Cecilia TAM, International Energy Agency

1. Introduction to Energy Technology
Roadmaps
Energy technology roadmaps Energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2011

2. Key technologies for reducing global CO2
emissions
60
Gt CO2
Baseline emissions 57 Gt End-use fuel and electricity
55
efficiency 38%
50
End-use fuel switching 15%
45
40 Power generation efficiency and
35 fuel switching 5%
source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010
30 Nuclear 6%
25
Renewables 17%
20
15 BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt CCS 19%
10
5
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related
CO2 emissions substantially.
Energy technology roadmaps
28-Feb-12
© OECD/IEA 2009

3. The Role of Roadmaps
• A global price for carbon is necessary
– …but by itself insufficient to accelerate the needed energy
technology advancements in time
• Greater focus on energy technology policies needed
• Technology roadmaps can support GHG goals by:
– Identifying and addressing technology-specific barriers
– Highlighting necessary deployment policies and incentives
– Directing increased RD&D funding for new technologies
– Supporting technology diffusion, knowledge sharing among countries
Energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2011

4. Technology roadmaps provide answers
• Where is technology today?
• GW installed capacity/kWh of savings
• Leading countries/regions
• Cost, efficiency
• What is the deployment pathway needed to achieve 2050 goals?
• Use IEA Energy Technology Perspectives BLUE Map scenarios
• What are the priority near-term actions?
• R&D gaps and how to fill them
• Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome
• Market requirements and policy needs
• Technology diffusion/transfer and international collaboration needs
Energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2011

5. Roadmap logic
• Goal to achieve
• Milestones to be met
• Gaps to be filled
• Actions to overcome
gaps and barriers
• What and when things
need to be achieved
Energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2011

6. Roadmap process outline
Energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2011

7. Roadmap Tasks
• Scoping phase reviewing existing work and identifying
issues
• One or more workshops with 15-30 experts from
industry, government, academia...
• Develop draft roadmap
• Circulate draft of roadmap to wider stakeholder group
• Carry out missing analysis and refine roadmap
• Re-circulate second draft for further comment
• Publish roadmap
Energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2011

8. Technology roadmaps
2009 2010 2011 2012
•Vehicle Fuel Economy
•High efficiency,
low emissions coal
•Hydropower
•Bioenergy
•Solar heating & cooling
•Energy efficient building
envelopes
•Chemical catalysis
Energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2011

9. IEA ROADMAP EXAMPLES
Energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2011

10. Roadmap example:
Wind - an ambitious growth pathway
6000 25%
Wind electricity production (TWh/yr)
5000
% of global electricity production
20%
4000
15%
3000
10%
2000
5%
1000
0 0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
China OECD Europe
USA OECD Pacific
Latin America India
EiT Other North America
Middle East Other Developing Asia
Africa Wind share BLUE Map scenario
Wind share BLUE hi REN scenario
Energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2011

11. EE in Buildings roadmap example:
Cost reduction goals
Energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2011

12. EV/PHEV roadmap example:
milestones
Energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2011