1. Connecting plug-in vehicles to green
electricity through consumer demand
Presented: December 10, 2013
Dr. Jonn Axsen, Simon Fraser University
EMRG
Energy and Materials
Research Group
Funded by:
BMW of North America, LLC
Natural Resources Canada
Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada

2. Huge variety among plug-in vehicles (PEV)
~800 km gasoline
20 km
Plug-in
Hybrid
(PHEV)
Toyota Prius PHV
~500 km gasoline
~56 km
Chevy Volt
~117 km electric range
Pure
Electric
(EV)
Nissan Leaf
~300km electric range
Tesla Roadster
Comparing Battery Sizes:
4 kWh
24 kWh
16 kWh
53 kWh

3. 3
PEV emissions greatly depend on the
source of electricity
450
Regular vehicles
EV
400
PHEV-40
350
PHEV-20
Driving
300
Carbon
Intensity250
Hybrid
(gCO2/ 200
mile)
150
100
Natural Gas
50
U.S.
Average
Canada
Today
0
0
200
Coal
400
600
800
1000
Electricity Carbon Intensity (gCO2/kWh)
Source: Axsen et al. (2011), Energy Policy

4. Questions I will explore today:
1. Do PEV buyers want “green electricity”?
2. Will PEV buyers give charging control to their
electric utility?
3. What are consumer motives?

5. Study 1: Green electricity with your PEV?
(US car buyers, n=1502)

6. Research Method
20-minute web-based survey
US new vehicle buyers, n = 1502
3 segments: buyers of conventional, hybrids and PEVs
Survey layout:
1. Game 1: PEV design
2. Game 2: Green-electricity design
3. Game 3: “Combined” design (PEV and Green-E)
4. Motivation assessment

7. Game 1: PEV design games
Respondents first select their next anticipated vehicle by type (CV or HEV)
and body size (compact, sedan, mid-sized or full SUV/truck).
Incremental price,
compared to base vehicle.
HEV: $780 to $1740
PHEV: $2090 to $7540
EVs: $2940 to $25,380
Example Screenshot from Survey

8. Game 1: Vehicle Designs
Hybrid and PHEVs are most popular.
% of
Sample
segment
60%
50%
40%
Plug-in
hybrid
30%
Hybrid (HEV)
20%
40 miles
10%
Conventional
vehicle
20 miles
10 miles
0%
CV
HEV
PHEV
Selected vehicle design
Electric
vehicle
200 miles
100 miles
EV
150
125

9. Game 2: Green Electricity design games
1) No green program: or current “green” program if already enrolled.
2) Monthly Green Program: ¢1.5 to 3/kWh
3) 2-Year Green Lease: ¢1.5 to 3 /kWh
4) Install residential solar: $20 to $102/month
Example Screenshot from Survey

10. Game 2: Green Electricity Designs
Lots of interest in monthly programs and home solar
50%
40%
% of 30%
Sample
Segment
20%
900 kWh
100% of home usage
60%
10%
0%
None
Current
Program
Monthly
Green
Program
540 kWh
20%
20%
100%
60%
180 kWh
2-year Green Install rooftop
Lease
solar
Electricity program selected

11. Game 3: Combining vehicle and electricity options
Example Screenshot from Survey

12. Game 3: Combining vehicle and electricity games
Hybrid buyers
100%
EV
80%
PHEV
HEV
60%
CV
40%
20%
0%
Game 1: PEV
Game 3: Mixed
Complements: The combination increases PEV demand by 23%

13. Study 2: Acceptance of utility controlled
charging
(Canada car buyers, n=1754)

14. Pairing renewables & PEVs
Many sources of renewables are intermittent so
the timing of electricity supply may not match
the timing of electricity demand.
Green Electricity Supply
PEV
Electricity Demand (load)
12am
12pm
11pm
14

15. Pairing renewables & PEVs
Many sources of renewables are intermittent so
the timing of electricity supply may not match
the timing of electricity demand.
Green Electricity Supply
PEV
Electricity Demand (load)
12am
12pm
11pm
15

16. Utility controlled charging (UCC)—Any situation
where the electric utility controls Plug-in Electric
Vehicle (PEV) charging in order to better utilize
intermittent renewable electricity sources.
16

17. The Sample
Total completes: 1754
The overall sample is generally representative of new car buyers:
Older, higher income, more highly educated, and more likely to own their own
home
17

18. Who are the “early mainstream?”
45%
36% = potential
35%
“early mainstream”
30%
PEV buyers
Percentage of Sample
40%
25%
64km
Electric Range
20%
15%
Further analysis uses only
10%
these respondents
5%
32km
240km
Electric range
200km
160km
120km
16km
0%
Conventional
n=1469
36% of total sample (n=530)
Hybrid
PHEV
EV
80km
18

19. Making Tradeoffs – Stated Preferences
Status
Quo
UCC
alternative 1
UCC
alternative 2
19

20. Latent-class discrete choice model:
3 different consumer perspectives
Class #1: Pro-Green (21% of sample)
–
–
–
–
Generally supports utility-controlled charging
Positive value for renewables
Strong pro-environmental values/attitudes
Younger, more educated
Class #2: Pro-Savings (41% of sample)
– Also supports utility-controlled charging
– Highly sensitive to savings on electrical bill
– Strong pro-environmental values/attitudes
Class #3: Anti-controlled charging (38% of sample)
– Negative perception of UCC
– Older, less educated
20

21. Comparing charging programs based on bill
savings vs. renewable uptake
Baseline
(No renewables,
no savings)
Pro-Green (21%)
Pro-Savings (41%)
Anti-UCC (38%)
All (100%)
20% bill savings
Pro-Green (21%)
Pro-Savings (41%)
Anti-UCC (38%)
All (100%)
Pro-Green (21%)
100% renewable
Pro-Savings (41%)
Anti-UCC (38%)
All (100%)
Pro-Green (21%)
20% savings
+
100% renewable
Pro-Savings (41%)
Anti-UCC (38%)
All (100%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
21
% of PEV market accepting UCC

22. Summary points
Lack of awareness: most consumers do not presently
think about the source of electricity for PEVs.
Green electricity can boost demand for PEVs: …when
green-electricity option is presented.
“Utility controlled charging” acceptable to half of
potential PEV buyers: support varies by green vs.
financial motivation (which links to consumer values
and lifestyle)
Variety of consumer motives: environmental
values, financial savings, new technology, trust and
privacy
22

23. Appendices

24. Guaranteed minimum charge (GMC)
200km – 100% or Full Charge
180 km Guaranteed Minimum Charge
180km – 90% Charge
The absolute minimal level of
charge that you would wake up
to on any given morning.
20km
20km – 10% of Charge
This area may have charge but it may not. This
will depend on the utility.
The larger the consumer allows this area to be
the more useful their vehicle can be to the
utility.
24

25. Preferences for electricity source when charging PEVs
How do you feel about using the following energy sources to produce electricity for
electric vehicles?
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
Natural Gas
Large Hydro
Run-of-river
Geothermal
Wind
Solar
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Percentage of Sample
n=530
25

26. How do they feel about UCC?
To what extent do you agree with the following statements about Utility Controlled Charging?
Utility controlled charging…
Negative Statement
Positive Statement
Will help the environment
Should be supported by the
government
Should be required for
all PEV owners
Will take control away from me
in a way that I would not like
Is an invasion of my privacy
-40%
n=530
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Percentage of Sample
60%
80%
26

27. Binary logistic regression helped to explain
respondent interest in “combined” product.
Controlling for numerous variables,
Respondents were more likely to combine a PEV and Greenelectricity design in Game 3 if they…
…are under 60 years of age.**
…live in a detached home.*
…recently bought an HEV or PEV.**
…engaged in technology-oriented lifestyle.**
…had stronger pro-environmental attitude (NEP scale).**
* Significant at 95% confidence level (p < 0.05)
** Significant at 99% confidence level (p < 0.01)

28. Method Overview:
The web-based survey instrument required 20-25 minutes to complete. The flow of
survey questions was customized based on respondent characteristics, including up to
three design games: (the survey also included many demographic and attitudinal questions not
depicted here.)
Has residential solar panels?
Yes
No
Segment: CVB, HEVB, PEVB?
Segment: CVB, HEVB, PEVB?
Select “base” vehicle for design games
Select “base” vehicle for design games
CV as base
Potential to upgrade to:
Game 1
HEV, PHEV or EV
HEV as base
Potential to upgrade to:
PHEV or EV
CV as base
Potential to upgrade to:
HEV, PHEV or EV
Assess potential to install home solar
Can have solar
Potential upgrades to:
Game 2 Green program/lease or solar
Game 3
No solar potential
Potential upgrades to:
Green program/lease
Options to combine vehicle and electricity program:
Vehicles: (CV), HEV, PHEV or EV
Electricity: current, green program, lease, (solar)
End of survey
HEV as base
Potential to upgrade to:
PHEV or EV

29. Game 1: PEV Design Games
Incremental prices for upgrades are based on technical literature.
•
•
All prices were framed as increments added to the “base” vehicle price (CV or HEV)
Incremental prices based on simple electric-drive price model:
–
–
•
Two price scenarios: “Higher” and “lower” battery prices
–
•
$/kWh was higher for batteries with higher power-energy ratio (W/Wh)
Incremental price includes battery, changes to engine, motor, charger, exhaust and wiring
“Higher” battery prices are double those in “lower” scenario
Base and incremental prices differ by “base” model: compact, sedan, mid-sized
SUV/truck or full-sized SUV/truck
–
Incremental prices higher for larger, heavier vehicles
Higher Price Game*
Compact
HEV
$1,080
PHEV-10 $2,710
PHEV-20 $3,160
PHEV-40 $4,070
EV-75
$5,940
EV-100
$7,570
EV-125
$9,200
EV-150
$10,820
EV-200
$14,070
Sedan
$1,290
$3,530
$4,060
$5,110
$6,920
$8,790
$10,670
$12,540
$16,290
Mid-SUV
$1,480
$4,120
$4,830
$6,240
$8,970
$11,490
$14,010
$16,530
$21,570
Full-SUV
$1,740
$5,050
$5,880
$7,540
$10,550
$13,510
$16,480
$19,450
$25,380
Lower Price Game*
Compact
HEV
$780
PHEV-10 $2,090
PHEV-20 $2,320
PHEV-40 $2,770
EV-75
$2,940
EV-100
$3,760
EV-125
$4,570
EV-150
$5,380
EV-200
$7,010
Sedan
$850
$2,600
$2,860
$3,380
$3,140
$4,080
$5,020
$5,960
$7,830
Mid-SUV
$920
$2,950
$3,300
$4,000
$4,010
$5,270
$6,530
$7,790
$10,310
Full-SUV
$1,000
$3,510
$3,920
$4,760
$4,500
$5,980
$7,460
$8,950
$11,910
*Price increases relative to the selected “base” vehicle. If respondent selects an HEV as the “base” vehicle, then
incremental prices are as shown, but less the HEV incremental price.

30. Game 2: Green Electricity Design Games
•
•
Each respondent’s assumed monthly household kWh demand was based on their U.S.
State of residence and housing type (detached, attached, apartment or mobile home)
Green electricity program and lease prices were based on two rates:
–
–
•
•
Higher price scenario: $0.03 per kWh covered by plan (20 to 100% of monthly kWh)
Lower price scenario: $0.015 per kWh
Residential solar only offered to respondents with solar potential (rooftop access, and
likely would have authority or permission to install)
Solar installation prices based on:
–
–
–
–
System size (180, 360, 540, 720 or 900 kWh per month)
Following economies of scale, $/watt was lower for larger systems (as detailed by IBNL, 2011)
Two price scenarios: Higher ($5.1 to $3.6/W) and lower ($3.6 to $2.5/W)—gov’t incentives included
Monthly finance rate based on 5%, 20-year rate
1. Monthly Program
Solar, wind, tidal, geothermal,
biomass, small hydro, or determined
by electric utility
Levels: 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% or 100%
of household electricity use
Price = $0.03/kWh
2. Two-Year Lease
Lease solar panels or wind
turbine (somewhere else)
3. Install Home Solar
Solar panels installed at home
Same as Monthly (#1)
Lower price scenario
Levels: 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% or 100%
of household electricity use
Price = $0.015/kWh
Same as Monthly (#1)
Savings on electric bill
None
None
180 kWh: $29/month ($5.1/W)
360 kWh: $58/month ($5.1/W)
540 kWh: $68/month ($4.0/W)
720 kWh: $86/month ($3.8/W)
900 kWh: $102/month ($3.6/W)
180 kWh: $20/month ($3.6/W)
360 kWh: $40/month ($3.6/W)
540 kWh: $48/month ($2.8/W)
720 kWh: $60/month ($2.7/W)
900 kWh: $71/month ($2.5/W)
Savings = (% solar) x Household bill
Source options
Higher price scenario

31. Summary of Results
Results from Game 1 (PEV designs):
–
–
–
–
–
Conventional vehicle buyers most frequently design HEVs (49%) or PHEVs (23-24%).
Hybrid buyers gravitate to HEVs (40-47%) or PHEVs (35 to 38%).
Pure EVs designed by 3-7% of conventional buyers, 7-12% of hybrid buyers.
Plug-in buyers gravitate to PEV designs (28% PHEV, 57% EV).
Respondents that already have “green electricity” are more likely to design PEV.
Results from Game 2 (Green Electricity designs):
–
–
–
Among conventional vehicle buyers, most design some form of green electricity: home
solar (23-27%), a green electricity program (18-22%) or lease (6-9%).
32-42% of conventional vehicle buyers prefer no green program.
Most hybrid and plug-in buyers either already own a home solar system (32-37%) or
design one (18-35%)
Results from Game 3 (Combined games):
–
–
31% of conventional buyers combined a PEV with a Green-E program, as did 53% of hybrid
buyers, and 86% of plug-in buyers.
Adding Green-E options increased overall demand for PEV designs among conventional
buyers (23%), hybrid buyers (20%), and PEV buyers (5%). (While the percent increase is
low for PEV buyers, it is from a very high base of over 80 percent.)
Consumer Motivations:
–
–
–
We observe a wide variety of motives across and within respondent segments, including
environment, cost, oil politics, renewable support and control of energy.
Conventional and hybrid buyers are more likely to be motived by cost savings.
PEV buyers more strongly motivated by technical interest and as well as environment.