German Norwegian Energy Forum Conference 2012 in Berlin

1. German Energy Policy – Views from the Outside
Dr. Carsten Rolle
Executive Director
German Norwegian Energy Forum
Berlin, 23 October 2012

2. Who we are - World Energy Council
(WEC)
Largest impartial global energy network
Founded in 1923, based in London
More than 90 Member
Countries
Representing the entire energy spectrum
Hosting high-level events / publishing authoritative studies / facilitating the
world's energy policy dialogue
Mission Statement since 1924: "To promote the sustainable supply
and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all people"
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3. German Energy Policy
– Views from Outside
German „Energiewende“ – a blueprint for the world?
What are the current challenges for the German energy transition?
What are the potential solutions?
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4. German „Energiewende“ - Targets
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5. ”Energiewende” – Global Survey
Survey among WEC-network
Feedback from 21 Countries
14 within Europe
7 outside of Europe
10 questions in the following areas
1) How feasible are the objectives of the “Energiewende”?
2) Which national/international consequences are expected?
3) Could the GER approach serve as a blueprint for the world?
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6. ”Energiewende” – Global Survey
No expert believes that GER will reach all its objectives of the
energy concept in time. But: 67 % of the experts believe that GER,
will generally reach its objectives partly or with delay.
Short-/medium-term a weakening of GER’s economic power is
expected by 76 %. But: Long-term 33 % expect a strengthening.
71 % expect in the midterm a significant additional increase of
electricity prices in their own national markets.
62 % expect increased threats for Europe’s security of supply.
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7. GER energy policy - blueprint for the world?
GER shouldn’t be a blueprint Potential elements to copy
for the world
RES-goals
No element
worth being
copied
CO2-goals
other elements,
partly not specified
81 % reject that the GER energy 62 % of the experts agree that some
policy approach should be a elements of the GER approach could be
blueprint for the world replicated in their countries
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8. Structure of electricity generation
capacities in Germany
The installed capacity of renewable
energies will nearly triple until 2030. A
big part accounts for wind power and
photovoltaic systems.
The installed capacity of coal power
plants will decrease prospectively.
Power plants under construction will
still be realized. But a further
expansion would no longer be cost-
effective.
Despite new construction projects,
capacities of lignite power plants will
also decline in the following years.
Prognos 2011
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9. Major challenge: integration of renewable
energies into the power supply system
DRL Leitstudie 2011
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10. Major challenge: integration of renewable
energies into the power supply system
Installed capacity of renewable energy, in GW
Annual maximum load
Annual minimum load
DRL Leitstudie 2011
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11. Yearly surpluses in Germany
60000
M 2012
2020
40000
2030
Surplus due to fluctuating inflow 2040
2050
20000
0
Essential dispatchable power generation
-20000
-40000
-60000
1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001
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12. Potential solutions for the integration of
renewables: storage facilities
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13. Different energy storage systems for
different applications
International
hydropower
storage
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14. Facing the challanges - Regional interconnection to
balance demand and supply
Can international hydroelectric storages contribute
to the German energy transformation?
Realistic assessment of
the challanges by the transformation
the storage potentials available in Germany, Norway,
Sweden, Switzerland and Austria
how these potentials can be utilized
National and international partners involved to
verify the assessments
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15. German Energy Policy
– Views from the Outside
Thank you!
Dr. Carsten Rolle
Executive Director
World Energy Council - German
Gertraudenstrasse 20
D-10178 Berlin
Germany
Tel: +49-30-2061-6750
Fax: +49-30-2028-2595
Mail: rolle@weltenergierat.de
www.weltenergierat.de
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