2. Welcome
We thank you for joining us and ask that if you have
questions during the presentation please submit those
directly to organizer on the right hand side of your screen.
The following presentation deck and webinar recording
will be available to you immediately following the
conclusion of this webinar.
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
3. Cynthia Corzo
Editor, Hispanic Market Weekly
Cynthia Corzo is editor of Hispanic Market Weekly. In this role,
she oversees all of the editorial content in both the weekly
newsletter and on www.hispanicmarketweekly.com. She joined
Hispanic Market Weekly in 2002 after 14 years at El Nuevo
Herald and The Miami Herald.
Corzo has successfully established solid relationships with
agencies, advertisers and media outlets active in the Hispanic
market, delivering for Hispanic Market Weekly a steady stream of
scoops, breaking news and solicited content.
4. Webinar Agenda
• The Power of The Latino Vote, Cesar M. Melgoza, Geoscape
• The Bilingual Electorate & Latino Outreach, Dr. Gary Segura,
Latino Decisions
• Inside Latino Voters and the Media, Pilar Marrero, La Opinión
• Q&A
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
6. 2012 and Beyond
The Power of the Latino Vote
Actionable insights for public service and business expansion
César M Melgoza
Founder & CEO
Geoscape
cmelgoza@geoscape.com
www.geoscape.com
1-888-211-9353
Access the New Mainstream
8. Latinos represented 56 percent of
America’s population growth
between 2000 and 2010 and grew
at 9x the rate of non-Latinos.
American Cultural Diversity
The Latino Growth Majority
28. 2012 and Beyond
The Power of the Latino Vote
Actionable insights for public service and business expansion
César M Melgoza
Founder & CEO
Geoscape
cmelgoza@geoscape.com
www.geoscape.com
1-888-211-9353
Access the New Mainstream
29. The Bilingual Electorate
• Since 2007, Latino Decisions has completed more than
10,000 interviews with Latino voters
• One trend is consistent over and over again: you must
engage Latinos in both English and Spanish to be
effective
• A third of registered voters are predominantly reliant on
Spanish Media
• Half of all citizens—and a majority of citizens not
registered—rely on Spanish media:
– Growing the Latino Electorate depends on bilingual appeals
www.latinodecisions.com
30. The Bilingual Electorate: TV
When you watch television, do you watch Spanish-
language stations more often, English-language
stations more often, or do you watch both equally?
June 2008 March 2010 Sep 10
Reg Non-Reg Citz All Citizens Reg
Spanish mostly 22% 43% 37% 29%
Both exactly equal 33% 41% 30% 32%
English mostly 45% 13% 32% 39%
Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, June 2008
Latino Decisions / NALEO, March 2010, national poll of citizen adults (all
eligible voters instead of just registered)
Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, September 2010, national poll
www.latinodecisions.com
31. The Bilingual Electorate: Radio
How about when you listen to the radio?
Reg Non-Reg Citz
Spanish mostly 32% 51%
Both exactly equal 24% 27%
English mostly 44% 12%
Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, June 2008
www.latinodecisions.com
32. Bilingual Electorate: News Reliability
There are a lot of different sources of news and
information. When it comes to news and information
about the election, which source do you trust the most
to deliver the best information?
June 2008 March ‘10 Sep ‗10
Reg Non-Reg Citz All Citizens Reg
Spanish news 31% 58% 49% 35%
Both exactly equal 19% 18% 12% 13%
English news 47% 22% 38% 48%
Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, June 2008
Latino Decisions / NALEO, March 2010, national poll of citizen adults (all eligible
voters instead of just registered)
Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, September 2010, national poll
www.latinodecisions.com
33. The Bilingual Electorate: Contact!
Political party‘s, candidates, and civic groups sometimes
send people postcards or flyers in the mail before the
election. Are you more likely to pay attention to these if
they are in Spanish, in English, or in Spanish and
English equally?
Nevada ‗08 National ‗10
Spanish 19% 20%
Bilingual/both 48% 40%
English 25% 32%
Latino Decisions / NALEO, September 2008 – Latino registered voters in Nevada
Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, September 2010 – national poll
www.latinodecisions.com
34. The Bilingual Electorate: Contact!
• Media strategies of both parties must include
English and Spanish outreach, and the message is
not always the same.
• Don‘t believe any polling of registered voters that
has less than 30% answering in Spanish.
• Exit polls, which typically have only 6-8% of
Hispanic interviews in Spanish, are particularly bad.
www.latinodecisions.com
35. 2012 Presidential Election:
A Question of Turnout, Population
Growth, Immigration, and
Outreach
www.latinodecisions.com
37. Latino Effect in 2008 and 2010
• In 2008, Latino voters were instrumental in several
states, sometimes with margins exceeding state
margin:
– Latinos likely decisive in New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada,
North Carolina, Indiana, and Florida:
– Yes, North Carolina and Indiana!
• In 2010, Latinos saved the day for:
– Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn
– Colorado Senator Michael Bennett
– Nevada Senator Harry Reid
• Failure to focus on Latinos costs Alex Sink the FL
gubernatorial election.
www.latinodecisions.com
38. Overlooked Power
• Latino political power in California, Texas and New
York is often overlooked because the states are not
competitive. But
– California is not competitive precisely because of the Latino electorate.
Absent Latinos, California elections are a virtual tie, and before Latino
mobilization around and after 1994 (Prop 187), California was a largely
GOP state in statewide elections.
– Latinos are the key to any future competitiveness in Texas. It is for this
reason that George W. Bush and, to a lesser extent, Rick Perry avoided
racially polarizing legislation that has appeared in California, Colorado,
Arizona and elsewhere.
– Latinos in New York are heavily Democratic and play a powerful role in
NYC politics, particularly Democratic primaries.
www.latinodecisions.com
39. Looking Forward to 2012
• Latinos will likely comprise approximately 9.5% of the
electorate in 2012.
• Latinos will be critical voices in shaping outcomes in
Southwestern swing states like Colorado, Nevada, and New
Mexico, as well as the ever-pivotal Florida.
• Even small Latino populations could be decisive in
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa.
• GOP strategists believe they must win 40% of the Latino vote
to prevail, prompting rumors of Marco Rubio or New Mexico
Governor Susana Martinez as the VP selection.
www.latinodecisions.com
40. Immigration Matters in 2012
• Don‘t listen if either campaign tells you Immigration is not the Latino voting
issue.
• Our June Poll showed that 53% of all LATINO REGISTERED VOTERS
count among their friends or family an undocumented immigrant.
• Many (25%) know someone facing immigration enforcement.
www.latinodecisions.com
41. Immigration Matters in 2012
• This affects the President‘s approval on the matter…
• Recent policy shifts must be understood against this background.
www.latinodecisions.com
42. Looking Forward to 2012
• So key issues among Latinos will be Jobs and
Immigration.
• Disappointment with the administration more likely to
result in abstention than switching.
• The President‘s chances with Latino voters will be driven
by three factors:
– The impact of recent efforts to ameliorate his immigration policy;
– The unemployment rate, and perceptions of efforts to improve
things; and most importantly
– What the GOP nominee says about Latinos and immigrants.
Republicans have long been among the most effective Democratic
turnout strategies.
www.latinodecisions.com
43. Latino Voters:
Who are
They?
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
56. Latinos and
The American Dream.
The Power of The Latino Vote
2012 and Beyond.
57. Thank you for joining
For questions on this webinar
Contact: jacquelynn.carrera@impremedia.com
www.impremedia.com www.latinodecisions.com www.geoscape.com www.hispanicmarketweekly.com http://politicals.entravision.com