May Khin Chaw, Director, DMH, Ministry of Transport and Communications at IPCC outreach event in Myanmar, 30 May 2019

1. Outreach Events on the IPCC Role, Activities and Findings
Department of Meteorology & Hydrology
30-31 May, 2019.
Climate Change Events in Myanmar and Future Scenarios

2. Meteorological disasters
Tropical
revolving storms
Strong winds &
Heavy rains
Tornadoes
Storm surges
Drought
• River floods
• Flash floods
• Inundations
• Very low River water levels
• Very low ground water
levels
• Heavy rain spells
• Droughts
• Earthquake
• Land slide
• Tsunami

3. Myanmar frequently hit by
• Cyclone
• Storm surge
• Temperature.
• Drought
• Extremely rain.
• Strong wind.
Recent Natural Disasters
• 2006 Apr Cyclone Mala
• 2008 May Cyclone Nargis
• 2010 Oct Cyclone GIRI
• 2011 Mar Tarlay Earthquake
• 2011 Heavy Rain & Floods
• 2011 Oct Pakokku Flash Flood
• 2012 Flood
• 2013 Heavy Monsoon and flood
• 2015 Flood & Landslide
• 2015 Tropical cyclone “Komen” &
floods
• 2016 Tropical cyclone “Roanu” &
floods
• 2017 “Maarutha”, “Mora” & floods
• 2018 Strong Monsoon Intensity &
Heavy rains & floods in
Southern areas of Myanmar
• 2019 (43) times new records for
Day Temp

4. World Map of the Global Climate Risk Index (1997-2016)
Source: Germanwatch

6. Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar
Due to Climate Change
 Climate Change causes extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of
Myanmar.
• Increase extreme high temperatures was recorded 47.2 °C on 14.5.2010 at
Myinmu and other Highest Temperature were recorded at 20 stations during
May of 2010.
• Untimely rain as well as heavy rain within short duration conditions were
observed throughout the recent years. Heavy fall of (29) inches within 24
hours at Taungkok and (10) to (15) inches of other Rakhine areas in July and
August of 2011

7. • At 20 January 2011, heavy
Snowfall in Panwa Valley,
Northern Kachin State. The
snow came down like heavy
rain, causing a number of
buildings to collapse.
• Rain induced landslides
were observed as the
secondary disasters in
hilly regions of Myanmar
in 2015.
Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar
Due to Climate Change (Cont..)

8. • The depression formed in post monsoon period, October 2011, crossed to
Myanmar and Bangladesh border area near Maungdaw and Cox’s Bazar.
Under the influence of this depression, mountain torrent with heavy rain at
Pakokku District resulted damages of six bridges including Shwechaung
Bridge, and 59 death toll and 47 are missing. Moreover, cattle, crops, farm
land and buildings are destroyed by the flood
Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar
Due to Climate Change (Cont..)

9. • Severe flood and Heavy Rain because of coincidence with
Extreme Rainfall and Cyclone KOMEN, July 2015. Because of this
severe flood, 1.6 million people caused almost 120 deaths, and
damaged agriculture and infrastructure.
Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar
Due to Climate Change (Cont..)

10. Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar
Due to Climate Change (Cont..)
In 2016
❖ 2016 flood cause is more sever than
2015 on Ayeyarwady river, but
Chindwin river is less.
2016 Cyclone Roanu

11. • During the monsoon season of 2017, the flood events occurred at 8
major rivers out of 12 major rivers. The flood frequencies of 2017 were
very similar with the flood frequencies of 2016 at Ayeyarwady and
Chindwin rivers but other small rivers were more than the flood
frequencies of 2016
Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar
Due to Climate Change (Cont..)

12. Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar
Due to Climate Change (Cont..)
June 18, 2018. Flooding in
southern Myanmar has caused
a landslide at a famed Buddhist pagoda,
submerged homes and displaced hundreds
of people

13. Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Events of Myanmar
Due to Climate Change (Cont..)
As a result of High temperature and less
rain, drought, in Inlay Lake, Myanmar was
totally dried out in 2010 is one of the
evidence of Climate Change in Myanmar
Thousands of people especially from ountryside
and remote villages are suffering from drought.
With the drought, even simple everyday living
becomes increasingly difficulties. All small and
big lakes are drying out and people have to face
worsening shortage of clean and drinking water

14. ❖ Myanmar has about 2300 kilometers long coastline, which can be divided into three
parts as Rakhine, Deltaic and Tanintharyi coasts.
❖ The coastal areas are prone to cyclones and associated strong wind, heavy rain and
storm surge.
❖ Cyclones are more intense and more frequent in the recent years due to the Climate
Change effect. Therefore, there is need to find out better solutions for the
management of climate change effects in Myanmar.

15. How changes on Myanmar SW Monsoon???

16. Observed Climate Changes in Myanmar
❖ SW Monsoon onset dates are late since 1987 as comparing with normal date.
❖ 30 years (1981-2010) normal onset date is 6th June.
❖ 2018 SW monsoon onset date was 3rd June

17. Observed Climate Changes in Myanmar
❖ Trend line significantly showed that withdrawal dates are earlier than normal
❖ 30 years (1981-2010) normal withdrawal date is 3rd October.
❖ 2018 SW monsoon withdrawal date was 4th October

18. Observed Climate Changes in Myanmar
❖ Trend line significantly showed that SW monsoon durations are down trend.
❖ 30 years (1961-1990) normal SW monsoon date is (144)days.
❖ 30 years (1981-2010) normal SW monsoon date is (121)days.
❖ Shorter SW monsoon duration longer hot season with high maximum temperature
more rain over a shorter time and subsequently flash
flood

19. Observed Maximum Temperature Changes in
Myanmar
❖ Maximum temperatures of APRIL in 2019 are higher than in 2017 and 2018 and area also
expanded.
❖ According to 2019 observational Data, new recorded maximum temperature were
observed at (41) times at (26) townships.
❖ Day temperatures increased 1.7 ˚C above average maximum temperature in March, April
and May in the whole country

20. 30.5
30.7
30.9
31.1
31.3
31.5
31.7
31.9
32.1
32.3
32.5
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
MaximumTemperature(˚C)
Year
Annual Maximum Temperature (˚C) during 1981-2010
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Annualrainfall(mm)
Year
Annual Rainfall (mm) during 1981-2010
Annual Rainfalls:
Increasing trend in the whole
country
Annual Day Temperatures (˚C):
Increasing trend in the whole
country

21. Future ?????
Climate Scenario Change from
Baseline RCP 4.5
Climate Scenario Change from
Baseline RCP 8.5

22. ▪ 40 GCM Models and 13 RCM (CORDEX ) Models for Climate Scenario with SimCLIM.
▪ A guide to Representative Concentration Pathways
The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) is the latest generation of scenarios that provide
input to climate models.

23. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline RCP 4.5
Climate Scenario Change from Baseline RCP 8.5
Precipitation % Departure

24. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline RCP 4.5
Climate Scenario Change from Baseline RCP 8.5
Maximum Temperature Anomaly (°C )

25. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline RCP 4.5
Climate Scenario Change from Baseline RCP 8.5
Minimum Temperature Anomaly (°C )

26. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline –Precipitation (% )RCP 4.5
0.8
1.8
2.8
3.8
4.8
5.8
6.8
7.8
2040 2060 2080 2100
Precipitation(%Departure)
Ayeyar
Bago East
Bago West
Chin
Kachin
Kayah
Kayin
Magway
Mandalay
Mon
Naypyitaw Council
Rakhine
Sagaing (Lower)
Sagaing (Upper)
Shan (East)
Shan (North)
Shan (South)
Tanintharyi
Yangon
Year

27. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline
Maximum Temperature Anomaly(°C )RCP 4.5
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
2040 2060 2080 2100
MaximumTemperatureAnomaly(°C)
Ayeyar
Bago East
Bago West
Chin
Kachin
Kayah
Kayin
Magway
Mandalay
Mon
Naypyitaw Council
Rakhine
Sagaing (Lower)
Sagaing (Upper)
Shan (East)
Shan (North)
Shan (South)
Tanintharyi
Yangon
Year

28. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline
Minimum Temperature (°C )RCP 4.5
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2040 2060 2080 2100
MinimumTemperatureAnomaly(°C)
Ayeyar
Bago East
Bago West
Chin
Kachin
Kayah
Kayin
Magway
Mandalay
Mon
Naypyitaw Council
Rakhine
Sagaing (Lower)
Sagaing (Upper)
Shan (East)
Shan (North)
Shan (South)
Tanintharyi
Yangon
Year

29. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline –Precipitation (% )RCP 8.5
0.8
2.8
4.8
6.8
8.8
10.8
12.8
14.8
16.8
18.8
2040 2060 2080 2100
Precipitation(%Departure)
Ayeyar
Bago East
Bago West
Chin
Kachin
Kayah
Kayin
Magway
Mandalay
Mon
Naypyitaw Council
Rakhine
Sagaing (Lower)
Sagaing (Upper)
Shan (East)
Shan (North)
Shan (South)
Tanintharyi
Yangon
Year

30. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline
Maximum Temperature (°C )RCP 8.5
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.8
3.3
3.8
4.3
4.8
2040 2060 2080 2100
MaximumTemperatureAnomaly(°C)
Ayeyar
Bago East
Bago West
Chin
Kachin
Kayah
Kayin
Magway
Mandalay
Mon
Naypyitaw Council
Rakhine
Sagaing (Lower)
Sagaing (Upper)
Shan (East)
Shan (North)
Shan (South)
Tanintharyi
Yangon
Year

31. Climate Scenario Change from Baseline
Minimum Temperature (°C )RCP 8.5
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.8
3.3
3.8
4.3
4.8
2040 2060 2080 2100
MinimumTemperatureAnomaly(°C)
Ayeyar
Bago East
Bago West
Chin
Kachin
Kayah
Kayin
Magway
Mandalay
Mon
Naypyitaw Council
Rakhine
Sagaing (Lower)
Sagaing (Upper)
Shan (East)
Shan (North)
Shan (South)
Tanintharyi
Yangon
Year

32. Vulnerability of areas and
Regions/States in intensity and
severity of extreme weather events
Climate Change Vulnerability of the main
socio-economic sectors due to extreme
weather events
Myanmar’s Vulnerability to Climate Change

33. Sectors need to Climate Change adaptation
National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA)
• Priorities sectors for climate adaptation
– Agriculture
– Early warning
– Forest
– Public health
– Water resources
– Coastal Zone
– Energy and Industry
– Biodiversity

34. Relevant Regulatory Framework
• Constitution (2008)
• Environmental Policy (1994)
• Myanmar Agenda 21 (1997)
• National Sustainable Development Strategy –NSDS (2009)
• NAPA (2012)
• Environmental Conservation Law (2012)
• Environmental Conservation Rules (2014)
• Environmental Quality Guidelines (2015)
• Relevant Sectoral Laws and Rules
• Intended National Determined Contribution INDC
• Second National Communication(on going)
• Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (2016)

35. Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (2016)
❖ Addressing climate change requires a strategic
approach that involves all sectors of society.
❖ Myanmar National Climate Change Strategy and its
Action Plans, adopted in 2016.
Sectors
▪ Water
• Mining
• Forestry
• Public Health
• Energy
• Transport and infrastructure
• Urban development and Construction
• Industrial and commercial development
• Etc.

36. Myanmar National Climate Change Policy, Strategy &
Action Plan (NCCP and MCCSAP 2017-2030)
Six Sectors
1.Climate Smart Agriculture, Fisheries and Livestock for Food Security
2. Sustainable Management of Natural Resources for Healthy Eco-System
3. Resilient and Low Carbon Energy, Transport and Industrial Systems for Sustainable
Growth
4. Resilient, Inclusive, and Sustainable cities and towns where people can live and thrive
5. Climate Risk Management for People’s Health and Well-being
6. Education, Science and Technology for a Resilient Society
❖ The Myanmar Climate Change Strategy & Action Plan (MCCSAP) 2017-
2030 presents a roadmap to guide Myanmar’s strategic responses to
address climate related risks and opportunities over the next 15 years
and beyond.
❖ The Strategy and Action Plan aims to support key actors in their decision
making at the national and local level to respond to the challenges and
opportunities associated with climate change.

37. Workshop on “Catalyzing the Integration of Climate Change into
University Curriculum in Myanmar”, 28th August, 2018, Naypyitaw,
August 30, 2018
Organized by LUCCC and Hosted by ECD