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Thinking fast and slow. Decision making

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A powerpoint based on Kahnemans book Thinking fast and slow.

Veröffentlicht in: Business, Technologie
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Thinking fast and slow. Decision making

  1. 1. We like to think that we gather all available infoand analyzes it rationally before we make adecision.
  2. 2. 27 x 46=?
  3. 3. A bat and a ball cost a total of$1.10. The bat costs $1 morethan the ball. How much does the ball cost?
  4. 4. SYSTEM 1 = 10¢SYSTEM 2 = 5¢
  5. 5. Action oriented biasesdrive us to take action less thoughtfully than we shouldOverconfidence. Excessive optimism.Overestimating our skill level relative The tendency for people to beto others. We overestimate our ability overoptimistic about the outcome ofto affect future outcomes, take credit planned actions.for past outcomes, and neglect to roleof chance.Interest biasesarise in the presence of conflicting incentivesMisalligned individual incentives. Inappropriate attachments.Incentives to adopt views or to seek Emotional attachment of individuals tooutcomes favorable to their unit or people or element of the business,themselves, at the expense of the creating a misalignment of interests.overall interest of the company. Misaligned perception of corporate goals. Disagreements about the relative weigth of objectives pursued by the organization
  6. 6. Pattern-recognition biaseslead us to recognize patterns even where there are none.Confirmation bias. Power of storytellingThe over-weighting of evidence The tendency to remember and toconsistent with a favored belief, believe more easily a set of factsunderweighting of evidence against a when they are part of a coherentfavored belief. story.Management by example Champion biasGeneralizing based on examples that The tendency to evaluate a plan orare particulary recent or memorable. proposal based on the track record of the person presenting it, more thanFalse analogies the facts supporting it.Relying on comparisons withsituations that are not directlycomparable.
  7. 7. Stability biasescreate a tendency toward inertia in the presence of uncertainty.Anchoring and insufficient Sunk-cost fallacy.adjustments. Paying attention to historical costs thatRooting oneself to an initial value, are not recoverable when consideringleading to insufficient adjustments of future courses of action.subsequent estimates.Loss aversionThe tendency to feel losses moreacutely than gains of the same Status quo bias.amount, making us more risk-averse Preference for the status quo in thethan a rational calculation would absence of pressure to change itsuggest.Social biasesarise from the preference for harmony over conflict.Groupthink Sunflower managementStriving for consensus at the cost of a Tendency for groups to align with therealistic appraisal of alternative views of their leaders, whetercourses of action. expressed or assumed.
  8. 8. Decision quality control: A Checklist
  9. 9. Ask yourself#1 #2CHECK FOR SELF-INTERESTED CHECK FOR THE AFFECTBIASES HEURISTICIs there any reason to suspect the Has the team fallen in love with it´steam making the recommendation of proposal?errors motivated by self-interest? Rigorously apply all the qualityReview the proposal with extra care, controls on the checklist.especially for overoptimism. #3CHECK FOR GROUPTHINKWere there dissenting opinions withinthe team? Were they exploredadequatley?Solicit dissenting views, discreetly ifnecessary.
  10. 10. Ask the recommenders#4 #5CHECK FOR SALIENCY BIAS CHECK FOR CONFIRMATION BIASCould the dignosis be overly Are credible alternatives included along withinfluenced by a analogy to a the recommendation?memorable success? Request additional options.Ask for more analogies, and rigorouslyanalyze their similarity to the currentsituation. #7 CHECK FOR ANCHORING BIAS Do you know where the numbers came#6 from? Can there be ..unsubstantiatedCHECK FOR AVAILABILITY BIAS numbers? ..extrapolation from history? .. aIf you had to make this decision again motivation to use a certain anchor?in a year´s time, what information Reanchor with new analysis generated bywould you want, and can you get other models or benchmarks.more of it now?Use checklist of the data needed foreach kind of decision.
  11. 11. Ask the recommenders#8 #9CHECK FOR HALO EFFECT CHECK FOR SUNK-COST FALLACY,Is the team assuming that a person or a ENDOWMENT EFFECTapproach that was successful in one area Are the recommenders overly attached to awill be as successful in another? history of past decisions?Eliminate false inferences Consider the issue as if you were a new CEO.
  12. 12. Ask about the proposal# 10 # 11CHECK FOR OVERCONFIDENCE, CHECK FOR DISASTER NEGLECTPLANNING FALLACY, OPTIMISTIC Is the worst case bad enough?BIASES, COMPETITOR NEGLECTIs the base case overly optimistic? Have the team conduct a pre-mortem: Imagine that the worst has happened,Have the team build a case taking an and develop a story about the causes.outside view; use war games.# 12CHECK FOR LOSS AVERSIONIs the recommending team overlycautious?Realign incentives to shareresponsibility for the risk or to removerisk.
  13. 13. The best way to ruin a decision making processis letting the boss speak first.
  14. 14. Decision making is a team sport. Operatinginside silos is deadly. Collaborate.
  15. 15. We need a better recording device.Today we are getting better and better at measuring what´seasy to measure - not what´s important.Our ability to make a decision can never be better than thecurrent picture I have of the situationWe need to understand what data we need in order to make BY: MATT BLAZE ON FLICKR.COM IMAGEgood decisions and then measure it evidence based.
  16. 16. Collect the relevantdata and ananalyzeit properly.
  17. 17. Receptors Mental mapsExperiences Intentions Language Values
  18. 18. The most successful people arethose who are good at plan B.
  19. 19. lesson in a tweet ed ssǝɔ oɹ d ƃ uıʞɐɯ uoısıɔǝ p i as reb WeaHow most people think it How it really is...is...
  20. 20. If everone agrees only one person has been thinkingGary Klein Daniel Kahneman