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Global trends in online education. Threats and Opportunities.

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Online learning trends. Global. About ICDE, International Council for Open and Distance Education. The Big Picture. Online and distance education is steadily increasing all over the world.The growth in higher education is massive. The change is dramatic.
MOOCs are peaking. Numbers of MOOCs. Innovation in Education. Example from US online 2014. Example from ECAR 2013. Analysis of driving forces. Analysis of Opportunities.
The small text, which you should read.

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Global trends in online education. Threats and Opportunities.

  1. 1. Global trends in distance and online education: threats and opportunities for providers Pretoria, 7 February 2014 Gard Titlestad Secretary General International Council For Open and Distance Education, ICDE
  2. 2. • The leading global membership organization for open, distance and online education • An NGO official partner of UNESCO, and shares that agency’s key aim – the attainment of quality education for all • ICDE believes that in pursuing education as a universal right, the needs of the learner must be central. • Members in all regions of the world 25 Years Support From Norway
  3. 3. The picture
  4. 4. The BIG Picture • Online and distance education is steadily increasing all over the world India Russia Africa South America Sweden The US Australia China
  5. 5. The BIG picture • The growth in higher education is massive
  6. 6. 400 Mill. students 2007 - 2030 EU/OECD projections the need for HE by 2030: 400 mill. 320 2030 2044
  7. 7. The BIG picture • The changes in higher education is dramatic
  8. 8. The BIG picture • MOOC took the world (?) with storm, peaked, and opened up for massive innovation in education
  9. 9. Wie bieden ze aan? Where? Numbers per February 2014 Coursera ”Learning Hubs”
  10. 10. Numbers per February 2014 http://openeducationeuropa.eu/en/european_scoreboard_moocs
  11. 11. The BIG picture • Online, Distance (ODL) and on Campus Learning are converging => Blended ODL Blended Campus • And as a result – an even more diverse higher education landscape……
  12. 12. The BIG picture • Three streams work in parallel: – Online becomes mature – and Internet/mobile: freedom from distance, mobile broadband: freedom from location – New methodologies, content and pedagogy – new opportunities for student supportive teaching – New knowledge about the brain and learning, new knowledge in neurosciences
  13. 13. The BIG picture • We are in the beginning (of the beginning) – example: mobile technology
  14. 14. We are in the beginning of the beginning State of Broadband Report 2013 www.broadbandcommission.org
  15. 15. We are in the beginning of the beginning African Undersea Cables nov. 2013 http://manypossibilities.net/african-undersea-cables/
  16. 16. And meet the challenges:
  17. 17. The Governments moves…..
  18. 18. IT application strategy The Chinese government has put forward the following strategies Industrial moderniza on Industrializa on IT applica on Agricultural moderniza on IT applica on(digi za on) Na onal defense moderniza on Urbaniza on na onal development Sci-tech moderniza on Agricultural moderniza on strategy original“ four moderniza ons” new“ four moderniza ons” Ref. Yang Zhijian, president Open University of China, ICDE world Conference, Tianjin, Kina 2013 (digi za on) is a
  19. 19. “Cloud-based” technology support model (Open, shared, quality and massive education resources and e-learning software ( Platform Services (Portal, CAS, Teaching, Managing, Support service, Research, etc.( Infrastructure Services (IDC, Computing and storage pools, high-speed network ( VPN Internet ISMS (Information security management system) IOMS (IT Operations Management system) Cloud Software & Education resource Services Mobile Internet … … Networks Satellite Network … … …… Terminals OUC Pad Cloud Desktop Cloud TV Cloud Phone Cloud Classroom
  20. 20. The CONCRETE example
  21. 21. January 2014
  22. 22. 2013 (ECAR)
  23. 23. Who take MOOC ? 2013 (ECAR)
  24. 24. MOOC or MOC Are MOOCs Really Open? MOOC or MOC? No, all rights reserved. Partial, CC BY-NC on some No, non-OER license. Yes, CC BY or CC BY-SA No, all rights reserved. Note: some institutions using CC anyway. Most MOOCs are open only in the sense of free enrollment. Paul Stacey, Associate Director of Global Learning, Creative Commons, Oktober 2013
  25. 25. The BIG trends
  26. 26. Trends, within the framwork of globalisation and internationalisation US quadruppling Cost Southern Europe…. Developing economies Automation Robots Sensors Technology 2020 – 80% connected Open Research Internet of things Open Data OER eScience eInfrrastructures Access Open Innovation Flexibility HE needs – 1 U a week Globalisation Societal needs Enabling economic growth Demographics Open Access Open knowledge Students needs and expectations Employability Lifelong ICT Habitus
  27. 27. The BIG change?
  28. 28. The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? About 47 per cent of total US employment is at risk. http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/view/1314 Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/rifbriefs/22.htm 37% of Danish jobs classified with high probability for being phased out http://www.kraka.org/artikler/computere_og_udskiftning_af_jobfunktioner Technology and jobs; Coming to an office near you http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21594298-effect-todays-technology-tomorrows-jobs-will-be-immenseand-no-country-ready The future of jobs; The onrushing wave http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-less
  29. 29. The BIGGER opportunities
  30. 30. ”For the first time in human history we have the tools to enable everyone to attain all the education they desire.” (Wiley, Green, & Soares, 2012) Dramatically bringing down the cost of education with OER: How open education resources unlock the door to free learning.
  31. 31. The next years • Open, distance, online and eLearning – enables: • • • • Equal, easy and affordable access Quality Higher education Better learning outcome Student success • And the threats? The other way around…..
  32. 32. The small TEXT
  33. 33. MOOC in an international perspective: New global agenda for innovation in higher education • 1) Goverment should provide a holistic, favorable framework for open and online learning and in line with the values of UNESCO. Intesive should be established for wanted direction. Dialogue with stakeholders, in particular HEI. Specific goals to be set. OER in line with the UNESCO declaration a part of the framework. • 2) Support and facilitation of Leadership for change to a more open and online education. Competencies to be build. • 3) Incentives and support for faculty and teachers change processes, competencies and working environment to acheive a more open and online education. • 4) Framework and methodologies that put the learner in the centre. • 5) Cooperation across institutions, and countries on content and platforms for a more open and online education, hereunder MOOC. • 6) Interoperability between solutions. • 7) Concrete goals and plans for research and innovation within the field, well anchored at the institutions concerned..
  34. 34. Dr Qian Tang, Assistant Director-General for Education, UNESCO (8/11/2013). It is necessary to repeat the confirmation of fundamental principles: • Education is – A fundamental human rights – A public good – A basis for man's attainment of peace, sustainable development, gender equality and responsible global citizenship – A key factor in reducing inequality and poverty. • And further: Imperative for Education for post 2015 agenda must be: – – – – – Equitable access to education for all and at all levels Quality of education and learning Fairness Gender equality Lifelong learning
  35. 35. Thank you! titlestad@icde.org www.icde.org