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Prioritization methodology  development  and priority areas identification for Energy Efficiency cluster Skolkovo January 31, 2011
Contents   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Three main themes emerged from EE cluster priority areas determination   Themes Closing the gap with mature countries  ,[object Object],[object Object],Rationale  Example areas  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Enable participation in top global energy trends and innovation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Strengthening existing areas of competitive advantage  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
On the consumption side, compared to other developed countries, Russia is the most energy-intensive which creates large market for energy efficient technologies 0 Source: Rosstat; MED; BP Statistical Review of World Energy 0.23 Russia 1.39 China 1.14 Saudi Arabia 0.86 India 0.75 Canada 0.48 Brazil 0.40 US 0.32 Finland Japan 0.19 Germany 0.19 -65% 1 In 2005 prices Northern countries Energy intensity of the GDP in 2007 Tce per EUR thousands of the GDP 1
Russian energy market overview   2 Key sector observations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SOURCE: Ministry of Energy RF; MRSK Holding; FSK; Strategic Center North West Key sector observations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Russia’s generation and T&D efficiencies are below other countries benchmarks 1 9 5 11 6 11 6 13 6 17 10 177 459 93 462 363 Losses in the grids Electricity consumption  by power plants Japan EU-27 U.S. China Russia Source: IEA; Energy Strategy Institute of Russia Electric efficiency of thermal power plants Percent  Electricity losses as a share of total production Percent, 2008  Total losses TWh, 2008
For T&D efficiency improvement Russia is turning to "RAB"  (rate-of-return) regulation 0 Technical losses Com- mercial losses LV MV HV EU 7.3 0.4 3.7 1.8 1.4 Russia, potential inprove-ment 9.4 0.4 3.7 1.8 3.5 Russia, current 15.0 4.0 5.2 2.3 3.5 Source: IEA; OECD; RAO UES; Team analysis 1 No reliable data on T&D costs in Russia is available ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Losses in T&D Percent of final consumption, 2006 Situation
The four most energy intensive sectors account for 60% of the total final energy consumption in Russia 0 Source: Rosstat Final energy consumption 1 Mtce, 2007 Other Chemicals 70 Oil and gas Metals Residential Total 16 12 8 24 40 60% of total energy consumption ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Share of total energy use Percent 1 Net of losses A B C D
Methodology for prioritization of strategic directions for the Energy Efficiency cluster   SOURCE: Team analysis, Expert interviews Attractiveness Feasibility Criteria Criteria Weight,  % Rationale Rationale Weight,  % Industry R&D infrastruc-ture ,[object Object],25 Existing academic infrastruc-ture ,[object Object],25 Talent pool ,[object Object],25 Regulatory framework ,[object Object],15 Physical infrastruc-ture 10 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],6 6 ,[object Object],[object Object],6 6 Social and strategic importance ,[object Object],10 ,[object Object],State demand and support 15 Russia-specific requirements ,[object Object],5 R&D spend ,[object Object],20 Competitive Intensity ,[object Object],15 Synergy with other Skolkovo initiatives ,[object Object],5 Time to commercialize ,[object Object],6 Size of opportunity Relevance of opportunity Each potential strategic direction and priority area bucket  scored on scale of 0 to 4 for each criterion and then summed and ranked for total attractiveness and feasibility.  Attractiveness Russia base as a source of advantage  Global potential Current market size Global Russia Market growth until 2015 Global In Russia
Strategic directions prioritization matrix – Energy Efficiency    s SOURCE: Expert interviews, team analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],0 Feasibility 0.5 4.0 3.5 2.5 3.0 Attractiveness 0.5 4.0 3.5 2.5 Biocoal and fuel pellets Biogas Clean Coal Alternative car fuels 1.5 Gas turbines  Coal generation Coal gasification Wind energy Boilers Heat exchangers Plastic  windows Roofs and floor insulators LED Thermostats on  radiators Mineral insulation Façade paint Smart grid Frequency regulators Energy Storage 2.0 HV equipment Metering Superconductivity Consumer Applications Network management Solar  technologies 1.5 1.0 0 2.0 3.0 1.0 Sensors Generation Consumption Transmission I II III IV Associated priority areas detailed on next pages Approximate boundary of the area of focus Hydro turbines  Steam gas  plants  Hydrogen reactors  Green Central heating  Solar   panels APG Focus area
    SOURCE: Expert interviews, industry reports Short-list of priority areas of development of the energy efficient technologies cluster (1/2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Brief description Selection Rationale ,[object Object],[object Object],Transmission electricity Generation 2 1 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Area Transmission heat 3 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
    SOURCE: Expert interviews, industry reports Short-list of priority areas of development of the energy efficient technologies cluster (2/2) Brief description Selection Rationale Industrial energy efficiency Housing energy efficiency “ Green Energy” 4 5 6 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Area

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Ee cluster foresight short 110131

  • 1. Prioritization methodology development and priority areas identification for Energy Efficiency cluster Skolkovo January 31, 2011
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. On the consumption side, compared to other developed countries, Russia is the most energy-intensive which creates large market for energy efficient technologies 0 Source: Rosstat; MED; BP Statistical Review of World Energy 0.23 Russia 1.39 China 1.14 Saudi Arabia 0.86 India 0.75 Canada 0.48 Brazil 0.40 US 0.32 Finland Japan 0.19 Germany 0.19 -65% 1 In 2005 prices Northern countries Energy intensity of the GDP in 2007 Tce per EUR thousands of the GDP 1
  • 5.
  • 6. Russia’s generation and T&D efficiencies are below other countries benchmarks 1 9 5 11 6 11 6 13 6 17 10 177 459 93 462 363 Losses in the grids Electricity consumption by power plants Japan EU-27 U.S. China Russia Source: IEA; Energy Strategy Institute of Russia Electric efficiency of thermal power plants Percent Electricity losses as a share of total production Percent, 2008 Total losses TWh, 2008
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.