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IN THE
HANDS OF GOD
A STUDY OF RISK & SAVINGS IN AFGHANISTAN

   JAN CHIPCHASE   MARK ROLSTON   CARA SILVER
OPPORTUNITY




                financial inclusion
              mobile money > savings
               research boundaries
OPPORTUNITY




                             explore attitudes to risk & savings
                                     broader ecosystem
              how a new saving’s product would be positioned & communicated
CONFLICT




              available insight
           within the organisation
                 self-doubt
EMOTIONAL ROLLER COASTER
EMOTIONAL ROLLER COASTER
EMOTIONAL ROLLER COASTER
EMOTIONAL ROLLER COASTER
APPROACH
TEAM




       3 x researchers + 5 local fixers & guides + drivers
SALARIED PARTICIPANTS
METHODS
METHODS
BIASES & OMISSIONS
CHALLENGES
WITHIN THE COUNTRY
WITHIN CITIES




                    offices & homes
                 streets, retail, college
                street & hawala markets
EXTREME GENDER DYNAMICS




                                 degrees of conservatism
                          social pressure on local female guides
                                        dress code

                                     social rules
                               (and who can break them)
SECURITY




           [lets put it in context]
SECURITY




               [lets put it in context]

                     low-profile
           sufficiently trusted local crew
                   local transport
              priming social contexts
               situational awareness
MITIGATING RISK




                                 move with intent
                                  neutral clothes
                              situational awareness
                             neutralise self as threat
                             no visible items of value
                  carefully target first contact to prime others
                                  tap local guides
PRIMING ASOCIAL BEHAVIOUR
$200,000
$200,000

(the starting price point for facilitating a kidnap)
$200,000

      (the starting price point for facilitating a kidnap)

(which is why you work on building trust with your local crew)
$200,000

      (the starting price point for facilitating a kidnap)

(which is why you work on building trust with your local crew)

(which is why your local crew work on building trust with you)
TALKING ABOUT MONEY
TALKING ABOUT BRIBERY
THOUGHTS
GOATS, GRAIN, GOLD, LAND
REWARDS/INCENTIVES FOR SAVING




                                       lottery
                                        spot
                                employer contribution
                                    Shari’ah Law
“IN MY LIFETIME”




                   planned ISAF & US withdrawal
                        touched by the war
                             rule of law
                            Taliban rule
                              civil war
                          Soviet invasion
“IN MY LIFETIME”




                             ?
                   planned ISAF & US withdrawal
                        touched by the war
                             rule of law
                            Taliban rule
                              civil war
                          Soviet invasion
PREDICTABILITY OF LIFE (& DEATH) EVENTS
INTERTWINED FAMILY LIVES
INTERTWINED FAMILY LIVES
INTERTWINED FAMILY LIVES
INTERTWINED FAMILY LIVES
INTERTWINED FAMILY LIVES
A CULTURE OF CONTRIBUTION
RISK AVERSION STRATEGIES




                                       portfolio
                           how, where, when people withdraw
                             whom to invite to the wedding
                            compulsory car insurance vs bribe
NEGOTIATION STRATEGIES
SUMMARY
identity
banking
marriage
   ...
CLOSING




          “tomorrow is hard to believe in”
out of gods hands
THANKS

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In the Hands of God