Empfohlen
Empfohlen
Weitere ähnliche Inhalte
Was ist angesagt?
Was ist angesagt? (20)
Ähnlich wie Regional Perspective - Asia - Pathways with 1.5oC Global Warming in Asia
Ähnlich wie Regional Perspective - Asia - Pathways with 1.5oC Global Warming in Asia (20)
Mehr von ipcc-media
Mehr von ipcc-media (20)
Kürzlich hochgeladen
Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)
Regional Perspective - Asia - Pathways with 1.5oC Global Warming in Asia
- 1. IPCC Special Report on 1.5oC regional perspectives - Asia Mikiko Kainuma Institute for Global Environmental Strategies （IGES) 5th Dec. 2018 at COP24 WMO/IPCC Pavilion Pathways with 1.5oC Global Warming in Asia
- 2. Where are we now? • Already seeing consequences for people, nature and livelihoods • At current rate, would reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 • Past emissions alone do not commit the world to 1.5°C Ashley Cooper / Aurora Photos
- 3. Greenhouse gas emissions pathways • Limiting warming to 1.5°C would require changes on an unprecedented scale Deep emissions cuts in all sectors A range of technologies Behavioural changes Increased investment in low carbon options Peter Essick / Aurora Photos
- 4. Greenhouse gas emissions pathways • Progress in renewables would need to be mirrored in other sectors • We would need to start taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere • Implications for food security, ecosystems and biodiversity Peter Essick / Aurora Photos
- 5. SPM3a|Global emissions pathway characteristics
- 6. SPM3b|Characteristics of four illustrative model pathways No CCS Focusing on Sustainability Middle of the Road High dependency on BECCS
- 7. 60 40 20 0 Asian countries without the Middle East, Japan and Former Soviet Union states Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and Africa Reforming Economies of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union. OECD 90 + EU SSP1 Baseline P2 Scenario (1.5oC Scenario) Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions in SSP1 and P2 Scenarios by Region 2005 2025 2050 2075 2100 GHGemissions(GtCO2eq/year) 60 40 20 0 2005 2025 2050 2075 2100 Figures prepared by Fujimori from SR1.5DB Asia Asia P4 is a scenario with high dependency on BECCS.
- 8. 0 50 100 150 200 250 SSP1 Baseline P2 Scenario (1.5oC Scenario) Primary Energy Consumption in SSP1 and P2 Scenarios in Asia 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Figures prepared by Fujimori from SR1.5DB Coal w/CCS Coal w/o CCS Gas w/ccs Gas w/o ccs Oil Nuclear Biomass Geothermal Hydro Solar Wind Wind Solar Hydro BiomassCoal Gas Oil EJ/Year
- 9. Ashley Cooper/ Aurora Photos
- 10. Characteristics of Asia • Growing economy • Rapid urbanization and industrialization • Rich in natural resources • Diversity: Economy, Natural resources, Culture, Ways of living, etc. • Living in harmony; co-existence with nature
- 11. Challenges in Asia • Avoiding lock-in carbon–based assets • Managing land-use • Enhancing technology development and deployment • Mobilizing finance towards the 1.5oC world • Getting advantage of synergies with sustainable development
- 12. 21 Nov. 2018, Jakarta 20 Mar. 2014, Pataya 2014 2036 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 InstalledCapacity(MW) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 2014 2036 Municipal Solid Waste Biomass Biogas Energy Drop Hydro Wod Solar RE Target in Power Development Plan 2015, Ministry of Energy, Thailand Solar Wind Hydro Energy Drop Biogas Biomass Municipal Solid Waste ‘Just, Harmonious and Sustainable Society Through Enhanced Decentralisation’ Objective of the 12th FYP (2018-2023） of Bhutan Royal Government of Bhutan, 2018 Emission reduction target will be reached mainly through 2 sectors: Land use, Land use change and forestry: 60%; and Energy sector: 38% in Indonesia (Boer, 2018) Jan. 2018
- 13. Thank you very much for your kind attention! “Live simply so that others may simply live.” ― Mahatma Gandhi
- 14. Q&ADiscussions
- 15. Greenhouse gas emissions pathways • To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2 emissions fall by about 45% by 2030 (from 2010 levels) • To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2 emissions would need to reach ‘net zero’ around 2050 • Reducing non-CO2 emissions would have direct and immediate health benefits Compared to 20% for 2°C Compared to around 2075 for 2°C Gerhard Zwerger-Schoner / Aurora Photos
Hinweis der Redaktion
- I will explain pathways with 1.5C global warming in Asia. Climate change is already affecting people, ecosystems and livelihoods in Asia as well. Many Asian countries locate in tropical and subtropical areas, so temperature increase affects a lot. In Japan, highest temperatures in recorded history are observed in many cities this year. The strength of typhoons and tropical cyclones are increasing. Sea level rise affects many areas in Asia.
- ------- So it is very important to start now for decarcarbonization.
- This figure shows the pathways limiting global warming to 1.5C with no or limited overshoot as well as with a high overshoot. CO2 are reduced to net zero globally around 2050. The evolution of anthropogenic net emissions of CO2, and total emissions of methane, black carbon, and nitrous oxide. Four illustrative model pathways, P1, P2, P3 and P4, are mainly considered in the report.
- These four pathways have different characteristics. P1 has no CCS. P2 focuses on sustainability. P3 is a middle of the road scenario. P4 is a scenario with high dependency on BECCS. Different mitigation strategies can achieve the net emissions reductions that would be required to follow a pathway that limit global warming to 1.5°C. All pathways use Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), but the amount varies across pathways, as do the relative contributions of Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and removals in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sectors. This has implications for the emissions and several other pathway characteristics
- The reference scenarios behind the P1 to P4 scenarios are Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, so-called SSP scenarios. I will explain the pathways using P2 scenario. SSP scenarios have 5 different scenarios from SSP1 to SSP5. Among SSP scenarios, SSP1 is a scenario most close to sustainable development, and its emissions are the lowest among SSP scenarios. The left hand figure shows the global GHG emission in the SSP1 based reference scenario by region. You can see the share of GHG emissions around the year 2040 in Asia is large. The right hand figure shows the global GHG emissions in the P2 scenario. GHG emissions in P2 scenario decrease in all regions.
- Although GHG emissions will decrease in P2 scenario drastically, the primary energy consumption will not decreased so much because of the increase of renewable energies. The left hand figure shows the primary energy consumption in the reference scenario and the right hand figure shows the primary energy consumption in the P2 scenario in Asia. You can see the large share of coal in the baseline scenario. This is decreased to almost zero in the 1.5C scenario. The CO2 emissions from the power sector will be reduced mainly by RE. Reduction of primary energy consumption is achieved by the reduction of energy service demand by energy-saving technologies, developing low carbon cities, managing transportation systems and so on.
- The feasibility for 1.5C consistent pathways can be considered from 6 aspects: economic, technological, institutional, socio-cultural, environmental and ecological, and geophysical aspects. There are many indicators to assess the feasibility. For example, Cost-effectiveness; distributional effects, employment and productivity and enhancement potential. The success of the transition towards a low-carbon future depends on the costs and benefits being distributed across society in a fair and transparent manner. This is especially important in Asian regions where currently many inequalities exist. It is important to design effective policies to prevent or manage distributional issues in the course of transition to a low-carbon economy progresses. Financial support for energy efficiency does not always reach low-income groups. These need to be considered.
- The main characteristics of Asia is, first, it has growing economy. There are many countries under development. It means there are many opportunities to investing new technologies and avoiding lock-ins during the course of development. Second issue is rapid urbanization and industrialization. There are many megacities in Asia and they are increasing. Cities are places where changes are happening. They could be low-carbon or high-carbon. It is very important to lead these cities towards low or zero carbon. Such movement has been already happening. Industrialization is one of keys for development. Industrial sector is a sector that is very difficult to be decarbonized. Now lots of low carbon technologies have been developing. The transfer of such technologies is also a key for decarbonization in Asia. Asia is rich in natural resources: plenty of hydro, solar, wind, and biomass energies. We can make use of them. At the same time, there are also vast reserves of coal. The key to decrease coal power plants is to create new jobs for the coal miners. There are lots of diversities in Asia in various aspects such as Economy, Natural resources, culture and ways of living. There is a need to live in low carbon with better living in terms of water access, energy access and better health care. I think and I hope, Asians are looking for the living ways in harmony, like self-sufficiency in Thailand, living ways for low carbon.
- At the same time there are many challenges. Many countries in Asia are under development. There are many opportunities for no or low carbon development. However these sometimes costs much in the short term. In the long-run the costs can be recovered by the saved energy and saved lives. Sometimes it is difficult to invest in no or low carbon systems. If high-carbon infrastructures are installed, it could be locked-in for years. There are plenty of forests in Asia. Someties CO2 are emitted from forests fires. Lots of attempts have been made to keep and increase forests. They are also sources for bioenergy. If not well managed, there could be adverse impacts on food security and biodiversity. Enhancing technology development and deployment are happening everywhere in the world, but suitable technologies for local use need to be developed and deployed. Initiatives from local communities are very important. To realize such challenges, mobilizing finance is necessitate. About 0.6% of GDP is said to be necessary as additional investments in the world. This corresponds to about 2.5% of savings. It could happen that such amounts of investment are mobilized to low carbon systems. Clear vision and appropriate guidance and support from governments are required to redirect the investment. There are lots of synergies and tradeoffs between low carbon actions and sustainable development. Especially there are synergies among health impacts, industry development, sustainable cities, responsible consumption and production, life below water and life on land. Asia has lots of opportunities to make use of such synergies. These need to be considered totally as system transition.
- Asia is diverse. Many things are happening in Asia. Urbanization and more traffics. Investment in renewable energies. Forest management for CO2 emissions reduction. New ways of living in harmony with oneself, with community, with nature and with culture and traditions such as Bhutan. --------- end ----------- Just Society - where every citizen has equitable access to resources and opportunities to pursue and realize individual and national aspirations. Harmonious Society - where every individual lives in harmony with oneself; with community; with nature; and with culture and traditions. Sustainable Society - A Society able to sustain its social, economic and environmental development needs. settlements.
- Reduction of non-CO2 emissions such as CH4, N2O, aerosol, black carbon has direct health benefits.