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Maximising synergies between the Sustainable Development Goals

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12. Dez 2018

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© OECD/IEA 2018
Maximising synergies between the
sustainable development goals
Christophe McGlade
12 December 2018

© OECD/IEA 2018
Integrated strategy for energy & sustainable development
The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO2 ...

© OECD/IEA 2018
The Sustainable Development Scenario and the Paris
Agreement goals
The CO2 emissions trajectory to 2040 in...

© OECD/IEA 2018
Can we unlock a different energy future?
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
Coal plants make up one-third...

© OECD/IEA 2018
Synergies between energy access and GHG mitigation
Higher CO2 emissions from increased fossil fuel consump...

© OECD/IEA 2018
Synergies between low-carbon measures and air pollution
Low-carbon measures rather than measures specific ...

© OECD/IEA 2018
iea.org/weo

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12. Dez 2018

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Christophe McGlade

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Maximising synergies between the Sustainable Development Goals

1. © OECD/IEA 2018 Maximising synergies between the sustainable development goals Christophe McGlade 12 December 2018
2. © OECD/IEA 2018 Integrated strategy for energy & sustainable development The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO2 emissions while also tackling air pollution, achieving universal energy access, and assessing implications for water Sustainable Development Scenario change climate Address access energy universal Achieve Improve air quality
3. © OECD/IEA 2018 The Sustainable Development Scenario and the Paris Agreement goals The CO2 emissions trajectory to 2040 in the SDS is in the middle of the range of scenarios projecting a global temperature rise of 1.5 -1.6 °C in 2100 Energy & industry CO2 in the Sustainable Development Scenario and other 1.5-1.6°C scenarios -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Gt CO2
4. © OECD/IEA 2018 Can we unlock a different energy future? Global energy-related CO2 emissions Coal plants make up one-third of CO2 emissions today and half are less than 15 years old; policies are needed to support CCUS, efficient operations and technology innovation 12 18 24 30 2017 2025 2030 2035 2040 Gt CO2 36 Sustainable Development Scenario Coal-fired power plants Increased room to manoeuvre 6 New Policies Scenario Existing and under construction power plants, factories, buildings etc.
5. © OECD/IEA 2018 Synergies between energy access and GHG mitigation Higher CO2 emissions from increased fossil fuel consumption for access are more than offset by a reduction in other GHGs from avoided traditional use of biomass Energy access-related GHG emissions in 2030 compared to today by scenario - 50 0 50 100 150 200Mt CO2-eq LPG Off-grid Mini-grid Grid Traditional use of biomass Net change New Policies Scenario Sustainable Development Scenario
6. © OECD/IEA 2018 Synergies between low-carbon measures and air pollution Low-carbon measures rather than measures specific to air pollution account for 57% of NOX and 40% of SO2 emissions reductions Drivers of SO2 emissions reductions in 2040 20 40 60 80 100 120 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Million tonnes Low-carbon measures Air pollution measures Universal access New Policies Scenario Sustainable Development Scenario Drivers of NOX emissions reductions in 2040Pollutant emissions in the New Policies and Sustainable Development scenarios NOx PM2.5 SOx
7. © OECD/IEA 2018 iea.org/weo

Hinweis der Redaktion

The Sustainable Development Scenario starts with the UN Sustainable Development Goals most closely related to energy:
[Click] tackling climate change in accordance with the Paris Agreement (SDG 13), [Click] achieving universal energy access by 2030 (SDG 7),
and [Click] reducing the impacts of air pollution (SDG 3.9).
The scenario then works back to set out what would be needed to deliver these goals in the most cost-effective way. The benefits in terms of prosperity, health, environment and energy security would be substantial, but achieving these outcomes would require a profound transformation in the way we produce and consume energy.
[Click] The Sustainable Development Scenario now also includes a water dimension, which is SDG 6, focusing both on the water needs of the energy sector and the energy needs of the water sector. Although water constraints are not fully integrated into the scenario, our analyst on water and energy, Molly Walton, will discuss the linkages between these three SDGs and water later in the webinar.
[Click] The CO2 emissions trajectory to 2040 in the Sustainable Development Scenario is [Click] lower than most published decarbonisation scenarios based on limiting long-term global average temperature rise to 1.7-1.8 °C above pre-industrial levels. So it is fully in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
What happens after 2040 is also critical for the climate outcome, and a continuation of the pre-2040 emissions reduction rate in the scenario would lead to global energy-related CO2 emissions falling to net-zero by 2070.
Maintaining or accelerating the rate of reduction of energy- and process-related emissions up to and beyond 2040 is likely to require robust technological innovation.
The power sector decarbonises rapidly before 2040, highlighting the importance of other sectors, including those where emissions reductions are more challenging, such as industry and freight transport.
Other important sectors for innovation include CCUS, and so-called “negative emissions” technologies that allow CO2 to be withdrawn from the atmosphere at scale in the second-half of the century.
In the New Policies Scenario, energy-related CO2 emissions continue on a gradually rising pathway to 2040; far from the early peak that the Paris Agreement aims to achieve.
And one of the key challenges in bringing this trajectory down is the fact that emissions from today’s energy-using infrastructure – such as industrial boilers, power plants and vehicles – is to an extent “locked-in” also for the future
[Click] We conducted a detailed analysis of the ages of today’s energy-using infrastructure and equipment, and if we continue to utilise these power plants, boilers and vehicles through to the end of their regular lifetimes, that already equates to well over 90% of the CO2 emissions permissible in the SDS to 2040, with very little room for manoeuvre.
The remaining 40 Gt CO2 is equivalent to just one year of current greenhouse-gas emissions.
Two key implications from this analysis if we are to remain with the emissions constraints of the Sustainable Development Scenario. First, whatever we add to this stock of energy-using infrastructure, these choices need to be as sustainable and efficient as possible. A systemic preference for clean energy technologies.
But we also need to be a whole lot smarter about the way that we use the energy-using assets that we have today. That means greater efficiency, much greater attention to the emissions involved in bringing oil and gas to consumers (not all sources of oil and gas are equal in their emissions impact, a topic that we look at in detail in this WEO), and much greater deployment of innovative technologies such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage, and hydrogen.
[Click] To take an example, coal-fired power plants account for one-third of energy-related CO2 emissions today and due to the long lifetime of power plants and projects under construction, they could also represent more than one-third of cumulative locked-in emissions to 2040. The vast majority (90%) of these locked-in emissions are related to projects in Asia, where coal plants are just 11-years-old on average and most still have decades left to operate. This is far less of a concern in the US and Europe, where coal-fired capacity is much older, over 40 years on average, and nearing the end of their operational lives.
[Click] But additional room to manoeuvre can be created with policies and measures targeting the deployment of carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), limiting the lifetime of unabated coal plants, and reducing operations at the remaining facilities.
Analysis of the Sustainable Development Scenario suggests that there are important synergies between the three energy-related goals at its core. There are definite synergies between providing universal energy access and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.

In the New Policies Scenario, the increase in energy demand from the population gaining access leads to an increase in CO2 emissions.
Grid-based emissions for electricity access account for the bulk of the increase in energy demand.
Decentralised renewables mean that a least-cost approach to electricity access.
Simultaneously, with access to clean cooking improved, and we see a reduction in the methane emissions from incomplete combustion of biomass in traditional cookstoves.
The resulting increase in LPG demand leads to a small increase in CO2 emissions, but the overall GHG effect is more than offset by reduced methane emissions from incomplete combustion of biomass as those using LPG turn away in many cases from burning wood and other biofuels.
While achieving these CO2 reductions requires increased policy action, our analysis exposes many synergies between development objectives that help to build the case for action. We already mentioned how energy access need not increase CO2 emissions.
From an air pollution perspective, measures taken towards low-carbon objectives can also drive reductions in air pollutant emissions .
[Click] Low-carbon measures offer many co-benefits for reduction of air pollution, including more than half of the NOX reductions in SDS relative to NPS and around 40% of the reductions in SO2. Additional NOX reductions from the transport sector in the Sustainable Development Scenario are largely driven by energy efficiency and switching to electric vehicles – considered a low-carbon measure – rather than by additional end-of-pipe regulation.
[Click] Air pollution specific measures. When it comes to SO2, industry is more reliant on pollution control measures. In the power sector, significant policies for end-of-pipe pollution control are already included in the New Policies Scenario.
[Click] Providing universal access is the most important driver of the reduction of PM2.5. For PM2.5 emissions, more than half of current emissions are in the buildings sector, almost entirely due to smoky indoor environments in countries where many people still cook with solid fuels. The proportion is set to remain almost unchanged in the New Policies Scenario, but in the Sustainable Development Scenario, universal energy access leads to an almost total elimination of PM2.5 emissions in buildings and to a slight reduction in CO2 emissions.