"21st Century Flu Pandemic Insights from 20th Century History." Presentation given 21 April 2009 for the NJ chapter of InfraGard. A look at "lessons learned" from history of pandemics.
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Panflu History Jda
1. 21st Century Flu Pandemic Insights
from 20th Century History
Presentation for NJ Chapter Infragard
Tuesday 21 April 2009
Jonathan D. Abolins, CHSP
2. I had a little bird,
Its name was Enza,
I opened the window,
And in-flu-enza.
-American Skipping Rhyme circa 1918
3. Introduction
• Have forms and insurances cards ready.
(Just kidding.)
• Not speaking as a medical expert.
• Gleaning lessons from history to help
present planning for the future.
4. Flu by any other name…
• Influenza - from Italian “influenza di freddo” –
“influence of the cold.”
• Grippe - from Old French for “claw” or
“quarrel”
• Blitzkatarrh or Blitz Katarrh in German.
Lit. “Lightning catarrh” or “very fast mucus
discharge.”
5. Some technical terms
• Pathogen = a disease causing organism.
• Epidemic = local or regional outbreak of a contagious disease.
• Pandemic = global epidemic.
• Isolation = Controlling communicable disease spread by
separating persons known to be ill from those who aren’t.
• Quarantine = Like isolation, for people exposed to the disease
but who may or may not be ill yet.
6. Simplified flu virus nomenclature
(designation scheme)
Type of
Neuramindase
nuclear
material
Hemagglutinin
A/Fujian/411/2002 (H3N2)
Virus Geographic Strain Year of Virus
Type Origin Number Isolation Subtype
7. Typical flu symptoms
• Fever (usually high)
• Headache
• Tiredness (can be extreme)
• Cough
• Sore throat
• Runny or stuffy nose
• Body aches
• Diarrhea and vomiting
– More common among children than adults.
NOTE: Other diseases, such as the cold, may have these symptoms.
8. Why the fuss about the flu?
• Highly contagious.
• Flu can kill.
– The elderly and people with certain medical conditions at higher risk.
– Some flu strains can be far more lethal than the usual seasonal flu.
“I know how not to get AIDS.
I don’t know how not to get
the flu.”
- Alfred W. Crosby, Jr. quoted by Gina Kolata in “Flu”
9. Birds eye view of our timeline
• Pre – 20th Century
• 1918-1919 “Spanish Influenza” pandemic
• 1957-1958 “Asian Flu” pandemic
• 1968-1969 “Hong Kong Flu”
• 1976 “Swine Flu” potential pandemic
• 1997 & 1999 “Avian Flu” cases
• The present
10. Pre 20th Century
• 431 BCE plague hit Athens. Flu?
• 876 flu (?) epidemic slowed
Charlemagne’s conquest of Europe.
• 1580 flu followed new trade routes.
• 1889 – 1890: Severe pandemic.
– > 250,000 deaths in Europe
– 15-25 Million deaths worldwide.
11. 1918 “Spanish influenza” (H1N1)
• Deadliest known outbreak.
• 50-100 Million deaths worldwide. 675,000+ US.
– Influenza and complications killed 1.0% - 2.5% of the victims.
– Dropped 1918 US life expectancy by 12 yrs.
– Killed more people in 24 wks than AIDS had in 24 yrs.
– Compare with combat deaths:
• WW1 9.2 Million;
WW2 15.9 Million
Remember the human population
has grown since then:
World 1918 ≈ 1.8 Billion
2009 ≈ 6.7 Billion
US 1918 ≈ 103 Million
2009 ≈ 306 Million
12. Symptoms of the 1918 flu
• Normal flu symptoms.
• But many patients had other symptoms
that could include
– High fever
– Nasty, “rib cracking” cough
– Dark spots on cheeks
– cyanosis (turning blue), suffocation.
– Lungs filling with a frothy, bloody substance,
massive pulmonary hemorrhages
– Death.
• Sometimes, death came hours after the visible
onset of illness.
13. 1918 flu hits young adults hard
% Mortality for Ages
• Flu deaths usually among the very young
& the very old. Typical
• The 1918 flu tended to kill people 20 to
40 years old.
– “W mortality curve” <10 10s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60+
– People age <65 accounted for 99% of the
excess mortality of the time. 1918
• Possible reasons:
– Damage to the lungs as their healthier
immune systems fought the virus.
• Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) <10 10s 20s 30s 40s 50s 60+
– Another factor may be the impact of other
infections, including pneumonia or TB,
on top of the flu’s viral infection.
14. 3 Waves. 1st – Spring 1918
• Most likely first appeared in Kansas in March.
• Seemed mild at the time.
• The unusual age & mortality curve unnoticed.
– Influenza was not routinely tracked in those days.
– “It’s only the flu” view.
• By summer, subsided in the US. Went overseas.
• The flu went around the world in 4 months.
– This is before the era of air travel!
15. 2nd Wave – Late August 1918
• The flu changed into new strain or strains.
• First hit 3 ports
– Boston; Brest France; Freeport, Sierra Leone
• Really bad! Got people’s attention.
• Now, we’ll look at the conditions & responses…
Boston
Brest, France
Freeport, Sierra Leone
16.
17. Wartime conditions
• Collision of public heath & the war effort.
• This was a WORLD war.
– High mobility.
– Push to get “doughboys” to Europe ASAP.
– Military demand for doctors & more nurses. Shortages.
• Highly crowded conditions.
• Liberty Loan drives and other patriotic gatherings.
• Some people suspected German germ warfare.
• Wartime censorship.
– Why “Spanish” Flu?
18.
19. Social & economic impacts
• Many people panicked by the
symptoms.
• While some helped the ill, others
fled.
– Some of the sick died from
starvation, etc.
– Sometimes, it was hard to recruit
volunteers.
• The pandemic may have cost the
US >$600 Billion (est. in present
day dollars)
– Including decreased
business & closings.
20. Medical services overwhelmed
• Example: San Francisco Hospital
– By end of Oct 1918, had 1,100 pneumonia patients,
overflowing capacity.
– Admitted 3,509 respiratory cases during the
pandemic. Of these, 26% died
– 78% of nurses fell ill.
– Others may have been
ill but soldiered on.
Emergency hospital set up in
an auditorium in Oakland.
21. Measures varied across the US
Among measures used:
– Prohibited or restricted public
gatherings.
– Quarantine & isolation.
– Education campaigns.
– Deploying public health doctors & nurses.
– Vaccinations (ineffectual)
– Mask laws and laws against spitting, etc.
• Stiff fines for “mask slackers,” spitters, etc.
A “mask slacker” barred from
getting onto a streetcar.
22. Philadelphia & the 1918 flu
• 26% of doctors & even more nurses in
military.
• 75% hospital staff overseas.
• Sep18th: Flu first appeared at the naval
base.
• Campaign against coughing, sneezing,
and spitting. Days after Philadelphia’s
Liberty Loan parade in
• Oct 3rd: public gathering ban issued. September 1918, which was
attended by 200,000 people,
• Firemen, garbage collectors & other hundreds of cases of
influenza were reported.
city employees fall sick. [Credit: Naval Historical
Center]
• City morgue overflowing. Convicts dig
graves. City opens 5 more morgues.
• Oct 27th: public gathering ban lifted.
23. What to tell the public?
• Officials sought to keep up morale.
– Full information was not given.
– Emphasized a “do not fear” message.
– “Fear Kills More Than the Disease.”
– Said that one’s safe if following
recommended precautions.
• But the public was seeing a
drastically different reality.
– That may have increased fear.
• Challenge of communications
to gain compliance, keep up
morale, etc. without “cognitive
dissonance” or disillusionment.
24. Racing for a vaccine - 1918
• Viral cause unknown until 1930s.
– Flu though to be caused by bacteria.
“Pfeiffer’s Bacillus” (Haemophilus influenzae)
• Vaccine research was on the wrong track.
– Viral cause of flu discovered later.
• Dr. Joseph Goldberger’s
experiment to get 39
volunteers infected.
– Pfeiffer’s Bacillus doses, contact with
flu patients, etc. It fails! Non caught
the flu. (Murphy’s Law at work.)
25. 3rd Wave – Spring 1919
• Not as bad as the 2nd wave.
• Much of the world exposed.
• Still, many people got ill.
– Many communities had lifted measures.
– In many places, public balked at renewed
restrictions.
• Afterwards
– Some people had some debilitation.
– Possible impact upon Versailles Treaty negotiations.
– Scientific progress in understanding flu.
26. Vaccines after 1918
• 1930s-1940s – Techniques for making flu
vaccines start to be developed.
– Viruses can be grown in embryonated chicken eggs.
– US military develops & tests vaccines in the 1940s.
• Time factors:
– At least 6 months to develop, test, and produce
vaccines for commercial distribution.
– ≈3 weeks after injection to have immunity.
• Obstacles
– Early vaccines had common side effects. Fever and
sore arms.
– Economic issues (liability, profitability)
27. 1957-1958 Asian Flu (H2N2)
• Unlike 1918 flu, this one’s quickly identified.
• Despite advance in medicine, still killed.
– Worldwide ≈ 2 Million deaths.
– US ≈ 70,000 deaths, mostly among the elderly.
• Vaccine available but too little too late.
– Asian Flu detected in February.
– Vaccine approved in July. Production begins.
– Not ready until winter.
– By mid October, ≈7 Million people vaccinated.
– Many unused doses left after flu had passed.
28. 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu (H3N2)
• Detected in July.
• All out vaccine production effort.
– But 1st lot not available until mid-Nov, 3
weeks after 1st US outbreak in California.
– At peak of outbreak, only 10M doses
distributed and ≈6M people protected.
• Again, vaccine was too little too late.
• Milder than previous pandemics.
• Still, ≈ 34,000 deaths in the US.
29. 1976 Swine Flu (H1N1)
• January: Pvt. David Lewis at Ft. Dix dies.
– Soon, 300 other soldiers ill.
• Indications that the flu might be related to the
1918 pandemic.
– Similar strain had been found in pigs since 1920s.
– Legionnaires' disease thought to be the flu.
• This time, the push was to have enough
vaccines in time.
• The National Influenza Immunization
Program
30. Swine Flu vaccination snarls
• Challenges of public perceptions of risks vs. benefits,
unrealistic expectations, and bad press coverage.
• 3 elderly people died soon after the flu shot.
• Cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) among some flu
shot recipients.
– Many possible factors for GBS.
– But some people blamed the flu shot for GBS
• Dec 16th, US suspends the program.
– 40 Million people vaccinated for flu that didn’t come.
• Fallout from the “Swine Flu Fiasco”
– Cynicism about govt. health programs.
– For decades afterwards, pandemic flu was a topic best to avoid.
32. 1997 & 1999 Avian Flu cases
• 1997: H5N1. Hong Kong.
– Several hundred people ill. 18 hospitalized, of which 6 died.
– The more severe illness in young adults resembled the 1918 flu.
– All chickens in Hong Kong killed to prevent virus spread.
– No further human infections found.
• 1999: H9N2. Hong Kong.
– Caused illness in couple of Hong Kong children.
• Direct Bird to Human transmission in both cases.
– No pig intermediary.
– No Human to Human transmission.
• Concerns:
– The viruses presence in birds. Several other cases since 2000.
– Flu viruses ability to change & become transmissible among
humans.
– Avian flu is being monitored.
• That brings us to today.
33. Time factors are critical
• Time to detect & isolate virus.
• Time to decide to make vaccine.
• Time to enact the decision (legal, PR, liability hurdles)
• Time to develop, test, and manufacture vaccine (6 mos)
• Time to vaccinate people.
• Time to develop immunity after vaccination.
• Time for the pandemic to reach your part of the world.
• Might not have vaccine until after the flu passed.
Hypothetical present day: 180 days
1968: 342 days
34. Other lessons
• Time is critical. Yet difficult to commit.
– Value of medical surveillance & early detection.
• Value of volunteers & public cooperation.
• Murphy’s Law can (will) apply.
– Other things can compete for attention.
– Medical people & responders getting sick.
– People may act in unexpected ways.
• Challenge of communications
– Maintaining morale without losing trust.
• We’ve been through this before & survived.
35. Thank you.
Jonathan D. Abolins
Jon.Abolins@gmail.com
jonathan.d.abolins@infragard.org
Blog: http://jabolins.livejournal.com
Certified Homeland Security Professionals
[CHSP] Certification & Learning Portal:
http://www.sighls.org/learning/
36. Bibliography
• “1918 Influenza A (H1N1) Fact Sheet.” Federation of American Scientists.
<http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/bio/factsheets/H1N1factsheet.html>
• “Author Brings quot;The Great Influenzaquot; to the School.” Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
<http://www.jhsph.edu/publichealthnews/articles/2005/great_influenza.html>
• Barry, John M. The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History. New York: Penguin Books, 2004.
ISBN 0670-8947347.
• The Great Pandemic: The United States in 1918-1919. Office of the Public Health Service Historian.
<http://1918.pandemicflu.gov/>
• Homeland Security – Consequence Management: Pandemic Flu. GlobalSecurity.org.
<http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3.htm>
• Iezzoni, Lynette. Influenza 1918: The worst epidemic in American history. New York: TV Books, L.L.C., 1999. ISBN
157500108X
• Kolata, Gina. Flu: The Story of the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 and the Search for the Virus That Caused It. New
York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1999. ISBN 0374157065.
• Osborn. June, ed. History, Science, and Politics: Influenza in America 1918-1976. New York: PORDIST, 1977. ISBN
0882021761.
• PandemicFlu.gov. US Department of Health & Human Services. <http://www.pandemicflu.gov/>
• “Philadelphia, Nurses, and the Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918.” US Navy Historical Center.
<http://www.history.navy.mil/library/online/influenza%20phil%201918.htm>
• Tracking the Next Killer Flu. National Geographic. October 2005. Print edition and Online edition.
<http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0510/feature1/index.html>
• With Every Epidemic, Tough Choices, by Lawrence K. Altman, MD. New York Times; March 28, 2006.
<http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/28/health/28docs.html>