Climate Change and Drought:Understanding the Indian Perspective

1. Climate Change and Drought:
Understanding the Indian Perspective
Dr. Vinod K. Sharma
Senior Professor, Disaster Management
Indian Institute of Public Administration
and
Executive Vice Chairman, Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority

2. Natural Disaster Trends
• Since 1950s number of
major natural disasters
increased fourfold
• Economic losses risen
14 times

3. Climate Change
• Climate is the long-term average of a region's
weather events lumped together.
• Climate change represents a change in these
long term weather patterns. They can become
warmer or colder.
• Annual amounts of rainfall or snowfall can
increase or decrease.

4. Climate change and natural hazards
• Sea-level rise inevitable of up
to 80 cm by 2100
• Other forecasts:
– Increased numbers and intensity
of tropical cyclones
– Extreme precipitation
– More droughts
– Glacial melting & increased
mountain hazards
– More wildfires
– Irregular weather behaviour

6. The predicted change in ARCTIC SEA ICE between 1950 and 2050,
According to a climate model run by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

7. The components of the global climate system - A schematic view (Source: IPCC)

8. Defining Drought
• A period in which water supplies are “substantially”
below average for a particular place and season
Types of Drought:
– Meteorological Drought
– Hydrological Drought
– Agricultural Drought
– Socio-economical drought

9. Categories of Drought
Natural Climate Variability
Soil water deficiency
Economic Impacts Social Impacts Environmental Impacts
Time (duration)
Meteorological
Drought
Agricultural
Drought
Hydrological
Drought
Increased evaporation and
transpiration
Precipitation deficiency
(amount, intensity, timing)
High temp., high winds, low
relative humidity, greater
sunshine, less cloud cover
Reduced infiltration, runoff,
deep percolation, and
ground water recharge
Land water stress, reduced
biomass and yield
Reduced stream flow, inflow to
reservoirs, lakes, and ponds;
reduced wetlands, wildlife habitat
It is defined by climatic
variables (precipitation,
humidity) and the
duration of the dry
period.
It links characteristics of
meteorological drought to
agricultural impacts, focusing on
precipitation shortages, differences
between actual and potential
evapo-transpiration, soil water
deficits, etc.
It is associated with effects on
surface or subsurface water
supplies (i.e., stream flow,
reservoir and lake levels,
groundwater).
Socioeconomic drought occurs
when the demand for an
economic good exceeds supply
as a result of a weather-related
shortfall in water supply
(National related shortfall in
water supply (National Drought
Mitigation Center, 2000).

10. Droughts in India
• Mainly from failure of rains from the south-west
monsoon
• 21 large-scale droughts in last century
• Greater frequencies during 1891-1920, 1965-90 and
1997-2000
During the monsoon season (June-September) of 1987, over
260 districts and 285 million persons affected

12. Drought Management Includes
• Drought Monitoring, Forecasting & Impact
Assessment
• Drought Relief
• Drought Planning and Mitigation (Long term
planning & Mitigation Exercise)

13. State Drought
Monitoring Cell,
State Agril. Dept,
State Reomote
Sensing Agency,
Agril. Univ.
Drought
Management
Stakeholders
Drought
Management
Monitoring,
Forecasting
& Impact
Assessment
Relief
CWC, CGWB,
Ministry of Water
Resources
NRSA, SAC,
NNRMS
IMD, DMD,
AgriMet, National
Center for Medium
Range Weather
Forecast
Crop Weather
Watch Group,
National Crop
Forecasting
Center, Min. of
Agril., ICAR
Planning & Mitigation
(Programs with Short Terms/Long Terms)
State Agril. Dept., Agril. Extension
Workers, KVKs, Agricultural Univ.
Min. of Water Resources Department (CGWB/CWC- Reservoir
/ Canal Regulation, Alternative Water Sources
National Seed Corporation – Seed allocation as per DMD
advice
Min. of Railways – Water
Transportation/Fodder/Seeds
Animal Husbandry, Dairying & Fisheries –
Feed & Fodder Development
ICAR/Boards - Expert Advice on
Cropping Pattern, Tillage Practices,
Drought Tolerance Seeds/ Varieties
Banking Sector NABARD/RBI/Gramin Bank- Crop & Cattle
Insurance, Rural Infrastructure Develop. Fund,
Credit Management (??)
Agro & Rural Industries – Rural Employment
Fertilizers, Min. of Chemicals & Fertilizers
Health & Family Welfare-minimizing
the effect of heat
stroke/dehydration
Food & Public Distribution (PDS)
Affected District Administration Collector
Non-Govt. Organization – Foreign Aids
Min. Petroleum & Natural Gas
– To allocate additional diesel
Min. of Rural Development
Women & Child Development – ICDS
Program for Nutritional Program to
vulnerable sections
Min. HRD – Drought Mgmt teaching
Min. of Law & Justice – Legal
Advice on drought litigation matters
PMO – Drought Briefing
Planning Commission – Policy Planning &
allocation of fund
Cabinet Secretariat – Monitor acute
drought condition & seek various reports
Agri. Minister, Agril. Sect.
Disaster Management Steering
Committee
Regional
Climatology
Group, Local
Area Impact
Assessment
Group, Drought
Impact Reporter
Inter. Agencies –
NOAA, NASA,
EROS, USGS, etc.
Min. of Agriculture – Watershed Mgmt.,
Dryland farming, Rainfed Agril.
Min. of Rural Development – Aggregated
Rural Water supply Program, SWAJAL
Dhara, Int. Watershed Devel. Program,
etc.,
Min. of Environment & Forest –
Afforestation & Eco Develop, Farm
Forestry, etc.
Min. of Water Resources – Water
Conservation, Rain Water Harvesting,
Reservoir Cons, GW Recharge, etc.
Min. of Finance – RBI, NABARD, Gramin
Bank, etc.

14. As-Is Process
NRSA
• Meteorological Satellite
Images INSAT & NOAA
• INSAT Payload –
– Very High Resolution
Radiometer (VHRR),
– Data Relay Transponder
(DRT),
– Charged Coupled Device
Camera (CCD) - on
INSAT-2E only,
• IRS 1C/1D WiFS (Wide
Field Sensors) spatial
resolution of 188m and
a weekly repeat
coverage
• Advanced Very High
Resolution Radiometer
Data (AVHRR)
• Moderate-Resolution
Imaging Spectrometer
(MODIS) 1KMX1KM
• State wise Drought
Products (based upon
AVHRR & IRS WiFS
satellite Data)
IMD
Observatories
 Meteorological
Observatories (Manual &
Automated
 Agro-meteorological
Observatories - AgriMet
Pune (109/124 network)
Meteorological Data
Dissemination
 IMDPS transmits
processed INSAT imagery,
 Meteorological data and
 Fax weather charts to
IMD's field forecasting
offices across the country
using Meteorological Data
Dissemination (MDD)
facility.
 Synoptic bulletins of cloud
organization and coverage
IMD Agro-meteorological
Advisory Services Unit
 Short range forecast 12-24
hours
 Advisory Services for 2 to
3 days
 Agro meteorological
forecast over a week or 10
days (medium range) are
very important
 Weather Bulletin
Min. of Water
Resources
 Surface
Hydrological Data
 Reservoir Level
 River Monitoring
 Flood
Forecasting
 Ground Water Data
 Ground Water
Table
 Ground Water
Mapping
 Ground Water
recharge
analysis
Regional Drought
Center
 Regional Drought
Analysis
 Having own
network of
meteorological and
climatological data
capturing
 Agriculture
universities for Soil
Moisture Analysis
 Generate the
regional data
products and
weekly reports
Isolated effort on release of products for
drought monitoring, forecasting and
assessment

15. Processes in Drought Monitoring, Forecasting and Assessment
Data Collection &
Validation
Data Cleaning
(QC)
Local Area Impact
Assessment Groups/
Regional Climatologist/
Drought Impact Reporters
Observatories/ Remote Sensing Data
 Meteorological (Relational Data),
 Agro-meteorological (Relational data),
 Hydrological (Relational Data),
 Satellite Images (Image/Vector Data),
Drought
Information
Network
(Pull/Push
Publish/ Subscribe)
Data
Warehouse
Data
Analysis
Product
Generation
Third Party Reports/Bulletin
 Drought Reports
 Advisory Reports
 Weather Bulletin Board
Advisory
Services
Product
Verification
Data Types
 Structure Data
 Unstructured Data
 Image Data
 Vector Data
Data Analysis
 Statistical Analysis
 Interpolation/Extrapolation
 Spatial GIS Analysis
 Image Processing
Experts
 Agriculturist-Agronomist
 Hydrologists
 Meteorologist/Climatologist
 Remote Sensing & GIS Experts
Policies
Policies
 Drought Management
 Drought Relief
 Sustainable Mgmt. of Agril.
 Water Mgmt. Policies
Drought Impact
Assessment &
Quantification
Indices
 Meteorological Indices
 Hydrological Indices
 Agricultural Indices

16. Case Study I:
Local Water Governance
• Mahur village,
Maharashtra was
barren 20 years ago,
but is now a green
oasis
• There was an acute
shortage of water for
agriculture.
The barren land of Mahur

17. • A Pani Panchayat (water
council) established
• Contour bunds built
through to irrigate the fields
• Trees, fruit, crop planted on
the land
• Percolation tank
constructed to recharge
groundwater
Irrigation tank at Mahur

18. Equitable distribution of water
Irrigation water to be
distributed on a per capita
basis, for maximum of 5
individuals per family
1 person entitled to water
for half acre of land, water
share not linked to size of
land holdings Pani Panchayat in action

19. Case Study II:
Water Harvesting
• Tarun Bharat Sangh (NGO)
focused on management of
water resources.
• Constructed over 4000
water harvesting structures
(or johads) through
participation
Rajendra Singh of TBS addressing villagers
Rajendra Singh won the Magsaysay Award for community
leadership in 2001

20. The Arvari River case
• Arvari River in Rajasthan lay
dried due to drought for
decades
• A small johad constructed on
the river, making possible
throughout the year
• From not even one crop a
year, farmers started getting 2
crops a year
A view of the rebuilt Arvari River

21. Case: Check Dam Revival
• Nimbi village in Rajasthan,
lies in a sandy desert
• A 200-year old check dam
collapsed and led to total
dependence on rain water
• In 1994, two check dams
constructed. 25% of the cost
of the dams was borne by
the villagers.

22. Other traditional techniques…
• A kund or kundi looks like
an upturned cup nestling
in a saucer
• These structures harvest
rainwater for drinking
• Orissa: medicinal plants
support livelihood

23. Similar technology in other places…
• Karizes in Afghanistan
• Water systems in Pakistan
• Water tanks in Sri Lanka
• Stepwells and Baolis in
North India
• Khaatris in Himalayan
region
• Temple tanks in South
Asia

31. Linking Lessons with Policy Environment

32. Growing Concerns
• History of drought and famine
• IPCC indications - increasing droughts and floods
• Unpredictability is increasing
• More poor people are living in vulnerable areas
• Shifting patterns - floods in desert of Rajasthan and
drought in flood prone area of Assam
• Long-lasting impacts on livelihoods
• Distress migration leads to urban explosion
• High-tech options too expensive

33. Business Context Diagram for Drought Monitoring,
Forecasting & Impact Assessment
Department
of Transport
State Drought Monitoring
Cell, State Agril. Dept., State
Remote Sensing Authorities.
Regional Climatologist
Assessment Group
Global Drought
Monitoring, Forecasting
& Assessment
Advices, Policies, Impact
Assessments, Crop Watch,
Drought Programs, Agril-
Meteorological Data, etc.
Meteorological, Agro-meteorological
data,
indices, weather bulletin,
agro-meter. Advisories,
Medium Range Weather
Forecast, etc.
Reservoir Levels, Ground
Water Levels, Water
Resources Related
Policies, Advisories,
Drought Indices, etc.
Drought Monitoring at
regional level, network of
rainfall/ agro-meteorological
observatories, regional
advisories, etc.
Validation of Global
Products, Inputs on
drought impact,
economic losses,
regional/local
advisories, etc.
Information Services, Drought
Products, Weather Bulletins,
Agril. Advisory Services,
Policies, Drought Planning &
Mitigation Programs, etc.
IMD, National Center
for Medium Range
Weather Forecasting,
IRS 1C/1A Satellite Data,
VHRR, WiFS, Vegetation
Drought Indices, etc..
National Remote
Sensing Agency,
NNRMS, SAC
International Institutions -
NOAA, NASA, EROS, USGS,
USDA
Crop Weather Watch Group,
National Crop Forecast Group,
Min. of Agri; Indian Council of
Agril Research
CWC, CGWB,
Min. of Water
Resources
Local Area Impact
Assessment
Group/Drought Impact
Reporters
Farmers/Users/
Business
Users/ Drought
Response
Center
Drought Advices, Assist in
Policies Sharing, Drought
Research Programs, AVHRR,
MODIS, USGS Data for Drought
Monitoring
DRH

34. Field to Policy: Institutional Arrangement
Secretary
(Agriculture)
P.M.O. / NDMA
Agriculture Minister
Cabinet Secretariat
Crisis Management
Group
Drought Management
Division
Proposed National Centre for
Drought Monitoring and
Mitigation
Monitoring Action Research Training Policy
CWWG
Crop Weather Watch Group
ICAR
Indian Council of Agricultural Research
IMD
Indian Meteorological Division
NCMRWF
National Centre for Medium Range
Weather Forecast
CWC
Central Water Commission
DST
Department of Science and Technology
Affected and Prone States
Universities
Agricultural, Technical
Research Institutions:
IARI, CAZRI, ICRISAT, Kyoto University,
Oxford Brookes University, African Centre
for Disaster Studies
Social Studies:
Tata Institute for Social Sciences
Community Based (NGOs):
SEEDS, Rama Krishna Mission,
Development Alternatives
International NGOs:
Oxfam, AKDN, CARE
Bilateral/Multilateral Agencies:
UNDP, EC, UNISDR, UNFAO, World
Bank, ADB
IIPA: Indian Institute of Public
Administration
ATIs: Administrative Training Institutes
NIDM: National Institute for Disaster
Management
National Universities
Outreach programmes of agricultural
institutions and NGOs
NCERT: National Council for Education,
Research and Training
CBSE: Central Board of Secondary
Education
SPHERE India – NGO consortium for
disaster response
NDMA: National Disaster
Management Authority
Line Ministries: Home, Water
Resources, Civil Supplies, Health
and others
SAARC Centre for Disaster
Management
Planning Commission
UNDMT: United Nations Agencies
working in India, related to disaster
management

35. Thank You!