C22-2_2_Los incendios forestales en España en un contexto de cambio climático

Cambio Climático e Incendios
Forestales
José Manuel Moreno
Academia de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades de Castilla-La Mancha

Sumario
• Tendencias en España
• Relación incendios clima
• Proyecciones futuras de peligro
• Conclusiones

Fig. 1 a Total number of fires and b total burned area (ha) per 10 × 10 km grid cell accumulated for 1980–2013 in
Peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands. For trend analysis, data were aggregated at the provincial (gray polygons) and
country level. De Urbieta et al. 2019: Annals of Forest Science (2019) 76:90

Fig. 2 Fire data annual series for Peninsular Spain
and the Balearic Islands (1980–2013). a Number of
fires and total burned area (ha). B P50 and P95 of
fire size (ha). c Treed and treeless burned area (ha).
D Treed and treeless burned area (%). e Burned area
(ha) of Pinus species and Quercus species. f Pinus
and Quercus burned area (%) relative to total treed
burned area. A loess smoothing line is shown for
significant trends (p < 0.05). De: Urbieta et al. 2019.
Annals of Forest Science 76:90

Fig. 3 Fire data trends at provincial level (1980–2013). a Number of fires. b
Total burned area (ha). c P50 of fire size (ha). d P95 of fire size (ha). Legend
represents modified Mann-Kendall’s Tau coefficient with negative trends in
green, positive trends in red, and gray no significant trends in the data series
(p < 0.05). Numbers within each province indicate the breakpoint year in the
data series for the corresponding variable. De: Urbieta et al. 2019. Annals of
Forest Science 76:90

Fig. 4 Trends at provincial level (1980–2013). Burned area (ha) of a treed and b treeless areas; c Ratio of treeless burned area
relative to the treed burned area. Legend represents modified Mann-Kendall’s Tau coefficient with negative trends in green,
positive trends in red, and gray no significant trends in the data series (p < 0.05). Numbers within each province indicate the
breakpoint year in the data series for the corresponding variable. De Urbieta et al. 2019.

Fig. 5 Trends of burned area (1980–
2013) by province for a Pinus species
(left maps), and b Quercus species
(right maps). Legend represents
modified Mann-Kendall’s Tau
coefficient. Dots indicate the presence
of each species according to EGIF fire
database. De Urbieta et al. 2019

Fig. 6 Trends of fire risk factors for
Peninsular Spain and the Balearic
Islands (1980–2013). A Summer (JJAS)
mean FWI and P95 FWI. b LULC
changes (%) based on CORINE Land
Cover (CLC) maps for forest and semi
natural, agricultural, and artificial
areas. c Average number of terrestrial
and aerial fire suppression resources
invested per 100 ha burned for fires ≥
50 ha. A loess smoothing line is shown
for significant trends (p < 0.05). De
Urbieta et al. 2019

Fig. 7 Trends of fire risk factors by province (1980–2013). a Summer (JJAS) mean
FWI. b P95 FWI; LULC changes (%) from CORINE Land Cover (CLC) maps of 1990–
2012 for c forest and semi natural, d agricultural, and e artificial areas. f Average
number of aerial suppression resources used per 100 ha burned. Numbers
within each province indicate the breakpoint year in the data series for the
corresponding variable. De Urbieta et al. 2019

Figure 1 from Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern
Europe and Pacific western USA
Urbieta, others & Moreno et al 2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 114013 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114013
Tres escalas
EU
Provincias (ES)
Regiones
Todo EUMED
Provincia
Región
EUMed

Models of #Fires >1ha Sig. + relationship in 33/42 provinces  R2: 0.12-0.55

Models of Aburned Sig. + relationship in 27/42 provinces  R2: 0.10-0.60
(fires >1ha)

Models of #Fires >100ha Sig. + relationship in 23/42 provinces  R2: 0.10-0.55

Figure 2 from Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern
Europe and Pacific western USA
Urbieta et al 2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 114013 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114013

Figure 3 from Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA
Itziar R Urbieta et al 2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 114013 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114013
NFNLF
AB

Figure 4 from Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA
Itziar R Urbieta et al 2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 114013 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114013
FWI
-SPEI08
+SPEI03

Fires and FWI in Europe
From Urbieta et al. 2015

Medium scale
EUMED PWUSA
Small scale
A) B)
EUMED PWUSA
C) D)
Fig. 4
R
2
of
the
models
R
2
of
the
models
R
2
of
the
models
R
2
of
the
models

Figure 50. Burnt scars produced by forest fires in the Mediterranean region during the fire season 2007. From JRC ST Report 8

Fire danger indices and megafires risk
Fig. 11. Number of very large fires (>500 ha) and the fire danger index FWI in
Greece, during the megafire event of 2007.
From San Miguel, Moreno and Camia 2013 FORECO

EFFIS FWI
24 Junio
1 Julio 15 Julio
22 Julio
5 Agosto 16 Agosto
Data from EFFIS, JRC

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
6/1/2022 7/1/2022 8/1/2022
Fire Weather Index (FWI)
Muy alto
Extremo
Fuente. EFFIS

Fires in
2003
FWI July
Portugal
Spain
Hazard magnitude and fire ocurrence relationships are not simple Source: JRC EFFIS 2003

De Bedia et al 2013 Climatic Change
Delta Multi-Model Mean (2071-2100)

Seasonal Severity Rating in 21st century
From Bedia et al. Climatic Change 2013
Change in mean Seasonal Severity Rating based on 5 regional
models and SRES A1B during the 21st century

De Bedia et al. 2015 Agr. For Met
Biomes
FWI estación incendios Log AB

De Bedia et al 2015 Agr For Met
Log AB f (FWIei)
D log AB f(D FWIei)

De Bedia et al. 2015 Agric. For Met

Future fires in Iberia
Source: Trigo et al. 2014 FUME
Ensembles of projected mean burned area (BA) for the period 1981-2075 in the four Iberian clusters. The solid line represents the mean of all 16
considered simulations. The upper dashed line represents the mean of the simulations that use fixed reference climatology, while the lower dashed
line represents the mean of the simulations using moving reference climatology. Darker and lighter shades represent ensemble uncertainties of the
previous simulations and where obtained using inter-quartiles. A 25-year moving average was applied to all series.

Future area burned (% change) in EUMED using SPEI index with increasing level of global warming based on
stationary (SM) or non-stationary (NSM) models and a suite of future climate simulations (RCM, ALL). From
Turco et al. 2018.
Future fires in the Mediterranean

Changes in mean annual burned fraction (BF) in MPI-ESM-LR simulations related to present date. (a) Relative changes between future (2081–2100) and present date (1981–2000) in
experiments FUL_EFF (BFfuture/BFpresent-day 1); (b to d) Relative factorial effect (RFE, equation (1) and Table 2) for annual burned area fraction in future. Only significant changes (p <
0.05) are presented using Mann-Whitney U test. Areas with no change or nonsignificant change are in white. Areas with greater than 50% agricultural land were excluded (grey). From:
Wu et al. 2015. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Conclusiones
• Los incendios son parte del Sistema Tierra, han modelado su vegetación
desde hace millones de años, incluyendo la nuestra
• Existe una estrecha relación entre el clima, la vegetación y los incendios. El
hombre interfiere sobre esta relación
• El calentamiento global incrementará los índices de peligro meteorológico,
al tiempo que causará otros efectos sobre la vegetación
• Un clima más severo implica mayor probabilidad de incendios, de más alta
intensidad y mayores tamaños
• Tenemos que construir una cultura del riesgo de incendio. La sociedad
española sigue sin estar preparada y espera que los incendios se apaguen
• Bajo las nuevas condiciones eso no será posible, por lo que urge actuar
sobre los paisajes, eliminando combustible y haciéndolos más resistentes al
fuego

José M. Moreno Fuego, paisajes, vulnerabilidad,..
¡Muchas gracias !

C22-2_2_Los incendios forestales en España en un contexto de cambio climático

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C22-2_2_Los incendios forestales en España en un contexto de cambio climático