Riots: Understanding mindless criminality and the poverty impacts of violence. Jaideep Gupte, Research Fellow, Sussex Development Lecture 3 November 2011

1. RIOTS:
UNDERSTANDING „MINDLESS
CRIMINALITY‟ AND THE POVERTY
IMPACTS OF CIVIL VIOLENCE
JAIDEEP GUPTE, IDS

2. Two main points to take away from this
lecture:
•Why and how riots occur: Not „mindless‟ nor simply „organic‟
• There are clear spatial patterns; within–city variations
• Evidence shows an inverse relationship with the State – occur
in „vacuums‟.
• Impacts of riots: Range of impacts at different levels
• Obvious, short-term: Damages to life, property
• Longer-term: psychosocial impacts; recursive mechanisms
which perpetuate the violence.

3. Why and how riots occur?
What‟s civil about violence?
„Civil violence‟ – public acts of violence and
disorder directed either against the State or
between groups of people.
Rioting, public fights, stone pelting, damaging
public space and property, bottle/missile
throwing, looting, arson, tyre burning.

4. Why and how riots occur?
1863 New York 18th Cent. England
1771 Moscow 1844 Philadelphia Riots
1992 Mumbai 2011 London

5. Why and how riots occur?
Routine civil violence vs. flare-ups
Why look at the „routine‟?
- Arguable that it has more deep rooted causes and impacts
- Allows us to look at the long term, cyclical, factors
- Allows us to question whether there are similarities between flare-ups and
routine violence
- Some evidence that the two might be related phenomenon and can often
be traced back to a similar trajectory

6. Why and how riots occur?
How routine is routine?
120000
India
100000
80000
60000
Riots
40000
Murders
20000
Banditry
0
Source: Crime in India, Govt of India, various years

7. 500
0
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1950 (8)
1951
1952
1953 (1)
1954
1955 (2)
1956 (1)
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962 (4)
Maharashtra
1963 (1)
1964
1965 (3)
1966 (3)
1967 (2)
1968 (3)
1969 (3)
Killed
1970 (18)
1971
1972 (1)
1973(5)
1974 (7)
1975 (6)
Injured
1976
1977 (3)
1978 (3)
1979
1980 (7)
Varshney-Wilkinson 2004; Jaffrelot 1996; Others
1981 (5)
Arrested
1982 (12)
1983 (12)
1984 (9)
1985 (7)
(Number of riots in each year shown in brackets)
1986 (26)
1987 (15)
1988 (3)
1989 (5)
1990 (7)
1991 (1)
Hindu - Muslim riots in Maharastra - Killed, Injured, Arrested 1950-1995
1992 (10)
1993 (6)
1994
1995 (1)
Why and how riots occur?

8. Why and how riots occur?
Civil violence: interaction with State and society
- What do we know?
- Riots are borne out of Institutionalised Riot Systems: hierarchical
structures deep rooted within society. Paul Brass (Theft of an Idol) tells
us that the triggering of riots is not as spontaneous a phenomenon as it
might seem. „Riot Captains‟ direct teams of people specifically positioned
to instigate public fights.
- Riots are closely related with electoral cycles: Steven Wilkinson shows us
that when the incumbent government relies on votes from the „grievance
group‟, it prevents riots.
- Riots result out of a break down of civic engagement: Ashutosh
Varshney shows us a strong correlation between low levels of
institutionalised civic engagement (bowling alone) in cities and riots.
- Social friction is underpinned by horizontal inequalities (Francis
Stewart).

9. Why and how riots occur?
Civil violence: interaction with State and society
- What we don‟t know:
- How riots interact with non-elected State institutions
(Administrative, Punitive, Correctional).
1. Visibly represent state authority; punitive and correctional
functions directly confront disorder, and so share a close
interface
2. The state‟s redistributive functions are dependent on its
administrative bodies and so these are deeply connected with
social outcomes.
3. Non-elected state institutions, like urban planning
departments, significantly alter the public spaces in which civil
violence unfolds.

10. Why and how riots occur?
Evidence from Maharashtra
 307,731 km2
 112,372,972 people
 80.2% Hindu
 10.6% Muslim

11. Why and how riots occur?
Sampling: using voting booths
45 Survey sites Nandurbar
Dhule Amravati
Jalgaon/Jamod Nagpur Bhandara
Gondia
- ‘Voting booth zones‟ (groups of ~200 Jalgaon Wardha
Dhule City Akola
Khamgaon
households) chosen to match most recent Malegaon
Buldhana
violence (based on pre-interviewing; Nasik Washim
Buldhana City
AurangabadJalna Yavatmal Chandrapur
Digras
media reports; studies) Pusad
Gadchiroli
Thane
Hingoli
- Higher number of sites with fewer Thane/Bhiwandi Parbhani Nanded
Mumbai
Mumbai Ahmadnagar Nanded
HHs per site Bid
Pune
- Randomisation ensured incidence Raigadh
Latur
Osmanabad
and non-incidence sites Osmanabad
Solapur
- Takes into account: Satara
incidence, endemic, criminality, administ Ratnagiri
Sangli
rative divisions and geographic regions. Miraj
Ichalkaranji
Kolhapur
Sindhudurgh

12. Why and how riots occur?
Measuring space
Mandir; Masjid; Convent; Church; Cemetery-Muslim; Cemetery-
Hindu; Police; Municipal Office; Courts; Jail; Post Office; TV
Tower / Offices; Bus Stand; Health Facilities; Schools; College -
University; Market; Cinema; Library; Gym; Stadium; Fort; Statue;
Tower; Gate; Chowk; Swamp; Canal; Railway; River; Garden; Field;
Open Area; Lake; Hills / Mountains; Ground; Playground; Bridge

13. Why and how riots occur?
Measuring space
Aggregated Variable Spatial features
„Christian‟: Convent, Church
„Hindu‟: Mandir, Cemetery-Hindu
„Muslim‟ Masjid, Cemetery-Muslim
„Religious‟: All of the above
„State – Punitive‟: Police, Courts, Jail
„State – Administrative‟: Post-office, Municipal Office
„State – Services‟: Bus-stand, TV-tower
„State – Symbols‟ Stadium, Fort, Statue, Tower, Gate
„State‟ All of the above
„Social spaces‟: Market, Cinema, Library, Gym
„Educational facility‟: Schools, College, University
Chowks, Bridges, River, Canal, Railway, Lake,
„Bottlenecks‟ Hills/Mountains
Play ground, Ground, Open Area, Swamp, Garden,
„Gathering places‟ Field

14. Why and how riots occur?

15. Why and how riots occur?

16. Why and how riots occur?
Victims versus non-victims
Variable Obs Non-Victims Sites Victims Sites
All Sites 35 28.6 71.4
Religious - Hindu 33 27.3 72.7
Religious - Muslim 24 29.2 70.8
Religious - Christian 3 33.3 66.7
Religious - All 35 28.6 71.4
State - Punitive 14 28.6 71.4
State - Administrative 11 45.5 54.6
State - Services 6 33.3 66.7
State - Symbols 13 23.1 76.9
State - All 24 37.5 62.5
Social Spaces 20 25.0 75.0
Health Facilities 19 26.32 73.68
Educational
Facilities 23 30.4 69.6
Bottlenecks 31 29.0 71.0
Gathering Places 28 28.6 71.4

17. Why and how riots occur?
But who is a „victim‟?
“Acute”
Those were physically hurt or reported damages to financial or
physical assets
“Non-Acute”
Those who saw or said they experienced public violence, but
were not physically hurt or did not report damages to financial
or physical assets
Might also suggest two modalities of violence

18. Nearest neighbours
 HHS clustered around
roads, rivers, other features
 Non-acute victims randomly
dispersed
Evidence of „organic riots‟

20. Why and how riots occur?
Acute and non-acute victims
Ob
Variable Non-Victims Sites Non-Acute Victims Sites Acute Victims Sites
s
All Sites 35 28.6 31.4 40.0
Religious - Hindu 33 27.3 30.3 42.4
Religious - Muslim 24 29.2 29.2 41.7
Religious - Christian 3 33.3 33.3 33.3
Religious - All 35 28.6 31.4 40.0
State - Punitive 14 28.6 57.1 14.3
(Police) (13) (30.77) (61.54) (7.69)
State -
Administrative 11 45.5 36.4 18.2
State - Services 6 33.3 50.0 16.7
State - Symbols 13 23.1 46.2 30.8
State - All 24 37.5 41.7 20.8
Social Spaces 20 25.0 25.0 50.0
Health Facilities 19 26.32 31.58 42.11
Educational
Facilities 23 30.4 30.4 39.1
Bottlenecks 31 29.0 32.3 38.7

21. Why and how riots occur?
How about intensity of violence?
Ob Low- Medium High
Variable
s peaceful Intensity Intensity
All Sites 35 34.3 31.4 34.3
Non-Victims 35 34.3 31.4 34.3
Non-Acute Victims 25 24.0 28.0 48.0
Acute Victims 14 7.1 28.6 64.3
Religious - Hindu 33 33.3 30.3 36.4
Religious - Muslim 24 33.3 29.2 37.5
Religious - Christian 3 33.3 33.3 33.3
Religious - All 35 34.3 31.4 34.3
State - Punitive 14 28.6 57.1 14.3
State - Administrative 11 63.6 18.2 18.2
State - Services 6 66.7 0.0 33.3
State - Symbols 13 30.8 30.8 38.5
State - All 24 37.5 33.3 29.2
Social Spaces 20 25.0 30.0 45.0
Health Facilities 19 26.32 31.58 42.11
Educational
Facilities 23 34.8 26.1 39.1
Bottlenecks 31 35.5 35.5 29.0
Gathering Places 28 35.7 32.1 32.1

22. Why and how riots occur?
How about intensity of violence?
Ob Low- Medium High
Variable
s peaceful Intensity Intensity
Field 4 75.00 25.00 0.00
Market 12 16.67 33.33 50.00
Post Office 7 71.43 14.29 14.29

23. Why and how riots occur?
Making sense of the results
In sum, we find:
-Two types of victims/different modalities of violence
-Acute and non-acute
-When we look at these two groups differently, we find the
absence of non-elected State institutions, in particular the Punitive and
Administrative arms of the state to be a significant channel when
looking at highly violent neighbourhoods.
Both are evidence that this isn‟t „mindless criminality‟?

24. Impacts of routine civil violence
Is violence linear?

25. Impacts of riots?
Is violence linear?
Direct
ex-post impacts on:
policing health?
violence
violence education?
policing
not time sensitive;
no long term impacts
? lifechoices?
Violence causes?structural change.
?
It can not just be „turned off ‟…

26. Impacts of riots?
Collective bravado, individual guilt
We have developed sophisticated models to look at household
decision making behaviour, but the most telling are the individual
narratives of those who have perpetrated the violence.
• Incentives for physically perpetrating violence – „merit badge‟ to
access extralegal authority
• Individuals however also bear the burden of guilt
Both these are of profound importance in understanding teenage
angst.

27. Impacts of riots?
Emotive power of riots
In 2011 an advert was banned for fear of
provoking rioting in which country? What product was the ad for?
The UK Levi‟s Jeans

29. Sites with at
Sites with at least 1 Non-
least 1 Acute Acute Victim Sites without All
Variable Victim (1) (2) Victims (3) Sites
Reach of institutions
Know your local police constables or officers 12.70% 9.10% 8.20% 10.10%
Trust your local police 62.30% 57.90% 62.70% 60.90%
Feel threatened by local police 11.90% 12.20% 14.70% 12.90%
Feel safe in own house 99.00% 99.20% 98.70% 99.00%
Anyone else besides the police provide security (6) 50.00% 0.00% 0.00% 18.20%
Tried to meet the following people
MLA 2.90% 4.70% 4.70% 4.00%
MP 5.50% 6.20% 6.30% 6.00%
Corporator 20.50% 20.50% 20.10% 20.40%
Councillor/Sarpanch 1.30% 1.60% 0.60% 1.20%
Community leader 3.10% 3.10% 1.90% 2.80%
Religious leader 2.90% 2.60% 3.10% 2.80%
Caste leader 3.40% 1.80% 2.50% 2.60%
Teshildar 5.50% 4.20% 4.10% 4.60%
BDO/circle officer 1.80% 1.60% 0.90% 1.50%
Collector/ District Magistrate 1.00% 0.80% 0.90% 0.90%
Local Police 9.90% 6.80% 9.10% 8.50%
Owner of the house 83.60% 78.20% 81.20% 81.00%
Average years living here 19 17.3 17.5 17.9
Place where previously lived (7)
Always lived here 27.50% 26.00% 27.90% 27.10%
Elsewhere in the same ward 15.60% 20.50% 19.40% 18.50%
Elsewhere in Mumbai 24.90% 24.20% 23.80% 24.30%
In Maharashtra 30.60% 25.50% 21.90% 26.30%
In another state 1.30% 3.90% 6.90% 3.90%
In another country 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

30. Sites with at
Sites with at least 1 Non-
least 1 Acute Acute Victim Sites without All
Variable Victim (1) (2) Victims (3) Sites
Organizations
Political party 2.30% 1.80% 3.40% 2.50%
Trade union 0.00% 0.30% 0.30% 0.20%
Student organization 0.50% 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
Farmer organization 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cooperative 0.00% 0.30% 0.00% 0.10%
Sport/cultural organization 0.80% 0.80% 0.30% 0.60%
Gym 2.10% 1.60% 1.60% 1.70%
Women’s group 9.40% 3.90% 5.30% 6.20%
Local Mohallas committee 0.30% 0.30% 0.00% 0.20%
Caste Panchayat / Sabha / Associations 0.50% 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%
Religious organizations / sects/ group 1.30% 0.30% 1.60% 1.00%
Youth Organization 0.30% 0.30% 0.00% 0.20%
Other 0.50% 2.60% 1.60% 1.60%
Village redressial Commitee 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
None 84.70% 88.30% 85.90% 86.30%
Water availability (5)
24 hours a day of running water 12.70% 9.60% 12.20% 11.50%
Water taken from anywhere without payment 6.00% 7.30% 4.70% 6.10%
Other sources 81.30% 83.10% 83.10% 82.50%
Have an individual meter 86.20% 84.20% 86.20% 85.50%

31. Sites with at
Sites with at least 1 Non-
least 1 Acute Acute Victim Sites without All
Variable Victim (1) (2) Victims (3) Sites
Reasons to move here (8)
Voluntarily Resettled 31.90% 33.30% 27.40% 31.10%
Forcible eviction from previous residence 4.30% 4.20% 0.90% 3.30%
Marriage 45.50% 40.40% 53.50% 46.00%
Job seeking 9.70% 15.10% 9.60% 11.60%
Other 8.60% 7.00% 8.70% 8.10%
Events occurred in neighborhood in last 12 months
(at least 1 time)
Rioting 42.10% 17.90% 1.90% 21.80%
Stone pelting 34.80% 15.30% 3.10% 18.60%
Public fights 35.30% 19.70% 6.90% 21.50%
Bottle throwing 14.80% 3.60% 0.90% 6.80%
Tire burning 17.40% 5.20% 1.30% 8.40%
Damaging of bus or public property 14.30% 2.60% 0.60% 6.20%
Agitation related to a bandh 16.10% 6.20% 0.90% 8.20%
Violence during curfew 28.60% 10.90% 0.00% 14.00%
Police harassment 4.90% 2.90% 0.00% 2.80%

32. Sites with at
Sites with at least 1 Non-
least 1 Acute Acute Victim Sites without All
Variable Victim (1) (2) Victims (3) Sites
SITE CHARACTERISTICS
Number of Sites 16 16 13 45
Number of Households 385 385 319 1089
Communal Violence Clusters (District-Level)
Low 37.50% 43.80% 23.10% 35.60%
Medium 31.30% 31.30% 30.80% 31.10%
High 31.30% 25.00% 46.20% 33.30%
Communal Violence Incidence Sites 62.50% 75.00% 76.90% 71.10%
HOUSEHOLDS CHARACTERISTICS
Victims Categories
Acute Victims 8.10% 0.00% 0.00% 2.80%
Non-Acute Victims 21.00% 11.70% 0.00% 11.60%
Non Victims 70.90% 88.30% 100.00% 85.60%
Religion
Hindu 61.30% 54.30% 43.90% 53.70%
Muslim 31.40% 39.00% 49.20% 39.30%
Buddhist 6.20% 5.20% 6.00% 5.80%
Other (4) 1.00% 1.60% 0.90% 1.20%
Higher Education Level in HH
Illiterate 1.00% 1.60% 0.30% 1.00%
Literate but no formal education 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
School up to/ 4 years 2.10% 1.00% 1.90% 1.70%
School 5-9 years 16.90% 22.30% 25.10% 21.20%
SSC/HSC 41.80% 40.00% 39.80% 40.60%
Some college but not graduate 12.70% 10.60% 11.30% 11.60%
Graduate/post graduate-general 16.90% 18.40% 15.40% 17.00%
Graduate/post graduate- professional 8.60% 6.00% 6.30% 7.00%
Type of House
Thatch 2.30% 1.30% 1.60% 1.70%
Tin 8.10% 7.30% 4.10% 6.60%
Asbestos 7.80% 3.40% 7.20% 6.10%
Mixed materials 25.20% 33.00% 31.30% 29.80%
Bricks 15.30% 8.80% 10.70% 11.70%
Concrete 24.20% 36.90% 33.90% 31.50%
In a building 16.40% 8.80% 11.30% 12.20%
Wooden 0.80% 0.50% 0.00% 0.50%

33. Why and how riots occur?
Sampling:
- 5-6 start points and
varying skip patterns.
- Skip = n/#calls ≈ 4 or 5
- Right Hand Thumb Rule
- Careful counting
- No main roads
- Refusal rate maintained
- Total n = 1089
- Pre-selected in-depth
interviewing with 50
- Direct involvement with civil
violence
(perpetrate/victim/witness of
rioting, police brutality, stone
pelting, arson, etc)