Rainfed agriculture in India plays an important role in the livelihoods of many rural households in semi-arid regions. These households are highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate variability and change especially drought and heat stress. Government of India is investing and promoting different adaptation options to overcome the adverse impacts of climate variability in rainfed farming and to build household resilience through different programs. The adoption of one or two CSA technologies or practices may increase the crop yield or resource use efficiency but does not improve the overall farm household resilience to persistent climate variability or change e in the future. So under a multi-disciplinary project called AgMIP (http://www.agmip.org/), a location specific regional climate smart adaptation package (including biophysical, socio-economic and policy components) was developed through series of stakeholder consultation in the region and evaluated to understand the potential of the CSA package in the Kurnool district of Andhra Pradesh.

1. Climate change impacts and Adaptation strategies
to build the Resilience and farm household income
of rainfed farming systems in SAT India
S Nedumarana, Kadiyala M.D.Ma, Roberto Valdiviab, Sonali McDermidc, Srigiri
Srinivas Reddyd, Jyosthnaa Pa, Geethalakshmi Ve and Anthony Whitbreada
a International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru, Hyderabad, India
b Oregon State University, USA
c New York University, USA
d Social Outlook Consulting, Hyderabad
e College of Agriculture, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Madurai, Tamil Nadu
Special session on
“Resilience in Dryland Agri-food systems to achieve SDG targets for India”
26th Annual Conference of Agriculture Economics Research Association (India)
NDRI, Karnal, Haryana | 15-17 November 2018

2. Study regions in south Asia and major farming systems
Regional Integrated assessment: case study – Kurnool, AP,
India
• Characteristics of the regions
• Key results: Climate, crop and economic assessment
• Co-design and Development of RAPs with stakeholders
Summary and key messages
Overview

3. South Asia: Study regions and major farming
systems
Pakistan: Punjab
FS: Irrigated wheat-cotton
India: Karnal
FS: Irrigated rice-wheat;
livestock
India: Meerut
FS: Irrigated rice-wheat;
livestock
India: Kurnool
FS: Rainfed crop-livestock
‘Fallow-chickpea’
India: Trichy
FS: Rainfed maize and/or
irrigated rice systems

4. Rainfed agriculture plays an important role in the
livelihoods of rural households in SAT regions
Occupies about 55 % (86 M ha) of net sown area and
produce 40% of total food grain
Highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate
variability
Minimizing the risk and uncertainty is needed to
sustainably increase the food production
Increasing rainfed system productivity and climate
resilience
Introduction

5. Methodology - Structural Approach
Shahnila et al., 2016
Physiological
Agronomic
Crop Simulation
models
(process based)
Economic
models
(IAT, TOAMD)
Climate
Stresses
GCMs
Technology
adoption
Yields, farm
income, cash
flows

6. Core Questions
Source: http://www.agmip.org/

7. Region: Kurnool District, Andhra Pradesh, India
Farming system: Rainfed crop-livestock FS
80% cropped area under RF
Low rainfall zone (Avg. RF 760mm)
dominated by black cotton soil (vertisols)
facing labor scarcity
Major crops: Chickpea, Rice, Sorghum, Groundnut
cropping pattern: Fallow - Chickpea
Characteristic of the study region
Andhra Pradesh
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
Croppedarea
Kurnool Anantapur Prakasam YSR. Kadapa
Medak Mahbubnagar Nizamabad
in‘000ha

8. Data Source
SPIA HH survey data collected in 2011-12 crop
season
A representative sample of 1080 HHs from 90
villages of 7 districts in AP
Kurnool districts – 351 sample HHs
156 HHs with detailed input/output plot
level data
117 chickpea farms
46 sorghum farms
30 rice farms
Andhra Pradesh, India
Farm location in Kurnool district

9. Stratification of HHs in Kurnool District
Kurnool annual precipitation (mm) and chickpea crop distribution
1. Low rainfall with low potential region 2. Medium rainfall with high potential region

10. Variables Units Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
Household size Numbers 42 5.1 1.6 2.0 9.0
Total own land Ha 42 4.6 3.4 0.0 15.2
Total operated land Ha 42 6.1 3.2 1.6 15.2
Total livestock Unit Numbers 42 1.7 3.2 0.0 20.0
chickpea area Ha 42 3.6 2.1 0.8 8.4
chickpea yield Kg/ha 42 258.5 89.8 149.5 500.0
chickpea price Rs/kg 42 35.1 4.0 28.5 40.0
chickpea TVC Rs/ha 42 17754.0 4644.0 9525.0 31008.3
Legumes and Oilseeds area Ha 42 0.5 1.3 0.0 6.4
Legumes and Oilseeds TVC Rs 42 8786.0 25661.8 0.0 140330.0
Legumes and oilseeds NR Rs 42 10901.7 31413.8 0.0 174000.0
other crops area Ha 42 1.9 2.3 0.0 9.6
other crops TVC Rs 42 41290.7 51118.1 0.0 209725.0
Other crops NR Rs 42 69009.6 109105.3 0.0 515400.0
Livestock income Rs 42 13454.8 17347.2 0.0 60000.0
Non-agrl income Rs 42 66109.5 49873.9 4000.0 216000.0
Variables Units Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
Household size Numbers 69 5.3 2.1 2.0 11.0
Total own land Ha 69 5.4 4.0 0.4 16.6
Total operated land Ha 69 6.7 4.8 0.4 23.5
Total livestock Unit Numbers 69 2.0 2.5 0.0 14.1
chickpea area Ha 69 4.6 3.8 0.4 20.2
chickpea yield Kg/ha 69 1407.6 454.3 625.0 2573.1
chickpea price Rs/kg 69 38.5 6.2 25.0 50.0
chickpea TVC Rs/ha 69 27281.6 5263.6 11460.8 37419.3
Legumes and Oilseeds area Ha 69 0.4 1.0 0.0 5.6
Legumes and Oilseeds TVC Rs 69 9454.5 20776.3 0.0 108550.0
Legumes and oilseeds NR Rs 69 25887.9 68584.1 0.0 347090.0
other crops area Ha 69 1.7 1.9 0.0 9.6
other crops TVC Rs 69 69687.6 87155.6 0.0 400090.0
Other crops NR Rs 69 180926.0 248315.4 0.0 1046490.0
Livestock income Rs 69 127671.7 186803.4 0.0 880570.0
Non-agrl income Rs 69 130213.5 191499.6 0.0 883740.8
Strata1:Low Rainfall Region
05
101520
100 200 300 400 500
Chickpea Yield (Kg/ha)
Strata1_current climate
Distribution of Chickpea yield (kg/ha)
05
101520
NumberofHHs
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
Chickpea Net Returns (Rs/farm)
Strata1_current climate
Distribution of Chickpea Net Returns (Rs/farm)
Strata2:High Rainfall Region
05
1015
NumberofHHs
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Chickpea Yield (Kg/ha)
Strata2_current climate
Distribution of Chickpea yield (kg/ha)
0
10203040
NumberofHHs
0 200000 400000 600000
Chickpea Net Returns (Rs/farm)
Strata2_current climate
Distribution of Chickpea Net Returns (Rs/farm)

11. Sensitivity of current production systems to climate change
CLIMATE 2050s
• Temperature could increase up to 0.5 to 3°C
• Rainfall could increase by 6.4% to 37.8%
Climate
scenario
Low rainfall Medium and High rainfall
Mean CV (%) Mean CV (%)
Cool/wet 1.33 22.45 1.12 11.02
cool/dry 1.05 9.92 0.92 8.51
middle 0.83 6.49 0.69 6.66
hot/wet 0.95 9.27 0.76 6.12
hot/dry 0.88 8.25 0.74 6.86
Simulated Average relative chickpea yields in different climate scenarios
• Hot-dry scenario: chickpea yields are projected to decrease
due to heat and water stress
• Cool/wet and cool/dry: projected to have a positive impact on
chickpea yields

12. Aggregate farm household vulnerability, net economic
impacts, percent change in farm net returns, per-capita
income and poverty rate
GCM Strata Vulnerability
(%)
Net
economic
impact (%)
% change of current system in
climate change
Net farm
Returns
Per-capita
income
Poverty
rate
Hot-dry Low rainfall 68.2 -15.1 -20.5 -13.5 19.3
High and medium rainfall 67.6 -19.0 -25.0 -20.9 8.5
Aggregate farms 67.8 -18.1 -24.0 -18.2 14.7
cool-wet Low rainfall 34.5 13.8 18.8 12.4 -15.9
High and medium rainfall 47.2 2.8 3.9 3.2 -4.0
Aggregate farms 42.4 5.4 7.3 6.6 -10.9
• 68% farms are vulnerable in hot-dry scenario and 42% farms are vulnerable in cool-wet scenario
• Hot-dry scenario: 13% reduction in per-capita income, increase the poverty rate by 19% in low rainfall region
• Cold-wet scenario: 12% increase in per-capita income, decrease the poverty rate by 16% in low rainfall region

13. Components Key Drivers
Strata1: Low Rainfall region Starta2: High rainfall region
Biophysical  Short duration chickpea cultivar
 2 critical irrigation during the vegetative
and maturity stage of the crops
 Recommended level of fertilizer use (20
kg N)
 High yielding chickpea cultivar with higher
water use efficient traits (NBeG-3)
 Recommended level of fertilizer use (20
kg N)
Socio-
economic
 Reduced fertilizer cost (The average
fertilizer cost for chickpea in Kurnool is Rs.
4675/ha, which is 19% of the TVC. we
reduce the fertilizer cost to Rs. 1558/ha
for each survey farms
 Mechanical harvesting of chickpea
 Cultivation of new crop (foxtail millet) in
the kharif season instead of keeping the
land follow before cultivating chickpea.
We assumed 50% of chickpea area will be
cultivated by foxtail millet by the farmers
 Reduced fertilizer cost (The average
fertilizer cost of chickpea in Kurnool is Rs.
4675/ha, which is 19% of the TVC. we
reduce the fertilizer cost to Rs. 1558/ha
for each survey farms
 Mechanical harvesting of chickpea
 Cultivation of new crop (foxtail millet) in
the kharif season instead of keeping the
land follow before cultivating chickpea.
We assumed 50% of chickpea area will be
cultivated by foxtail millet by the farmers
‘Climate smart’ Adaptation Package
Meeting with Stakeholders for Adaptation

14. Strata 1: Low rainfall Strata 2: High rainfall
Base Adapted Base Adapted
Chickpea cropped area (ha) 4.0 4.0 5.2 5.2
chickpea Production (kg/farm) 3009 6392 7159 9025
chickpea TVC (Rs/farm) 71616 48590 143669 103403
Chickpea Net Returns (Rs/farm) 34638 175882 158457 253300
Foxtail millet area* (ha) 2.0 2.6
Foxtail millet production (Kg/farm) 2758 3654
Foxtail millet TVC (Rs/farm) 21757 28829
Foxtail millet Net Returns (Rs/farm) 22374 29647
Parameters of base and adapted system
Note: * 50% of the chickpea area will be cultivated with foxtail millet in the kharif season
Strata 1: Low rainfall(n=42 HHs) Strata 2: High rainfall (n=69 HHs)
Crop model Base Adapted* % change Base Adapted % change
DSSAT 744.9 1194.2 60.3 1347.0 1664.6 23.5
Simulated chickpea yields (Kg/ha) in current and adapted production system in different strata
Note: * Adapted system – New cultivars with recommended fertilizer and irrigation

15. Strata Adoption
rate (%)
Net Return per farm (Rs) Per capita Income (Rs) Poverty (%)
Without
adaptation
With
adaptation
Without
adaptation
With
adaptation
Without
adaptation
With
adaptation
Low rainfall
85.5 162206 322231 48842 83075 30.9 15.6
High and
medium
rainfall
75.7 286551.8 456872 74510 111762 22.8 14.1
Aggregate
farms 79.5 236882.0 380438 61676 92865 26.8 16.4
Adoption rate of new production system, net returns per farm, per capita
income and poverty rate under base and adapted system
• The predicted adoption rate of climate smart adaptation strategies would increase farm
household income in both strata 1 and 2 (doubled in low rainfall regions)
• Increase in per capita income of the households substantially reduce poverty rate (- 55%) of low
rainfall region

16. Developed regional (Andhra Pradesh) RAPs
Developed national (India) RAPs
Parameterized the Future farming systems using
Global Models projections (yield, prices, etc.)
Developed future adaptation strategies
Assessed the farm vulnerability and potential of
adaptation strategies in future world
Shared the results with stakeholders
Future Farming system and its adaptation
Co-designed and co-developed
with national and regional
level stakeholders

17. Representative Agriculture Pathways (RAPs), Andhra
Pradesh, India
RAP 4: Inclusive pathway towards
'Swarna' Andhra Pradesh (Green)
• successfully implementing National Mission on sustainable
agriculture coupled with reform in key sectors such as energy,
land and water
• The primary sector mission of the State has the holistic
approach including economic and ecological objectives to
enhance the productivity and incomes of the farm households
• Promote the adoption of resource efficient technologies and
practices for production and post-harvest handling
• Inclusive growth enabled by the improved access to financial
services for large number of smallholder farmers through
SHGs as well as other collective action based models such as
FPOs and cooperatives
• In general the state Government investment on public health,
education, skill development and rural infrastructure will
slow population growth rate and improve household welfare
RAP5: Unsustainable pathway towards
'Dead End' Andhra Pradesh (Grey)
• Increased population growth, growing demand for food and
fuel coupled with lower research and development
investment from the state government in developing resource
efficient and high yielding technologies will lead to over
exploitation of land and water resources
• Low adoption of productivity enhancing technologies due to
limited access to financial services
• Slow and ineffective reforms process in energy, water and
land lease leading to highly inequitable distribution of
resources
• Inadequate infrastructure and low skill levels in rural areas
lead to high post harvest loses and lower opportunities in
non- farm employment
• Low-investment on health and education in rural areas will
lead to migration of unskilled labor to urban areas increasing
poverty and nutrition insecurity

18. RAPs Key variables Direction Magnitude
Farm size Increase 10%
Household size Decrease 30%
Off-farm income Increase 60%
Herd size Decrease 10%
Access to formal credit Increase 30%
Minimum Support Price (MSP) Disappear 100%
Electricity subsidy
Decrease
70% - slow
disappear
Fertilizer subsidy Decrease 40%
Micro irrigation subsidy coverage Increase 50%
Fertilizer price Increase 25%
Irrigation efficiency Increase 40%
Mechanization Increase 30%
Crop Yields Increase 20-25%
New cultivars(improved) Increase 50%
Chickpea sorghum Rice Milk
Scenario Price Yield Price Yield Price Yield Price Yield
Without climate
change
1.21 2.25 1.39 1.65 1.10 1.21 1.21 3.04
With climate change 1.37 1.63 1.35 1.23
India Price and Yield trends from Global Economic model (IMPACT)
RAPs Key variables Direction Magnitude
Farm size Decrease 20%
Household size Increase 10%
Off-farm income Decrease 10%
Herd size Increase 20%
Access to formal credit Increase 15%
Minimum Support Price (MSP) Increase 10%
Electricity subsidy Decrease 15%
Fertilizer subsidy No Change No Change
Micro irrigation subsidy
coverage
Decrease 10%
Fertilizer price Increase 30%
Irrigation efficiency Decrease 20%
Mechanization Increase 10%
Crop Yields Increase 5%-10%
New cultivars(improved) Increase 10%
Chickpea sorghum Rice Milk
Scenario Price Yield Price Yield Price Yield Price Yield
Without climate
change
1.52 2.23 1.53 1.56 1.46 1.20 1.12 2.92
With climate change 1.79 1.82 1.97 1.14
India Price and Yield trends from Global Economic model (IMPACT)
Key Drivers of RAP4 and RAP5
RAP4: Green Road RAP5: Grey Road

19. Vulnerability of future farm households to climate change in 2050 by strata
• 47% negatively impacted by CC
• High rainfall region is more vulnerable than
Low rainfall region
• 43% negatively impacted by CC
• Low rainfall region is highly vulnerable to
Hot-Dry climate
High prices in RAP5 –
offsets climate change
impacts on yield

20. Change in poverty rate with adaptation in 2050 by strata
•65% benefit from adaptation packages
•Poverty reduction is high with adaptation
for Low rainfall region
•58% benefit from adaptation packages
•Poverty reduction is low with adaptation

21. Climate
• All climate models predict a
future with higher (warmer)
temperature in the Kurnool
district
• By 2050s the temperature could
increase from 0.5 to 3°C
• Future rainfall could increase by
6% to 40%
Impacts
• Cool-wet and cool-dry climate
scenarios have a positive
impact on chickpea yield
• Hot-dry and hot-wet climate
scenarios have a negative
impact on chickpea yield
• 62% of farms could be
vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change
• Per capita income decreases by
12% in the hot-dry climate
scenario
• 47% negatively impacted by
climate change in sustainable
pathway (Green road)
• 43% negatively impacted by
climate change in unsustainable
pathway (Grey road)
Adaptations
• An adaptation package
including a new chickpea
cultivar with drought tolerant
traits, sustainable water
management, improved
fertilizer application, and
increased mechanization and
new crop could benefit more
than 70% of farms
• 65% benefited from
adaptations in sustainable
pathway (Green road)
• 58% benefited from adaptation
in unsustainable pathway (Grey
road)
Key Messages to stakeholders

22. Thank You