Talk by Gerard de Groot (Tilburg University) on Disaster Risk Reduction for ISCRAM summer school 2011

1. Disaster Risk Reduction

2. 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 2 HISTORY OF DISASTER MANEGEMENT Yokohoma strategy and plan for a safer world (May 1994) “Disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness and relief are four elements which contribute to and gain from the implementation of sustainable development policies. These elements, along with environmental protection and sustainable development, are closely interrelated.” “Disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness are better than disaster response in achieving the goals and objectives of the Decade. Disaster response alone is not sufficient, as it yields only temporary results at a very high cost.”

3. 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 3 KEY ASSUMPTION core assumption disaster risk reduction (DRR) Disaster risk reduction is based upon the assumption that (natural) disasters will have a long-term negative impact on the development of underdeveloped countries. HOWEVER there are critical notes Aghion and Howitt (“Endogenous growth theory”, 1998) argue that disasters tend to have a positive long term spin-off effects on development due to technological improvements. The technological improvement can be explained from reconstruction activities.

4. 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 4 A PILOT STUDY IN NORTHERN KENYA objectives of the study The objective of the study is to quantify the impact of disaster risk reduction interventions in Kenya and determine the cost-effectiveness of long term DRR compared to short term emergency relief and rehabilitation. Moreover, the study will be a starting point of a future study on the qualitative long term impact of DRR intervention and to determine future direction. Cost-benefit analysis requires information on long term impact of disasters!

5. The Black Swan A black swan has three major characteristics: It is anoutlier, thereforeverydifficult to predict Itcarriesan extreme impact It has retrospective (thoughnotprospective) predictability Examples: the 9/11 attacks, the Dutch hunger winter, the stock market crash of 1929, NOT the present drought in the Horn of Africa Yet we act as if the phenomenon does notexist! (Source: NassimTaleb – The Black Swan. The impact of the highlyimprobable, 2007) 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 5

6. Disaster in the Netherlands: Hunger winter Short (sixmonthsbefore the end of Second World War) butsevere Affectedlarge, healthy and stablepopulationgroup Was documentedprecisely Ended as abruptly as itstarted Killed some 20,000 people (out of a population of 3.5 million) 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 6

7. Sampling Startingpopulation: 5,425 baby’s born in a hospital in Amsterdam Bornfrom 1 November 1943 till 28 februari 1947 Excluded: earlybirths, twins 160 baby’s werenotregisteredwith the municipality 99 baby’s couldnotbetraced Deceasedbefore start of study in 1994: 10% 164 peoplerefused to particpate Twocontrolgroups of 650 baby’s Final sample: 2,414 Howrepresentative is the sample? 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 7

8. The negative impact of malnutrition, 50years later Heartdiseases Lungdiseases Stress Diabetes Causalrelationbetween disaster and impact? What are appropriateinterventions? 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 8

9. 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 9 CHANGING CONSENSUS ON DISASTER RISK APPROACH 1950s – 1960s: disaster = interruption of development process emergency relief as sole disaster response limited disaster preparedness 1970s – 1980s: development strategies included disaster risk mitigation disaster risk mitigation mainly technical 1990s – to date: disaster risk reduction mainstreamed in development strategies technical mitigation combined with strengthening of social structures increasing coping capacities and decreasing vulnerability

10. 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 10 HOW TO DEFINE DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT (DRM) relation vulnerability and coping capacity there is no uniform definition of coping; definitions can be classified into two groups [1] coping can be considered as an ex post disaster activity indicating that coping capacities do not effect vulnerability [2] coping can be affiliated with both ex ante and ex post disaster action: coping aimed at decreasing vulnerability and coping related to containment of possible impacts of a hazard

11. 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 11 “DISASTER PRESURE AND RELEASE”-MODEL developed by Blaikie et al explains disaster risks from a macro perspective where vulnerability is defined as: “… characteristic of a person or group and their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover form the impact of a natural hazard.” “At risk, second edition: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability, and disasters”, Wisner et al., 2003

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13. 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 13 HOW TO DEFINE DISASTER RISK definition UNISDR The systematic development and application of policies, strategies and practices to minimise vulnerabilities and disaster risks and throughout a society, to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) adverse impact of hazards, within he broad context of sustainable development. source: “Living With Risk: A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives”, UNISDR

14. 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 14 HOW TO DEFINE DISASTER RISK relation disaster risks and hazards D = disaster IH = total impact hazard IHx = total hazard on demography, economy, environment, social structures R = disaster risk

15. 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 15 HOW TO DEFINE DISASTER RISK coping as ex ante and ex post disaster activity CEAC = ex ante disaster coping capacity aimed at limitation of impact CEAV = ex ante disaster coping capacity aimed at vulnerability reduction CEP = ex post disaster coping capacity of population at stake FGV = factors generating vulnerability FEV = factors enhancing vulnerability H = (magnitude of the) hazard IH = total impact hazard V = vulnerability of population at stake

16. Drought Cycle Management (DCM) Model DCM stresses the need for continuity between activities aimed at development, relief and rehabilitation and distinguishes between four stages: Normal: sufficient rain, focus on mitigation activities Alert and alarm: First signs of drought, focus on preparation Relief: food and water shortages result in hunger and death, focus on emergency relief Recovery: reconstruction, focus on restocking, capacity building, infrastructure, natural resource management DCM model aims to increase resilience and coping capacity of communities and households to reduce disaster risk THIS SHOULD PROVIDE YOU WITH A FIRST LINK TO YOUR CHALLENGE: COME UP WITH THE UNDISCOVERED SOLUTION 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 16

17. The sampling frame Fourdistrictswereselected, pairingdistrictswith high and low levels of external disaster management intervention (Garissa, Marsabit, Samburu, Wajir) Secondary data werecollectedfor district profiles to construct a district vulnerability index Primary data werecollected at households (extendedfamiles): 50 foreach district, basedon a standard questionnaire How representative is our own sample? Four different models werespecified PROBIT techniqueswereused to estimate relations between variables 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 17

18. Measuringvulnerability Vulnerability is a multidimensional factor, embodying the combinedeffects of unsafeconditions. We derivedproxies at the district level for the fourelements of the PAR model relating to: Physical environment (weighteddroughtfrequency) Localeconomy(humanpoverty index) Social relations (populationgrowth) Public actions(access to health, school enrollment) 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 18

19. Measuringhousehold disaster risk The household level foodconsumption deficit representsanidealdependentvariable, but is extremelydifficult to measure. Four coping mechanisms have been used as proxies: Liquidation of productiveassets Foodconsumptionadjustments Callingoncommunity level facilities Relianceonemergencyrelief 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 19

20. Ex-post coping capacity of households Independent variable approximated by number of household characteristics: Asset ownership Proportion of economically active members Dependency ratio Educational attainment Gender and age of household heads 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 20

21. Strengthening ex-ante coping capacity applied in DCM model Households can prepare themselves against adverse impacts through different actions such as: Income diversification Livestock diversification Water reserve capacity Use of common pastures 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 21

22. The impact of droughtcycle management Three out of four indicators of household disaster risk decreasewhenhouseholds have coping capacities as stimulated and reinforcedby the DCM model (ex ante): Sustainablelivestock management systems Incomediversfication Water conservation Community level safety net structures (e.g. Credit) Reservinggrazing areas couldnotbeshown as a significant coping strategy 17-8-2011 22:40 Cordaid Presentation 22