Debra Roberts

1. THE WORKING GROUP II
CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC'S
FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT

2. http://ipcc-

3. CLIMATE CHANGE 2014:
IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

4. SOCIOECONOMIC
PROCESSES
Socioeconomic
Pathways
Adaptation and
Mitigation
Actions
Governance
CLIMATE
Natural
Variability
Anthropogenic
Climate Change
RISKHazards
Exposure
Vulnerability
of climate related impacts

5. A CHANGING WORLD
WIDESPREAD
OBSERVED IMPACTS

6. A CHANGING WORLD
WIDESPREAD
OBSERVED IMPACTS

7. In recent decades, changes in climate
have caused impacts on natural and
human systems on all continents and
across the oceans.

8. ALREADY OCCURING
ADAPTATION IS

9. ALREADY OCCURING
ADAPTATION IS

10. WITH CONTINUED
HIGH EMISSIONS
INCREASE
RISKS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE

11. Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of
severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts.

12. AROUND THE WORLD
Differences in vulnerability and exposure arise from non-
climatic factors and from multidimensional inequalities
often produced by uneven development processes.
These differences shape differential risks from climate
change.
VULNERABILITY
AND EXPOSURE

13. http://ipcc-

14. MANY GLOBAL RISKS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE ARE
CONCENTRATED IN URBAN
AREAS…

15.  In 2016 54.5 % of the world’s population lived in urban
areas. By 2050 a further 2.5 billion people will be added
to the world’s urban population, with nearly 90% of the
increase concentrated in Asia and Africa.
 Most of the world’s economy and assets: 600 cities
account for 60% of the world’s GDP
 Makes cities vulnerable to climate change risks – flood,
drought, extreme heat (UHI) and precipitation with
food security, human health and infrastructural
impacts and losses…
Urban areas concentrate people and assets:

16. 1950

17. 2025

18.  Very large development and infrastructure
deficits
 Most of the world’s urban population is in low- and
middle-income developing countries
 Loss of ecological infrastructure
 A billion living in informal settlements
Underdevelopment makes cities
vulnerable regardless of the type of
risk:

19. Unique global opportunity: Annual urban infrastructure
spend from $10 trillion to more than $20 trillion by 2025,
majority spent in urban centers in emerging economies –
opportunity of aging infrastructure.
“Half of what will be the built environment of 2030 does not
exist today”. Arthur C. Nelson Brookings Institute

20. EFFECTIVE CLIMATE
CHANGE ADAPTATION
A MORE VIBRANT WORLD

21. Climate
change
adaptation
Climate
change
mitigation
Disaster risk
reduction
The urban
agendas
Poverty
reduction and
universal
provision of
services*
* Following sustainable development principles
FOCUS ON INTEGRATED DECISION-MAKING TO GENERATE MULTIPLE
BENEFITS AND MANAGE TRADE-OFFS

22. Poverty
reduction and
universal
provision of
services
Climate change
adaptation
Disaster risk
reduction
The urban agendas
Climate change
mitigation
More limited overlap with climate
change mitigation – as consequences
of investments in only emerge over
time
Large overlaps especially in low-
and lower-middle income nations

23. Climate change mitigation
Poverty
reduction and
universal
provision of
services
Climate
change
adaptation
Disaster risk
reduction
• In long-term
‘dangerous’ climate
change has
profound influence
on the other three
• Date when even
strong adaptation
cannot reduce risks
without mitigation
• Transformative
adaptationThe urban agendas

24. KEY ROLE OF LOCAL
GOVERNMENT:
Need to plan and
manage much of the
transformative adaptation
needed

25.  Unique policy competence
 Engagement with local stakeholders
 Tap/influence private and household investment
 Economies of scale
 Integrate land use and infrastructure planning to address
adaptation and mitigation needs in a pro-poor and
ecologically sustainable manner
Urban climate governance advantage
Local governments do not have all the right policy
levers nor the resources to get the job done

26. • Appropriate mandates – to avoid hitting resource or
policy ‘glass ceiling’.
• Local powers for good planning and managing land use
change
• Alignment across national, sub-national, local policies
• Access to locally relevant, timely climate data and
assessment tools, recognize and work with uncertainty
• Iterative decision-making including monitoring and
design for continuous learning
• Leadership matters!
Effective urban climate risk
governance

27. Thank you
Dr Debra Roberts
IPCC Co-Chair WGII AR6
Sustainable and Resilient Cities
Initiatives Unit
Ethekwini Municipality
Durban, South Africa
debra.roberts@durban.gov.za