Dial-up internet will be futures for the financial and banking landscape in eclipsed by wireless networks, including emerging 4G Canada for the year 2022. The data and research is technology. Overview part of a graduate studies initiative undertaken in the fall of 2011. New technologies and innovations have been coming to market almost hourly in this rapidly- changing environment. In order to keep pace, telecommunications companies are evolving their services and expanding On New Year’s Eve, as the clock struck midnight and into new markets, while banking entities are working to the calendar rolled forward to 2000, the world waited facilitate secure financial transactions across multiple with bated breath. What the technology industry had platforms. Privacy laws in Canada have become neglected to account for was this significant change some of the most protective in the world as our lives in its design: there were decades with the prefix of 19, have increasingly migrated online. It is critical for these but somehow there was never a plan for the inevitable industries to consider looking beyond the rapid cycles change to accommodate the new millennium. There of daily or quarterly change and to look to the horizon were concerns of system meltdowns, security and beyond for signals and indicators of potential breaches and nuclear and economic disasters. Task futures and the strategic implications for business. forces were created, plans executed and anticipated It is in this constant state of flux that we have chosen hysteria reported by the media. In the end, everything to explore the potential futures for the financial industry was fine and the new millennium marched on. in 2022. Specifically, within the domain of the financial It has been ten years since the Y2K panic. Since sector, we have chosen to focus on the system that then, landlines gave way to cellphones and now to enables consumer-to-business payments. smartphones, growing approximately 50% from March 2010 to March 2011 (CBC News, 2011), with 32.8% market penetration in Canada (comScore, 2011). It is anticipated that within two years, 20% of all phones financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 2
  • 5. Financial Futures 2022 1 Research Question After refining the scope for this foresight study and before choosing a specific stakeholder lens to adopt, we decided to explore this research question: “For our key stakeholder, what is the future of consumer-to-business payment in 2022?” Key Stakeholder Profile The stakeholder perspective we adopted was that of a senior leadership team with operational control of a national bank in Canada with international reach. This bank has a tradition of being risk- averse, late adopters and profit-driven. This bank offers B2B and C2B financial services to help facilitate B2B and C2B transactions. Additional stakeholders and influencers considered throughout our process: • financial institutions • government • customers/end-users • telephone companies/network infrastructure providers • industry (retailers, services, manufacturers, etc.) • security boards • standards boards/regulatory groups • lobbyist groups • international funding agencies (IMF, WTO, G20, etc.) financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 3
  • 6. Financial Futures 2022 1 Financial System When considering futures within the financial sector, there are many components and relationships to examine. To define our project scope, concept and systems maps were created in order to identify and highlight tensions and challenges affecting multiple stakeholders, including our key stakeholder. Following is an exploratory concept map we created to capture some key stakeholders and system components within the financial sector. financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 4
  • 7. Financial Futures 2022 1 The payment system below represents a balancing feedback loop with businesses paying employees, who in turn, pay for products and services. At the centre of this systems map is a myriad of transaction types, currencies and regulatory bodies facilitating consumer-to-business transactions. This part of the systems map will be ripe for innovation and regulatory change over the next 10 years as technological innovation and consumer demand continue to grow. Note: we considered businesses to be entities that receive payments and employ workers (including government entities, NGOs and non-profits). Our systems map offers a focused view of the various interactions that take place during a transaction. Incremental steps indicate opportunities for innovation and system streamlining. Once again, elements of this system will evolve with changes in regulations, consumer demand and technological development. financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 5
  • 8. Horizon Scanning 2 financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 6
  • 9. 2 Horizon Scanning One of the most comprehensive and critical networks for financial support as opposed to relying components of foresighting and scenario-building on institution-based lending systems. is trend identification and analysis. Trends reflect a pattern of change in data impacting a substantial Social (Media) Unrest: All For One, One number of people over a period of time. For All…Sort of For this initiative, trends were identified and mapped The flavour of recent social uprisings parallels other using the STEEP+V framework, which encourages a emerging ideas: use of social media technology to comprehensive scan of trends across the domains organize, shifting individual values, opportunism and of Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental self-interest, all in the face of austerity measures. and Values. To ensure a thorough horizon scan and a Everyone Manage Your Money 360-degree view, we sought out emergent trends in each of the STEEP+V categories. Mobile tools encouraging more financial management to help manage budgets and facilitate Technological Trends The sixteen trends identified for this initiative transactions. are clustered by STEEP+V theme below, and the complete trends package is included in the Social Trends Appendix. Cashless Transactions Any Time Anywhere Dancing Cheque to Cheque Proliferation of ways to pay on the go, around the clock. Each year, fewer Canadians save money for their future. Some citizens are only one pay cheque away Smartphone as Personalized Branch from bankruptcy. Smartphones are increasingly capable of branch Friend Lend a Friend services. Emerging lending models that rely on individual financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 7
  • 10. Horizon Scanning 2 Mobi-Me-Money All In All There’s Another Bric In The…. Financial transactions between payee and payer The rise of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) as are migrating from paper transactions of cash and economic powers is undeniable, yet there is reason cheques to tech-based, online and mobile service to wonder whether Russia’s economic and political networks, creating less dependency on banking stability equals that of the other three nations. It begs services. the question: Is there another nation set to take over its position as an emerging economic power? Get Your Head into the Clouds Paying in Points Cloud computing, an evolution in computing architecture, provides flexible and scalable Currency, as units of measure for exchange, is infrastructure, software and hardware management, becoming increasingly fragmented. Loyalty points and allows for fluid customer-centric access to could become more reliable in the face of the Environmental Trends products and services to support the next generation unstable Euro and American dollar. of banking. Uh Oh, I Think I’ve Virtually Caught Something No’ Mo’ Money Grow There is an epidemic of cybercrime, which is coordinated and sophisticatedly driven by highly The resources to support capitalist benchmarks of Political trends coordinated teams. It is costing billions from theft, year over year growth are becoming scarcer. infrastructure and security, and threatens client Economic Trends privacy, eroding consumer confidence. I owe, I owe From home to government, the debt level in Canada Financial Climate Chaos Values Trends is increasing exponentially year after year. The national and financial landscape fluctuates quickly and erratically. It has become incredibly hard to forecast financial investments due to the existing chaotic financial climate. Forever in Debt Symbiosis of Financial Institution and Social values regarding debt are changing. Year after Telco year, the level of senior Canadians retiring with debt Credibility of financial institutions will complement is increasing. telecommunications networks. financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 8
  • 11. Drivers and Uncertainties 3 financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 9
  • 12. Drivers 3 and Uncertainties The underlying forces behind trends are known as drivers. There can be multiple drivers for any given trend and a given driver can be relevant to multiple trends. It is through the identification of as many drivers as possible and their consolidation ,based on similar themes, that a robust set of drivers emerge. Through our analysis of trends relating to the future of C2B payments, we arrived at 12 key drivers (see the Appendix for an expanded drivers to trends map.) Once the drivers were identified, they were evaluated on their degree of uncertainty and impact on C2B payments, using a scale of low, medium and high (L, M, H): Driver Uncertainty Impact Mergers & acquisitions H H Financial services structure H H Desire for government control H H Globalization M H Instant gratification L H Innovation (for efficiency) L H Demand for security (confidence) L H Network access L H Access to credit L M Cost of Living L L Social pressure L L Desire for more knowledge L L financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 10
  • 13. Drivers and Uncertainties 3 Drivers with high uncertainty and importance emerged. Once identified, we articulated what critical uncertainties to consider (factors with the highest impact and highest uncertainty). These critical uncertainties were then set at the axes for our future scenarios development tool: the 2x2 matrix. In this case, the critical uncertainties were the role of high versus low governance, bisected with the centralized concentration versus fragmentation of financial services. The full list of drivers were then applied across the 2x2 matrix and assigned a value of influence in each quadrant. financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 11
  • 14. Scenarios 4 financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 12
  • 15. 4 Scenarios “Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.” — Peter Schwartz The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 13
  • 16. Scenarios 4 financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 14
  • 17. Scenarios 4 United States of Apple High Governance Centralized Financial Services In 2015, Apple bailed out the U.S. government and eradicated their debt load. Their help had come just in the nick of time. Both the government and major banks were facing bankruptcy. Incidents of social upraising, violence and chaos were on the rise. It seemed like a civil war was inevitable. Apple’s help had come at a price. Today, 2021, Apple now owned majority shares in the U.S. government (now a publicly-traded company) and in all three remaining financial institutions. The internet is alive and well but for reasons of national security, iHomeland instituted a policy that his aging parents, divorced sister and teenage niece. all financial transactions and government-related This job had saved his life. He was retrained by his information reside on one single proprietary, secure new employer, paid a good salary and even given a network. The iMe, a paper-thin, malleable personal mortgage for his new condo. Life was good! When communication device, is introduced to access this the iMe was first introduced, American citizens often secure network for all transactions and is offered at carried two personal communication mobile devices. no-charge to all Americans. The device’s hardware In time, their trust in the government returned, they and access to the network was subsidized by the adopted the tools and features the device offered Apple government and taxpayer money. The model and, in an attempt to save money, the majority kept is similar to the old cellphone model whereby the the iMe and got rid of their old smartphone. Paper hardware was free, but the service and transactions currency still abounded but its popularity quickly came at a small cost. This pay-per- transaction declined. and service model was designed to act much like Eric walked into the voice-command elevator and the HST, as a payback system to repay Apple’s asked to be brought down to the parking garage. investment. Oddly, it didn’t move so he decided to try a more At first, Americans cried foul. They believed that this manual approach. He grabbed his iME out of is was the beginning of George Orwell’s 1984: the pocket and was greeted with the device’s customary control and influence of an oligopoly. But the reverse smiling face. He tapped the screen and the first happened, peace and prosperity returned to the page of the app’s icons appeared. He touched the land of milk and honey. The job market exploded magnifying glass (which reminded him of his old especially at Apple. Eric, 43, had been unemployed Android phone — may Google rest in peace). He for over two years and was forced to move in with typed an “E” and an “L” in the text box and the financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 15
  • 18. Scenarios 4 United States of Apple [2] elevator icon appeared. He tapped it but for some get to the bottom of this, he contacted a colleague reason it just wouldn’t launch. He slid his hand over at iNews to discuss. Instead of communicating over the elevator’s side panel, which activated the manual a device, she asked to meet Eric at their favourite display. He pressed “P” for parking, the doors closed café. Security is very tight in this new world, and and the elevator started to move. monitoring the networks is now commonplace. Eric got into his iCar to drive away, but just like the He was quite bothered because his daily navigation elevator, it wouldn’t start so he opted to take the of the world and routines were dependent on new iTrain instead. He tried to use his iMe to see synchronicity between voice-command, facial when the next train would arrive but his device was recognition and his iMe device. This was not normal once again not working properly or connecting to the behavior and he was concerned about what was network. happening. Was this a result of his discoveries this morning? Was he being shut out of the system as a He asked those around him if they were experiencing result? His heart raced; surely, he was wrong. similar problems with their devices. The man beside him unplugged the earbuds from his own device When he walked into the office that morning, he to let Eric know that the network was working for noticed fluctuations in the iCloud. He tried to stabilize him. The woman beside him confirmed the same. them using his iPad but nothing seemed to work. As the train arrived, he tried to pay the fare with his He made his way to the server farm and found the iME but his device had gone blank! He made his defective box. He tried to connect wirelessly but way to the nearest iTM and placed his finger on no luck. So he pulled out a cable the diameter of a the display for a quick fingerprint scan. The virtual string and magnetically connected it from his tablet assistant said: “We’re sorry, this fingerprint does not to the box. match any accounts on the iCloud.Please visit our He found a collection of fragmented files and as nearest booth at the mall to speak to a customer he tried to clean them, a string of text appeared. It service representative.” The train arrived. “I’m sorry,” seemed to be financial transactions for extremely said the iTrain attendant. “You can’t board without large sums. He was about to close the file when paying.” He had no money, no proof of identity, no a name caught his eye. Why did that name sound communication tool, and he was stranded an hour so familiar? Through his search concierge service away from the city, with no ability to pay through the he conducted a quick iWeb scan. It revealed that only system that existed for him. the names on the screen were U.N. ambassadors What was he going to do? that favoured the integration of corporations within the United Nations. Then it dawned on him that perhaps Apple was trying to buy their way into the U.N. It made sense, as it would be an incredibly aggressive but strategic move to protect the U.S. from the increasing dominance of Eurasia, while supporting Apple’s own growth demands. To help financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 16
  • 19. Scenarios 4 United States of Apple [3] Primary Drivers Globalization Detailed Driver Placement To amalgamate through acquisitions in order to remain internationally profitable, productive and competitive. Security To protect both personal and financial information against fraud, theft or personal harm. Network Access To provide ubiquitous communication and payment access across the United States. Diagram shows relative strength of primary, secondary and neutral drivers within 2x2 matrix. The United States of Apple quadrant is governed by High Governance (y-axis) and Centralized Financial Services (x-axis). financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 17
  • 20. Scenarios 4 Rise of the Brand High governance De-centralized Financial Services The year is 2022 and the multinational corporations have globalized the world, permeating all corners of the earth through branded networks. Some are single, massive global brands, others are families of affiliated brands. Branded experiences have become so fluid that geographical borders are now irrelevant. The only discernable borders are those where families of brands have several affiliates dispersed across different regions. Each brand offers its own loyalty program, catering to the diverse lifestyles and financial constraints in the marketplace, where the cost of living has If she were at Starbucks, things would have been become a heavy influencer of consumer decisions. different. That is a brand that provides customers The obsession with security, network access and with a seamless experience across all markets connectivity has led to an obsolescence of personal because of its strength and influence. Life was privacy. “Thank you for flying with Virgin. Please easier when she was aligned with Starbucks. Her enjoy your stay in Hong Kong,” was broadcast over tall refresh with honey or even a tall chai latte could the speaker system. Leaving the plane, Jen made be enjoyed anywhere, anytime in Toronto or here her way to the first tea shop that had a personalized in Hong Kong. Such is the life of a PhD student ad directed at her “Jen, come on over to have your attending a design conference on a budget. At least favourite tea, just the way you like it in Toronto.” Fresh Express is mindful enough to provide service in English, knowing that she was from Canada. She “Welcome to Fresh Express, Jen. We’re happy to had also opted into the “defaults” program to get serve you today as a Tim Horton’s affiliate. Would the best in personalized service, though these days, you like to have a medium mint tea with three sugars brands made it pretty hard to opt out of that. Privacy today? It’s just like your usual at Tim’s,” said the was a thing of the past, it was 2021 after all. holographic server. She agreed to the tea. However, the drink she received, while it tasted the same, Only a few years ago, Starbucks had tried to offer was in a different cup than she was accustomed her a hotly sought-after Level 2 Elite status in an to and the portion was smaller. Brand and product attempt to retain her in their program. As much as consistency was pretty close, but not exact. She she had wanted to stay, going back to school meant figured it had to do with portions being smaller in she simply couldn’t pass up the value promotion Asia and local culture still having a minor influence on offered by Tim Hortons at the time. Free Tim’s points brands. every week was too good an offer. It had been a six- month process to enroll in the Starbucks program, financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 18
  • 21. Scenarios 4 Rise of the Brand [2] complete with credit checks after referrals from five “Verification Laboratory.” She was welcomed at the friends. laboratory and asked for a retinal scan, a fingerprint and a DNA extraction. All of which were verified and Sadly, it was beyond her means, so she arduously aligned to the information already in their databases. completed the Starbucks exit paperwork and signed Then Jen was asked to place her mobile identity and up with Tim’s with the wave of her phone over an payment device on the charging and syncing station. identity-scanning terminal. For more sought-after brands, you had to demonstrate your loyalty. She Fumbling for her mobile with the cup of tea still in had considered joining the Loblaws program, with all hand, Jen pulled it out of her pocket and placed it its grocery perks, stylish clothing line and numerous on the screen with a red exclamation mark, face up banking outlets, but it was a close second choice on the station. The progress bar inched all the way since Tim’s was known for its robust global affiliates to 100% verified and now displayed a large green program. checkmark. “Jen, your tea is ready, hot and fresh. Thanks for Her identity and connection to the device has visiting Fresh Express. Your payment has been been restored and now all of her core and affiliate received over the air.” programs were refreshing and updating. Normally, at this point she would be released as it was just a Sipping on her minty beverage, she conceded that synching system failure that can sometimes occur life with Tim Hortons wasn’t so shabby after all. It when travelling. But this time, it was a synching error was Tim Hortons points that flew her across the caused by a security breach and personnel were on Pacific to Hong Kong via their affiliate arrangement site intercepting the identity thief. with Virgin. The network was not nearly as globally recognized as Starbucks, of course, which had Jen peered through the one-way glass into the store lounges at every major airport and express service and saw that a woman was being interrogated with via biometric scans. her mobile phone in hand, bright yellow exclamation mark hologram projections flashed from the device. Tim Hortons offered bare bones identity device Her phone was confiscated and she was arrested verifications. Their network systems definitely weren’t and a criminal GPS chip band was strapped to her as elegant, but they were sufficient. Virgin also ankle. had the best reputation for wireless networks for international travel, ideal for all the conference travel The woman was the stewardess who had given Jen had been doing recently. Jen an extra blanket on the flight. It must have been the blanket that had swiped her identity during the As Jen walked out of the café, an alarm sounded. flight. It was the second identity compromise she “BEEEEEEEEEEP! Jen, your account has been had encountered this week. In this world, these compromised and deactivated. Please proceed to incidents were not uncommon, though some the Fresh Express Identity and Banking Information brands’ programs were better than others, but the Verification Lab immediately.” Startled, Jen walked convenience of fewer identity breaches came at a over to a hallway marked with a sign that read price only the elite could afford. financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 19
  • 22. Scenarios 4 Rise of the Brand [3] Primary Drivers Globalization Detailed Driver Placement Growth in multi-national mergers, acquisitions, strategic partnerships among brands. Cost of living The disparity between salary and cost of living dictates what one can afford, despite the aspiration to keep up with the Jones. Network access Reliance on technology to support instant gratification and seamless connectivity to complex networks. Security The need for trust in a complex network where personal information is continually shared and transmitted. Diagram shows relative strength of primary, secondary and neutral drivers within 2x2 matrix. The Rise of the Brand quadrant is governed by High Governance (y-axis) and De-centralized Financial Services (x-axis). financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 20
  • 23. Scenarios 4 Multiple Choice World Low governance De-centralized Financial Services It is June 2022 in a world of hyper-connectivity and multiple choice. 6G networks are the norm with over 125% penetration of hand-held, pocket-friendly devices. The networks for information exchange are built and maintained through open-source frameworks that are championed and built on the direction of spirited socially-networked communities. Network access has become a human right and social networks have become more of an identifier than geographic boundaries. Personal identities are now formed almost exclusively on these social networks. The once- powerful telcos have restructured and are no longer sources are the new brands. The previously big product and of domination; their role is to support community- service brands now rely on exchanging their goods sanctioned initiatives. The more effective their service through these highly connected people. These is to the network infrastructure, the more they get digital networks are the new broadcast mediums to continue providing the service. It is a world of and people, through their social networks, are new abundance but one where balanced reciprocity is the channels of communication and distribution. emerging norm. Fewer regulations, coupled with decentralizing The U.S. banks never fully recovered from the 2008 across all commercial and social networks, has given economic downturn, rendering government-backed rise to a culture of rapid-cycling innovation, with a credit difficult to come upon. The quest for credit heavy reliance on instant gratification. New networks is no longer as important as it once was. Not only are coming into existence on a daily basis and has there been a shift in accumulating assets to each network is dependent on other networks — sharing assets, but for those who need credit there everything is integrated. What was once six degrees are now multiple sources of access fragmented of separation is now closer to four degrees. across networks. People can ask for funding-like support from an aggregate of angel investors. It is It is in this mesh-networked world that we meet micro-lending on a broader scale through mutually- Jessica, originally from Chile. She had recently beneficial initiatives. applied to be invited into the San Francisco area network to facilitate a physical move to the region. In this socially-networked world, there has been a There is a concentration of rapidly adopted social rise in the power of individuals as brands. These networks being established in San Francisco. Jamie Oliver-esque types reign supreme. Influencers financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 21
  • 24. Scenarios 4 Multiple Choice World [2] She can access them from Chile, but she would like about her day-to-day social equity building and to be physically closer to that kind of innovation. bartering. Unfortunately, her telco account gets Many interactions are done over the network, but hacked and sends fake transaction requests to face-to-face meetings are still of value as they have her entire network. She inavertedly orders three significant influencing power over networking. pairs of shoes, four rugs and three dozen bottles of champagne. All of the orders are promptly filled, Jessica’s application to the San Fran network was only for the network to find that she didn’t order recognized by another member who knew her from them and doesn’t have the means to pay for them. a Chilean network. This individual advocated on her As a result, her network is unhappy with her and her behalf by giving her a high-rating social score. In this social equity drops because of the security breach. world, the types of social networks you are part of She is immediately boxed out from several networks and your rating on them is the new form of currency. and only a few connections remained, but they were On Jessica’s first day in San Francisco, she looked weak. She had to rebuild her social currency in order up accommodation on a craigslist-like social bulletin to be able to facilitate even basic daily transactions board on her tablet. for housing and food. She scanned the listings and selected a short-term Akin to the crash in 2008, like those American’s that apartment lease based on peer-reviews. She paid were left very little to build on, Jessica finds herself for it with social currency points she had racked in that same situation. She now has to innovate up on a Chilean network and converted them to to survive by building new connections and equity ‘accepted everywhere’ currency points. Because within them, or look to create a whole new way to she paid up front, she received a few ‘community survive in the network. It is only through innovatively points’ from the apartment complex. This transaction rebuilding connections and validated social equity was all facilitated through a multi-point tracking and that she will be able to transact for goods and conversion software. services. While staying at the apartment, Jessica contributed coding and tech support to the apartment complex. In return, she received more ‘community points’ that she could apply to extending her stay at a discounted rate. There are typically exchanges of currency for services; this is no different than it was in 2012. The only difference is that the currencies range from points that can be exchanged ubiquitously or exclusively through select channels. The government-issued currency is completely devalued in the rise of fragmented currency systems. Getting comfortable with exchanging contacts and services through social networking, Jessica goes financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 22
  • 25. Scenarios 4 Multiple Choice World [3] Primary Drivers Network Access Detailed Driver Placement The entire system is dependent on connections in order to build personal status and equity. Security In a very open source embracing system, keeping personal information secure is paramount. Innovation A pursuit to build on or create new networks, along with new approaches to maintaining and extending the connections. Desire For Knowledge The only way to gain further personal status is through multiple connections and developing meaningful relevant connections. Instant Gratification Diagram shows relative strength of primary, secondary and neutral The connections are so numerous and vast, needs drivers within 2x2 matrix. The Multiple Choice World quadrant is governed by Low Governance (y-axis) and De-centralized can be met quickly through these networks. Financial Services (x-axis). financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 23
  • 26. Scenarios 4 Powered by Google Low governance Centralized Financial Services In 2022, this techno-political world sees a new frontier concentrated around the exchange of information, centrally controlled by Google. The government takes a hands-off approach, choosing to operate through corporate entities. Google has become the infrastructure that underlies the majority of products. “Powered by” has cache with consumers and Google has extended its information-gathering capabilities to monitor behaviour, cross-referenced with socio-cultural and predictive modeling. Google has infiltrated the fabric of society, amassing information on such a scale that it has eclipsed government through shear size, depth, interpretation need of a new car. After an extensive, integrated and analysis of trends, determination of cultural wired search, he has come to the conclusion the emergence and economic indicators. Google is the desired car may not be attainable based his financial one-stop, go to place; it fosters a feeling of trust, situation, credit score and socio-behavioural index. reliability and fairness. This is a common occurrence in this world as highly Richard resides in Texas, a protectionist republic integrated indices pre-determine consumer access haven within the United States. After the tumultuous to products. This has given rise to a “credit-fixing” events of the past decade, western economies industry, where brokers provide services to mask a have restructured, seeing the benefits of centralized person’s credit score and other indices. control over information and delivery of service. The government has turned a blind eye to this Government has bowed to market pressures. practice as the result stimulates economic growth. The result is a more deregulated society, where the Many brokers use unscrupulous methods to achieve free market and global aspirations have replaced the the desired result, a methodology with grey ethical conservatism that rose in the decade following the boundaries. Richard visits one of the less reputable economic collapse of 2008. It has a more entrenched agencies to “hack” his scores, guaranteeing a feeling of the Wild West of old. Independence, self- positive result, yet leaving possible legal ramifications reliance and a moderate disregard for rules and if he is caught. The broker charges an extremely high regulations permeate. rate for the practice as there is high-risk involved and consequences if caught. Classically middle-class, Richard finds himself in financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 24
  • 27. Scenarios 4 Powered by Google [2] Google’s network extends into the consumer world decides that legal action isn’t warranted and Richard primarily through an affiliate program, designed leaves without incident. to give agencies access to information in order to Frustrated that his expensive fix has not provided anticipate a customer’s preference and purchase what he wishes, Richard visits a Google affiliate behavior, as well as helping to mitigate risk. This is with a bronze service level that does not employ a scaled service where a platinum level provides the rigorous information scanning that the previous access to analytic tools, predictive modeling, business has conducted. Their data searching and forecasting, behavioural analysis, health and wellness analysis techniques are not intensive and they see indicators, and, of course, buying tendencies. Richard as a valid customer, based on the data Whereas lower service levels do not allow businesses provided. The salesperson shows Richard the car he the full range of available information. desires and they proceed to sign the paperwork. Richard’s first attempt to buy his desired car sees him enter a “platinum-service-level” car dealership, part of the five-star affiliate program with Google. They have a behavioral analyst on staff to help the business manage potential clients and also predict the client’s ability to make good on the credit that is provided through the purchase. As the client enters the store, a complete scan is conducted, with retinal and DNA analysis to ensure authenticity. Richard’s search behavior and product selection tendencies are provided to the business and they narrow the product offer prior to Richard entering the store or interacting with a sales staff. The behavioral analyst notices a discrepancy with Richard’s rating because it is incongruous with his behavior and purchase patterns. There is a problem here, but because of Richard’s solid credit score fix, the behavioral analyst needs to go deeper into Google’s central knowledge warehouse to conduct a “deep dive” into Richard’s background. Upon scrutiny, the analyst concludes that Richard has indeed fixed his scores and the product offer is immediately scaled down to what is affordable, reducing the risk for the business. The business financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 25
  • 28. Scenarios 4 Powered by Google [3] Primary Drivers Network Access Detailed Driver Placement Network integration is high, always active and collecting data. The infrastructure to manage the continual uptime is new, bio-technical, robust, fluid, redundant and flexible. Customers rely on this ability to search and get product recommendations. Security Maintaining personal and business privacy has forced massive investment into infrastructure, monitoring and integrity-checking. Google provides a system that is redundant, with multiple verification procedures that are proprietary and a proven track record, so much so that the only threat comes from within the organization itself. Access to Credit Credit is a driver as employment is skewed to the high and low ends of social class. Because there Diagram shows relative strength of primary, secondary and neutral is high importance given to independence, credit drivers within 2x2 matrix. The Powered by Google quadrant is is used more to satisfy need rather than status, governed by Low Governance (y-axis) and Centralized Financial Services (x-axis). purchases just because. Innovation A key phenomenon in this world, innovation permeates into both legitimate and quasi-legal areas. Credit-fixing requires brokers to be continually adjusting their methods to provide an appropriate credit mask for clients. The brokers attract some of the best and brightest due to the industry’s highly lucrative nature. financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 26
  • 29. Scenarios 4 Signposts for Monitoring Efforts Going Forward A signpost is a signal or indicator that a given scenario may be unfolding. For example, three years from now, if there are radical changes to anti-trust laws, it might indicate that a potential future similar to the United States of Apple may emerge. Here are some signposts we identified to help monitor possible futures characterized by our four scenarios: United States of Apple Rise of the Brand • Another massive economic crash with limited recov- • Increase in multi-service companies like Virgin, ery results in a big bail-out by an individual entity or Walmart, Costco (e.g. finances, insurance, health care) corporation • Increase in multi-company buyouts and alliances, i.e. • Single ownership of combined financial and communi- Nike and Apple buy AT&T cation networks • Growth in global alliance networks (e.g. Star Alliance, • Exclusive relationship between one entity and the etc.) government • Growth in lifestyle brands (Virgin, Starbucks) combining • Increase in multi-service companies under a single products and services massive, dominating and influential brand, i.e. Rogers, • Increased investment and adoption of loyalty programs Walmart, etc. resulting in increased purchases being made with • Deregulation of monopolies and radical changes to points rather than dollars and an increase in the buying antitrust laws power of points • Changes in laws around political party funding that en- • Increased brand ubiquity able larger donations by corporations • Reduction in the role of government • Increase in corporations as government facilitator/ven- dors of choice, i.e. Monsanto in Iraq Powered by Google Multiple Choice World • Information aggregators partnering with other brands • Breakdown of leadership structures to develop and manufacture products and services, i.e. • Occupy Movement’s 99% wins Ford and Google create self-driving cars • Increased number of multiple large-scale bankruptcies • Information aggregators become angel investors • Mass boycotting of large corporations • Information aggregators enjoy special exceptions • No money flow and tighter credit regulation to privacy laws to collect and manage information, • National currency loses value i.e.Google does national census work • Increase in civil engagement • Mergers for sake of information gathering • Increase in local governmental control and impact • Decline of small information data warehouses. • Return to bartering as transaction method • Integration of public and private information in a cen- • Mesh networks and micro-lending rise in popularity tralized location (in the cloud, etc.) • Social responsibility and personal reputation increase in value • Fewer intermediaries, increase in peer-to-peer initia- tives financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 27
  • 30. Strategic Options 5 financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 28
  • 31. 5 Strategic Options Surfacing and Creating Options Clarifying and Clustering Taking into consideration the scenarios and the Options stakeholders, each member of the team brain- stormed a list of strategic themes inspired by their Each option was clarified by the author, then collec- scenario. tively rewritten and combined and the list of about 30 options were classified into one of 10 categories: The options were then aggregated and shared within the group. Some of these options included: a. Legal b. Loyalty programs • Invest in biometric identification technology (e.g. c. Identification retinal scan, fingerprints, etc.) for various touch- d. Tools at point of sale points including ATMs (original thought was e. Network infrastructure “include scanning capabilities in ATM”) f. Security • Extend knowledge/information tied to identifica- g. Privacy tion to include psychological and behavioural h. Social reputation characteristics i. Services • Explore expanded partnerships with alternative j. Strategic partnerships loyalty partners • Develop techniques to identify fraudulent activi- ties and mitigate risk financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 29
  • 32. Strategic Options 5 Refining Strategic Options Enhance Customer Experience Upon further review, it became apparent that our Our stakeholder could invest in enhancing the options list contained both strategic and tactical customer experience through service design. This options. The team flagged the options that were would include looking at the brand touchpoints strategic in nature and by using the ‘5 Whys Tool,’ along the customer decision-making process, in they were able to widen their lens and uncover addition to mapping out how they engage with the strategy behind tactical options. For example, banks directly through various channels and the strategy behind the tactical option, “Introduce products. barcode, QR code or RFID scanning technology infrastructure to allow for self-serve, over-the- Cultivate Community Among Customers air payments by consumers” became, “Improve Our stakeholder could enhance their social customer convenience and experience through capital in its customers’ communities by offering emerging technologies.” After considering tactical programs or initiatives that strengthen and enrich versus strategic options, the team arrived at a list of those communities and the associations they eight options. have with the bank (e.g. ranging from recognizing that micro-lending is emerging and developing A final round of refinement led to a list of five key complimentary services for the community to strategic options, intentionally broad and general in sponsorship of local initiatives). nature, with specific strategic direction, to provide our fictitious stakeholder with the opportunity to Acquire and Retain Consumers generate actionable tactics aligned with company goals and aspirations. Our stakeholder could focus efforts on attracting Five Key Strategic Options consumers and maintaining their loyalty of existing customers (e.g. they could look to product innovation as a means of attracting customers or to discounting/added value in the form of special offers). Form Strategic Partnerships and/or Acquire Businesses Invest in Technology Infrastructure Our stakeholder could invest in developing Our stakeholder could potentially form strategic technological networks of their own and investing partnerships or alliances with complementary additional transaction services (e.g. a wireless entities and/or acquire businesses that could services network). reinforce a competitive advantage in the marketplace (e.g. consider partnering with Google to offer mobile payments via bank accounts linked with Google Wallet or acquire a foreign bank in which our stakeholder does not yet have presence). financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 30
  • 33. Strategic Options 5 Evaluating Strategic Options Via Wind Tunneling Wind Tunneling is a process by which the strategic options (what is most important for the success of the stakeholder) are evaluated for their role and presence in each of the scenarios. This serves to identify areas of implication and potential action based on organization priorities. Because of the inherent variation between scenarios, the team felt that the Option/Scenario Matrix (a.k.a. Wind Tunneling) was the most effective tool for assessing the impact and validity of each option in each scenario. In order to keep methods of evaluation of the final dossier consistent with the ‘driver’ evaluation, the team opted to adopt the Primary, Secondary and Neutral importance scale used to measure the trends, instead of the traditional High, Medium, Low, Neutral wind tunneling measurement scale. The final evaluation of the options is shown below: United States Rise of the Powered Multiple Choice Strategic Option of Apple Brand by Google World Form Strategic Partnerships and/or P P P P Acquire Businesses Enhance Customer Experience S P P P Cultivate Community Among Customers N P N P Acquire and Retain Consumers N P S P Invest in Technology Infrastructure N P P P financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 31
  • 34. Strategic Options 5 Wind Tunneling Implications by Scenario United States of Apple Role of Community Remaining competitive and profitable in this scenario N – Neutral will prove highly challenging. The network’s governing Since network access to bank services are body will determine the level of customization highly governed and centralized, the voice of the permitted. Existing bank products and services community is silenced. Heavy lobbying is required will need to be redesigned to meet any and all in order to sway the policymakers’ decisions. There requirements imposed by this new regime. is; however, the possibility of creating and leveraging community locally at the branch level through Strategic Business Partnerships customer appreciation days and/or town halls. P – Primary Acquire and Retain Consumers In order to survive in this world, strategic business partnerships need to be created and maintained N – Neutral at the government level and with agencies or Consumer acquisition and retention is determined manufacturers who are able to build or provide by the number of users in the network. This level ancillary products and services. increases and drops along with birth and death levels. Banks will need to find innovative methods Customer Experience to promote and differentiate within the network’s S – Secondary constraint. They could, for example, create peripheral services. The bank can no longer rely on technology to differentiate itself in the marketplace. A distinct Technology Infrastructure customer’s experience could continue to be achieved in-person at the various bank branches, through N – Neutral visual identity and in the level and quality of service In this monopoly, access and use of the network offered. is tightly controlled. External software developers requiring access to this secure network and publishing rights on the proprietary mobile devices must adhere to high standards and strict protocols. Ongoing training will be required for the bank’s executive and legal teams, customer service representatives, bank tellers and IT staff. Potentially, new software and hardware will need to be purchased. financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 32
  • 35. Strategic Options 5 Rise of the Brand Customer Experience P – Primary This is a highly competitive market where alliances between brands are paramount in order to secure With so many options available to consumers in customer loyalty. There will be significant innovations this world, it will be challenging to acquire new around service design and transaction facilitation customers and difficult to retain them. In this world, a in order to deliver the personalized service and competitive advantage can be achieved by adopting experiences that are aligned with brand delivery a client-focused approach to service delivery, by expectations. using social status as a means to position the bank in the marketplace, by adopting new technologies Strategic Business Partnerships that address consumer demands. P – Primary Customers will be driven by convenience and lifestyle, making payments however, wherever and Strategic partnerships will be vital to survival in this whenever they choose. Consumers will demand that world. Building brand recognition and aligning with payments be a seamless and a positive experience; brands that have complementary values will be for example, no more waiting in line at the cash important to convey a unified image to customers register. and attract continued loyalty. Business partnerships will be much more important than governmental Acquire and Retain Consumers affiliations in this world, and international reach will be important whether through strategic acquisitions or P – Primary affiliation agreements. Traditional acquisition tools are still in place: Some of the approaches to forming strategic sampling, introductory offers, advertising and loyalty partnerships or acquisitions our stakeholder could points. New programs and tactics will emerge take, are to look at companies that traditionally were that offer highly personalized offers with rewards/ not in the customer-to-business payment space, but currencies unique to the brand in order to attract and are increasingly moving to innovate in this space. retain customers. For example, if Amazon were to begin offering Being brand loyal will be ultimately more cost financial services, our stakeholder could consider effective when amortized across a lifetime and a partnership or acquisition to maintain profitability, lifestyle because there will be inherent added value presence and influence in the consumer to business rewards for consistent usage of the brand across payment sphere. categories. This aligns to a compelling retention Another path would be to acquire or build exclusive approach. partnerships with complementary brands in the No-name brands could become new luxury or rebel same sector, but in geographical regions where brands for those who can afford to shop outside of a there is little reach within our stakeholder’s existing brand loyalty program. There could be a luxury brand network (e.g. offering a full range of services to counter-counter with a rise of no-name among early a foreign bank’s customer base in exchange for adopters and the wealthy. This could lead to some similar reciprocal privileges for the stakeholder’s customer erosion if there is limited differentiation or consumers). innovation within a given brand or product set. financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 33
  • 36. Strategic Options 5 Rise of the Brand [2] Technology Infrastructure P – Primary The technology employed in the delivery of services will offer opportunities to differentiate a brand, establish a competitive advantage and build brand equity. Access to consumer information will be exclusive to brand networks with which consumers are affiliated and will be secured on proprietary networks. Investment in technology infrastructure may be extensive due to the competitive landscape. Broad network penetration requires management of multiple protocols and standards, while adhering to strict security requirements to maintain the integrity of each brand affiliation and not breach disclosure assurances. financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 34
  • 37. Strategic Options 5 Multiple Choice World built on accessibility and convenience. Any service based industry will need to ensure they have the Multiple Choice World is a unregulated world where infrastructure and points of distribution to facilitate a diverse customer based is segmented into a and deliver on that expectation. Consumers in this number of networks, each with their own protocols capacity control the exchange and the transaction. and standards. Social capital is an important There is no longer the need for an intermediary to consideration for innovation given that information facilitate the exchange. The servicing will be in the is valued as both a commodity and delivery of ability to provide access to networks and to tools payment. In this world, currencies are fragmented that align to customer need. and social capital is a sign of equity and resources. As a result, communities are tight-knit and individual Role of Community consumers can hold a range of influence on other consumers. Payment is done through social P – Primary networks and is more akin to barter than to an This world is reliant on the depth and breadth of exchange of standard currency. There is no financial the community. Each network is a community unto institution competition in regards to payment and itself whereby transactions are facilitated through loans but there might be one for barter facilitation. exchange between members. With a fragmented currency system there is limited opportunity for Strategic Business Partnerships individual credit ratings, the only validation an individual has in this world is their own reputation. P – Primary This is a new form of social equity that is evaluated Our stakeholder may be able to thrive in this by members of the community with whom there context by offering services partnerships with has been a relationship or exchange. The collective localized entities in order to ensure market community replaces any government entities and penetration, community by community. Building through the expansive network of people more of the strong relationships and partnerships with influential community becomes connected shrinking what was community members will also be a promising commonly considered 6 degrees of separation is approach. To address fragmentation of currencies, now 4 degrees. The opportunity for our stakeholder our stakeholder could also position itself as a leading to be transparent and easily understood, this would broker of multiple currencies, similar to a foreign enhance approachability, which would lead to exchange brokerage to facilitate the fluidity of understanding and greater acceptance within the transacting in multiple currencies. community. Customer Experience Acquire and Retain Consumers P – Primary P – Primary In this world, a competitive advantage could be Loyalty is extremely fragile in this world as a result of achieved by redesigning bank products and services the multiple opportunities for affiliations. Acquisition in order to help fulfill, alleviate, accelerate, or improve is easy because there is a low-barrier of commitment exchanges between individuals. This is a world and is facilitated by word of mouth. Retention is maintained because of of the social status of who financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 35
  • 38. Strategic Options 5 Multiple Choice World [2] is part of the network. Because information is both a commodity and delivery of payment across the network it will be important to understand how to leverage the information to build a network and connectivity with a customer base. There is a also a high demand for customization; this will necessitate the development of consolidated one-touch banking products that can be used across a mesh network or that have hackable/open source capabilities with flexible usage and fee structures. Technology Infrastructure P – Primary As networks are diverse and unregulated, therefore adoption of standards and protocols are difficult to manage as strict adherence. Technology infrastructure has both conventional components and innovative, non-traditional approaches to connectivity. Social identity is key in this world, providing a means of access and capital depending on network style. Approval into a given network may require extensive resources including administration, processing and verification procedures. The need to safeguard personal infomation is in conflict with the role of social capital. Managing the flow of personal information in a public domain along with monitoring the values of multiple curriences will require significant investments. The opportunity is to develop services tied to customer behaviour and social capital remain attractive options for competitive advantage in this landscape. financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 36
  • 39. Strategic Options 5 Powered by Google Role of Community N – Neutral In this future, the government has taken a hands- off approach to regulation and compliance. Their Google has infiltrated the fabric of society, amassing growth in a grey market provides legitimate but information on such a scale that it eclipsed illegal services, such as credit fixing. Google government through sheer size, depth, interpretation is the key stakeholder and major provider of and analysis of trends, determination of cultural information, services and prestige. Alignment with emergence and economic indicators. Community Google is critical to ensure long-term sustainability. is tied tightly to what information Google wishes Strategic partnership is a primary focus as well as to capture and for that reason, tends to promote technological investment to develop onto Google’s connection between people. For the business, platform. The institution must be flexible in their accessing that information as a competitive service offerings, while mitigating risk and ultimately advantage is possible, but is still reliant on access differentiating themselves in the marketplace through privileges to Google’s infrastructure innovation. Acquire and Retain Consumers Strategic Business Partnerships S – Secondary P – Primary Consumer acquisition and retention is driven by Partnerships remain confined to an affiliation service offering and the ability of a business to offer structure with Google. The level of investment not only the best deal, but possibly be flexible on or priority determines the access level within the a customer’s ability to access credit. As a financial Google sphere, providing access to diagnostic and institution, up-to-the-minute trend analysis and behavioural analysis. Other associations are possible determining a customer’s profitability based on and there is an ability to extend market reach by up- spending habits and risk mitigation are necessary in selling with an association that will share risk. order to remain viable. Customer Experience Technology Infrastructure P – Primary P – Primary Technology plays a key role in differentiation with Google drives major stakeholder interests and the other competitors. Investment can be related directly level of access to consumer data. Business affiliation within the realm of Google itself, or through the within the Google network provides both market extension of Google’s developer base, allowing a penetration and risk mitigation. Innovation and company to add value on top of an existing shell. application development trends are higher due to a This is a critical component for customer service. large developer community, generating innovative However, customer loyalty is low in this world, as service options as a competitive advantage. Security customers will tend to go where the can get the most is a key consideration due to low governmental value for what they can afford. regulations, yet there is necessary compliance with Google’s architecture. financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 37
  • 40. Strategic Options 5 Discussion of Options and Stakeholder Implications From the options elicited and refined from our four scenarios, we turned to Kees Van der Heijden’s Scenarios, Strategy and the Strategy Process to design four customizable strategies to help the bank’s executive team navigate its way towards a beneficial future. United States Rise of the Powered Multiple Choice Strategic Option of Apple Brand by Google World Form Strategic Partnerships and/or P P P P Acquire Businesses Enhance Customer Experience S P P P Cultivate Community Among Customers N P N P Acquire and Retain Consumers N P S P Invest in Technology Infrastructure N P P P Robust Strategy Flexible Strategy Significant But Safer Investments A Weighted Approach Conservative in nature, the Robust Strategy A Flexible Strategy encourages substantial proposes the bank concentrates its efforts and investment in Strategic Partnerships and Customer resources on Strategic Partnerships and on Experience as well as minor investments in Customer Experience. Since both these options Consumer Acquisitions, Technological Infrastructure rated as high importance across most scenarios, and in Cultivating Community Among Customers. they guarantee modest returns and a return on Although riskier than the Robust Strategy, this investment. strategy offers the possibility of higher returns. financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 38
  • 41. Strategic Options 5 Multiple Coverage Strategy Gambling Strategy A Balanced Approach High Risk, High Reward A Multiple Coverage Strategy involves equal A Gambling Strategy would encourage the investments in all five options. This strategy is Executive Team to invest in an option with a high somewhat risky and more expensive because level of uncertainty (Role of Community, Consumer investments are made in all areas, but not weighted Acquisition and Retention and Technology based on likelihood of occurrence. Its advantage is Infrastructure). This strategy is the riskiest, yet offers that it ensures that all options are covered. Since the highest possible return. the amount of resources invested in each option is modest in comparison to the Flexible Strategy, it offers the possibility of mid to high returns that could cover any losses incurred on any failed investments. financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 39
  • 42. Strategic Options 5 Strategy Assessment Tool In order to assess which strategy to implement, and taking into consideration Van der Heijden’s work, we created a matrix to help assess each strategy based on the following criteria: Financial Performance How will this strategy perform financially? Does the bank have the financial resources required to implement this strategy? Risk Management Performance Can the bank mitigate the risks incurred through the implementation of this strategy? How risky is this strategy? Strategic Fit How does this option fit within existing organizational objectives? Cultural Fit Does this strategy fit with the organization’s existing values? Assessment Tool Template Risk Financial Strategy Management Strategic Fit Cultural Fit Performance Performance Robust Strategy Flexible Strategy Multiple Coverage Strategy Gambling Strategy Note: This is to be filled out by the stakeholder with a low-medium-high ranking financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 40
  • 43. Strategic Options 5 Next Steps There are no facts about the future. The scenarios and the signposts developed are to serve as a guide to help our stakeholder make informed decisions about how to steer their organization over the next 10 years. There are no formal conclusions to be made, only recommendations and considerations that will need to be evaluated based on organization priority and risk tolerance. What is anticipated is the migration from paper to digital transactions and currency, all facilitated by technological innovation that aligns with service design. The shift in power and ownership, along with the health of the economy is unpredictable at this point in time. It will be these broader social shifts that will inevitably influence and design the future and help to place priority on any given investment. The role of this work is to shine a light on potential futures and to be aware of the signs that indicate such a transition in order to make the best decisions possible for the success of the stakeholder. For further discussion about this foresighting exercise or how this could be applied to any other initiatives please reach out and continue the conversation. financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 41
  • 44. Bios 6 financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 42
  • 45. Bios 6 Eric Leo Blais Jen Chow Producer (Vice-President, Digital Media) Design Researcher Peace Point Entertainment Group Nurun With over 15 years of digital media production under Jen is passionate about people, culture and digital his belt, Eric Leo Blais continues to develop proven technology, striving to help brands and businesses cost-effective and creative business and marketing build meaningful, valuable experiences for solutions that leverage digital technology to promote customers. As a design research methods geek, she brand awareness, improve customer loyalty and enjoys employing a range of techniques to uncover retention and streamline business processes for customer insights and novel business opportunities. a wide range of industries including: information Holding the strong belief that businesses have technology, entertainment, automotive, health and much to benefit from human-centred and inclusive fitness and legal and human resources. Over the design, she combines her background as a years, he has worked for multiple blue chip brands, Chartered Accountant and her graduate work in including Lexus, Nissan, the Toronto International strategic foresight and innovation to build compelling Film Festival, Workopolis, Lexmark and Deloitte. strategies for a range of organizations. Most recently, Eric produced for Peace Point Jen holds Bachelor and Master degrees in Entertainment Group a series of award-winning Accounting from the University of Waterloo, with mobile software applications for iOS, BlackBerry an Option in Society, Technology, and Values. and Android devices. He’s also facilitated a number She is currently completing her Master of Design of workshops on social media for non-profit in Strategic Foresight and Innovation at OCAD organizations. University. Eric holds a degree in Art from the University of You can connect with Jen on a variety of channels Ottawa, a certificate in Design Management from via jenchow.ca. Ryerson University and is completing his Masters of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation at OCAD University. financial futures blais, chow, mills, norman 43