COVID-19 in India: Impacts on Production, Poverty & Food Systems

COVID-19 in India
Impacts on Production, Poverty & Food Systems
Financial support from
Disclaimer: The analysis presented in this slide deck are the IFPRI team’s own
and does not necessarily reflect the views of IFPRI
Barun Deb, Angga Pradesha and James Thurlow
International Food Policy Research Institute
Last updated: October 9, 2020
Contact: Angga Pradesha (a.pradesha@cigar.org) or Barun Deb (B.DebPal@cgiar.org)

Updated: August 25, 2020
Preview of Results1

Lockdown Imposes Heavy Economic Costs
• India’s GDP is estimated to have
fallen by 30% during the country’s
9-week lockdown
(compared to a no-COVID scenario)
• Food system is adversely affected
by falling consumer & export
demand
(agri-food GDP falls by 5%, despite exemptions
to the agriculture sector)
• National poverty rate increases by
22%-points during the lockdown
(295 million more people temporarily living
below the national poverty line)
Source: India SAM Multiplier Results
Economic impacts during 9-week
lockdown period
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
30.3
5.0
21.9
135.1
295.5
Percentage decline
in national GDP
Percentage decline
in agri-food system
GDP
Percentage point
increase in national
poverty rate
Decline in national
GDP in US$ billions
Increase in number
of poor people in
millions

Costs Likely to Persist Throughout 2020
• Economy is gradually reopening
& many restrictions are easing
• But economic losses remain,
even with a faster easing
(GDP may be 9-13% lower in 2020
compared to a no-COVID scenario)
• Average GDP & poverty rates
for 2020 hide sharp mid-year
deteriorations
(many people & businesses may require
government support to cope & recover)
Change in
quarterly
GDP
Change in
national
poverty rate
(National
poverty line)
Quarterly national impacts under faster
or slower recovery scenarios
-2%
-26%
-6%
-1%-2%
-30%
-16%
-5%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Faster recovery Slower recovery
1%
19%
4%
1%1%
21%
10%
3%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

COVID-19 Outbreak & Lockdown
Policies in India2

COVID-19 Cases & Policy Timeline
Data link
First coronavirus
cases identified
in the country
The Prime Minister ordered
a nationwide lockdown
restriction for 21 days
The government finally
decided to lift the
lockdown policy but still
banned any large
gatherings
The lockdown policy was
further extended by the
government until May 3
The Ministry of Home Affairs
and the Government of India
further extended the lockdown
policy
The Prime Minister
declared a COVID relief
package of INR 20
Trillion ($US 273 billion)All domestic and
international travel was
automatically suspended
Night curfews policy was
removed. Gym and Yoga
facilities allowed to open but,
schools still closed
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
25-Jan
30-Jan
4-Feb
9-Feb
14-Feb
19-Feb
24-Feb
29-Feb
5-Mar
10-Mar
15-Mar
20-Mar
25-Mar
30-Mar
4-Apr
9-Apr
14-Apr
19-Apr
24-Apr
29-Apr
4-May
9-May
14-May
19-May
24-May
29-May
3-Jun
8-Jun
13-Jun
18-Jun
23-Jun
28-Jun
3-Jul
8-Jul
13-Jul
18-Jul
23-Jul
28-Jul
2-Aug
7-Aug
12-Aug
17-Aug
22-Aug
27-Aug
1-Sep
6-Sep
11-Sep
16-Sep
21-Sep
26-Sep
1-Oct
6-Oct
Confirmednewcases
Confirmed daily new cases

Sectors Affected by Lockdown Policies (1)
Sector Lockdown restrictions or exemptions in targeted regions Directly Affected?
Agriculture
• Farming activities exempted (essential sector)
• Movement restrictions occurred just after planting for winter crops
• Limited extension visits to farms, suspended development projects
Minimal
Mining & crude oil • Extraction operations shut down Minimal
Manufacturing
• Food processing & medicines exempted (essential sectors)
• Movement restrictions affected many operations
• Nonfood producing companies closed
High
Utilities • Electricity & water distribution exempted (essential sector) Minimal
Construction • Construction projects/sites closed, including most public works High
Wholesale & retail
trade services
• Retailers of essential goods exempted, with limited trading times
• Social distancing restrictions affected market activity
High
Transportation,
storage & cargo
• Air travel closed; cargo/freight transport exempted (essential sector)
• Inter-district passenger transit closed
• Urban passenger transit reduced
High
Hotels & food
services
• Hotels, restaurant, cafés, bars closed apart from take-away foods
• Limited delivery options for food or other products
High

Sectors Affected by Lockdown Policies (2)
Banking, finance &
insurance
• Banks operating through digital platforms
• Other financial institutions closed or teleworking (e.g., insurance)
Minimal
Professional &
business services
• Almost all closed or teleworking (e.g., legal, accounting services)
• Activities involving in-person field visits affected (e.g., engineering)
Minimal
Public admin &
law enforcement
• Public services & agencies remain open, but most staff teleworking
• Police & security services exempted (essential)
Minimal
Education services
• All public schools closed without much scope for online delivery
• All private schools closed with some online materials
Some
Health services
• Health services exempted (essential)
• Elective operations reduced but rising number of COVID patients
Minimal
Sports &
entertainment
• Sports & outdoor entertainment banned
• Some activities operating (e.g., newspapers, radio & TV)
High
Other services
• In-person religious gatherings banned
• Informal repair firms limited due to movement restrictions
High

Global & Other Nationwide Shocks
Export demand
• Reduced international tourism & business travel
• Lower export demand for mineral exports
• Lower export demand for agricultural, other products
High
Remittances • Decline in value of remittances sent by nationals working abroad Some
Government
revenues
Nationwide
• Fall in tax revenues due to decline in economic activity
Some
See detailed sector-level assumptions about production &
demand shocks in Annex at the end of slide deck

Measuring Economic Impacts3

Economywide Multiplier Analysis
• Lockdown policies & shocks have direct impacts on the operation
of certain sectors
e.g., closing businesses, restricting travel, etc.
• But they also generate indirect impacts on other sectors involved
in supply chains
i.e., input suppliers & downstream users
• Multiplier analysis uses sector input-output data to measure
direct & indirect impacts throughout & across supply chains
Includes impacts on GDP, jobs & household incomes
• India model based on 2017/2018 social accounting matrix (SAM)
& Household Consumption Survey 2011-12 (68th round)
(results scaled to 2019 GDP & employment levels)

Economywide
Impacts
GDP | jobs
Incomes | poverty
Direct
impacts
Framework for Analyzing COVID-19
GlobalImpact Channels
(Due to partial or full lockdowns in other countries)
Indirect
impacts
DomesticImpact Channels
(Due to partial or full lockdowns in own country)
• Export demand
• Remittances & migration
• Foreign direct investments
• Agriculture
• Mining & crude oil
• Manufacturing
• Utilities (energy, water)
• Construction
• Whole & retail trade services
• Transportation, storage & cargo
• Hotels & food services
• Banking, finance & insurance
• Professional & business services
• Public administration & law enforcement
• Education services
• Health & social services
• Sports & entertainment
• Community & other services

Impact Channels & Shocks
• Lockdowns are simulated using a
range of impact channels
• Shocks to each channel are imposed on
the model & impacts are simultaneously
traced across all supply chains
• Multiplier model separates entire
India economy into 86 sectors
(Shocks imposed on final demand that
leads to the fall in production)
• Shocks estimated using:
• Community mobility data from Google
• Press Note on Estimates of GDP for Q1,
2020-2021 from Ministry of Statistics,
Government of India
Impact channels used to replicate lockdowns
1 Restrictions on farming
2 Closing mining operations
3 Closing non-essential manufacturing operations
4 Restrictions on energy and water supply
5 Restrictions on construction activities
6 Closing non-essential wholesale/retail trade
7 Transport/travel restrictions
8 Closing hotels, bars and restaurants
9 Closing non-essential business services
10 Government work-from-home orders
11 Closing all schools in the country
12 Restrictions on hospitals and clinics
13 Banning sports & other entertainment
14 Domestic workers & other services
15 Reduced export demand
16 Falling foreign remittances
17 Falling government revenues
×
×
×
×
×
× No direct losses via these channels in
India (e.g., exempted or no information)

Key Assumptions
• Lockdown period
• Government introduced national holiday for 9 consecutive weeks
(25 March to 31 May)
• 1-week lockdown period imposed in Q1 (January-March) while the
remaining 8-week imposed in Q2 (April-June)*
• Assumptions
• All shocks are imposed nationwide given the broad scope of the
government’s lockdown directive
• Shocks are weighted by importance of Q2-2020 for sectoral GDP
* January-March is the fourth quarters of the government’s fiscal year (April-March)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Total GDP Crude oil Crops Food processing Hotels & food services
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Scenarios
• Impacts during 9-week lockdown period (26 March to 30 May)
• Impacts throughout 2020 by quarter
• Compare a faster vs. slower easing of restrictions
1
3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Full lockdown
period
Easing of
restrictions in Q3
Final easing by
end of Q4
(possibly incomplete
recovery)
Easing
restrict-
ions
during
rest of
Q2
2
1
32

Economic Impacts During the
Lockdown Period4

GDP Losses During Lockdown
National GDP drops 30% during the 9-week lockdown
(most economic losses occur in the industry & services sectors)
Assumes restrictions are not expanded or reintroduced
Change in total GDP during
lockdown period (%)
Change in total GDP during
lockdown period (US$ bil.)
-30.3%
-0.7%
-42.0%
-31.4%
Total Agriculture Industry Services
-$135.1
-$0.4
-$54.2
-$80.5
Total Agriculture Industry Services

Sources of GDP Losses
Falling in construction activities & restrictions on non-essential
manufacturing activities account for half of national GDP losses
Contribution of lockdown restrictions & shocks to
loss in total GDP during lockdown (sums to 100%)
Large knock-on effects on
manufacturing sectors, such
as textile industries
Closing schools has modest
negative GDP impacts
Remittances is important for household
incomes & consumption spending,
which indirectly affects GDP
29.5%
20.6%
20.5%
15.5%
14.3%
3.1%
2.3%
2.1%
2.1%
0.9%
Limiting construction activities
Reduced export demand
Closing non-essential manufacturing operations
Closing non-essential wholesale/retail trade
Transport/travel restrictions
Domestic workers & other services
Banning sports & other entertainment
Closing all schools in the country
Closing hotels, bars and restaurants
Falling foreign remittances
Limited labor supply during lock down
largely affected construction activities
Fall in export due to disruption in
global market demand
Restriction on people movement
reduced transport/travel services

-5.0%
0.7%
-6.1%
-11.9%
-33.6%
Agri-food system
Agriculture
Agro-processing
Food trade and transport
Food services
Impacts on the Agri-Food System
The largest impact from lock-down policy mainly hit food services,
while food supply is exempt from most restrictions
(food services are directly affected by the closing of hotels, restaurants & bars)
Share of
total GDP in
2019 (%)
(26.8%)
(17.2%)
(1.8%)
(6.8%)
(1.0%)
Change in agri-food GDP
during lockdown period (%)
Change in agri-food GDP during the
9-week lockdown period (US$ bil.)
-$5.1
$0.4
-$0.5
-$3.5
-$1.5
Agri-food system
Agriculture
Agro-processing
Food trade and transport
Food services

Sources of Agri-Food System GDP Losses
Significant disruption on manufacturing and construction
activities created significant spillover impact to the food system
Contribution of lockdown restrictions & shocks to
loss in agri-food GDP during lockdown (sums to 100%)
Few agricultural exports directly
affected, but falling nonagricultural
exports reduces consumer incomes
& food demand
Falling remittances are also more
important for the food system
because households spend a large
share of their incomes on food
26.6%
23.6%
15.8%
13.5%
8.3%
7.1%
2.1%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
Closing non-essential manufacturing operations
Limiting construction activities
Reduced export demand
Closing hotels, bars and restaurants
Transport/travel restrictions
Closing non-essential wholesale/retail trade
Falling foreign remittances
Domestic workers & other services
Banning sports & other entertainment
Closing all schools in the country
Manufacturing and
construction activities are
worse affected reducing
household income and hence
food demand
Closing food services affected
overall food demand

Unpacking Agricultural GDP Impacts
Change in GDP during the lockdown (%)
Share of
agricultural GDP
in 2019 (%)
(14.4%)
(6.8%)
(3.7%)
(13.4%)
(3.5%)
(1.4%)
(12.5%)
(6.0%)
(24.3%)
(7.6%)
(6.4%)
Bumper harvest in Rabi season
increased mainly cereal production
Decline in investment spending &
construction activities reduces demand
for timber & wood products
Falling export demand hurts
export-oriented crops, like cotton
-1%
0%
4%
2%
2%
2%
1%
-1%
-4%
-1%
-1%
-1%
-3%
-3%
Agriculture
Crops
Cereals
Pulses & oilseeds
Root crops
Fruits & vegetables
Sugarcane
Beverage crops
Traditional export crops
Livestock
Meat & eggs
Dairy
Forestry
Fishing
Sluggish demand coupled with
disruption in transportation sector
caused reduction in fish supply

Unpacking Food Processing GDP Impacts
Change in GDP during the lockdown (%)
Declines in meat, fish, fruits & vegetables
driven by falling consumer demand with
implications for dietary quality
Combination of
Food processing
and Beverages &
tobacco share
make up 100%
(91.9%)
(6.3%)
(13.0%)
(3.6%)
(2.7%)
(3.9%)
(34.6%)
(2.3%)
(13.1%)
(12.4%)
(8.1%)
Demand reduction from restaurant and other
services activities generate negative spillover
effects on food processing industries.
Beverages & sugar refining badly affected by
closure of hotels and restaurants
-7%
-22%
-28%
-3%
-7%
-5%
-13%
-2%
-5%
-4%
-2%
Food processing
Meat
Fish
Dairy
Fruits & vegetables
Fats & oils
Cereal milling
Sugar refining
Coffee, tea, etc.
Other foods
Beverages & tobacco

Impacts on Household Incomes
Change in household incomes during lockdown (%)
All households experience large income losses
Larger income losses for higher-income households
(smaller losses for rural farm households because farming/food trade is exempt)
(but we do not consider how these households have savings &
assets that can help smooth income shocks)
-29%
-25%
-30%
-23%
-12%
-34% -33%
All households Quintiles 1-2 Quintiles 3-5 Rural Rural Farm Rural Nonfarm Urban

Poverty Impacts During the Lockdown
National poverty rate increases by 22%-points during the
lockdown period (≈ 295 mil. more poor people)
(poverty rate is the share of the population with
consumption spending below the national poverty line)
Increase in share of population living
in poverty during 9-week lockdowns
(%-points)
Increase in number of poor people
in India during 9-week lockdown
(mil.)
21.9%
21.8%
22.0%
National Rural Urban
295.5
210.5
84.9
National Rural Urban

5
Economic Impacts Under Fast & Slow
Easing of Restrictions & Recovery

Recent Data | Changing Mobility
Source: Google mobility data
People’s movements suggest a slow “return to normal” activities
(changes in mobility relative to Jan-Feb activity)
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Percentchangefromnormalactivity(JantomidFeb)
retail and
recreation
grocery and
pharmacy
parks
transit stations
workplaces
residential

Easing of Restrictions & Recovery
Predicting India’s “post-lockdown” period is challenging
Consider two stylized scenarios:
Faster easing: Economy rebounds strongly in Q3 & largely returns to normal by Dec 2020
Slower easing: Modest rebound in Q3 with productivity in Q4 still below pre-lockdown levels
Fast Recovery
(faster easing & recovery)
Slower Recovery
(gradual easing, slow recovery)
Q1
Jan
No lockdown restrictions or global shocks in this “pre-COVID-19” period
Feb
Mar
9-week lockdown (last week of March until end of May)
Global shocks start in late-March
Q2
Apr
May
Jun Losses reduced by 50% Losses reduced by 10%
Q3
Jul
Losses reduced by 90% Losses reduced by 50%Aug
Sep
Q4
Oct
Losses reduced by 99% Losses reduced by 90%Nov
Dec

GDP Impacts with Recovery Scenarios
Change in quarterly & annual GDP under two recovery scenarios
(changes are relative to a no-COVID growth scenario)
National GDP is 9-13% lower over 2020 as a result of COVID-19
(given pre-COVID-19 growth trends, India may well lose more than a year of growth)
-30.3%
-18.7%
-2.5%
-26.4%
-6.5%
-1.1%
-9.0%
-28.1%
-29.6%
-16.3%
-4.8%
-13.2%
April May-June Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Second quarter Quarterly averages Annual
Faster easing & recovery Slower easing & recovery

Cumulative Quarterly GDP Losses
Even with faster recovery, India ends 2020 with lower GDP
(GDP losses accumulate each quarter & will take time to recover to pre-COVID levels)
Cumulative changes in 2020 GDP from end of 2019
(pre-COVID expected growth rate for 2020 was 7.5 % according to IMF’s 2019 Economic Outlook)
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
End of
2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
US$billions
Pre-COVID expected growth
Lockdown + Faster easing & recovery
Lockdown + Slower easing & recovery

Poverty Impacts with Recovery Scenarios
Change in national poverty rate with fast or slow easing of restrictions
(changes are relative to a no-COVID growth scenario)
Poverty should stabilize by end-2020 as people return to
work, incomes recover & consumer demand resumes
(but this hides sharp spike in mid-year poverty, when many households living close to
the poverty line will require government or other support to cope
1.4%
18.5%
3.8%
0.6%
21.2%
10.2%
2.7%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarterly averages
Faster easing & recovery Slower easing & recovery

A
Detailed Assumptions About
Production & Demand Shocks

Channels, Shocks & Affected Sectors (1)
Type of restriction or
global shock
Major sectors
affected2
Geography
affected1
Size of shock Detailed subsectors affected by shock2
Direct restrictions on
farming
Agriculture
(A)
National 0% Crop/animal production, hunting, related service activities (D01); forestry, logging (D02);
fishing, aquaculture (D03)
Limiting mining
operations
Mining, quarrying
(B)
National 0% Coal, lignite (D5); crude petroleum, natural gas (D06); metal ores (D07); quarrying (D08);
mining support service activities (D09)
Closing non-essential
manufacturing
operations
Manufacturing
(C)
National -20% Food products (D10); beverages, tobacco (D11-12); coke, refined petroleum (D19);
pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemicals (D21); non-metallic minerals (D23); electromedical
equipment (G266)
National -50% Textiles, clothing, leather (D13-15); wood, paper, printing (D16-18); Chemicals, rubber,
plastics (D20-21)
National -45% Metals (D24-25); equipment, machinery (D26-28 excl. G266); vehicles, transport
equipment (D29-30); furniture (D31), other manufactures (D33)
Disruptions to energy
and water supply
Electricity, gas (D);
water supply (E)
National 0% Electricity, gas, steam supply (D35); water collection, treatment, supply (D36); sewerage,
waste collection/remediation (D37-39)
Limiting construction
activities
Construction
(F)
National -50% Construction of buildings (D41); civil engineering (D42); specialized construction activities
(D43)
trading activities
Wholesale/retail
trade (G)
National -50% Agricultural raw materials, live animals (G462); agricultural machinery, equipment,
supplies (C4653); food, beverages, tobacco, incl. stalls & markets (G463 G471-472 C4781)
National -50% Motor vehicle trade/repair (D45); wholesale trade (D46 excl. G462-463 C4653 C4663);
retail trade (D47 excl. G471-472 G47 C4781); construction materials, hardware, plumbing,
heating equipment (C4663); automotive fuels (G473)
Transport/travel
restrictions
Transportation,
storage (H)
National -50% Postal/courier activities (D53); Freight rail/road/air transport (C4912 C4923 G512);
transport via pipeline (G493); transport support (G522); warehousing/storage (G521)
National -50% Sea/coastal/inland water transport (C5011-5012 C5022); Urban/suburban
passenger/other land transport (C4911 C4921-4922)
National -50% Passenger air transport (G511)
Government work-from-
home orders
Public
administration,
defense (O)
National 0% Public administration, defense, compulsory social security (D84)
Closing hotels, bars and
restaurants
Accommodation,
food services (I)
National -30% Accommodation (D55); food/beverage service activities (D56)

Channels, Shocks & Affected Sectors (2)
Type of restriction or
global shock
Major sectors
affected2
Geography
affected1
Size of
shock
Detailed subsectors affected by shock2
business services
Information,
communication
(J); finance,
insurance (K); real
estate (L);
professional/
scientific/technica
l activities (M);
administrative/
support services
(N)
National -15% Publishing activities (D58); programming/broadcasting activities (D60);
telecommunications (D61); computer programming/consultancy activities (D62);
information service activities (D63); financial services, insurance, pension funding, auxiliary
services (D64-66); real estate activities (D68); security and investigation activities (D80);
accounting, bookkeeping, auditing, tax consultancy (G692); head offices, management
consultancy (D70); scientific research/development (D72); advertising, market research
(D73); other professional/scientific/technical activities (D74); legal activities (G692);
architectural/engineering activities (D71); veterinary activities (D75); motion
picture/video/television program production, etc. (D59); renting/leasing activities (D77);
employment activities (D78); travel agencies, tour operators (D79); building services,
landscape activities (D81); office administrative, office support, other business support
activities (D82)
Closing schools Education (P) National -10% Pre-primary and primary education (G851); secondary education (G852); higher education
(G853); other education (G854); educational support activities (G855)
Disruptions to hospitals
and clinics
Human health,
social work (Q)
National 0% Human health activities (D86); residential care activities (D87); social work activities
without accommodation (D88)
Banning sports & other
entertainment
Arts, recreation,
entertainment (R)
National -40% Creative/arts/entertainment activities (D90); libraries, archives, museums, other cultural
activities (D91); gambling, betting activities (D92); sports, amusement/recreation activities
(D93)
Domestic workers &
other services
Other service
activities (S);
households as
employers (T);
extraterritorial
organizations (U)
National -40% Membership organizations (D94); repairing computers & personal/household goods (D95);
other personal services (D96); domestic workers/personnel (D97); other production
activities of private households for own use (D98); extraterritorial organizations/bodies
(D99)
Note: (1) Channels, shocks, and affected sector in India are nationwide; (2) The magnitude of negative shocks on certain sectors is measured based on
daily people movement trend overtime according to their location collected by GOOGLE *. (3) numbers in parentheses are International Standard
Industrial Classification (ISIC Revision 4) codes (by major section with detailed subsectors, D is division, G is group and C is class).
*Source: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

COVID-19 in India: Impacts on Production, Poverty & Food Systems

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COVID-19 in India: Impacts on Production, Poverty & Food Systems