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Umfragen und ihre Wirkung
Theorien, Befunde und Anforderungen an den
                               Journalismus
Gibt es nachweisbare
Effekte von Wahlumfragen
auf die Wahlbeteiligung
und/oder
Wahlentscheidung?
Definitionen
Wahlumfrage
Sonntagsfrage
Einfluss
Verhaltensmodifikation
  durch Rezeption von
        (evtl. gezielter)
           Information
                 (Kolbe 2006)
Effekte
Effekte
Enthaltung
Effekte
Enthaltung

Teilnahme
Effekte
Enthaltung      veränderte Stimmenabgabe

Teilnahme
Effekte
Enthaltung      veränderte Stimmenabgabe

Teilnahme       geteilte Stimmenabgabe
Effekte
Enthaltung      veränderte Stimmenabgabe

Teilnahme       geteilte Stimmenabgabe

                Bestärkung
theoretische Ansätze
Rational Choice
Sozialpsychologie
Hypothesen
Mobilisierung
Bequemlichkeit
Lethargie
Defätismus
Bandwagon
...und speziell in
   Deutschland...
Fallbeil-
  Effekt
Leihstimmen
Leihstimmen
Wahlberechtigte, die Wahlumfrageergebnisse verfolgen




                                                      81 %
                                        72 %

                           57 %


             35 %

17 %

1957         1965          1976         1983          1994
Wahlbeteiligung
               1949-2009
100,0 %


 90,0 %


 80,0 %


 70,0 %



      1949   1953   1957   1961   1965   1969   1972   1976   1980   1983   1987   1990   1994   1998   2002   2005   2009
Die Bundestagswahl
              2005
„Ein Debakel“ (SZ, 20.09.2005)




„Tiefschlag“ (Spiegel, 19.09.2005)
41,0
        38,5           38,5

                34,0




                                                               9,8
                                    8,1      8,5   8,7
                              7,0                        6,5
                                                                           3,0   3,9

  Union           SPD          Grüne         Linke.PDS     FDP             Sonstige



       Infratest dimap am 8.9.2005
       Amtliches Wahlergebnis am 7.10.2005                           Angaben in Prozent
Wasted vote
Wasted vote
Koalitionserwartungen
Wahlentscheidung
Momentum
Zweitstimmen-Swing
Zweitstimmen-Swing
   Erststimme FDP/Zweitstimme Union




                     63 %
           37 %


           2002
                     2005
Zweitstimmen-Swing
Zweitstimmen-Swing
  Erststimme Union/Zweitstimme FDP




                       15,6 %

        2,8 %
        2002
                       2005
Fazit
Defätismus       Bequemlichkeit

                        Bandwagon
         Let ha r gie




Mobilisierung                  Underdog
Defätismus    Bequemlichkeit

         Let ha r gie




Mobilisierung               Underdog
Defätismus    Bequemlichkeit

         Let ha r gie




Mobilisierung
Defätismus   Bequemlichkeit




Mobilisierung
Defätismus   Bequemlichkeit
Defätismus
?
?
Piktogramme: gerdarntz.org
Bilder: flickrcc.bluemountains.net
                                       Bildnachweis

                                      Bibliographie
Faas, Thorsten/Schmitt-Beck, Rüdiger (2007): Wahrnehmung und Wirkungen politischer Meinungsumfragen. Eine Exploration zur Bundestagswahl 2005.“ In: Frank
Brettschneider/Oskar Niedermayer/Bernhard Weßels (Hrsg.): „Die Bundestagswahl 2005. Analysen des Wahlkampfes und der Wahlergebnisse.“ Wiesbaden. S. 233-267.

Hategan, Christa: „Aktuelles - Konturen der Geschäftsinteressen: Wahlumfragen, Einflussnahmen und Wahlabsichten.“ In: Neue Gesellschaft - Frankfurter Hefte. Bd. 54
(2007), Heft 11, S. 15-18.

Huber, Sascha/Thomas Gschwend/Michael Meffert/Franz Urban Pappi. (2009): „Erwartungsbildung über den Wahlausgang und ihr Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung.”
In: Oscar W. Gabriel/Jürgen W. Falter/Bernhard Weßels (Hg.): „Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 2005.“ Wiesbaden. S. 561-584.

Hilmer, Richard (2009): „Vorwahlumfragen 2005 – ein Debakel? Ist der Ausgang von Wahlen noch vorhersagbar?“ In: Oscar W. Gabriel/Jürgen W. Falter/Bernhard
Weßels (Hg.): „Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 2005.“ Wiesbaden. S. 103-116.

Jandura, Olaf/Petersen, Thomas (2009): „Gibt es eine indirekte Wirkung von Wahlumfragen?“ In: Publizistik 4/2009; S. 485-497.

Kolbe, Andreas (2004/2006): „Sollte die Veröffentlichung von Wahlumfragen vor
Wahlen verboten werden? Blicke aus theoretischer und juristischer Sicht.“ http://www.nautilus-politikberatung.de/main/page.php?259 ; 4.1.2010.

- Ders. (2004/2006): „Wahlumfragen und ihr angeblicher Einfluss auf das Wahlverhalten.“ http://www.nautilus-politikberatung.de/main/page.php?259 ; 4.1.2010.

Plischke, Thomas/Rattinger, Hans (2009): „"Zittrige Wählerhand" oder invalides Messinstrument? Zur Plausibilität von Wahlprojektionen am Beispiel der
Bundestagswahl 2005.“ In: Oscar W. Gabriel/Jürgen W. Falter/Bernhard Weßels (Hg.): „Wahlen und Wähler. Analysen aus Anlass der Bundestagswahl 2005.“ Wiesbaden.
S. 484-509.

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