The State of Australia's fast-growing outer suburbs
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This document summarizes a presentation about the state of Australia's fast growing outer suburbs (FGOS). It notes that FGOS now account for 11.3% of Australia's GDP and their economies and populations are growing rapidly. However, FGOS still lag behind major cities in measures like the percentage of high-skilled jobs and residents with university degrees. The presentation argues that further investment is needed in FGOS to support skills development, build up local industry clusters, expand cultural and research institutions, and improve infrastructure in order to maximize their economic potential and productivity.
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The State of Australia's fast-growing outer suburbs
- 1. State of Australia’s Fast Growing Outer Suburbs Presented by Robert Hall NGAA National Congress – November 21 2017
- 2. 2 IS THIS THE RIGHT STORY?
- 4. Today’s presentation 1. Influencing the narrative 2. Why do the Fast Growing Outer Suburbs matter? 3. Why investment is required now 4. Four ways that FGOS can make cities great again 4
- 5. A story of transition and opportunity Economy (GRP) $186.8b 11.3% of Australia’s GDP in 2016. Up from 10.3% in 2006 Local Jobs 1.52m 12.8% of Australia’s employment in 2016. Up from 9.6% in 2006 Businesses Grew by 7.4% (2014-16) More than double national rate (Australia had 3.4%) Source: National Economics, ABS 5
- 6. Growth and diversity 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing Historical Population Growth, FGOS (enumerated population) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 Change in medium and high density dwellings, FGOS Australia's population is growing faster than in almost any other OECD economy (Lowe 2014) FGOS annual growth Aust annual growth 6
- 7. Job growth in the “suburbs have stalled” Huh, what? 9 of the top 25 job growth hot spots are Fast Growing Outer Suburb LGAs Change LGA No. % Sydney (C) 101,705 19.5% Melbourne (C) 49,170 10.5% Brisbane (Metropolitan area) 55,713 6.9% Perth (C) 28,076 17.1% Gold Coast (C) 21,336 8.9% Wyndham (C) 20,623 36.4% Hume (C) 20,223 21.3% Blacktown (C) 16,015 14.9% Belmont (C) 14,436 32.5% Bayside (C) 14,410 16.4% Swan (C) 11,938 19.7% Sunshine Coast (R) 10,974 9.9% Casey (C) 10,507 16.5% Parramatta (C) 10,254 6.6% Maribyrnong (C) 9,678 24.5% Adelaide (C) 9,438 7.0% Moreton Bay (R) 9,224 8.2% Wanneroo (C) 9,165 22.3% Cockburn (C) 8,744 23.3% Greater Dandenong (C) 8,678 8.4% Ryde (C) 8,324 9.4% Brimbank (C) 8,297 12.1% Whittlesea (C) 8,157 16.1% Randwick 7,896 15.5% Nedlands 7,834 35.2% Job growth by LGA 2011 to 2016 (top 25) Source: National Economics 7
- 8. From retail to research High skilled jobs in FGOS grew by 70,000 between 2011 and 2016 Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing. See data limitations about comparing 2011 and 2016 place of work data Date note: High skill is defined by the ABS Occupation definition – level 1 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Hospitality Admin Transport & Logisitcs Other Services Mfg. Const. Retail Real estate Mining Wholesale Arts & Rec Ag Govt Utilities Health Media & telco Fin services Ed & training Prof services High skill Low to medium skill Employment growth by industry by occupation skill type, FGOS, 2011-2016 8
- 9. The type of high skill jobs in the FGOS Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing Occupation Change School Teachers 10,183 Midwifery and Nursing Professionals 7,497 Construction, Distribution and Production Managers 4,352 Chief Executives, General Managers and Legislators 3,502 Medical Practitioners 3,391 Social and Welfare Professionals 3,305 Business Administration Managers 2,889 Health Therapy Professionals 2,608 Sales, Marketing and Public Relations Professionals 2,556 Accountants, Auditors and Company Secretaries 2,502 Engineering Professionals 2,476 Health Diagnostic and Promotion Professionals 2,160 Information and Organisation Professionals 2,136 Advertising, Public Relations and Sales Managers 1,972 Education, Health and Welfare Services Managers 1,963 Architects, Designers, Planners and Surveyors 1,672 Miscellaneous Education Professionals 1,639 Miscellaneous Specialist Managers 1,369 Business and Systems Analysts, and Programmers 1,337 ICT Managers 1,104 Financial Brokers and Dealers, and Investment Advisers 1,092 Natural and Physical Science Professionals 1,040 High Skill Occupations in FGOS – Largest growth 2011-16 9
- 10. Early stages of economic transition, but still a long way to go Share of high skill jobs FGOS 24% Metro 34% Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Metro - CBD LGA Metro - Elsewhere Metro - Fast Growing Outer Suburbs Regional Centres Share of high skill jobs by LGA typology, 2016 10
- 11. 11 WHY DO THE FAST GROWING OUTER SUBURBS MATTER? 2
- 12. Capital cities are driving Australia’s productivity Table: Employment change – Annual Average Growth % by part of Aust. 12 Capital cities have accounted for 90% of Australia’s employment growth between 2011-16 2006-11 2011-16 Capital City 2.4% 1.6% Metro - CBD LGA 3.4% 2.5% Metro - Elsewhere 1.9% 1.0% Metro - High Growth Fringe 3.3% 2.6% Regional Australia 1.8% 0.4% Regional Centres 2.0% 0.7% Peri-urban metropolitan 2.3% 0.4% Rural and Remote 1.2% -0.1% Australia 2.2% 1.2% Source: National Economics
- 13. Our cities need successful Fast Growing Outer Suburbs A doubling in city size is associated with a productivity increase of between 2 and 5% Source: Ahrend et al (2014) OECD 13 “There are some sorts of industry, even of the lowest kinds, which can be carried on no where but in a great town” Adam Smith 1776
- 15. “The broomstick in the road” Professor Phillip O’Neill, Job Slide Report, Western Sydney University -350,000 -300,000 -250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 WS Airport arrives Difference between jobs and employed residents, Greater Western Sydney Sources: Western Sydney University and .id NSW Transport Job Target Maintains 0.84 jobs per employed resident No change to historical employment growth p.a. 15
- 16. How do we remain productive? In 2016, there were 69 local jobs for every 100 workers living in the Fast Growing Outer Suburbs 16 Road congestion estimated at $15 billion per year. This is projected to increase to $53 billion per year by 2031 CEDA 2016
- 17. 17 Four ways Fast Growing Outer Suburbs can make cities great again 4
- 18. 1. Skills are the new iron ore 18
- 19. Increasingly dependent on ideas and problem solving Participation rate outcomes: 81% with a bachelor degree 50% if only completed year 10 Sources: RBA 19
- 20. Skill levels are improving, but still falling behind the national average Completed year 12 49.9%, up from 38.4% in 2016 University degree 15.6%, up from 7.8% in 2006 FGOS Australia 0 5 10 15 20 25 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Share of population with a bachelor degree or higher (aged 15+), 2016 Sources: ABS Census of Population and Housing To reach the national qualifications level, an extra 207,606 FGOS residents would have to have finished a degree. 20
- 21. Housing as an economic development strategy Just add Spring, Lake or Link to the estate name 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Bachelor or higher Advanced Diploma and Diploma Level Certificate Level No qualification Point Cook City of Wyndham Level of qualification, 2016 21 Sources: ABS Census of Population and Housing
- 22. Diverse cultures are driving skills growth and can create new business opportunities The average education level of newly arrived Australians in FGOS is significantly higher than the overall FGOS population. -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% Bachelor or higher Advanced Diploma and Diploma Level Certificate Level No qualification Overseas arrivals Total population Qualifications of recent arrivals, FGOS 2016 Sources: ABS Census of Population and Housing 22
- 23. Youth unemployment is a concern Youth unemployment in FGOS 15-19yo – 22.5% in 2016, up from 18% in 2011 20-24yo – 12.4% in 2016, up from 10% in 2006 Weak employment growth has impacted youth more than any other age group 23 Sources: ABS Census of Population and Housing
- 24. 2. Local Agglomeration – Increasing ideas per sqm 24
- 25. Exploit middle ring agglomerations Dandenong 66,000 jobs 25% high skill Monash 103,000 jobs 37% high skill Melb Airport 47,000 jobs 20% high skill Expanded CBD 342,000 jobs 50% high skill Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing Employment (POW) by SA2 25
- 26. Investing in productive infrastructure 83,000 Casey residents work in the Monash to Casey Corridor 11,000 Casey residents work in the Melbourne LGA 26
- 27. Local projects to increase ideas per square metre Case Study: Metro North West Source: .id 27
- 28. 3. Where is the culture? 28
- 29. Major gap in knowledge, health/research and cultural assets 29 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Hospital University Cultural Govt Fast Growing Outer Suburbs Greater Capital Cities Jobs per ‘000 population, 2016 Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing
- 30. Household size trends suggest we need to rethink this social infrastructure 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3 3.1 3.2 199119962001200620112016 FGOS Aust Household size 1991-2016 Local Government Area 2011 2016 Change City of Wyndham 2.90 3.03 0.13 City of Melton 2.96 3.02 0.06 Wollondilly Shire 2.94 2.99 0.05 City of Gosnells 2.76 2.81 0.05 City of Casey 3.01 3.06 0.05 Blacktown City 3.10 3.14 0.04 Liverpool City 3.15 3.20 0.04 The Hills Shire 3.10 3.15 0.04 Shire of Litchfield 2.75 2.79 0.04 Camden Council 3.03 3.07 0.04 City of Kwinana 2.63 2.67 0.03 City of Armadale 2.64 2.67 0.03 Shire of Serpentine- Jarrahdale 2.89 2.92 0.02 Shire of Cardinia 2.80 2.82 0.02 City of Hume 3.06 3.08 0.02 Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing 30
- 32. Infrastructure is not meeting economic and demographic demand FGOS contribution to Australia Population = 35% of growth Jobs: 25% of growth Infrastructure: 13% of investment 25.2% 34.8% 13.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Share of Jobs Growth Share of Pop Growth Share of Asset Growth Metro - Fast Growing Outer Suburbs Regional Centre Metro - elsewhere Metro CBD LGA* Chart: Share of national growth by selected indicators, 2011-16 Note: Metro CBD LGA excludes Brisbane When we exclude the FGOS from enjoying in the benefits of agglomeration we must be going backwards. Source: National Economics 32
- 33. 33 Concluding ideas Population Density Employment Density Regional Knowledge Networks: Placing a higher priority on investment that supports knowledge-based activities and collaboration
- 34. “There is no rule book for the next phase. But imagination and creativity will get us there” Paul Keating, CEDA Annual Dinner 2017 34
- 36. Questions and discussion What’s your story? Retail to research Skills are the new iron ore Increasing the ideas per square metre Where is the culture Knowledge intensive infrastructure 36