My presentation to the Birmingham Committee on Foreign Relations, outlining the difficulties with current climate negotiations.

1. The Failure of Copenhagen What next for global energy and climate negotiations? Iain Murray MA(Oxon) MBA DIC Birmingham Committee on Foreign Relations April 20, 2010

12. Changes in Net GHG Emissions 1 2000-2006 from 17 Major Economies 1 Includes emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons, and perfluorocarbons, as well as emissions and removals of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide from land-use, land-use change and forestry activities. ** No UNFCCC data available for time period; 2001 through 2005 IEA data used. Sources: UNFCCC, 2008 National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Formats and IEA Online Energy Services.

13. The Truth About Kyoto

14. How Expensive is the Gore Plan?

16. Massive Effort Needed to Meet Emissions Goals Source: Clarke, L. et al. 2006. Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios . Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Cumulative global emissions reductions ranging from about 1,100 to 3,700 gigatons of CO 2 equivalent would be need over the course of the century to meet a range of atmospheric concentration goals (450 to 750 ppm). 1st GtC Avoided CO 2 Emissions (GtCO 2 /yr) Cumulative Emissions Cumulative Avoided Emissions Unconstrained Emissions Scenario CO 2 Stabilization Scenario ≈ 1,100 to 3,700 gigatons of cumulative CO 2 emission reductions will be needed to meet a range of stabilization scenarios (≈750 ppm to 450 ppm). Time 0

17. How Big is One Gigaton* of CO 2 ? *Gigaton = 10 9 Metric Tons Install 1,000 sequestration sites like Norway’s Sleipner project (1 MtCO2/year)—Only 3 sequestration projects of this scale exist today. Geologic Sequestration Build 273 “zero-emission” 500 MW coal-fired power plants—Equivalent to about 7% of current global installed coal-fired generating capacity of 2 million MW. Coal-Fired Power Plants Convert a barren area of about 4,800,000 km 2 —Equivalent to about 20 times the size of the United Kingdom. Biomass Fuels from Plantations Install capacity to produce 273 times the current global solar PV generation instead of new coal-fired power plants without CCS. Solar Photovoltaics Actions that Provide One Gigaton CO 2 / Year of Mitigation or Offsets Technology Convert a barren area of about 900,000 km 2 —Equivalent to more that the size of Germany and France combined. CO 2 Storage in New Forest Install capacity to produce 14 times the current global wind generation capacity (about 74 GW) instead of new coal-fired power plants without CCS—Equivalent to more than 1 million 1 MW wind turbines. Wind Energy Deploy 273 million new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of 20 mpg (or at 14 km/L instead of 7 km/L). Efficiency Build 136 new nuclear power plants of 1 GW each instead of new coal-fired power plants without CCS—Equivalent to about one third of existing worldwide nuclear capacity of 375 GW. Nuclear

18. 2050 Reference Emissions 2050 Annex I Reference Emissions (18.2 Gt) Annex I Countries Non-Annex I Countries 2050 Non-Annex I Reference Emissions (32.4 Gt) Annex I Emissions at 20% 2000 Emissions Annex I Emissions at 50% 2000 Emissions -100% ( -18.2 Gt ) -84% ( -15.2 Gt ) -59% ( -10.7 Gt ) -62% ( -20.1 Gt ) -71% ( -23.1 Gt ) -85% ( -27.6 Gt ) 1 Includes fossil and other industrial CO 2 . 2 50% of 2000 global GHG emissions equals 12.3 Gt. 3 Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group ( i.e ., Annex I or Non-Annex I). Source: Climate Change Science Program . 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Model results). 2050 Annex I Emissions (0 Gt) 2050 Non-Annex I Emissions (12.3Gt) 2050 Annex I Emissions (3.0 Gt) 2050 Non-Annex I Emissions (9.3 Gt) 2050 Annex I Emissions (7.4 Gt) 2050 Non-Annex I Emissions (4.9 Gt) Annex I Emissions at “0” 2000 2000 To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO 2 Emissions by 2050, Need Significant Reductions from Developing Countries Annual Gigaton CO 2 and Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference 3 CO 2 , Emissions (Gt CO 2 /yr)

22. CO 2 Emissions (Gt CO 2 /yr) Important Transitions in Emitting Countries Over the Coming Decades: CO 2 Emissions 1 by Region - 2000 & 2050 About 80 to 90% of the expected increase in GHG emissions between now and 2050 will come from developing countries, primarily China, India & SE Asia. 1 Includes Fossil and other industrial CO 2 . Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Results). Non-Annex I Regions Annex I Regions

23. Business-as-Usual CO 2 Emission Projections by Region Data derived from Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program , Battelle Memorial Institute, 2007.

24. 2050 Reference Emissions Annex I Countries Non-Annex I Countries Annex I Emissions at 20% 2000 Emissions Annex I Emissions at 50% 2000 Emissions -100% -84% -59% -62% -71% -85% 1 Measured as MMTCO 2 per million people, excluding LULUCF. 2 50% of 2000 global CO 2 emissions equals 12.3 Gt. 3 Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group ( i.e ., Annex I or Non-Annex I). Source: Climate Change Science Program . 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Model results). Annex I Emissions at “0” To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO 2 Emissions by 2050, Per Capita Emissions from Developing Countries Must Go Down Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference 3 2000 Annex I Reference Emissions/ Capita (12.7) 2000 Non-Annex I Reference Emissions/ Capita (4.4) 2050 Annex I Emissions/ Capita (0) 2050 Non-Annex I Emissions/ Capita (1.7) 2050 Annex I Emissions/ Capita (2.1) 2050 Non-Annex I Emissions/ Capita (1.3) 2050 Annex I Emissions/ Capita (5.2) 2050 Non-Annex I Emissions/ Capita (0.7) CO 2 , Emissions per Capita (MMTCO2 per million pop.) 2000 2000

25. Scale of Biomass Land Area Land Use Scenario ≈ 550 ppmv Source: Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program , Battelle Memorial Institute, 2007. Land Use Scenario with 0.5% annual agricultural activity growth. By 2050, land use required for bioenergy crops may account for approximately 4 to 5% of total land use; by 2095 approximately 20%.

27. Reality of an Energy-Starved World