Templates and process for a half day signals sharing workshop for country teams working on the pilot ALICT course. http://gesci.org/african-leadership-in-ict-alict.html

1. step 1. DISCUSS THE 4 ALTERNATIVE
FUTURES AND EXTERNAL DRIVERS
step 3. DISCUSS IMPORTANT
INTERNAL TRENDS
1 hour
1 hour
1 hourstep 2. REVIEW SIGNALS AND PLACE
THEM IN SCENARIO ARCHETYPES
Familiarize the group with the scenario archetypes, then discus the
major external drivers that you see in each of the archetypes. Are
there others that are missing? Are there ones that are less relevant?
Looking beyond the trends within your pillar, what other internal
trends are influencing life in your country?
Before the workshop each team member will have to read through
all signals from your pillar and bring with them the 10 most impor-
tant or interesting ones. You will then review the most important
ones and discuss which alternative future the signal represents.
For this workshop you will need
◆ Pens
◆ Paper and tape (or large sticky notes)
◆ Wall space to hang paper
◆ Printed out templates for each member
◆ Print out of Alternative Futures document
◆ Review of (and collection of top 10) signals in
your pillar, see step 2, prior to attending
◆ 3 hours of uninterrupted time PLUS review
of each template and process guide prior to
workshop
AGENDA
© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.
For each step you will find a template, followed by a process page.
Use the template as your worksheet, and the process guide to facili-
tate your discussion.
This workshop is designed
to assist you in writing your
final report. It will give you
input for your report meth-
odology, scenarios, as well as
the findings and analysis.
Gather your country team members and begin collaborating on your country report!
ALICT HALF-DAY WORKSHOP
REVIEWING SIGNALS, ALTERNATIVE FUTURES, DRIVERS, AND TRENDS

2. The name of
your pillar
GROWTH COLLAPSE
DISCIPLINE TRANSFORMATION
Stories about
the Future!
Challenges! Policy Issues!
Who?
who is driving
this scenario?
How?
how is this scenario
coming to be?
Why?
why is this
happening?
What?
what is driving
this scenario?
The story
of
DISCOVERING YOUR DRIVERS
step
1 Use this Foresight tool to create alternative scenarios or
stories about the future that are based on four arche-
types: growth, collapse, discipline, and transformation.
© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.

3. Process Steps
◆ Refer to Alternative Futures Document.
◆ Go through each archetype one at a time. As
a group, come to understand what that world
of growth, collapse, discipline, and transfor-
mation looks like within your country. Who
and what is affected, and how?
◆ Write down each of the drivers mentioned in
the appropriate archetype box of the template
◆ Drivers are external forces affecting your
country without your control. (i.e. climate
change, Euro crisis, or changing immigration
patterns)
◆ In your group discuss any missing drivers, add
them to the appropriate box.
◆ Save these drivers for when you write your
own scenarios.
Current trends and condi-
tions continue to progress.
A core guiding value or
purpose is used to orga-
nize society and control
behavior.
A fundamental reorga-
nization of a society or
system that signals a break
from the past.
Major social systems and
infrastructure break down
or fail.
TRANSFORMATIONDISCIPLINE
COLLAPSEGROWTH
Work With Scenario Archetypes
ex: alternative education systems
ex: unreliable telecoms industry
ex: animal grazing limits
ex: decrasing cost of mobile data
DISCOVERING YOUR DRIVERS
step
1
© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.

4. The name of
your pillar
GROWTH COLLAPSE
DISCIPLINE TRANSFORMATION
Stories about
the Future!
Challenges! Policy Issues!
Who?
who is driving
this scenario?
How?
how is this scenario
coming to be?
Why?
why is this
happening?
What?
what is driving
this scenario?
The story
of
DISCOVERING YOUR SIGNALS
step
2 Use this Foresight tool to create alternative scenarios or
stories about the future that are based on four arche-
types: growth, collapse, discipline, and transformation.
© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.

5. SIGNALING GUIDE
Process Steps
◆ As a group, review your most important
signals directly related to your pillar.
◆ print each signal out on a separate piece of
paper.
◆ Collect one signal at a time from each partici-
pant and share it with the group. Hang signal
on the wall within the appropriate archetype.
Does this signal represent growth, collapse,
discipline, or transformation of your pillar?
◆ If someone else had a similar, or even the
exact same signal as the one just presented,
have them share it and then place it in the
appropriate archetype. If there is disagree-
ment over which archetype a signal belongs
in, come to an agreement.
◆ Once exercise is done, save the signals placed
in each archetype for when you write your
scenarios.
◆ Save these signals in your individual step 2 for
when you write your own scenarios.
Scan the Environment and
Identify Signals
Think about signals as the building
blocks of forecasts.
Signals represent early indicators of
change.
Signals can be an observation, piece of
data, or new business development.
Signals answer the question, “Where
do we see the future today?”
step
2
© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.

6. ◆ Emerging Trend
step
Use this Foresight tool to help you and your work-
ing group consider the 5 most important internal
trends. These will be important logical links within
your scenarios.
Where do we see the
future today?
◆ Emerging Trend
◆ Emerging Trend
◆ Emerging Trend
◆ Emerging Trend
3
© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.

7. Process Steps
◆ Individually take 5 minutes to silently write
down the most important internal trends.
One trend per piece of paper (i.e. unemploy-
ment, GDP growth, corruption… be sure to
consider Social, Technological, Economic, Envi-
ronmental, and Political trends)
◆ Begin with someone sharing a trend, and
then hang it on the wall.
◆ Ask if anyone has the same, or similar trend
(called a “build”). Have them share it and then
hang it next to the other trend.
◆ Once all builds are done, ask the next person
to share a trend. Repeat the previous step.
◆ Do this until all trends have been discussed
and placed in clusters. Name each cluster
with the overall theme.
◆ Narrow the clusters down to 5 most impor-
tant trends. Write them down in the trend
bubbles of the Trends of the Future template.
◆ Save the final trends for when you write your
scenarios.
Discover Important National Trends
Trends are national changes that have
been taking shape over time.
Trends can both mean “on the rise” and
“on the decline.”
Trends answer the question, what
forces are shaping the future?
Trends should be considered within
Social, Technological, Economic, Envi-
ronmental, and Political arenas.
PROCESS GUIDE
step
3
© 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.