Bart Minten POLICY SEMINAR Retail food prices at the country level and implications for food security How are rising food prices, further aggravated by the invasion of Ukraine, being transmitted at the country level? MAR 29, 2022 - 9:30 TO 11:00AM EDT

1. Myanmar
Bart Minten
Program leader, Myanmar country program
International Food Policy Research Institute
25/03/2022

2. Background Myanmar
▪ One of the poorest countries in South-East Asia
▪ Country’s economy hit hard over last year by twin crises:
1. covid-19
2. political turmoil
▪ 14.4 million people in humanitarian need (out of 55 million) (UN)
▪ Rice main staple: 1. About 60% of the calories of people
2. Half of cropland (in monsoon season)
▪ A rice exporting country

3. Rice prices
Over the last 12 months:
▪ Internationally: prices down (Thai
rice decrease of 19%)
▪ In Myanmar:
1/ Large increases at retail
(difference secure and conflict-
affected areas)
2/ Small increases at the farm level
3/ Increase in marketing costs (more
in secure areas)
0
5
10
15
20
Conflict-affected Secure National
%
Rice price changes (%)
Change 02/03-2022 versus 02/03-2021
Retail Farm

4. Fertilizer prices
▪ Biggest commercial input for farms
▪ Two years ago: 400 million usd imports;
prices now 3.3 times as much
▪ Most fertilizer for rice but farm prices
changed little -> less use of fertilizer
-> contraction rice (and ag.) sector
▪ If reduction of fertilizer to half its normal
level, agricultural output declines by 9-
12%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
1000
MMK/bag
of
urea
Local fertilizer prices
(approximate)