5. Architecture 2030
• All new buildings, developments & major renovations and at a minimum, an equal amount of
existing building area renovated annually, shall achieve the following targets:
• 50 % now
• 60% in 2010
• 70% in 2015
• 80% in 2020
• 90% in 2025
• Carbon neutral in 2030 (using no fossil fuel GHG emitting energy to operate).
7. 2030 Research
• COAL
• There are 151 new conventional
coal-fired power plants in various
stages of development in the US
today.
• WAL-MART is investing a half billion
dollars to reduce the energy
consumption and Co2 emissions of
their existing buildings by 20% over
the next seven years. If every Wal-
Mart Supercentre met this target:
• The CO2 emissions from only one
medium-sized coal-fired power plant
in just one month of operation each
year, would negate this entire effort.
8. 2030 Research
• COAL
• By implementing The 2030
Challenge to reduce building energy
use by a minimum of 50%, we
negate the need for new coal plants.
13. Reality Check – Buildings Going in the Wrong Direction
460
440
420
400
Series1
380
360
340
320
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
• 1998 to 2005 Average Office Energy Intensity increasing.
• 10% Increase in intensity since 1990 (plus 30% increase in floor area)
• Source: Office of Energy Efficiency - Comprehensive Energy Use Database
14. State of Good Practice
2030 Targets
We know how to get to the initial target of 50%
improvement.
But there is little incentive to do so.
Does predicted performance represent reality?
16. Exploring the Carbon Neutral Option
• Scenarios based on the Architects Alliance Master Plan
• MNECB Reference
• Master Plan
• Ground Source Heat Pumps
• Natural Gas Tri-Generation (CHP + Cooling)
• Biomass Heating & Cooling
• Biomass Tri-Generation (CHP + Cooling)
• Renewable Power
17. Capital Cost
Relative Capital Costs ($10 )
3
Renewable
Non-Renewable
1870
290
790 720
580 510 510
0
MNECB Master GSHP NG Biom. Biom.
Plan Trigen. H&C Trigen
18. Annual Energy Consumption
5 Biomass
Energy Consumption
Natural Gas
(10 eKWh/year)
4 Grid Electric
3
2
6
1
0
MNECB Master GSHP NG Tri- Biom. Biom.
Plan gen H&C Trigen
19. Annual Energy Cost
400
Annual Energy Cost ($10)
350
3
Biomass
300 Natural Gas
250 Grid Electric
200
150
100
50
0
MNECB Master GSHP NG Biom. Biom.
Plan Trigen. H&C Trigen
21. C02 Emissions with Renewable Power
100%
eCO2 Emissions
43% 44%
42%
35%
28%
12%
8%3%
MNECB Master GSHP NG Biom. Biom.
Plan Trigen. H&C Trigen
22. State of Best Practice
• Assuming that today’s best
practice is 10 LEED Energy Credits
and 60% better than MNECB:
• All but biomass systems reduce
carbon by 55% to 65% meeting the
target for 2010, but not 2015
• On-site PV to net zero adds 35% to
capital cost ($13M)
• Off-site renewables adds 25% to
annual bill ($45,000)
24. Green Buildings
in North America
• Three Nation Teams
• Green Building Scenarios
• Valuing Sustainability
• Institutional Approaches
• Residential Green Buildings
25. Nation Wide Simulation Scenarios Developed
• Assumes Rapid Rollout of
• Good Practice - 35% < MNECB
• and
• Best Practice - 60%< MNECB
26. Scenarios - Canada Commercial
Renewables required
initially to match target
• Marbek Energy Consultants, Lawrence Berkeley Labs, Odon de Buen
27. Scenarios - Canada Residential
Residential GHG Emissions by Scenario - Canada
100
90
80
70
60 AIA
MT CO2
BAU
50
Scenario
40 1990
30 Gap to be filled by
20
Renewables
10
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
• Marbek Energy Consultants, Lawrence Berkeley Labs, Odon de Buen
28. Target is Technically Achievable
Major gaps:
• Real Data
• Motivation
We are currently going in the wrong direction
29. This is not the result of incremental change
Mind the Gap
• Marbek Energy Consultants, Lawrence Berkeley Labs, Odon de Buen
30. The Opportunity and
The Challenge
Buildings can be a major component of
our climate change response.
Can we achieve the rate of change
necessary?
Obstacles and Strategies
31. Overcome Inertia
• Strong up-front investments
needed
• To speed change:
• Build capacity
• Lower the cost of change
• Clinton Climate Change Initiative:
• $5B at half the cost of capital
32. Provide Credible Data
Star Performer
Benchmarking
Plan Performance Benchmarks
Individual Building
Building Sector
Performance
Action Targets
37. CaGBC Goals
• Short & long-term goals
• 100,000 buildings & 1 million homes certified by 2015
• 50% reduction in energy and water use demand from 2005 baseline
• 50MT reduction in carbon emissions by 2015
• 1/3 towards federal goal of 150MT by 2020
• Zero impact from buildings and communities by 2025
38. Scale is the Issue
• US - Apollo Project or Manhattan
Project
• The Green Draft
• 2030 requires 250 home retrofits (to
50% less energy) every day in Ontario
Source: NASA
42. Contact Information
Halsall Associates Limited
2300 Yonge Street, Suite 2300
Toronto, ON M4P 1E4
t. 416 644-4925
e. dwebber@halsall.com
w. www.halsall.com
