1. Energy and Society
John Bradford, Ph.D.

2. Overshooting Carrying Capacity
 Overshoot occurs when
humanity's demand on
nature exceeds the
biosphere's supply, or
regenerative capacity.
(Catton 1980)
 Carrying Capacity refers to
the population size of the
species that the
environment can sustain
indefinitely

3. Exponential Growth
 Exponential Growth occurs when
the amount that something
increases is proportional to its
current size (or 'value').
 This is a result of positive
feedback.
 Example: The more people there
are, the more people will be
born.
 The rate or percentage increase
may be constant.

4. Exponential Growth
 You can think of Exponential Growth as SPEEDING UP:
1. The amount that is added growing larger over each unit of time
OR
2. The time shrinking between each additional unit of amount
added.

5. What is Peak Oil?
• Peak Oil production (aka Hubbert’s peak):
– the point at which oil extraction reaches its highest
level. After the peak, oil production declines.
– It is also the point at which half of oil supply (for a
well, a nation, or the world) is depleted.
– Many people believe energy production from
petroleum peaked already in 2005!

6. What is Peak Oil?
• Implication: Energy will
continue to become more and
more expensive!
– This does not mean we will ‘run
out’ of oil- at some point it will take
more energy to get the oil than the oil
produces.
– We use petroleum for
everything: our food,
pharmaceuticals, transportation,
etc.
– See http://dieoff.org

7. ‘Peak Oil’ Facts
 Oil contributes to about 40 percent of energy production and supplies 90
percent of all transportation fuel (Korowicz 2010).
 A barrel of oil, which can be extracted for a dollar, generates 25,000
hours of labor. $1 = 25,000 hours of labor.
 Up until the 1950s, the United States was the “Saudi Arabia of oil”- it was
world’s largest exporter. US production, however, peaked in 1970 at 10.2
million barrels a day and subsequently declined.
 Ten years later, domestic oil production was still in decline, despite the
fact that four times more oil wells had been drilled.
 Currently the United States uses 25 percent of the world’s oil but
possesses only 2 percent of the world’s known reserves
 1 calorie of food requires about 10 calories of hydrocarbon energy in the
US today.

8. ‘Peak Oil’ Facts
 Worldwide discovery of oil peaked in 1964.
 Today, there are about 50 countries that are producing less oil today than
in the past
 CHEAP ENERGY IS ESSENTIAL FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH. TODAY SUPPLY IS
SLOWING DOWN, WHILE DEMAND IS SPEEDING UP!

9. World Discovery and
Production of Oil

10. Net Energy
• It costs energy to produce energy.
• Net Energy = Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI).
When the EROEI of petroleum goes down to 1, petroleum
will no longer be market viable.
• The Principle of Lowest Hanging Fruit: we use up the
easiest to acquire sources of energy first. As time goes on,
our available net energy declines.
– There will always be oil in the ground, but at some point it will
take more energy to extract the oil than the energy produced by
the extracted oil.
Energy input Net Energy Energy output

11. ‘Drill Baby Drill’?
• What about the oil in the Arctic National
Wildlife Preserve (ANWR)? Can’t we drill there?
• At current rates of oil consumption, the ANWR
contains enough oil to power the US for only six
months. The Energy Information Administration
has estimated tapping ANWR would lower oil
prices by about 50 cents per barrel

12. Peak Coal
• US is the "Saudi Arabia of
coal“: US is the 2nd largest
producer of coal, after
China
• Coal production (per
weight) has not peaked, it
continues to increase
annually; however, total
amount of energy
generated from coal in the
US peaked in 1998.
• 30% decline in energy
content per weight since
1955.

13. Peak Coal
• Forecasts for peak coal production:
– Peak in 10 to 15 years (Energy Watch Group)
– Peak by 2020, and then begin a decline by
2050 (Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group)
Wyoming MTR site

14. Peak Uranium
• To replace the amount
of energy we currently
get from fossil fuels
with nuclear power, we
would need to build
about 10,000 of the
largest nuclear reactors.
• World Uranium supply
would then be depleted
in a couple decades.
Fallout from Fukushima

15. World Energy Consumption

16. Peak Oil

17. Global Oil Production
(1960-2008)

18. United States and Saudi Arabia Oil Production
(1960-2008)

19. Declining Oil Prices and Rising Output
(1960-1974)

20. Rising Oil Prices and Falling Rate of Output
(1987-2008)

21. Per Capita Peak Production
Global Oil Production per capita
(1961-2003)
140
Million Barrels per Day per capita
124
108
92
76
60
1961 1972 1982 1993 2003
Year
World oil production per capita. 1960-2003. Source: Energy Energy
Information Administration (EIA). Population figures from Ecological
Footprint Network.

22. Growth in Energy Use
(1990-2006)
Growth in per capita Energy Consumption
% change (1990-2006)
20
Variables
United States
% change (kt oil equivalent)
OECD (without US)
15 China
10
5
0
-5
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Year
Growth in per capita Energy Consumption. US, OECD, China.
1990-2006. Source: World Bank.

23. Energy Use and Economic Growth
US Energy use vs US GDP
US Energy use (kt oil equivalent) logged
14.8
14.5
14.1
13.8
28.5 29.2 29.8 30.5
US GDP (constant 2000 US$) logged
Energy use vs GDP. United States. 1960-2009. Source: World Bank.

24. Energy Use and Economic Growth
World Energy use (kt of oil equivalent) logged
World Energy vs World GDP (1971-2009)
16.4
16.1
15.7
15.4
30.0 30.5 30.9 31.4
World GDP (constant 2000 US$) logged
World GDP vs. World Energy Use. 1971-2009. Source: World Bank.

25. Energy Use and Economic Growth
US GDP and Energy Use per capita (1960=1)
United States (1960-2008)
3.0
Variables
GDP pc
x Larger than in 1960 (=1)
Energy Use pc
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
1960 1973 1985 1998 2010
Year
*GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) and Energy use per capita (kg of oil equivalent)
Per capita GDP and Energy Use. United States (1960-2008).

26. Energy Use and Economic Growth
World GDP and Energy Use per capita (1971=1)
(1971-2008)
1.8
Variables
GDP pc
x Larger than in 1971 (=1)
Energy Use pc
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
*GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) and Energy use per capita (kg of oil equivalent)
Global per capita GDP and energy use (1971-2008)