1.
© OECD/IEA 2017
Integrating climate, air pollution & universal
access: The Sustainable Development Scenario
Webinar
24 November 2017

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© OECD/IEA 2017
Context
 Energy supports economic growth & is pervasive to all aspects of human life
 Energy production & use is linked to a wide range of issues, including
environmental aspects but also e.g. health, social and equity problems
 Progress has been made, but the problems are far from solved:
CO2 emissions were at the same level for three consecutive years, but a
peak is not yet in sight
Air pollution is linked to around 6 million premature deaths per year
1.1 billion people still lack access to electricity & 2.8 billion people do not
have access to clean cooking

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© OECD/IEA 2017
Energy underpins the UN Sustainable Development Agenda

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…and is particularly crucial for SDGs 3, 7 and 13
SDG 3.9: Substantially reduce the number of deaths and
illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water and
soil pollution and contamination
SDG 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable
and modern energy for all
SDG 13: Take urgent action to combat climate
change and its impacts

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India takes the lead, as China energy growth slows
Change in energy demand, 2016-40 (Mtoe)
Old ways of understanding the energy world are losing value as countries change roles;
India
1 005
420
Southeast
Asia
China
790
United States
-30
Japan
-50
Europe
-200
270Central and
South America
485Africa
135 Eurasia
480
Middle
East
low-carbon sources & natural gas meet 85% of the increase in global demand
2016-2040
Coal Oil
Gas Low-carbon
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
Mtoe

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CO2 emissions growth slows
Energy-related CO2 emissions in the New Policies Scenario
Emissions growth slows as China moves restructures its economic growth model and the
use of low-carbon technologies, in particular solar PV and wind, rises
10
20
30
40
Gt
Coal Oil Gas
1990 2000 2010 2016 2020 2030 2040

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Air pollution is an energy problem
Emissions of the main air pollutants fall in many regions, but ageing populations and
urbanisation increase related health impacts
New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040
Millionpeople
-0.3
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
European Union
China
India
Southeast Asia
Rest of world
Premature deaths from
outdoor air pollution
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
European
Union
China India Southeast
Asia
SO2 NOX PM2.5
Change in air pollutant emissions

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© OECD/IEA 2017
Million
people
200
400
600
2000 2005 2010 2016
Electricity access makes progress in all regions,
but sub-Saharan Africa lags behind
Many countries, led by India, are on track to achieving full electrification by 2030,
but – despite recent progress – efforts in sub-Saharan Africa need to redouble
Sub-Saharan
Africa
India
Other Asia
2020 2025 2030
India
Other Asia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Million
200
400
600
2000 2005 2010 2016
Sub-Saharan
Africa
India
Other Asia
2020 2025 2030
Population without electricity access

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Sustainable
Development
Scenario
The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO2 emissions to address climate change while
also tackling air pollution and achieving universal energy access
A new strategy for energy & sustainable development

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Rethinking the energy sector
580bcm
additional gas demand
2times
more efficient
than today
3250GW
global solar PV capacity
875million electric
vehicles
Achieving the three targets of the Sustainable Development Scenario simultaneously
requires a step change in the pace of delivering a clean energy transition
The Sustainable Development Scenario in 2040

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Electricity generation
Towards a low-carbon power sector
New Policies Scenario
Power generation in 2040 is all but decarbonised in the Sustainable Development
Scenario, with renewables accounting for more than 60% of total generation
Coal
Coal CCS
Gas CCS
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar PV
Other renewables
Sustainable Development Scenario
25%
50%
75%
100%
2010 2020 2030 2040
25%
50%
75%
2010 2020 2030 2040
100%

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Natural gas is the only fossil fuel to grow in the
Sustainable Development Scenario
Fossil fuel demand in the New Policies Scenario & Sustainable Development Scenario
Coal & oil demand drop in the Sustainable Development Scenario. Gas becomes the largest fossil fuel
by 2040 alongside the rapid expansion of low-carbon technologies & improvements in efficiency
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Coal
Oil
Gas
Mtoe
New Policies Scenario
Sustainable Development
Scenario

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A complex picture for gas,
a clear downward path for coal
Share of coal & gas in energy demand in selected regions in the Sustainable Development Scenario
The share of coal in total primary energy demand falls across all regions in the Sustainable
Development Scenario, but opportunities for gas vary by country, by sector and over time
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Share of gas in primary energy
Share of coal
in primary energy
India
Europe North America
Eurasia
Middle East
China 2016
2025
2040

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© OECD/IEA 2017
Three quarters of current oil and gas methane emissions
are technically avoidable
Global marginal abatement cost curve for oil and gas methane emissions, 2015
It is technically possible to reduce the 76 Mt current oil and gas emissions by 58 Mt;
half (38 Mt) can be avoided using approaches with positive net present values
North America
Europe
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Africa
Eurasia
-10
-5
0
5
10
60
Mt
0 10 20 30 40 50
USD/MBtu

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The Sustainable Development Scenario:
on track to achieve the Paris Agreement
CO2 emissions peak & decline through 2040 in the Sustainable Development Scenario,
allowing for the achievement of ambitious temperature goals by 2100
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
From SDS towards 1.5 °C
From SDS towards 2 °C
Sustainable Development
Scenario (SDS)
GtCO2
Energy- and process-related CO2 emissions
2040 2100Emissions from scenarios projecting global temperature rise of around 1.7 – 1.8 °C :

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Air quality is an energy issue
Concentration of fine particulate matter in China
Urbanisation & an ageing population increase vulnerability to health impacts in China,
but a clean energy transition cuts pollutant emissions considerably
Today
2040: New
Policies Scenario
2040: Sustainable
Development
Scenario
Source: WEO analysis, IIASA

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Achieving universal energy access is not in
conflict with climate goals
On-Grid
Mini-Grid
Off-Grid
Existing grid
 Grid extension for 150 million additional people,
with hydro accounting for the lion’s share
 Decentralised solutions, mainly solar PV, for the
remaining 450 million people in rural areas
 An additional $26 billion per year is needed in
electricity generation and grids
Policies of the Sustainable Development Scenario achieve universal energy access by 2030,
improving human health and supporting the achievement of climate change goals

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Energy demand
Average annual investment in the Sustainable Development Scenario
Sustainable investment needs
The Sustainable Development Scenario requires 15% additional investment to 2040; two-
thirds of energy supply investment are needed for electricity generation & networks
T&DNuclear and CCS
RenewablesFossil fuels
400
800
1 200
1 600
2016 2017-40
USDbillion(2016)
Energy supply
2017-40
Industry
TransportBuildings
2016

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© OECD/IEA 2017
Conclusions
 Progress is being made towards the SDGs, but under current trends the goals on
climate change, air pollution and universal access will not be met
 Our strategy for sustainable energy shows that concerted action to address climate
change is fully compatible with global goals on universal access & air quality
 The strategy achieves universal access in 2030, and cuts CO2 emissions and premature
deaths from air pollution in 2040 by half, relative to the central scenario
 The Sustainable Development Scenario requires an additional 15% of investment and
profound changes in energy production & use
 The IEA stands ready to support progress towards a clean energy future with its full
range of capabilities ranging from data to analysis and support to implementation

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