The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Nana Ama Browne KLUTSE, University of Ghana,

1. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
9 August 2021
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
5 November 2021
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
Regional Information - Africa
Nana Ama Browne KLUTSE, University of Ghana, nklutse@ug.edu.gh
Wilfran MOUFOUMA-OKIA, World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Bamba SYLLA, African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS) with
thanks to IPCC Lead Authors

2. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS IN PHYSICS
ALL 3 IN CLIMATE
Syukuro Manabe and Klaus Hasselmann - “the physical
modelling of Earth’s climate, quantifying variability and
reliably predicting global warming”
Giorgio Parisi - “for the discovery of the interplay of
disorder and fluctuations in physical systems from
atomic to planetary scales”
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3. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
THE BOILING
FROG
Covid-19
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Pictures from the web

4. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Stockhause, M., Juckes, M., Chen, R., Moufouma Okia, W., Pirani, A., Waterfield, T., Xing, X. and Edmunds, R., 2019. Data Distribution Centre
Support for the IPCC Sixth Assessment. Data Science Journal, 18(1), p.20. DOI: http://doi.org/10.5334/dsj-2019-020 3

5. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Outline
• IPCC Sixth Assessment Cycle
• Key messages
 Where are we with the state of the
climate?
 What is there for Africa/West Africa?
 Observed changes in extremes/CIDs and
their attribution?
 Projected changes in extremes/CIDs:
Changes in frequency and intensity?
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6. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Statistics– Working Group I Contribution
234 lead authors
517 contributing
authors
66 countries (28%
women, 72% men,
30% new authors)
8% African
authors
14,000 reviewed
articles
78,007 comments
from around the
world
Contribution of Working Group I to the
Sixth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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7. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
African Lead authors and Reviewers
1. Mrs Nana Ama Browne KLUTSE GHANA
2. Mrs Fatima DRIOUECH MOROCCO
3. Mrs Aida NIANG-DIONGUE SENEGAL
4. Mrs Rondriolana BARIMALALA MADAGASCAR
5. Mr Francois ENGELBRECHT SOUTH AFRICA
6. Mr Ousmane NDIAYE SENEGAL
7. Mr Joseph MUTEMI KENYA
8. Mr Pedro SCHEEL MONTEIRO SOUTH AFRICA
9. Mr Stephen SYAMPUGANI ZAMBIA
10. Mr Noureddine YASSA ALGERIA
11. Mr Wilfried POKAM BA CAMEROON
12. Mr Arona DIEDHIOU SENEGAL
13. Mr Bruce HEWITSON SOUTH AFRICA
14. Mr Wafae BADI MOROCCO
15. Mr Izidine PINTO MOZAMBIQUE
16. Mr Mouhamadou Bamba SYLLA SENEGAL
17. Mr Rashyd ZAABOUL MOROCCO
18. Mr Benjamin LAMPTEY GHANA
19. Mr Hyacinth NNAMCHI NIGERIA
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8. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
It is indisputable that human activities are causing climate
change, making extreme climate events, including heat waves,
heavy rainfall, and droughts, more frequent and severe
• Rapid and widespread changes have occurred in the atmosphere,
oceans, cryosphere and biosphere.
• Climate change is already affecting all regions of the world in
many ways.
• The total human-induced increase in the Earth's surface
temperature between 1850-1900 and 2010-2019 is 0.8°C to 1.3°C.
Ashley Cooper / Aurora Photos
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Where are we with the state of the climate?

9. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Africa Information in the IPCC AR6 WG1
Regional chapters
- Chapter 10: Linking global to regional climate change
- Chapter 11: Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate
- Chapter 12: Climate change information for regional impact and for risk assessment
- Atlas: analyses and assessments of regional changes in mean climate
- Interactive Atlas: A novel tool for flexible spatial and temporal analyses of the
observed and projected climate change information
- Regional Fact Sheets
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10. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
CH11: EXTREMES
Fig. SPM.3
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Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
CH11: EXTREMES
Fig. SPM.3
Human-induced climate change has contributed to increases in agricultural and ecological
droughts in some regions due to evapotranspiration increases (medium confidence). 10

12. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
CH11: EXTREMES
Projected changes in extremes as function of global warming
o Many changes in the climate system become larger in direct relation to
increasing global warming.
o They include increases in the frequency and intensity of hot extremes,
marine heatwaves, and heavy precipitation, agricultural and ecological
droughts in some regions, and the proportion of intense tropical
cyclones.
 There will be an increasing occurrence of some extreme events
unprecedented in the observational record with additional global warming,
even at 1.5°C of global warming.
 Projected percentage changes in frequency are higher for rarer events (high
confidence).
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13. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
CH11: EXTREMES
Every additional 0.5°C of global warming causes
clearly discernible increases (high confidence)
Fig. SPM.6
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Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis

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Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Africa - projected change in dangerous heat stress is stronger
Figure 12.4
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Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Figure 12.4
Africa - projected change in droughts is stronger
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Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Figure 12.4
Africa - projected change in extreme sea level rise is stronger
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Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Synthesis of the CID changes
projected by 2050 (2041-2060)
with high confidence, relative
to reference period (1995-
2014), together with the sign
of change.
Information is taken from the
CID tables in Section 12.4.
Figure 12.11
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Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis

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Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Missing information due to lack of data and literature – limited evidence
- Landslides
- River flooding
- Fire weather
- Windstorm
- Dust and Sandstorm
- Tropical cyclones
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Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
AFRICA LIMITATIONS
Data
Research
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Capacity

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Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
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Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis
Thank you!
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group I – The Physical Science Basis