IUKWC Workshop November 2016: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security - Welcome and Introduction - Alan Jenkins

1. Research Needs and Opportunities
for India – UK Water Science
Alan Jenkins

2. BECAUSE: WATER IS FUNDAMENTAL
TO HUMANITY AND THE
ENVIRONMENT
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3. WATER RESOURCES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE
ADDITIONAL DEMANDS THAT AN INCREASING POPULATION WILL PLACE ON THIS
FINITE RESOURCE.
WATER AVAILABILITY FOR FOOD, HEALTH AND SANITATION AND INDUSTRY IS
FURTHER CONSTRAINED BY POLLUTION.
ADDITIONALLY THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS ON EXTREMES (FLOODS AND DROUGHTS).
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Water security

4. UK Hydrometric Monitoring

5. Rainfall data

6. Water Resource Status – UK River Flows
November 2011 December 2015

7. How to characterise drought?
SPI: Standardized Precipitation Index
SPEI: Standardized Precipitation and
Evapotranspiration Index
SSI: Standardized Streamflow Index
SGI: Standardized Groundwater Index
Svensson et al. Water Resources Research, forthcoming
Standardized Indicators allow us to
compare between places and seasons

8. Understanding drought processes
Correlation between winter streamflow and
Sea-surface temperatures
Understanding drought processes to improve
monitoring, modelling and prediction
Barker et al. 2016, Hydrol. Earth. Sys. Sci
Understanding drought propagation from
Precipitation to streamflow
Svensson et al. 2016, In prep.

9. Estimation of the T-year flood in UK
CEHFloodEstimation
Handbook
Design a bridge
Size a culvert
Plan and assess flood defences
https://fehweb.ceh.ac.uk/
WHY? HOW?

10. Return period of Dec 2015 to Jan 2016 floods
Station name Flow (m3/s) Return period
Eden at Sheepmount 1700 340
Lune at Caton 1740 150
Tyne at Bywell 1730 140
1700 m3/s
Return period
 340 years

11. New climate change guidance
Adapting to Climate Change: Advice for Flood and
Coastal Erosion Risk Management Authorities
Environment Agency (updated March 2016)
Climate change estimate
for peak river flow in
Northumbria
2020s 2050s 2080s
Lower 5% 5% 10%
Central 10% 15% 20%
Higher central 15% 20% 25%
Upper 20% 30% 50%
High++ 20% 35% 65%

12. Water resources assessment - GWAVA
Monthly/daily water discharge
Monthly/daily pollutant levels
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Climate
Water demand estimation
•Abstractions & return flows
•Artificial water transfers
•Human population
•Livestock
•Bore-wells
•Irrigation & cropping
Rainfall runoff model
•Elevation & river network
•Lakes, reservoirs, wetlands
•Vegetation, soil type
•Climate
Pollutants in surface water
•Agriculture
•Sewage effluent loading
•River bed morphology
Water resources
availability

13. GWAVA: outputs
Changes in water stress for different Hadley Centre climate models
HadRM2 HadCM3 PRECIS
2020s
2050s
> 0.25
< -0.25
HadRM2 HadCM3 PRECIS
HadRM2 HadCM3 PRECIS
2020s
2050s
> 0.25
< -0.25
HadRM2 HadCM3 PRECIS
Increased stress Decreased stress No change
2020s
2050s

14. LINKING TO ECOLOGY

15. Hydrological Outlook

16. Issued on 09.11.2016 using data to the end of October 2016
November2016
Period: From November 2016
Shaded areas show principal aquifers
SUMMARY
Following an exceptionally dry
October across the majority of the UK,
the outlook for November is for river
flows to be below normal to normal
across the UK, with below normal
flows more likely in the south and
east. Below normal to normal flows
are likely to persist across the south
and east of the UK over the next three
to six months. Groundwater levels are
expected to be within the normal
range, except in areas of the southern
Chalk which are likely to be below
normal to normal over the next three
months.
River flows in the
southern and
eastern parts of the
UK are more likely
to be below normal
than normal over
the next one to
three months,
whilst over the
next three to six
months flows are
likely to be
normal to below
normal
River flows in
the northern
and western
parts of the UK
are likely to be
below normal
to normal
throughout
November
Groundwater levels in
parts of the southern
Chalk are likely to be
below normal to normal
over the next three
months
UK Hydrological Outlook

18. Extended flood outlook

19. COSMOS-UK: our network
Currently 31 sites,
but plans and
funding to expand
to 55 sites
throughout the UK

20. Real time soil moisture data

21. COSMOS India
Installation Planned
COSMOS operating
Design and development of a cosmic ray soil moisture measuring system

22. Royal Society - Current Hot Topics?
Drive to develop the scientific basis on which to
base actions to guarantee future water security.
• New science to understand the changing earth
system (scale??)
• New modelling tools to capture the
interconnected forcers and threats and their
societal implications
• Extrapolation of models to data sparse areas
• New monitoring systems to warn of critical
environmental changes

23. RS - Pressing Research Needs
• More physics-based approaches, incorporating
land management, covering the whole flow
duration curve and incorporating water quality.
• Non-stationarity
• Data assimilation techniques for hydrological
models

24. The role of hydro-climate services?
• Adapting to change and managing risk –
developing the governance mechanisms,
management strategies and policy tools
needed to reduce the risk of water threats,
design adaptive strategies and take advantage
of economic opportunities.
• Ensuring water futures – people, agriculture
and industry globally could face water scarcity
by 2050 - Jobs and trade in food and goods
rely on access to an adequate supply of water
and water-related services