Solution Manual for Principles of Corporate Finance 14th Edition by Richard B...
Pension Corporate Finance: Funding Value
1. OCTOBER 27, 2010
A Morgan Stanley
Publication For Pension
Pensions in Practice Plan Sponsors
How Corporate Pension Plans Impact Pension Solutions Group
Stock Prices Caitlin Long
212.761.4995
Caitlin.Long@morganstanley.com
• The Fed’s “quantitative easing” program, which has caused a plunge in Ethan Bronsnick
212.761.5343
yields, has widened pension funding gaps by boosting the present value Ethan.Bronsnick@morganstanley.com
of pension liabilities, as Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist, Dick Hannah Zwiebel
Berner, points out. This creates dilemmas for CFOs. 212.761.3070
Hannah.Zwiebel@morganstanley.com
• Low interest rates expose four key risks embedded in pension plans:
1. Pension risk adds volatility to companies’ stock prices
Pension, Endowment and
Foundation Coverage Group
2. Pension risk increases a firm’s beta
Sandra Haas
3. Pension risk increases a firm’s cost of capital 212.761.1320
Sandra.Haas@morganstanley.com
4. Investors view pension liabilities as riskier than debt Chris Crevier
212.761.0039
Christoper.Crevier@morganstanley.com
• Our study found both empirical and statistical evidence that pensions
Ryan Vetter
weigh on the stock prices of pension-heavy companies. The pension- 212.761.8124
Ryan.Vetter@morganstanley.com
heavy threshold is a pension liability in excess of 25% of market cap.
Michael Jordan
212.761.1077
• Since the credit crisis began, plan size and funded status are the two Michael.Jordan@morganstanley.com
pension factors that impact stock price performance most. Asset
allocation matters less—though in different times it has mattered more.
• Surprising corporate finance implications stem from our analysis. The Transition Management
benefit from reducing a company’s WACC may outweigh the cost of
actions such as funding the pension deficit by issuing company stock, or Jim Kelly
212.761.8935
terminating the pension despite locking in historically low interest rates. James.F.Kelly@morganstanley.com
Similarly, funding pension deficits with debt would likely create
shareholder value by reducing enterprise volatility and lowering WACC.
Morgan Stanley does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. This is not a research report and was not prepared by Morgan Stanley research department. This material
has been prepared for information purposes to support the promotion or marketing of the transaction or matters discussed herein. It is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or
sell any security, commodity or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material is not (and should not be construed to be) individualized
“investment advice” (as defined under ERISA) from Morgan Stanley with respect to any employee benefit plan or to any person acting as a fiduciary for an employee benefit
plan, or as a primary basis for any particular plan investment decision . This material was not intended or written to be used, and it cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the
purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer under U.S. federal tax laws. Each taxpayer should seek advice based on the taxpayer’s particular
circumstances from an independent tax advisor. Please see additional important information and qualifications at the end of this material.
2. pension plans empirically mattered more to stock prices than
Pension Plans’ Impact on Stock during either the 2001-2002 stock market correction and
2003-2007 rebound. Potential reasons why ‘it’s different
Prices this time’ include historically low interest rates (which
We conducted both empirical and statistical studies to causes pensioners’ claim on firm value to be substantial),
confirm our thesis that pension plans indeed impact the higher volatility in markets, and sector rotation away from
stock prices of the companies sponsoring them. technology (which masked correlation between stock price
and pension exposure in 2001-2002).
I. Empirical Findings
We also compared the average historical and predicted betas
a. Pension-heavy stocks have been more correlated for S&P 500 companies between 2003 and September 30,
with equity markets than companies without material 2010, and found the following trend:
pension exposure. Pension-heavy stocks—those whose
pension liabilities exceed 25% of market cap— b. Pension-heavy stocks have consistently exhibited
underperformed during the credit crisis, between October higher betas than those of non-pension heavy stocks, and
2007 and March 2009 (see Exhibit 1). Subsequently, during the difference grew after the financial crisis began (see
the rebound, pension-heavy stocks outperformed from Exhibit 3). We found that the trend also holds true whether
March 2009 to April 2010 (see Exhibit 2). During both including or excluding technology stocks.
periods, the trends became more pronounced as pension
exposure increased. Exhibit 3: Average Annual Betas: 2003–09/30/2010
S&P 500 companies, excluding financial services and technology
Exhibit 1: Pension-Heavy Stocks Underperformed Beta
During Credit Crisis, 10/17/2007–3/6/2009 1.4
S&P Total Return: -44.38% 1.3
Number of Companies Ratio of Outperformers/Underperformers
180 1.0 x Ratio below 1x
1.2
0.9 indicates there
150 0.8 x were more
underperformers
1.1
120 85 0.7 (red) than
0.5 0.6 x outperformers
1.0
90 0.5 0.5 (green)
67 0.4 0.4 x
60 0.2 0.9
52 0.2
30 75 37 28 0.2 x
45 22 17 0.8
24 17 15 13
0 8 4 3 0.0 x
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0.7
Pension Liabilities as a Percent of Market Capitalization 12/31/03 12/31/04 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 12/31/08 12/31/09 09/30/10
# of Underperformzers Outperformers/Underperformers ratio pension-heavy all other
# of Outperfozzzrmers
Sources: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Sources: FactSet, Morgan Stanley
Exhibit 2: Pension-Heavy Stocks Outperformed
During Recovery, 3/6/2009–4/23/2010
S&P Total Return: +66.57%
Number of Companies
200
Ratio of Outperformers/Underperformers
7.3 8x Ratio above 1x
II. Statistical Findings
indicates multiple
of outperformers
150 6.3 6x (green) relative to Our statistical analysis tested whether pension metrics
76 underperformers
100 47 3.2 4x
(red)
helped explain stock price beyond simply using earnings per
30 2.2 2.5 2.8
19
share forecasts. We tested four pension metrics: (a) pension
50 104 1.4 76 12 11 2x
1.6 4 3
65 47 38 31
plan size (pension liabilities relative to market
25 22
0 0x
capitalization); (b) equity allocation of pension assets; (c)
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Pension Liabilities as a Percent of Market Capitalization funding status (pension assets less pension liabilities); and
# of Underperformers Outperformers/Underperformers ratio
# of Outperformers (d) contributions as a percentage of pension assets. We
Sources: FactSet, Morgan Stanley performed this analysis between 2002-2009 as well as sub-
periods, 2002-2004, 2005-2007, and 2007-2009. We
summarize our key findings below, and provide supporting
Pension exposure did not matter to stock price during data in Exhibits 4 and 5a, 5b and 5c.
the prior pension funding crisis of 2001-02. Indeed, it is
different this time. Since the beginning of the credit crisis,
This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material was not prepared by the
Morgan Stanley Research Department, and you should not regard it as a research report. Please refer to important information and qualifications at the end of this material.
2
3. Pension size, funded status, understandable in the context of extremely low interest
and equity allocation are all rates, since pension liabilities begin to behave like
statistically significant, as
indicated by a t-score >1.96 perpetuities as interest rates approach zero and pensioners’
claim on a firm’s value grows. Pension size impacted stock
price during each sub-periods and the entire 2002-09 period.
Exhibit 4: Multiple Regression of Stock Price
versus Independent Variables, 2002-09 c. Stocks of companies with better-funded pension
S&P RETURN: -4.9% plans are more highly valued by the stock market than
Independent Variables Coefficient T-statistic P-value R-squared
stocks of companies with large underfunded pensions.
Intercept -2.226 -1.176 0.240 0.682
Projected EPS 9.965 67.813 (1)
0.000 0.682 However, funding status was not relevant during the stock
Pension Liability as % of Market Cap -3.252 -6.205 (1) 0.000 0.682 market rally of 2005-07.
Funded Status (pension assets/pension
liabilities) 9.893 6.202 (1) 0.000 0.682
Equity Allocation Percentage 11.025 5.264 (1) 0.000 0.682 d. Equity allocation impacts stock price over time,
Source: Morgan Stanley although it is inconsistent in sub time periods and matters
substantially less today than it did earlier in the 2000s.
Exhibit 5a: Multiple Regression, 2002-04
S&P RETURN: +3.3% e. Contributions to the pension plan have no clear
Independent Variables Coefficient T-statistic P-value R-squared impact on stock performance. Contributions have become
Intercept -0.124 -0.043 0.966 0.680
Projected EPS 11.510 39.141 (1) 0.000 0.680 more relevant in recent sub-periods, during which they have
(1)
Pension Liability as % of Market Cap -2.533 -3.974 0.000 0.680 exhibited a positive impact on stock price. During the 2005-
Funded Status (pension assets/pension
liabilities) 4.329 1.969 (1)
0.049 0.680 07 boom, higher pension contributions had a negative
Equity Allocation Percentage 10.291 2.906 (1) 0.004 0.680
impact on stock price, while during the financial crisis
Contributions/Pension Assets 1.618 0.289 0.773 0.680
Source: Morgan Stanley
contributions helped stock price—indicating that in times of
stress investors value lower pension deficits.
Exhibit 5b: Multiple Regression, 2005-2007 f. Investors view pension deficits as riskier than
S&P RETURN: +22%
Independent Variables Coefficient T-statistic P-value R-squared
corporate debt. While fixed income investors and rating
Intercept 13.977 3.909 0.000 0.665 agencies have tended to view pension deficits somewhat
Projected EPS 9.815 43.015 (1) 0.000 0.665
Pension Liability as % of Market Cap -3.649 -3.395 (1) 0.001 0.665
qualitatively as ‘soft debt’ that could be extinguished by
Funded Status (pension assets/pension asset returns over time, our analysis suggests the stock
liabilities) 2.731 1.000 0.318 0.665
Equity Allocation Percentage 0.446 0.113 0.910 0.665 market views a dollar of pension deficit as worse than a
Contributions/Pension Assets -22.078 -2.573 (1) 0.010 0.665 dollar of debt, as Exhibits 6a and 6b show. Since pension
Source: Morgan Stanley deficits are inherently more volatile than corporate debt, this
finding makes sense.
Exhibit 5c: Multiple Regression, 2008-09
S&P RETURN: -24.6%
Independent Variables Coefficient T-statistic P-value R-squared
Intercept -8.113 -2.001 0.046 0.697
Projected EPS 9.608 33.888 (1) 0.000 0.697
Pension Liability as % of Market Cap -2.608 -2.540 (1) 0.011 0.697
Funded Status (pension assets/pension
liabilities) 14.856 3.790 (1) 0.000 0.697
Equity Allocation Percentage 7.102 1.801 0.072 0.697
Contributions/Pension Assets 32.333 3.570 (1) 0.000 0.697
Source: Morgan Stanley
a. Pension exposure impacts stock prices. Pension
plans’ size relative to market capitalization, funded status,
and allocation to equities each showed a statistically
significant relationship with stock prices.
b. Pension plan size is negatively correlated with
stock price—meaning the larger the plan size relative to
market cap, the lower the stock price. This relationship is
(1) Statistically significant if t-score > 1.96
This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material was not prepared by the
Morgan Stanley Research Department, and you should not regard it as a research report. Please refer to important information and qualifications at the end of this material.
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4. Exhibit 6a: Pension Deficit vs. Stock Price, 2002- III. Further Statistical Analysis: Pension
09
Stock Price Impact on Cost of Capital
$100
a. Pension risk has a statistically significant
relationship with equity beta. The bigger the pension,
$80 and/or the riskier its asset allocation, the higher the
company’s equity beta.
Steeper slope For this section we updated analysis originally published in
$60
indicates greater the Journal of Financial Economics, “Do a Firm’s Equity
impact
Returns Reflect the Risk of its Pension Plan?” by Li Jin,
Robert C. Merton, and Zvi Bodie, 2006. We found the
$40
relationship between pension risk and beta was weaker from
2002-2009 than that found by Merton, et. al., during their
study period of 1993-1998. Variations in data sources and
$20
methodologies (such as ERISA vs. GAAP data, domestic vs.
global exposures) may explain some of the difference.
$0 Our analysis measured the extent to which the pension beta
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Pension Deficit as % of Market Cap impacts the equity beta of each S&P 500 company that has
Stock Price
pension assets greater than 3% of its market capitalization.
Sources: FactSet, Morgan Stanley
b. Our results suggest pensions add 73bps to the
weighted average cost of capital for the S&P 500, at the
Exhibit 6b: Debt vs. Stock Price, 2002-09
Stock Price median. We found that for a 1.0 increase in pension beta,
$100 the firm beta increases by 0.38. In other words, slight
increases in the equity weighting of a pension portfolio
measurably increase the stock beta of the plan sponsor. Our
$80 results showed a weaker relationship than that found by
Merton, et. al., in their work, which found that a 1.0 increase
in pension beta causes approximately a 1.5 increase in firm
$60
beta. Data and methodology variations likely account for
the difference. We found an r-squared of 28.8% and the
overall results were statistically significant.
$40
$20
IV. Conclusion: What Companies Can Do
Our analysis implies companies can reduce the detrimental
$0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
impact of pensions on their stock prices by taking some or
Debt as a % of Market Cap all of the following steps, some of which may be
Stock Price
counterintuitive:
Sources: FactSet, Morgan Stanley
Notes: 2370 observations from 2002-2009; 101 outliers were excluded. In a 1. Fund the pension, which should help stock prices
multiple regression with projected EPS, pension deficit as a % of market more than paying down corporate debt. The funding
capitalization, and debt as a % of market capitalization, all variables were could take any form, but our analysis implies even that
statistically significant at the 99% confidence level. The coefficient for pension funding the pension with corporate debt is a net positive for
deficit was 1.5 as large as the coefficient for debt, indicating that pension
the stock price—because it replaces a more volatile form of
deficits have a 50% greater impact on stock price.
debt (i.e., a pension deficit) with a less volatile form (i.e.,
This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material was not prepared by the
Morgan Stanley Research Department, and you should not regard it as a research report. Please refer to important information and qualifications at the end of this material.
4
5. corporate bond or loan). More funding is probably better, as The authors would like to thank Chief U.S. Economist Dick
more risk would be reduced. Berner and his U.S. Economics Team for their contributions
to this analysis.
For pension-heavy companies, funding with common stock
could be positive for the stock price despite the dilution—
which, at first blush, is a highly counterintuitive result. For
example, JC Penney’s contribution of common stock to its
pension in May 2009 diluted its shareholders by 7.8%, but
its stock was up 1.4% on the date of announcement (vs. S&P
500 decline of 0.2% that day). Within a year, JC Penney’s
beta declined to 1.26 from 1.37, and S&P upgraded its credit
rating despite a challenging retail environment. The
transaction created value for JC Penney’s shareholders.
2. Reduce the pension liability, by changing the plan’s
benefit structure, closing, freezing or terminating the plan,
or accelerating lump sum payouts.
In 2012, when the IRS’s mandatory subsidy of lump sum
distributions fully expires, companies will be able to settle
their pension obligations by paying lump sum distributions
with little or no incremental cost. Consequently, companies
with substantial pension liabilities may begin in 2012 to
make enhanced efforts to settle their pension obligations to
eligible participants, which is the equivalent of paying down
debt. Eligible participants include retiring employees;
vested participants who no longer work for the company; or,
in the case of a terminating pension plan, potentially all
participants.
More companies are exploring potential plan terminations.
Again, at first blush, this may seem counterintuitive in light
of the historically low level of interest rates. However, the
tail risks of pension plans are greater in low interest rate
environments—because the present value exposure of
extreme, long-term events is higher. The higher cost of tail
exposures is partly why stocks are more sensitive to
pensions today than during the prior funding crisis of a
decade ago. Consequently, while plan terminations are
more expensive amid low interest rates, the positive stock
price impact of a plan termination is theoretically greater.
Companies should consider the potential for such strategic
transactions in their long-term liquidity planning, since lump
sums and plan terminations often require substantial
liquidity.
3. De-risk the pension, though at present the impact of
either funding the pension or reducing the pension liability
is greater than de-risking the pension.
This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material was not prepared by the
Morgan Stanley Research Department, and you should not regard it as a research report. Please refer to important information and qualifications at the end of this material.
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6. Exhibit 7: Average US GAAP Funded Status of S&P 500 vs. Pension Liability Discount Rate, 1986-present
US GAAP Funded Status (%) Discount Rate (%)
140% 10.0
129%
130%
121% 9.0
119%
120%
116% 117% 116% 116%
112%
111%
109%
110%
106% 8.0
105% 105%
103% 103%
100% 101%
100% 98%
91%
89% 7.0
90% 88%
82% 82%
80%
80% 77%
74% 6.0
70%
60% 5.0
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 8/31/10E 9/30/10E
S&P 12/31 filers' funded status Citigroup 20-year discount rate (year-end)
Sources: FactSet, Society of Actuaries website, Morgan Stanley.
Note: To estimate mid-year results, we use the S&P 500 Total Return Index (SPTR) as a proxy for equity returns, the BarCap US Aggregate Index (LBUSTRUU) as a proxy for fixed
income returns, and a weighted average of both for “other” asset returns. Company disclosures are not sufficient to estimate such factors as returns on alternative asset classes
or hedging gains.
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